From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Australia, Australia-China, Colombia-US, India-China, Indonesia, Indonesia-ASEAN, Middle East, Papua New Guinea, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, South Asia-Gulf-Africa, Sri Lanka-India-China, US-China
Australia
(Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist)
Each day, more than 160 airline flights carrying 13,000 passengers take off and land at Perth Airport to and from destinations across northern Australia. They ferry skilled workers to and from minerals and energy operations. Darwin and Brisbane airports also host air services to and from northern Australian resources hubs. This provides a real-time indicator of the health of the Australian resources sector, which is overwhelmingly concentrated north of the 26th parallel. – Northern Australia strengthens its role in economy and energy security | The Strategist
Australia – China
(Philipp Ivanov – Lowy The Interpreter)
With all eyes on US President Trump over the past month, the world’s second superpower quietly slipped from global headlines. Until this week, when China’s DeepSeek unveiled its artificial intelligence (AI) model, which rivals the advanced American AI, but at a fraction of the costs. The story triggered a meltdown of the US stock market and marked another milestone in the US-China tech race. For Australia, it underlined how China’s trajectory in 2025 will profoundly influence our economic and strategic prospects. This will be a testing year for Australia-China relations, as both Canberra and Beijing face a confluence of economic and political pressure points, amid global geopolitical upheaval. – Australia’s China strategy in an election year | Lowy Institute
Colombia – US
(Soufan Center)
At least 80 people have been killed and 32,000 have been forced from their homes in northeastern Colombia over the past few weeks as fighting has surged between rival violent non-state actors.
The fighting between National Liberation Army (ELN) and the 33rd Front, a group comprised of dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has been occurring over cocoa plantations and drug trafficking routes.
The illicit drug trade remains a key factor in shaping U.S. foreign policy, particularly under President Trump, influencing economic and immigration policies toward many countries in Latin America.
On Sunday, a diplomatic tête-a-tête erupted between Colombian President Gustavo Petro and U.S. President Donald Trump when Petro refused to permit two U.S. military aircraft carrying deported Colombian nationals to land back home in Colombia. – Colombia and the U.S.: Rising Violence, Cartels, and Diplomatic Standoffs in Latin America – The Soufan Center
India – China
(Sameer Patil, Ayyappan Rajesh – Observer Research Foundation)
According to recent reports, the Indian government has put the Internet of Things (IoT) modules manufactured by Chinese companies under scrutiny. These modules, part of the telecom network, enable wireless communication between IoT devices within the network. They can potentially be used for surveillance and espionage. With growing concerns over data vulnerabilities and potential foreign access, the Indian government is now acting against these devices, which had previously avoided scrutiny related to Chinese hardware. – Expanding national security risks from foreign-manufactured hardware
(Harsh V. Pant, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation)
India’s Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, was recently in China on a two-day trip to discuss the future course of bilateral relations between the two countries, following an initiative by both nations to normalise ties after a military standoff spanning nearly four years. – As India-China Grow Close, Who’s Driving The ‘Narrative’?
Indonesia
(Siwage Dharma Negara – East Asia Forum)
Indonesia maintained 5 per cent growth in 2024 despite multiple challenges and a presidential transition. But Prabowo Subianto’s new administration confronts significant hurdles — declining household spending, weak export demand, mounting fiscal pressures and slow reform progress. While BRICS membership offers opportunities, domestic structural challenges requires careful management through policy reforms. – Prabowo inherits the unfinished business of Jokowinomics | East Asia Forum
Indonesia – ASEAN
(Klaus Heinrich Raditio – Lowy The Interpreter)
Earlier this month, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers’ Retreat was held in Langkawi, Malaysia, marking the association’s first major meeting since the country took chairmanship. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim envisions a “second Renaissance” for ASEAN, aimed at advancing peace, justice and prosperity, particularly in light of the organisation’s disunity and growing irrelevance, especially concerning the issues surrounding Myanmar and the South China Sea (SCS). – Indonesia must reclaim its ASEAN leadership | Lowy Institute
Middle East
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation)
The Israel-Iran conflict over the past fifteen months is a case study that emphasises the continued importance of human intelligence in modern warfare, exposing the gaps in new technologies. – Modern warfare in the Middle East: Intelligence versus forward defence
Papua New Guinea
(Ronald J. May – East Asia Forum)
Papua New Guinea faced multiple crises in 2024, beginning with the January riots that caused AUD$160 million in damage. The year saw escalating inter-group violence, infrastructure failures, and political instability as multiple no-confidence motions challenged Prime Minister Marape’s leadership. While mining operations resumed and international engagement increased, including significant Australian support, fundamental governance and security challenges persisted. – Trying times for Papua New Guinea | East Asia Forum
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Ian Hill – ASPI The Strategist)
President Donald Trump has said he wants to end the fighting in Ukraine quickly. But it’s far from clear whether this is achievable, not least because the war in Ukraine has become a proxy for Putin’s wider confrontation with the West. Trump’s campaign pledge that he would end the fighting within 24 hours has already been modified, with the new president and his advisers more recently discussing a period of three to six months. Trump has signalled plans for an early meeting with Vladimir Putin, while the United States’s special adviser to Ukraine is expected to visit Kyiv soon. – To deal with Russia, first understand what Putin wants | The Strategist
South Asia – Gulf – Africa
(Samriddhi Vij – Observer Research Foundation)
In 2022, the Global Food Security Index ranked all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in the Top 50 most food-secure states in the world. Interestingly, all the GCC countries ranked even higher than India and Brazil, one of the largest food producers in the world. Despite achieving a high degree of food security, for a region that imports 85 percent of its food, the issue continues to hold relevance. This was underscored in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Food Security Minister, Mariam Hareb Almheiri’s statement, “[a]s food security is a pressing resource security challenge for the UAE, we have a keen interest in increasing agricultural efficiency through the adoption of new methods and diversifying the pattern of agricultural investment abroad (…) to support sustainable development and bridge the nutritional gap”. While bilateral trade between Africa-GCC and South Asia-GCC has furthered the food security agenda, a tripartite partnership between South Asia, Gulf and Africa might be the “diversification of agricultural investment abroad” that is needed. This article aims to understand the current status of food security partnerships and advocate for a comprehensive food corridor across the three regions. – Triangularising agricultural diplomacy: Building a food security corridor across GCC, South Asia, and Africa
Sri Lanka – India – China
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation)
In September 2024, when Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) was elected as the 9th Executive President of Sri Lanka, the populace was expecting broad political reforms and a swift road to economic recovery. Given the economic and political setting, the new Government had no option but to be pragmatic and balance its relations with India and China. Both countries are crucial for its IMF debt restructuring and enable speedy economic recovery. Five months into power, AKD’s Sri Lanka is witnessing a new phase of competition between both countries in the form of grants and investments, and balancing is becoming difficult. The recent visit to China has offered some clarity to his foreign policy, but is raising some concerns in India. – Of Promises and Precariousness: Tough balancing ahead for AKD
US – China
(Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation)
At a time when the newly elected U.S. President, Donald Trump, is making a pitch to re-shore manufacturing to America, its companies operating out of China are having second thoughts about what was considered a miracle economy. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Trump made a simple pitch that if companies invested in American manufacturing capabilities, then they would be subject to the lowest taxation. While Trump has not made good on his campaign pledge—a 60% blanket tariff on Chinese merchandise—he has threatened imposition of a 10% levy from February 1 if Beijing does not act on the exports of ingredients for fentanyl, a harmful synthetic opioid. Among the first Presidential orders that he signed was a comprehensive review of trade with China, including supply chains that use other countries to evade exposure to tariffs. Given these rising geopolitical tensions, a record number of American corporates—as many as 30%—are either contemplating shifting out some operations from China or are already in the process of relocating elsewhere, revealed the annual survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China. This exodus of America Inc from China is twice as big as in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic had led China to impose strict lockdowns as a response to the contingency. – Why A Record Number Of US Firms Mull Exit From China