From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel, Myanmar, Russia, South Africa-G20, Syria, US, US-Iran, US-Russia, US-Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Geostrategies
Brazil
(Rodrigo Albuquerque Pereira – RUSI)
When discussing Brazil’s military expenditure, it has become commonplace to claim that the share allocated to personnel is too large. In fact, if we examine Congress’s Defence Sector report for the 2025 budgetary law (approved on 11 December 2024), we find that personnel expenditure accounts for 74% of the 2025 budget proposal for the armed forces. Further adjustments to the law by the congressman responsible for the report increased that percentage to nearly 76%, similar to the 2023 and 2024 proposals. (There were no increases in personnel expenditure, but investment was slightly reduced, which marginally altered the percentage.) – Does Brazil Spend Too Much on Military Personnel? | Royal United Services Institute
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News)
After days of intense fighting, the humanitarian situation in Goma, capital of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has reached alarming levels – with humanitarian needs now massive and response capacities severely strained. – Hospitals overwhelmed in DR Congo, food running out: Goma faces ‘devastation’ | UN News
Israel
(Paul Scham – Middle East Institute)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (known to all as “Bibi”) has been widely acclaimed as a political wizard. But his alleged wizardry faces a potentially disastrous showdown within the next month, unless he manages to deter the (in most cases) strongly held positions of the foreign and domestic politicians and political forces on which he is dependent. – Israel’s upcoming political crisis | Middle East Institute
Myanmar
(UN News)
The UN Secretary-General on Thursday said Myanmar’s military must relinquish power to allow a return to civilian rule through an inclusive democratic transition, as the country marks four years since the junta seized power. – Myanmar: UN chief urges return to civilian rule as crisis worsens | UN News
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation)
The Kremlin is increasingly using the Cossack identity to justify its war in Ukraine, portraying them as liberators of Russian land. The Cossack’s use of Orthodox symbolism and historical narratives reinforce their role in neo-imperial mythmaking. The All-Russian Cossack Society highlights Cossack military contributions in Ukraine, emphasizing religious ceremonies, battle banners, and Russian Orthodox Church blessings to mythologize their role, further integrating the Cossack identity into Russia’s “holy war.”. The revival of Cossack identity is gaining institutional backing, with Moscow set to open a Cossack museum in 2025, further solidifying their role in state propaganda and potentially uniting different Cossack factions under Kremlin control. – Kremlin Continues to Promote Cossack Rebirth in 2025 – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation)
Throughout his tenure, but especially since the start of his expanded war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has dramatically expanded the use of punitive psychiatry against his opponents and other dissenters, a practice that its victims have said made the Soviet Union, and is making Russia today, “an evil empire.”. A major difference in the uses of punitive psychiatry by the Russian regime today compared to the Soviet Union is that the latter employed it against high-profile dissidents, while today, it is most often targeted toward Russian regions and republics. As the uses of punitive psychiatry today are largely unnoticed by Western observers and thus escape serious criticism, its use is likely to expand further, limited only by the number of opponents Putin faces and the relatively high costs of psychiatric imprisonment compared to other methods of intimidation and control. – Putin Expands Use of Soviet-Style Punitive Psychiatry Across Russia – Jamestown
South Africa – G20
(Christopher Vandome – Chatham House)
Africa is hosting the G20 for the first time. South Africa, which took over the G20 presidency in December, welcomes world leaders to the group’s summit in November. South African leadership offers a real opportunity to further the interests of poorer countries. But with geopolitical tensions intensifying and a new US president in the White House, its timing is especially challenging. Under the banner of Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability, Pretoria’s priorities include driving greater equity in global governance and giving more prominence to Africa’s development agenda. The event will be the culmination of a series of G20 summits hosted by IBSA nations – India, Brazil, South Africa. All three democracies have positioned their G20 presidencies as champions of the Global South and of reforming international governance to be more inclusive. – South Africa’s G20 presidency is a chance for the West to engage with Global South priorities | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Syria
(UN News)
Humanitarians warned on Thursday that Syria continues to face major security and aid challenges in the northeast and beyond, in the uncertain aftermath of the overthrow of the Assad regime. – Syria: Hostilities and aid challenges persist across devastated country | UN News
US
(Seth G. Jones – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
The U.S. government has not adequately leveraged the commercial sector to conduct irregular warfare against China, Russia, Iran, and other competitors because of significant risk aversion, slow and burdensome contracting and acquisitions processes, and a failure to adequately understand technological advances. There is an urgent need to rethink how the United States works with the commercial sector in such areas as battlefield awareness, placement and access, next-generation intelligence, unmanned and autonomous systems, influence operations, and precision effects. – The Tech Revolution and Irregular Warfare: Leveraging Commercial Innovation for Great Power Competition
US – Iran
(Brian Katulis, Alex Vatanka, Patricia Karam – Middle East Institute)
In his second term in office, President Donald Trump faces a Middle East undergoing multifaceted upheaval and an Islamic Republic of Iran currently in its weakest and most isolated position since the founding of the regime in 1979. Yet far from permanently subdued, Tehran continues to move closer to building a nuclear weapon, and it is trying to preserve its regional network of proxies and non-state allies. Trump now faces an important strategic choice on Iran policy. Will he return to an updated version of “maximum pressure” and act as an unpredictable disruptor, or will he prioritize his penchant for deal-making and seek a quick pathway to a new nuclear deal with Iran? In navigating these choices, President Trump should make use of a key asset and force multiplier: America’s regional partners, whose security has been negatively impacted by Iran. This new approach should also encompass fragile theaters like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine, whose governance has been further weakened by the infiltration and influence of Iran-backed non-state actors as part of Tehran’s “forward defense” strategy. This report analyzes three overarching dynamics: the shifting strategic landscape across the Middle East in 2023-24; the impact of these shifts on Iran and its Axis of Resistance network; and Iran’s current position and standing at home and in the region. The report concludes with a series of strategic-level recommendations for the new administration. – Beyond “Maximum Pressure” in US Policy on Iran: Leveraging Regional Partners to Contain Iran’s Actions and Shape its Future Choices | Middle East Institute
US – Russia
(Robin Brooks, Ben Harris – Brookings)
On January 10, 2025, the United States announced a massive sanctions action covering 183 Russian-controlled and shadow fleet ships. This round of sanctions is by far the largest such action toward limiting Russian oil tanker capacity, with especially acute implications for Russia’s Pacific ports. Yet, despite the sweeping nature of this action, global oil prices have not seen a sustained rise since the announcement—indicating additional room to sanction more shadow fleet oil tankers without risk of roiling global energy markets. This evidence justifies our prior calls for more sanctions on Russian oil tankers, in which we argued that further sanctions would weaken Russia’s trading activity while also adding to the mounting strain on the Sovcomflot fleet—with limited risk for spiking global oil prices. – More sanctions on Russian oil tankers
US – Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Liana Fix, Thomas Graham, Michael O’Hanlon, and Paul B. Stares – Council on Foreign Relations)
As the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looms, President Donald Trump and his administration are working toward bringing the war to a swift end. Five experts lay out recommendations for the Trump administration to ensure Ukraine’s survival and independence in alignment with core U.S. interests. – Securing Ukraine’s Future: What Should the United States Do? | Council on Foreign Relations
Geostrategies
(Heather Hurlburt – Chatham House)
During his first week in office, US President Trump took aim at the norms and institutions of the post-Cold War order, from global management of climate and health to international trade rules. For a decade or more, big players – including Washington – have edged away from the global governance ambitions set in the more internationalist 1990s. Trump’s actions therefore portend a permanent shift in the landscape – not just a switch that flips back in four years’ time. Although the pullout from the Paris Climate Accords was expected, many observers were more surprised by Trump pulling the US out of the World Health Organization, and out of negotiations on a pandemic treaty intended to prevent another global crisis on the scale of COVID-19. – Can the international order survive Trump 2.0? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank