Geostrategic magazine (1 February 2025)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

Today’s about : Asia, China, China-India-Bangladesh, China-Taiwan, Europe, India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, India-US, Nepal, Russia, US, US-China, Vietnam

Asia

(Parjiono, Chandra Kusuma – East Asia Forum)
Asia continues to face significant food insecurity challenges. But global platforms like the G20, efforts for regional collaboration through organisations like ASEAN and initiatives to innovate the agricultural industry provide opportunities to tackle this issue. Despite challenges like climate change and urbanisation, reforms in Indonesia and elsewhere provide case studies for how ambitious reform and regional collaboration can pave the way for progress towards an adequate food supply for all. – A recipe for success for food security in Asia | East Asia Forum

China

(Sunny Cheung, Owen Au – The Jamestown Foundation)
New deep-sea technologies, growing influence in the International Seabed Authority, and domestic legislation are part of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) ambitions to become a strong maritime power. The PRC is the world’s largest net importer of critical minerals, a potential vulnerability that could be alleviated through exploiting the ocean floor. This would help reinforce its already dominant position in the critical minerals supply chain and in the manufacture of the key technologies of the energy transition. The International Seabed Authority is currently negotiating a mining code. The PRC has been among the most vocal advocates for opening international waters to mining and in 2023 opposed the creation of an inspection body to enforce a future code, while last year it unilaterally blocked a motion to pause mining activities out of environmental concerns. Deep-sea activity conducted by the PRC, including scientific research, is closely linked to the country’s military. Key institutions are subject to U.S. government sanctions and export controls, and research vessels have been caught undertaking exploration activities within the exclusive economic zones of other nations or planting the PRC flag in contested areas. –Roiling in the Deep: PRC Pushes New Deep Sea Order – Jamestown

(Matthew Brazil, Matthew Gabriel Cazel Brazil – The Jamestown Foundation)
Talent flows uncovered between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) operations in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and several sanctioned PRC firms constitute risks to the company’s position at the leading edge of the global chip industry. TSMC’s transition to encompass other parts of the value chain, ostensibly to avoid monopoly concerns, exacerbates these risks. If TSMC cedes its dominance, the deterrent effect of Taiwan’s “silicon shield” would be greatly reduced. It could also affect Washington’s support for Taiwan. The company has begun to diversify by setting up fabrication plants in the United States in an effort that has been encouraged by its main customers, including Western tech giants such as Apple and Nvidia. – Star Hostage: TSMC, China’s Drive to Conquer Taiwan, and the Race to Win AI Superiority – Jamestown

(Prerna Gandhi – Vivekananda International Foundation)
In 2024, China commemorated the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, held from July 15 to 18, 2024, emphasized structural transformation, technological innovation, and sustainable development. A significant outcome was the plan to establish a “high-level socialist market economy” by 2035, signalling a transition from the “primary stage of socialism” and early reform era. This approach aims to balance state-owned and private enterprises, with the private sector playing a crucial role in innovation, tax revenue, GDP, and employment. The plenum focused on deepening reforms such as market-based pricing, privatization, and financial liberalization, integrating the private sector further into China’s socialist framework. Key initiatives included Hukou reform to enhance mobility and access to social benefits for 20% of the population, and local government budget reforms to improve transparency and financial oversight. – China’s 2024 Review and Outlook for 2025 | Vivekananda International Foundation

China – India – Bangladesh

(Genevieve Donnellon-May – The Jamestown Foundation)
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has officially approved a 60-gigawatt hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet, estimated to cost over 1 trillion renminbi ($137 billion) and surpass the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam. The project aligns with national goals to provide clean energy, ensure energy security, and develop Tibet’s regional economy. India and Bangladesh, through which the river also flows, fear the impact on their own water security. The absence of a formal water-sharing agreement has exacerbated tensions in a region already heightened by the PRC’s territorial claims to parts of Arunachal Pradesh (South Tibet). More than four years after the project was initially announced, details remain limited, obscuring information on its environmental and social impact. – Harnessing Hydropower, Sparking Tensions: PRC Mega-Dam and India’s Water Security Fears – Jamestown

China – Taiwan

(Erik Green, Meia Nouwens – IISS)
China’s legal-warfare strategy against Taiwan includes strengthening legal and regulatory links to promote cross-Strait integration and provide a legal justification for potential future action against Taiwan. – China’s Taiwan-related legal initiatives: actors and strategic implications

Europe

(Alexander Bollfrass, Ester Sabatino, Chelsey Wiley – IISS)
The war in Ukraine has underscored the strategic utility of space in modern conflict. Satellite-based assets have proven critical for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), communications and cyber operations. Russia’s pre-emptive cyber attack on Ukraine’s Viasat system demonstrated the extension of conflict in space and the vulnerability of space- based systems to non-kinetic threats, emphasising the need for resilience and redundancy in space capabilities. This research report analyses selected European national defence policies and plans to advance their approaches to space and space capability in support of terrestrial military operations, and reveals disparities in ambition and capacity across the continent. It further examines the limited but growing role of international partnerships and cooperation through the European Union and NATO, as well as individual national approaches to integrating commercial space capabilities for military uses. A comparison with the United States highlights gaps in European capabilities and coordination and shows that the examined national approaches to space are aimed at the incremental creation and improvement of sovereign space capabilities. – Space Capabilities to Support Military Operations in the European Theatre

India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor

(Ritwik Prijit – Vivekananda International Foundation)
India’s G20 presidency culminated in an ambitious transcontinental dream when New Delhi hosted the country’s first G20 summit in 2023. True to its theme, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam or “One Earth One Family One Future”, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a key economic project involving seven countries – India, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), France, Germany, Italy and the US under a memorandum of understanding. Besides the signatories of the MoU, Jordan, Israel, and Greece play important roles in the project that aims to connect the Gulf to Europe. – IMEC, a Possibility Put on Hold | Vivekananda International Foundation

India – US

(R. Vignesh – Manohar Parrikar Institute)
India and the US established the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) on 24 May 2022. The iCET envisages the co-development and joint manufacture of technologies across a range of domains including Artificial Intelligence (AI), Quantum Computing, semiconductors, telecommunications, defence and space. During the visit of the outgoing US National Security Advisor (NSA) Jake Sullivan to India in January 2025, a range of initiatives were announced for producing tangible deliverables under the iCET framework. Among these initiatives is the first-of-its-kind partnership on co-production of sonobuoys for enhancing Undersea Domain Awareness (UDA) capabilities of both nations. In December 2020, the then Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Karambir Singh highlighted the strengthening of UDA and Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) capabilities as key focus areas of the Indian Navy, in response to a question on the growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). – The India–US Partnership on Sonobuoys – MP-IDSA

Nepal

(Rishi Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation)
The year 2024 was marred by political instability in Nepal, which has remained constant in Kathmandu’s politics in the past seven decades. However, the dawn of democracy in 2008 generated hopes towards a stable political environment, but that has not happened. As Nepal evolves into a democratic form of government, the democracy is held hostage to the Westminster model, where coalitions and political equations define much of the stability of the government. On the foreign policy front, Nepal had an engaging year with its two neighbours, India and China, and at the end of 2024, Prime Minister KP Oli’s visit to China saw a heated media narrative on whether the Himalayan country was falling into Beijing’s trap and moving away from India. Apart from making efforts to balance ties with its two neighbours, Nepal’s foreign policy actively pursued partnerships with the United States, Russia and the Gulf countries on multiple fronts. Nepal’s foreign policy was also tested in safely bringing its citizens who had been lured into risky jobs abroad, including as frontline soldiers in the Russian Army. – Nepal in 2024: Political Instability, Geopolitical Contest, and Economic Growth | Vivekananda International Foundation

Russia

(Nick Childs – IISS – 31 January 2025)
The activities of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ have suddenly come under the global spotlight due to a growing focus on efforts to counter its role in evading sanctions and also amid growing suspicions of its involvement in an escalating Russian campaign of hybrid warfare against the West. – Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ and Sanctions Evasion: What Is To Be Done?

US

(Shannon K. O’Neil, Julia Huesa – Council on Foreign Relations)
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico—the United States’ largest trading partners—on February 1. U.S. importers will pay a 25 percent tax on all goods from Canada and Mexico, as Trump tries to force both countries to curb migration and drug trafficking into the United States. Imports from China, meanwhile, will face 10 percent tariffs unless Beijing reins in the smuggling of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Canada and Mexico, where they are made into U.S.-bound fentanyl. – What Trump’s Trade War Would Mean, in Nine Charts | Council on Foreign Relations

US – China

(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation)
The PRC is tempering its criticisms of the United States and other powerful countries in the early part of the Trump administration in a seeming attempt to foster a stable external environment while it continues to enhance its national power. Official PRC media have mostly refused to criticize President Trump’s rhetoric regarding territorial expansion, in contrast to non-official media and other global coverage of the new president’s inaugural address. Beijing’s support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as its frequently coercive and expansionist activities along its continental and maritime borders, belie rhetoric that it is a contributor to world peace. – Beijing Woos Washington While Advancing New International Order – Jamestown

(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations)
CFR fellows weigh in on the global reaction to the release of Chinese AI model DeepSeek and what it means for U.S.-China competition. – DeepSeek: Making Sense of the Reaction—and Overreaction | Council on Foreign Relations

Vietnam

(Phan Xuan Dung – FULCRUM)
Political leaders often assert legitimacy by positioning themselves at critical junctures, as exemplified by Xi Jinping’s doctrine of “socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era” and Donald Trump’s promise of a new American “golden age.” Similarly, Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) General Secretary To Lam is proclaiming that Vietnam is entering an “era of national rise” (kỷ nguyên vươn mình của dân tộc) — one of the accelerated breakthroughs aimed at transforming the country’s governance and economy. In doing so, To Lam has instrumentalised time to legitimise and advance his ambitious political agenda. – Vietnam’s Era of ‘National Rise’: Great Expectations | FULCRUM

 

 

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