Geostrategic magazine (3-4 August 2024)

Daily from global think tanks

COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

The Global Eye

Africa

(World Bank) It is a well-known fact: with access to electricity comes better health, education, and connectivity, as well as higher productivity and incomes. Unfortunately, in Sub-Saharan Africa alone, as many as 571 million people still lack access to electricity. To help close this gap, the World Bank Group committed to providing electricity access to 250 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 and announced a new partnership at the 2024 Annual Meetings with the African Development Bank, bringing this commitment to 300 million people.

The Global Electrification Platform 3.0: More Data for More Accurate Least-cost Electricity Access Plans (worldbank.org)

Africa and Asia

(Jef L. Leroy, Lynnette Neufeld, Stella Nordhagen, and Sydney Honeycutt – International Food Policy Research Institute) Food systems play an important role in shaping our diets. Recently, there has been growing attention to food systems transformation, which involves changing different components of global food systems to make nutritious foods more accessible to consumers. At the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit, more than 100 countries pledged to transform their food systems, a clear recognition of the importance of healthy diets in preventing all forms of malnutrition worldwide.

Evaluating impacts: Lessons from food systems interventions across Africa and Asia | IFPRI

Armenia

(World Bank) Armenia’s agriculture and food systems face multiple challenges related to climate, environment, and competitiveness, with additional difficulties stemming from being a landlocked nation. In the coming decade, a reduction in the seasonal distribution of rainfall is predicted, which will cause a significant drop in the productivity of rainfed crops. Yields from irrigated agriculture are also projected to fall.

Climate Change | Public investment priorities in Armenia’s agriculture (worldbank.org)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

(Antonella Bassani, Akihiko (Aki) Nishio – World Bank) We had the honor last week to walk together across the iconic Old Bridge, or Stari Most, which connects the two parts of the city of Mostar in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Two decades after the reconstruction of this unique symbol of reconciliation, Mostar’s message to the world remains as powerful as ever: peace and progress are attainable, but they require scaling up efforts and partnerships to promote economic development and address the root causes of fragility and conflict.

A bridge to peace: Lessons from Mostar for a fragile world (worldbank.org)

China – Central Asia

(Center for the National Interest) The Chinese and Central Asian peoples have interacted for more than two millennia; Russia, by contrast, has only been active in the region for the last two centuries. Since gaining independence in 1991, the Central Asian states have again forged steadily growing ties with China. These ties advanced significantly in 2013 when Xi Jinping formally announced the Silk Road Economic Belt—part of the Belt and Road Initiative—in Kazakhstan. China’s expanding presence in the region however has raised new concerns among neighboring countries over economic, political, and cultural sovereignty. In light of Xi Jinping’s recent visit for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual meeting in Astana and an official visit to Tajikistan, three experts will review the evolving dynamics of these relationships.

The China-Central Asia Crossroads – Center for the National Interest (cftni.org)

European Union – Peru

(World Bank) Starting on December 30, the European Union (EU) will impose new environmental requirements on imports of coffee, cocoa, palm oil, soy, beef, wood, and some derived products—many of them originating in low- and middle-income countries. The Deforestation Regulation is part of a broader EU effort to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss, and other countries are considering similar measures. World Bank research shows that the EU Deforestation Regulation’s impact on exports of low- and middle-income countries is likely to be significant. Up to 22 percent of Latin America’s exports to the EU—or 2.3 percent of its total exports —could be affected. Developing country governments and firms – particularly small and medium-sized ones – need technical and financial assistance to comply with the regulation. In Peru, where exports of affected commodities including coffee, cocoa, wood, and palm oil comprise about 12 percent of total shipments to the EU, a World Bank team worked with the government to craft a roadmap to ensure adherence to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), identifying key compliance gaps in Peru’s supply chains.

The impact of European Union Deforestation Regulation: Four lessons from Peru’s Journey (worldbank.org)

Global Governance

(Danielle Resnick – International Food Policy Research Institute) Urbanization is among the major demographic shifts affecting agrifood systems worldwide. With over half of the world’s population living in urban areas—projected to reach 70 percent by 2050—cities face many challenges in providing residents with healthy, affordable food. In fact, of the 2.2 billion people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity, three-quarters live in urban and peri-urban areas. In addition, cities in low- and middle-income countries are often the locus of diet-related noncommunicable diseases and are increasingly experiencing the impacts of climate change, including devastating floods, heat stress, and sea level rise. Worryingly, there has been an increase in conflicts in, and large-scale displacements to, urban centers, leading to massive food insecurity in places like Gaza City, Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo), and Khartoum (Sudan).

Urgent need to strengthen local governance for improved urban agrifood systems | IFPRI

(Milken Institute) A report presents the case for Longevity Cities to tackle the challenges of global population aging. The Milken Institute Future of Aging, alongside Upali Nanda, PhD, and Harris Eyre, MD, PhD, introduce a five-pillar framework, which urges action to optimize environmental exposures, promote brain health, enhance urban livability, leverage emerging technologies, and prioritize equity. The authors stress the intricate link among climate change, health, and longevity, emphasizing the need for innovative cross-sector solutions. The framework underscores the economic impact of brain health, the role of technology in personalized health care, and the significance of community engagement.

Shaping Environments to Shape Us: The Case for Longevity Cities (milkeninstitute.org)

(World Bank) Many countries are being squeezed by increasing interest payments and high debt redemptions. The economic scarring of the pandemic, conflicts around the world, and the abrupt rise in global interest rates have hit low-income countries the hardest. The median low-income country is spending over twice as much on debt service to foreign creditors as a share of revenue than it did ten years ago—roughly 14 percent at end-2023 from 6 percent 10 years earlier. Following years of substantial borrowing, debt redemptions in low-income countries over the near term are almost triple their long-term average: about $60 billion compared to an annual average of $20 billion from 2010 to 2020.

Now Is the Time to Help Countries Faced with Liquidity Challenges (worldbank.org)

(World Bank) Climate change affects all countries – with those affected by fragility and conflict facing a double burden. Not only are settings affected by fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) among the most vulnerable to climate impacts – the interplay between climate change and instability further amplifies the risks and undermines their ability to respond. In fragile contexts, international climate finance can provide a crucial lifeline. Investments in adaptation not only help fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCS) to weather future climate-related shocks; they also help to ensure the long-term effectiveness of efforts to eradicate poverty and promote sustainable development.

Closing The Adaptation Finance Gap in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings (worldbank.org)

(World Bank) Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies what developing economies can do to avoid the “middle-income trap.” Lower-middle-income countries must go beyond investment-driven strategies—they must also adopt modern technologies and successful business practices from abroad and infuse them across their economies. Upper-middle-income countries need to accelerate the shift to innovation, by pushing the global frontiers of technology. This requires reconfiguring economic structures governing enterprises, labor, and energy use—in ways that enable greater economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability.

World Development Report 2024: The Middle-Income Trap (worldbank.org)

(World Bank) New data show that 35% of the global population could not afford a healthy diet in 2022. While this share has decreased since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when 38% were affected, recovery has been slower in lower-income economies. And in low-income economies, where the population rose by 6% over this period, an extra 16 million people found a healthy diet unaffordable in 2022 compared with 2020. Globally, the average cost of a healthy diet — defined as one that meets requirements for energy and food-based dietary guidelines — was $3.96 per person per day in 2022.

Uneven recovery post-COVID: healthy diets remain out of reach for many in lower income countries (worldbank.org)

(World Bank) Despite significant progress in recent years, achieving gender equality in economic participation remains an aspiration rather than reality for women around the world, as numerous barriers persist, hindering their full inclusion in the workforce. The challenges are complex and multifaceted, ranging from violence against women (VAW) to systemic barriers that limit access to opportunities and enabling resources. As we delve into the results of impact evaluations focused on lowering constraints to women’s economic inclusion, it becomes evident that targeted interventions hold immense potential to dismantle systemic barriers and foster greater participation.

Empowering women: Impact evaluation insights into labor force participation and economic inclusion (worldbank.org)

India

(Lakshmy Ramakrishnan – Observer Research Foundation) The recurrence of the deadly Nipah virus has placed India on high alert and is indicative of the urgent need to understand health security with an ecological perspective. The One Health strategy emphasises on “an integrated, unifying approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimise the health of people, animals, and ecosystems. It recognises the health of humans, domestic and wild animals, plants, and the wider environment (including ecosystems) are closely linked and interdependent.” It aims to bring to the foray a multidisciplinary dimension to health security with a key emphasis on the interdependence and interconnectedness between humans, animals, and the environment. While policymakers and international organisations promote One Health, in reality, however, there exists a gap between theory and practice.

Incorporating “One Health” into the health-security agenda (orfonline.org)

(Sauradeep Bag – Observer Research Foundation) The Budget’s tax changes aim to curb speculative trading and align with economic conditions but have temporarily dampened market sentiment due to policy stability concerns. On 23 July, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled the Union Budget for 2024, marking her seventh consecutive presentation and the first under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s newly re-elected administration. The Budget emphasises targeted support for critical sectors, including the economically disadvantaged, women, and farmers.

Union Budget 2024: Evaluating fiscal policy shifts and financial market implications (orfonline.org)

(Joseph Glauber, Abdullah Mamun – International Food Policy Research Institute) In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice. Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024.

After a year, India’s rice export restrictions continue to fuel high prices | IFPRI

India – China

(Harsh V Pant, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The Government’s Economic Survey 2023-24 dropped a political clanger by making a case that getting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China could help India improve its participation in global supply chains through exports.

Time for a nuanced debate on Chinese FDI (orfonline.org)

India – Russia – China

(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Indian PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia garnered much attention worldwide. While international media has largely focused on the reactions from the West, what is missing from the current discourse is how the visit was perceived in Beijing, supposedly Russia’s closest partner in today’s geopolitics. China’s strategic community closely followed the meeting. Even as the Chinese side relished the ringside view of how the visit brought the rift between India and the United States (US) out in the open, however, the key debates and discussions within China were focused somewhere else.

Chinese assessment of PM Modi’s Russia visit (orfonline.org)

Malawi

(Joachim De Weerdt, Brian Dillon, Emmanuel Hami, Bjorn Van Campenhout, and Leocardia Nabwire – International Food Policy Research Institute) In rural markets of developing countries, agricultural commodity prices exhibit seasonal fluctuations, with low prices at harvest, followed by steady rises to an annual high shortly before lean-season planting. Ideally, an economically rational farmer should delay sales until prices recover. Instead, it is often observed that smallholder farmers sell most of their marketable surplus right after harvest, and then end up repurchasing the same commodities for family sustenance later when prices are higher.

Behavioral explanations for the sell-low-buy-high puzzle in smallholder market participation: Lessons from a field experiment in Malawi | IFPRI

(Askar Mukashov, Eleanor Jones – International Food Policy Research Institute) Climate change is transforming the global landscape, creating unprecedented challenges for developing countries. These challenges are particularly acute in regions where economies heavily depend on agriculture, such as sub-Saharan Africa, where climate impacts such as droughts and extreme weather are increasingly disrupting farming economies and food systems. One of the critical questions facing policymakers is how to best navigate these challenges to ensure sustainable development: Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture? A recent IFPRI study published in Climatic Change explores this issue by comparing agriculture-led and non-agriculture-led development strategies in Malawi, a country highly vulnerable to climate variability—finding that the former outperform the latter despite climate uncertainties.

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi | IFPRI

Middle East

(Alexandra Braverman, Johanna Moore, Katherine Wells, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Iran: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on August 3 claiming that Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran using a short-range projectile equipped with an explosive warhead. The New York Times reported on August 3 that Iran has arrested over twenty-four individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officers, and staff at the guesthouse, in connection to the security failure that led to the killing of Haniyeh.
Iran and Hezbollah: Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have refused to speak with US and Arab diplomats trying to deescalate between Israel and Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal on August 3. The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States and Israel are preparing for an “unpredictable,” broader, and more complex attack than Iran’s April 2024 drone and missile strike on Israel.
Gaza: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck a Hamas command and control site in Hamama School, Sheikh Radwan, Gaza City on August 3. Hamas used the site to plan attacks on Israeli forces, manufacture and store weapons, and train fighters.
West Bank: The IDF killed nine Palestinian fighters, including a Hamas commander in Tulkarm, in two separate airstrikes on August 3.
Southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff on August 2.
Yemen: The United Kingdom Maritime Transit Organization (UKMTO) reported a small explosion in close proximity to merchant vessel M/V Groton around 170 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen.
Syria: The IDF reportedly struck a weapons convoy on August 3 west of Qusayir, Syria on route to the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon.

Iran Update, August 3, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) While Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran’s capital Tehran mere hours after the swearing-in ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian has created shockwaves across the world, the response to the killing is expected to be imminent, and, possibly, tectonic. Haniyeh was, after all, the political chief of a group labelled a terror entity by the US and many others. In fact, some had designated the group so long before they listed Al Qaeda in the same bracket. The likes of Al Qaeda saw a more rapid ascent in using violence globally, culminating with the 9/11 terror attacks in the US, which also launched a two-decade-long ‘war on terror’. The likes of Hamas, on the other hand, confined themselves around the issue of both the sovereignty of Palestine and a fundamental ideological aversion to the state of Israel.

Why The Killing Of Hamas Chief Haniyeh Is Shocking But Not Unexpected (orfonline.org)

(Crisis Group) A series of violent events over the past week have taken the Middle East closer to the brink of all-out war. The latest of these was the killing, on 31 July, of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’s political wing and a high-level guest of the Iranian government, in the Iranian capital Tehran on the day of the new Iranian president’s inauguration. The attack on Haniyeh leaves the region awaiting the retaliation that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised and reportedly greenlighted. While Israel has not officially claimed the hit, it has given every indirect indication that it was the author. Separately, a day before the Haniyeh operation, Israel struck and killed a top Hizbollah commander, along with several civilians and a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in a Beirut suburb where many of the Iran-backed organisation’s supporters live.

Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East | Crisis Group

(Wolf-Christian Paes, Hasan Alhasan – IISS) In the early evening of Saturday, 20 July 2024, at least a dozen Israeli Air Force (IAF) aircraft, including F-15 and F-35 fighter jets, conducted air strikes against 10 targets in the Red Sea port of Hudaydah, killing eight civilians and wounding more than 80. The attack, dubbed Operation Outstretched Arm, marks the first time that Israel directly attacked Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The attack targeted a fuel depot and a power station as well as some of the container cranes in the harbour, destruction which was visible in satellite images.

Fireworks over Hudaydah: assessing the strategic impact of Israel’s attack (iiss.org)

(Asher Orkaby – The National Interest) Detaining UN and NGO workers, intensifying attacks on global shipping, and earning the ire of regional and global powers. Are these the behaviors of a state acting out of desperation or the machinations of non-state actors consolidating power and flexing unchecked local military prowess? This is precisely the question being debated by analysts regarding the actions of the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen.

The Red Sea Crisis has Consolidated Houthi Control over Yemen | The National Interest

NATO

(IISS) Meia Nouwens, IISS Senior Fellow for Chinese Security and Defence Policy, is joined by IISS experts Henry Boyd, Fenella McGerty and Karl Dewey to dissect the critical outcomes of the NATO Leaders Summit held in Washington DC.

NATO’s strategic pivot: defence spending and future challenges (iiss.org)

Russia’s War in Ukraine

(Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on August 2 – Ukrainian forces also conducted a series of successful drone strikes against likely military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on August 3 – The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia’s reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making – Putin’s willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia’s increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components – Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar – Russian authorities continue efforts to financially incentivize Russian military service in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

(Stavros Atlamazoglou – The National Interest) The ongoing war in Ukraine has forced both Ukrainian and Russian forces to innovate due to severe shortages in weapons systems. One such Russian innovation is the “turtle tank,” a modified T-72 main battle tank outfitted with makeshift armor resembling a turtle’s shell.

Russia’s Turtle Tanks are Going to War in Ukraine and It Could Get Ugly | The National Interest

(Stavros Atlamazoglou – The National Interest) The war in Ukraine has taken an unexpected turn, forcing Russia to scramble for military resources and turn to allies like Iran and North Korea for support. Isolated on the global stage due to its illegal invasion and allegations of war crimes, Russia has received suicide drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea.

Russia Is Desperate in Ukraine: Now Using North Korea ‘Tank-Killer’ Weapons | The National Interest

Russia – West

(Nigel Gould-Davies – IISS) The prisoner exchange was an exceptionally complex agreement. It was not only the largest such exchange since the Cold War but the most multinational in living memory. Protracted negotiations took place among Western partners as well as with Russia – most notably, between the US and Germany. The latter held Vadim Krasikov, the Russian intelligence agent convicted of murdering a Chechen dissident in Berlin, whose return was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main goal.

The meaning of the prisoner exchange between Russia and the West (iiss.org)

South Asia

(World Bank) Extreme heat is one of the deadliest natural hazards, with South Asia seeing over 110,000 heat-related excess deaths a year in the last two decades – a worrisome statistic as 2024 is shaping up to be increasingly likely to be the warmest year on record. While heat is often thought of as an indiscriminate killer, not everyone is impacted by heat equally. Women bear a disproportionate burden of heat’s physical, social, and financial effects as temperatures rise. Women are at higher risk for heat-related illness and have higher death rates than men during heat waves due to physiological differences, disparities in access to electricity and water, and social norms around women as caregivers.

Heat and gender: Enhancing her resilience to rising temperatures (worldbank.org)

Sudan 

(World Bank) The adoption of a One Health approach in Sudan has the potential to create more resilient and integrated solutions to address the nexus of health, environmental and economic challenges, particularly in the aftermath of the current conflict situation. The One Health approach recognizes the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health and emphasizes the collaboration between multiple sectors to address health issues that affect all three domains. We recently published the landmark study, Towards a One Health Approach in Sudan: Understanding the Nexus of Climate Change, Land Use, Zoonotic Diseases, and Human Health that gains its significance as the first of its kind to be carried out under the One Health perspective in Sudan, spotlighting a unified path to health in harmony with nature.

One Health Approach-afe- Unleashing Sudan’s Potential for Better Human, Animal, and Environmental Health Outcomes (worldbank.org)

USA

(John Garner, Mallory Block – Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board) This November’s election is the first in which generative AI is widely available, presenting a challenge for policymakers in how best to establish guardrails on the use of this technology. In particular, in the absence of federal legislation regulating the use of deepfakes – realistic yet fabricated media – in political ads, states have spearheaded this effort. This year, 17 states have enacted legislation on the issue, bringing the total number of states with deepfake-related legislation to 23.

Policy Backgrounders (conference-board.org)

(Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) An unexpected turn of events thrust Kamala Harris to the forefront of the US presidential race, rapidly changing the election dynamic. As vice president, she largely remained overshadowed and was criticised for the portfolios she handled, especially for her role in tackling immigration from Central American countries. Now as the likely presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, her appeal and probability both seem boosted significantly. As a woman candidate, she has the advantage of vastly different political sentiments than Hillary Clinton when she ran for president in 2016. Clinton and Harris represent the two ends of a significantly varied Democratic Party. For one, the former had the disadvantage of deep-seated elitism that top Democrats represent while the latter’s support is witnessing a bulge among women, youth and Black voters. There has been a tremendous transformation in the political significance of Harris with the change in her political position. Her entry has saved the Democratic Party from criticism about the age of the presidential candidate, another primary being held to nominate the presidential nominee, and most of all from an ignominious defeat under President Joe Biden.

Kamala Harris’ America (orfonline.org)

(Maya Carlin – The National Interest) The U.S. Navy’s Seawolf-class submarines, comprising three nuclear-powered fast-attack vessels, are renowned for their speed, stealth, and firepower. Capable of reaching 35 knots underwater, these submarines remain the fastest in the Navy’s arsenal, making them highly relevant even decades after their inception.

How Fast is the U.S. Navy’s Seawolf-Class Submarines? | The National Interest

(Harrison Kass – The National Interest) The B-1B Lancer, the fastest bomber in the U.S. Air Force’s inventory, is capable of reaching speeds of Mach 1.2, or over 900 miles per hour at sea level.

How Fast Is the U.S. Air Force’s B-1B Lancer Bomber? | The National Interest

(Joshua Levine – The National Interest) The Biden administration and a bicameral, bipartisan majority of Congress are working to promote semiconductor production in the United States. This would be news to the Department of Justice (DOJ), which is opening an investigation into American chip darling Nvidia. Antitrust scrutiny of Nvidia detracts from American efforts to promote economic and national security regarding semiconductor production, undermining the administration’s priorities. Such a course should be abandoned.

The DOJ’s Ill-Conceived Nvidia Investigation | The National Interest

(Desmond Lachman – The National Interest) History will not judge the Powell Federal Reserve well should the economy now succumb to a recession. Posterity will not only ask why it allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle by delaying interest rate hikes in 2021 but also why it seemed to learn nothing from that experience and allowed the economy to fall into recession despite hewing to a backward-looking monetary policy.

Recession Coming? Why the Federal Reserve’s High Interest Rate Policy May Backfire | The National Interest

(Julia Gledhill – The National Interest) As a matter of practice, military contractors have overcharged the Pentagon for years—at the expense of both taxpayers and the military. However, several members of Congress are working to end the practice. Last year, Senators Warren (D-MA), Braun (R-IN), and Grassley (R-IA) teamed up with Reps. Garamendi (D-CA) and Deluzio (D-PA) to introduce legislation that will address the legal loopholes that enable military price gouging.

How the Defense Industry Price Gouges the Pentagon | The National Interest

(R Street) In the past five years, tragic police-citizen interactions have led to increased community engagement, as citizens across the country rallied to protest police violence. In this changing environment, law enforcement agencies have begun experimenting with new types of de-escalation training with support from federal funding. This paper explores the current landscape of de-escalation training in law enforcement, its uses and effectiveness, and the existing availability and impact of federal grants. We focus on understanding how funding has changed since 2020 and what opportunities exist to improve upon existing practices; assessing police perceptions of the grant process and efficacy of funding; and making recommendations on the types of de-escalation programs that should be made eligible for funding as the federal curriculum is developed. We identify barriers to de-escalation implementation and training funding in communities where it is most needed and make recommendations to improve awareness of and access to federal resources. The recommendations are intended to help reduce police use of force by ensuring federal funding streams are effective.

Exploring De-escalation Training: Programs, Impact, and Resourcing – R Street Institute

(R Street) Why is American politics dysfunctional? Is it because the Constitution prevents a majority of Americans from enacting their preferred policies without compromising with a minority of the population? Is the Constitution’s structure incompatible with the nation’s increasing diversification? What are the pros and cons of having voting laws administered at the state and local level?

Who rules America? – R Street Institute

(Lynn Parramore – Institute for New Economic Thinking) July 19 dawned with despair as CrowdStrike’s update sparked a seismic cybersecurity disaster. A miniscule code glitch transformed Windows computers into ticking time bombs, causing widespread crashes that paralyzed airlines, banks, hospitals, and government agencies. The fallout was massive: over $5 billion in direct losses for Fortune 500 companies, with healthcare and banking sectors facing nearly $3 billion in combined damage. Stranded passengers, disrupted 911 centers, and delayed surgeries underscored the disaster’s profound impact. Indirect losses for people whose plans and activities were interrupted will likely run even higher. This debacle casts a glaring spotlight on the fragility of the cybersecurity industry — a brutal reminder of the risks inherent in a market where consolidation, lack of oversight, and inadequate testing breed vulnerability. With firms like CrowdStrike holding sway over critical systems, a single misstep can set off a chain reaction of chaos — a wake-up call for lawmakers and regulators to step up their game.

CrowdStrike Lessons: Liability Shields Fuel Risky Practices, Expert Warns | Institute for New Economic Thinking (ineteconomics.org)

USA – China

(Milken Institute) Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in the US and China. Of the top 10 (by incidence) cancers in China, four are women’s cancers, including breast and cervical cancers. Despite successes in cancer control and prevention in both countries, there is more to do. The US and Chinese governments have announced a commitment to health as a potential area of bilateral cooperation. To inform that commitment and recognize the importance of and relative underinvestment in women’s cancers, the Milken Institute has launched an initiative, “Coalition-Building between the US and China on Women’s Cancer Detection, Treatment, and Care.” Through this initiative, the Institute seeks to harness the power of the nonprofit, public, and private sectors to address barriers to improving cancer patients’ outcomes.

Coalition-Building between the US and China on Women’s Cancer Detection, Treatment, and Care (milkeninstitute.org)

Venezuela

(Phil Gunson – Crisis Group) Venezuelan election authorities proclaimed incumbent Nicolás Maduro victor in the 28 July presidential poll despite evidence brandished by the opposition showing its candidate won by a landslide. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson explains what the ensuing outcry means for Venezuela’s protracted crisis.

Venezuela: What Next after its Election Uproar? | Crisis Group

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