LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Niam Yaraghi – Brookings) The proliferation of generative AI tools has led to increased use in AI-assisted decision making in healthcare. Generative AI offers a variety of potential healthcare functions, including routine information collection, diagnosis, and even treatment. To access the benefits of generative AI for healthcare while mitigating the risks, policymakers should prioritize transparency and protection of informed consent, as well as use health information exchanges to break data monopolies
Generative AI in health care: Opportunities, challenges, and policy | Brookings
Balkans
(Atlantic Council) As 2024 dawns, the Balkans cling to a fragile dream: EU membership. But the region and the Union itself are afflicted by internal shocks. From simmering protests in Serbia to looming threats and economic storms, the region is bracing for a year of turmoil. Will they emerge resilient? Ilva Tare and Ivan Krastev discuss it
Cybersecurity
1 – (Alessandro Mascellino – Infosecurity Magazine) 82% of companies reported a growing gap between security exposures and their ability to manage them. The data comes from XM Cyber’s 2024 State of Security Posture Report, released on January 9, 2024, which offers insights from a survey of 300 Chief Information Security Officers and security decision makers at leading US and UK organizations
2 – (Edward Graham – Defense One) Addressing cyber threats to critical U.S. space capabilities, including satellites and missile warning systems, will require even closer collaboration with U.S. Cyber Command, a senior Space Force official said Friday
How Space Force is raising its cyber defenses – Defense One
3 – (Eduard Kovacs – Security Week) The volume of cybersecurity transactions increased in 2023 compared to the previous year, but the total amount of funding secured by companies decreased significantly, according to cybersecurity recruitment firm Pinpoint Search Group
Cybersecurity Funding Dropped 40% in 2023: Analysis – SecurityWeek
4 – (Matt Honea – Security Week) While technology has radically innovated and become more complex, many of the fundamental principles of cyber incident response remain exactly the same
Continuity in Chaos: Applying Time-Tested Incident Response to Modern Cybersecurity – SecurityWeek
5 – (James Coker – Infosecurity Magazine) According to research by Arctic Wolf, less than 4% of US states are prepared to handle cybersecurity incidents. The survey of state and local government leaders in the United States found that 14.3% of states were “not at all prepared” to deal with such incidents, with 42.9% only “somewhat prepared” ahead of the 2024 US election cycle, which includes presidential elections and other state and local elections. Additionally, the research found that 16.1% of cities were not at all prepared and 41.1% were only partially prepared for cyber threats. Only 3.6% of city officials surveyed said their city was fully prepared. The researchers noted that the growth of AI technologies, particularly large language models such as ChatGPT and deepfakes, are expected to be used by threat actors to develop more sophisticated disinformation and phishing campaigns in the 2024 election cycle
6 – (Beth Maundrill – Infosecurity Magazine) The latest Global Risks Report 2024 from the World Economic Forum highlighted the growing wave of cyber threats and places disinformation as the most serious risk globally. The Report raised the alarm about low-cost criminal havens and issues relating to the concentration of artificial intelligence power in the hands of a few
Digital Perspectives
(George Ingram, Priya Vora – Brookings) Last month, India passed the baton of the G20 presidency to Brazil, following a record year in which it increased the importance of digital public infrastructure (DPI). Brazil’s presidency is an opportunity to ensure that digital technology and data sharing effectively meet the needs of the Global South. The G20 serves as a place to develop commitment and consensus between the leaders of the most economically powerful countries that control the majority of digital technology and the leaders of the major economies of the South. The development and sustainability of the DPI also requires commitment and involvement, as well as governments, of the private sector and civil society organizations, which are represented in the G20 and the T20 working groups
Brazil’s G20 opportunity: A consensus on digital data | Brookings
European Union
(Judy Dempsey – Carnegie Europe) In an election year, the EU, in a context of growing populism, must create a common perception of the threat and strengthen support for Ukraine
Georgia – European Union
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) On December 14, 2023, the European Union granted Georgia official candidate status. The decision will presumably have a significant impact on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. The Georgian Dream government announced in an action plan presented on December 25 that it hopes to open a dialogue with Brussels on official membership within a year
Some Neighbors Look at Georgia’s Europeanization With Hope, Others With Suspicion – Jamestown
Global Perspectives
1 – (Stimson Center) Each month, the Global South in the World Order Project convenes a meeting of experts from the Global South to discuss international relations from their points of view and introduce non-Western perspectives
Moving From Unequal to Win-Win Partnerships • Stimson Center
2 – (Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning – Stimson Center) Persistent conflict in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, the consequences of climate change, and emerging technologies may pose heightened risks this year
Top Ten Global Risks for 2024 • Stimson Center
Near East
1 – (Alex Mills – Atlantic Council) Over 80% of international trade is transported by sea and, as the current situation in the Red Sea demonstrates, disruptions to shipping routes can have far-reaching effects. As disruptions continue, companies will face challenges such as rising insurance costs, decreased ship safety and broader ESG impacts, among others
The long shadow of the Red Sea shipping disruption – Atlantic Council
2 – (Fabian Hinz – International Institute for Strategic Studies) In the space of a few years, Houthi rebels in Yemen have amassed a highly diverse array of anti-ship weapons, incorporating both cruise and ballistic missiles, which they have recently used to threaten shipping in the Red Sea. The critical role that Iran has played in this buildup raises broader questions about Tehran’s regional strategy
Houthi anti-ship missile systems: getting better all the time (iiss.org)
3 – (Ahmed Aboudouh – Chatham House) Since December 15, 2023, the benchmark Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which measures rates for transporting goods imported from China, has risen 161%, from $1,029 to $2,694, as ships embark the longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Houthis and the attacks in the Red Sea. China has expressed concern about regional instability in the United Nations Security Council, but has distanced itself from the US and its allies’ narrow framing of the escalation as exclusively a freedom of navigation crisis. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, interpreted the situation as a direct spillover effect of Israel’s war in Gaza and stressed that any US-led military response could further deteriorate stability in Yemen and the larger region
4 – (Sam Cranny-Evans, Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI) Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Middle East have been rudimentary, despite using theoretically advanced weaponry. However, it may prove difficult for the West to effectively degrade Houthi capabilities
Papua New Guinea
(Maholopa Laveil – East Asia Forum) In 2023, there is growing recognition of Papua New Guinea’s growing geostrategic importance in the region. The country has signed a defense cooperation agreement with the United States and a security agreement with Australia, to counter China’s growing military presence in the Pacific. The 18-month period following the election during which votes of no confidence are prohibited will expire in February 2024. No candidate has currently emerged to replace Prime Minister James Marape
Political uncertainty puts PNG’s progress at risk in 2024 | East Asia Forum
Philippines
(Ronald U Mendoza – East Asia Forum) The Philippines aspires to achieve the status of a middle-to-high income country. The Philippine economy grew 5.7% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund recently reported that the country’s economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, despite disrupted supply chains, inflationary pressures and the slowdown in tourism revenues
Philippine economic recovery in a rebalancing world | East Asia Forum
Russia
1 – (Boris Bondarev – The Jamestown Foundation) On December 28, 2023, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti conducted an interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (Ministry of International Affairs of the Russian Federation, December 28, 2023). The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the broader context of global politics have brought into focus the need for a thorough reassessment of the West’s understanding of and response to Russian actions and strategies. Analysis of Lavrov’s recent statements provides critical insights into Russia’s intended goals and perceived strengths. These insights reveal the need for the West to recalibrate its approach towards Russia and counter Moscow’s aggressive revisionist narrative
Lavrov Asserts Russian Success Among ‘Global Majority’ – Jamestown
2 – (Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) In December 2023, independent journalists and human rights activists prepared a forecast of what awaits Russia in the near future. According to participants of the “Network Freedoms” project, Russian citizens should expect total censorship on the Internet. According to human rights activists, instead of YouTube and Telegram, the country will introduce an analogue of the Chinese service WeChat, and access to the network will be possible only with a Russian passport and special visa. The State will monitor all user activity on the Internet. The repression against Russian citizens who have left the country will only increase. Exit visas may be introduced for those wishing to leave, as happened in the Soviet Union
The New Year Brings Greater Censorship and Repression in Russia – Jamestown
3 – (Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow continues to maintain that it has more than fully compensated for the loss of access to oil and natural gas markets in the West due to sanctions by expanding sales to China, India and other Eastern countries (Politicheskiy Kaleidoskop, January 1). Closer examination, however, suggests that the Kremlin has not even come close to making up for these losses. Moscow does not have the resources to quickly build pipelines or additional ships to transport oil and gas supplies. Russia’s new customers, sensing the country’s difficulties, ask for discounts and other deals that reduce profits. In the case of gas pipelines, transit countries are demanding increasingly higher tariffs from Russian companies
Despite Moscow’s Bravado, Russia Faces Mounting Problems With Oil and Gas Exports – Jamestown
Russia – Arctic
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) At the end of December 2023, foreign investors for the Russian Arctic LNG-2 project expressed their intention to withdraw from the initiative (Kommersant.ru, December 25, 2023). The development project on the Gydan Peninsula was designed to transform Russia into a global exporter of liquefied natural gas, increasing its share from 8 to 20% between 2030 and 2035. The parties interested in the project are France’s TotalEnergies, the China National Petroleum Corporation, the China National Offshore Corporation, the Japanese Mitsui and the Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals and Energy National Corporation. In early November, the United States introduced sanctions against this project, forcing these entities to reconsider their participation (Vedomosti.ru, December 25, 2023)
US Sanctions Hamper Russia’s LNG Strategy in the Arctic – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) On the night of December 29, 2023, Russia conducted a series of massive missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Most of the missiles were intercepted by Ukraine’s air defenses (Meduza.io, December 29). Around 35 innocent civilians were killed, even though the missiles did not hit anything of military significance. In contrast, the previous Ukrainian missile attack on Feodosia on December 26 resulted in the explosion of the large Russian landing ship Novocherkassk (Svoboda.org, December 29). According to the Author, despite his strong stance, Putin is increasingly struggling to hide from the Russian population the failure to achieve any progress in the most recent Russian offensive and will probably not be able to avoid the prospect of further failures in the coming year
Russia Enters Third Year of War Diminished, Degraded, and Joyless – Jamestown
Sudan
(Crisis Group) Sudan’s war is entering an even more dangerous phase as fighting spreads to the hotly contested east, leading to further atrocities and mass displacement. Diplomats should work for direct talks between the belligerents
Sudan’s Calamitous Civil War: A Chance to Draw Back from the Abyss | Crisis Group
USA- China
(Noah Robertson – Defense News) Senior Chinese military officials visited Washington this week for two days of meetings with their American counterparts – the latest communication channel between the two nations to resume after a gap lasting more than a year
US-China defense talks resume as two sides meet in Washington (defensenews.com)
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Israele-Gaza. Continua il (complesso) work-in-progress diplomatico / Israel-Gaza. The (complex) diplomatic work-in-progress continues (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Meteo: febbre sempre più alta (Marzia Giglioli)
- Mediazione come essenza della politica / Mediation as the essence of politics (Marco Emanuele)
- Il G7 e la sfida della mediazione / The G7 and the challenge of mediation (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Medio Oriente: la guerra liquida del terrorismo / Middle East: the liquid war of terrorism (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
