From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Armenia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Japan-China, Middle Corridor, Middle East, Russia, Turkmenistan, US, US-Australia, US-Mexico, US-Pacific Islands
Armenia
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation)
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, which Moscow views as an attempt by Brussels and Washington D.C. to fully replace it.
Armenia’s reliance on Russia for trade complicates the situation. The economic challenges posed by such a pivot mean the government is likely to face significant domestic opposition.
The associated economic and geopolitical costs of EU ascension are potentially substantial despite diversification in the area of defense. The same diversification in terms of energy and trade remains long overdue. – Armenia Moves Toward Europe While Still Dependent on Russia – Jamestown
Democratic Republic of Congo
(Michelle Gavin – Council on Foreign Relations – 28 January 2025) Once again, the eastern Congolese city of Goma has fallen to the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. The mayhem is certainly real; the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) displacement crisis is second only to Sudan’s, and many of the roughly 1.5 million people now trapped in Goma have been on the run from conflict for years. Peacekeepers from the United Nations and the Southern African Development Community were killed in the latest advance. But drivers of the conflict are murkier than the scale of the emergency, particularly if one tries to glean insight from the rhetoric of the antagonists involved. – The Fall of Goma | Council on Foreign Relations
Japan – China
(Haruka Satake – East Asia Forum)
The November 2024 Japan–China summit in Peru was a strong sign of improving Japan–China ties, with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirming their ‘strategic mutually beneficial relationship’. Japan and China should take advantage of warming relations and enhance diplomatic engagement to address regional security challenges, especially the North Korea nuclear threat. Both nations must align their strategic interests and use their security cooperation to pressure North Korea toward denuclearisation without pushing it further into militarisation. – Positivity peaks at the Japan–China Summit | East Asia Forum
Middle Corridor
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation)
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, has evolved as a key alternative for trade between Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) due to sanctions against Russia. The route bypasses Russia and transits through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Türkiye.
The TITR has seen a 25-fold increase in freight volumes from the PRC to Europe in 2024, with Azerbaijan playing a pivotal role. This growth aligns with the PRC’s One Belt-One Road initiative, emphasizing regional connectivity.
This route highlights how countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus view transit through Russia as a growing economic risk while fostering infrastructure ties between the PRC and European Union offers a more promising economic future. – Trade Along Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Surges – Jamestown
Middle East
(Charles P. Ries, Daniel Egel, Shelly Culbertson, David E. Thaler, C. Ross Anthony, Robin Meili, Mark Christopher Schwartz, Amal Altwaijri, Raphael S. Cohen, Marzia Giambertoni, et al. – RAND Corporation)
The authors examine the possibility that the extraordinary costs and destructiveness of the present Israeli-Palestinian conflict could demonstrate to all the urgent need for a path to a durable peace. The authors consider the history of this asymmetrical conflict; identify lessons from attempts to resolve other thorny conflicts; and set out a road map with short-, medium-, and long-term security, governance, economic, physical and social, and international pathways to such a peace. – Pathways to a Durable Israeli-Palestinian Peace | RAND
Russia
(Oleksandr V Danylyuk – RUSI)
At the end of the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western politicians are increasingly expressing their opinion on certain conditions for its conclusion. This is undoubtedly facilitated by the election of US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly promised that he will stop the war immediately after taking office. At the same time, the Russian side is increasingly emphasising that it sees no prerequisites even for a ceasefire, and continues to increase the size of its Armed Forces and weapons production. In addition, the number and audacity of Russian operations carried out against Western countries themselves is increasing. All these indicators point to the intensification of Russian efforts not only to militarily seize Ukraine, but also to destabilise and capture the West. Western leaders are stubbornly trying not to notice this, to some extent imitating the behaviour of their Ukrainian colleagues on the eve of the Russian invasion. However, an analysis of Russia’s intentions and investments in acquiring the capabilities necessary to overthrow the West leaves no room for disagreement. Russia is waging an undeclared war against the West and is enjoying significant success in this war. – The Components of Russia’s Undeclared War Against the West | Royal United Services Institute
Turkmenistan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation)
Turkmenistan is rapidly expanding and modernizing its military to allow Ashgabat to defend itself against domestic challenges, threats from Afghanistan, and increasing competition on the Caspian, as well as to support its expanded M4enkhG2h8ba3nHpolitical and economic activity internationally.
While it still lags militarily behind Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan now has more tanks than any other country in Central Asia, is investing heavily in modernization and training, and leads Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in international rankings of military strength by wide margins.
Ashgabat is less dependent on Russia or the People’s Republic of China than many have assumed and is rapidly becoming a force to be reckoned with in the region. – Turkmenistan Expanding Military to Support Its Increased International Activity – Jamestown
US
(Christopher Sabatini – Chatham House)
Since his inauguration, most of the world’s attention has focused on President Donald Trump’s professed love of tariffs. But the new administration has said relatively little about its intentions surrounding the use of sanctions. There have been two notable exceptions: Trump has announced he would impose more sanctions on Russia if it refused to end its ‘ridiculous war’ in Ukraine. And over the weekend, the president threatened to impose sanctions on Colombia (alongside tariffs) if the country did not accept military deportation flights from the US. (Bogota has since backed down). For now, Trump’s broader long-term strategy for the use of sanctions remains unclear. Yet it may do more to shape international politics, economics and alliances than his use of tariffs. – The Trump administration’s sanctions policy could matter more than its use of tariffs | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Douglas Barrie – IISS)
The problem facing the United States, and by inference also some of its closest allies, is as broad as it is long: what kind of air (and space) power will the US require to prevail against a peer competitor in the middle of this century? It is a question that Frank Kendall, the now former secretary of the US Air Force (USAF), grappled with in the ‘The Department of the Air Force in 2050’ Congressional Committee report. The report starkly projects the extent of the likely challenge from China, which, by 2050, the Department of the Air Force (DAF) sees as a peer competitor on a global scale. ‘Today, the United States is in a race for military technological superiority with China’, the report contends. This competition will shape fundamentally any confrontation in the air and space domains, as well as the types of platforms, capabilities and personnel needed to win. – US Air Force 2050: rethinking next-gen air power
(Center for Strategic & International Studies)
In his first week in office, President Trump signed numerous executive orders related to energy and climate policy. With these orders, the approach of the federal government to energy and climate matters is set to change, with an increased focus on domestic energy production and a return to energy dominance. What are the practical implications of these orders for the United States, allies and partners, and global markets? – Energy Emergency: Interpreting Executive Orders on Energy and Climate | CSIS Events
(Nerida King – ASPI The Strategist)
President Donald Trump’s trade and economic security team is united and ready to use tariffs, export controls and enhanced sanctions to strengthen the US economy and achieve geostrategic outcomes against US adversaries. Those objectives range from preserving the US technology edge over China to stemming the flow of fentanyl pre-cursors into the United States and forcing a Russia-Ukraine peace. – Trump’s trade and economic security agenda: what we know so far | The Strategist
US – Australia
(Peter Layton – Lowy The Interpreter)
Debate about the value of Australia’s 1951 alliance with the United States has long focused on the pledge that the parties “will consult together” and how much this ensures action “to meet the common danger”. But the answer is that ANZUS is no longer fit for purpose given contemporary power dynamics. This isn’t about whether China or the United States is bigger or smaller than the other. The weakness of ANZUS has been made plain by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the American response in the years since. – Revitalising Australia’s out-of-date US alliance | Lowy Institute
US – Mexico
(Shannon K. O’Neil – Council on Foreign Relations)
President Donald Trump vows to remove millions of unauthorized migrants from the US and stop new entrants at the border. Bringing back the punitive playbook from his first administration not only won’t fix today’s border challenges. It will further destabilize Mexico and exacerbate threats to both countries. – Destabilizing Mexico Would Make the U.S. Less Safe and Wealthy | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Pacific Islands
(Michael Walsh – ASPI The Strategist)
The Biden administration struggled with adequately advancing US national security and foreign policy interests in the Pacific islands. The problem was that the White House failed to select the right business concept to pursue. What is needed is not simply a strategic pivot. What is needed is a business transformation. That requires more than reform and modernisation. It requires a radical rethinking and restructuring of the core business processes of the US embassies and consulates to the Pacific island countries. – In Pacific island countries, Trump should pursue embassy transformation | The Strategist