From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China-Taiwan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Europe, Gaza, Germany, Gulf States-China-Central Asia, Lebanon, Middle East, Myanmar, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, US, US-China, US-Russia, Global Economy
China – Taiwan
(Benjamin Herscovitch – Lowy The Interpreter)
China’s Ambassador to Australia wrote last week that the international consensus on Beijing’s one-China principle is “unshakable” and that the trend towards its control over Taiwan “unstoppable”. Contrary to the PRC’s confident claims about the international consensus on its side, the world is divided on Taiwan. This is just one recent example of Beijing’s global push to convince the world that, by right and eventually in practice, Taiwan is part of China. – How much of the world really backs Beijing’s claim to Taiwan? | Lowy Institute
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News)
As UN agencies reported “relative calm” on Wednesday in the city of Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), humanitarians warned that the chaos caused by advancing M23 rebel forces could fuel a region-wide health emergency. – DR Congo crisis: A public health ‘nightmare’ is unfolding, warns WHO | UN News
Europe
(Ole Adolphsen, Jule Könneke, Felix Schenuit – SWP)
With the Green Deal, the European Union (EU) has not only significantly increased the ambition of its climate policy in recent years, but it has also added an international dimension to European domestic climate policy. In fact, numerous recently adopted legal acts directly or indirectly affect international partners. Nevertheless, the internal and external dimensions of climate policy are not systematically interlinked in the new European Commission, and there is little strategic diplomatic support for the measures. In view of the increased importance of competitiveness and geopolitical constellations, there is an opportunity for a new strategy process. This could help EU institutions and member states coordinate the external dimension and achieve a meaningful advancement of European climate policy. – The International Dimension of European Climate Policy – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Gaza
(UN News)
As more than 423,000 displaced Palestinians return to their homes in northern Gaza following the opening of key roads, UN agencies are scaling up humanitarian aid and addressing the growing risks posed by unexploded ordnance such as landmines (UXO). – Aid efforts in Gaza escalate, as risk from deadly unexploded ordnance grows | UN News
Germany
(Dirk Schattschneider – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Germany’s February 23 snap elections mark a significant turning point in its political landscape. For the first time in decades, defense is taking center stage in the campaigning. Germany has historically relied on NATO and the United States for security while prioritizing economic success through trade, particularly with China, cheap Russian energy, and social welfare. The Kremlin’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however, shattered this post-Cold War framework, which left Germany with a reputation for being a large version of Switzerland. As a result, all major parties address defense policy in their election platforms. Seven parties are expected to win seats in the Bundestag, but only five—the Christian Democrats (CDU)/Christian Socialists (CSU), the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP)—are potential partners in the next coalition government. Whoever is in power will have to grapple with key defense-related issues including the amount of defense spending, modernization of the Bundeswehr, Germany’s relationship with its allies and with NATO, support for Ukraine, and the EU’s potential role in defense. – Debating Defense | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Gesine Weber, Sandrine Neugart – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Germany’s approaching election could considerably alter the country’s approach to security, defense, and foreign policy. The impact on Europe and the transatlantic relationship could be equally significant. What are the positions of German political parties regarding key issues such as defense spending, NATO and EU enlargement, and support for Ukraine? – German Security, Defense, and Foreign Policy Options | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Gulf States – China – Central Asia
(Dawud Ansari, Jacopo Maria Pepe, Rosa Melissa Gehrung – SWP)
Central Asian economies, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are pursuing increasingly ambitious goals for renewable energy. Apart from China – an established player in the market – it has increasingly been Gulf countries that have been implementing respective projects, particularly Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both China and Gulf countries seem to have found a cooperative approach that is based on sharing the Central Asian market along the value chain. This approach could be a blueprint for future Gulf-China relations, which have become relevant for global politics. Simultaneously, the dynamics also exemplify the growing number of energy and geopolitical dynamics over which Europe has little influence. For the European Union (EU) and Germany, the developments serve as a reminder: While intra-Asian dynamics are gaining importance, Germany and the EU risk being marginalised in matters concerning energy, climate, and geopolitics – and not just in Central Asia. In response, a more consistent Central Asia strategy is required, alongside a constructive and non-ideological approach towards relations with the Arab Gulf States. – The Gulf States, China, and Central Asia’s Green Energy Sector – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Lebanon
(David Daoud – Atlantic Council)
After a two-year vacancy, Lebanon finally has a president. On January 9, Joseph Aoun was swept into office as its fourteenth holder to Lebanese and international acclaim. More importantly, if less glamorously, Lebanon has also selected a prime minister-designate to form a cabinet. Nawaf Salam—a former Palestine Liberation Organization and Fatah militant turned Lebanese diplomat who also served as president of the International Court of Justice—is now expected to assume the premiership. As the head of Lebanon’s true executive authority, lifting the country out of its compounding crises—not the least of which is the question of what will become of Hezbollah and its arms—will fall upon Salam. His chances of success are far from clear. What is clear is that given Lebanon’s dire economic state, its postwar reconstruction needs, and the balance of political power in the country, Salam is highly unlikely to meaningfully confront Hezbollah and risk escalating internal conflict during his premiership. – Lebanon’s prime minister-designate is unlikely to confront Hezbollah – Atlantic Council
(Fadi Nicholas Nassar – Middle East Institute) The election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is a political breakthrough in Lebanon and a harbinger of what could happen in a country long dismissed as unsalvageable. Beirut’s new leadership reflects the aspiration of a majority of the Lebanese people to live in a functioning state free from the dual drivers of its failure: political violence and pervasive corruption. Those leaders must now deliver on their commitment to establish a state committed and accountable to its people and rise to meet the responsibility that comes with holding the promise of a nation’s future. – The way forward in Lebanon | Middle East Institute
Middle East
(Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Carolyn Moorman, Avery Borens, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Syria: The HTS-led interim Syrian government held a “victory conference,” during which it formalized much of its consolidation of power since the fall of Bashar al Assad.
Syria: Russia and the HTS-led interim Syrian government failed to reach an agreement on Russian military basing in Syria.
Iraq: Some members of the Shia Coordination Framework, such as Nouri al Maliki, are reportedly trying to remove Falih al Fayyadh as PMF chairman. – Iran Update, January 29, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Soufan Center)
Both the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah truce in south Lebanon have come under significant pressure as the contending sides trade accusations of systematic violations.
The Trump administration is urging full implementation of all truce agreements in the region to focus on other pressing domestic and international priorities.
Israel has announced it will delay its withdrawal from south Lebanon, prompting threats by Hezbollah to resume its attacks on northern Israel.
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza is given little chance of producing an enduring peace because of the vast differences in the two sides’ objectives. – Regional Truces Fray as Trump Takes Office – The Soufan Center
(Kristina Kausch, George Noll, Kadri Tastan, Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı – German Marshall Fund of the United States)
In 2025, the Middle East is set to undergo a profound reconfiguration. Rockets between Israel and Iran, the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria all set the stage for a year that will continue to essentially alter the geopolitical pillars of the region. Iran has not been this weak since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, while Türkiye has been propelled to the role of a regional game-changer. Israel’s regional positioning is uncertain, but Netanyahu is bound to seize the momentum of a second Trump term to press his advantage. Leadership changes in the White House and European capitals create further uncertainty about the course and priorities of external players, and hedging looms large. For transatlantic allies in Europe, the United States, and Türkiye, key risks to watch for in 2025 include: the response of a weakened Iran; Syria at the crossroads post-Assad; the future of Gaza, Palestine, and Israel in the region; and the ways in which strategic rivals China and Russia may seek to exploit the fragility of regional reconfiguration. – A Middle East in Flux: Four Transatlantic Risks | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Myanmar
(UN News)
Four years after the military coup which plunged Myanmar into turmoil, the country is facing an unprecedented “polycrisis,” marked by economic collapse, intensifying conflict, complex climate hazards and deepening poverty, according to a new report by the UN Development Programme (UNDP). – Four years after the coup, Myanmar remains on the brink | UN News
(Andrew Selth – Lowy The Interpreter)
Activists, pundits and even some academic commentators have described the military power grab in Myanmar on 1 February 2021 as a “failed coup”. It is not always clear precisely what they mean by this, but the inescapable fact remains that the self-styled State Administration Council (SAC) led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is still in power after four tumultuous years. – Myanmar’s “failed junta” turns five | Lowy Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter and William Runkel – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital to Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defense against Russian aggression.
Putin’s longstanding theory of victory relies on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine, and only unwavering Western support and consistent deliveries of Western military assistance to Kyiv can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer the concessions necessary for any resolution to the conflict acceptable to the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
Putin indicated that he will not view any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding by claiming that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to rescind the 2022 Ukrainian presidential decree banning negotiations with Putin.
Putin’s statements rejecting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and of a possible future peace agreement set conditions for Russia to justify violating any future agreements with Ukraine.
Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiations framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike at the Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and reportedly hit a Russian arsenal in Tver Oblast on the night of January 28 to 29.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed in a post on January 29 that Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik is the commander of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Robotnye, and in the Dnipro direction.
Volunteer recruitment rates in in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
US
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) The second Trump administration takes office amid profound changes to the global geopolitical and economic landscape, presenting US decision-makers with major challenges and significant opportunities. They will need to provide urgent, innovative answers to strategic questions that will shape relations between United States, Europe, and the rest of the world for the next four years and beyond. – A Foreign Policy Memo for the New US Administration | German Marshall Fund of the United States
US – China
(Ryan Hass – Brookings)
The U.S.-China relationship President Donald J. Trump inherited is vastly different than the one he handed off to the Biden administration in 2021. China continues to expand its global influence and industrial output, but it also faces challenges at home from a softening economy and an increasingly sclerotic and centralized political decisionmaking process. Trump’s team holds a variety of viewpoints on how to maximize America’s leverage, or even on what objectives America should pursue in its competition with China. Left unaddressed, this variance in views risks leading to policy incoherence. To overcome this risk, Trump will need to set a firm direction, identify specific objectives, and put his advisors on notice that they will pay a cost for actions that undermine his goals. Trump has an opportunity to craft a strong policy to move the U.S.-China relationship toward becoming fairer and more equitable. Whether he seizes this opportunity may depend upon the degree to which he acts with purpose, maintains focus, and imposes discipline over a sprawling set of actors within his administration who will implement America’s China strategy. – Can Trump seize the moment on China?
US – Russia
(Aura Sabadus – Atlantic Council)
US President Donald Trump has warned Russia that he will impose economic measures including taxes, tariffs, and sanctions unless Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to end the war in Ukraine. While it is far from clear whether economic pressure alone can bring Putin to the negotiating table, Russia’s oil and gas industry looks to be the most vulnerable sector of his wartime economy. – Can increased energy sector sanctions pressure Putin into peace talks? – Atlantic Council
Global Economy
(Indermit Gill, M. Ayhan Kose – Brookings)
At the start of the new year, alarms are again blaring over trade disputes between major economies, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for resurgent inflation. Yet, the global economy has remained surprisingly resilient for the past three years despite being subjected to a barrage of shocks. And there are at least three reasons why it could defy expectations yet again this year. – 3 reasons the global economy could outperform expectations
