From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Abyei (Sudan-South Sudan border)
(Security Council Report) On 14 November the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) for another year, until 15 November 2025. (Abyei is the disputed area along the Sudan-South Sudan border.) The draft text also extends the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan/South Sudan border until 15 November 2025. – UN Interim Security Force for Abyei: Vote on Mandate Renewal Resolution : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Afghanistan
(UN News) A public execution carried out in a sports stadium in Afghanistan drew condemnation from senior UN officials on Wednesday, who demanded an immediate end to such practices by the ruling Taliban. – Public execution in Afghanistan condemned as ‘clear human rights violation’ | UN News
Africa
(Danielle Resnick, Landry Signé – Brookings) Before the end of 2024, 22 African countries will have held some form of electoral contest, either for president, national legislators, or local leaders. As of November, this record year for elections across countries with vastly different levels of political pluralism has resulted in some outcomes that were already foregone conclusions, such as Kais Saied’s landslide victory in Tunisia. Yet in other cases, voting outcomes were more surprising, with the potential to reshape political landscapes in new ways. Most surprisingly, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has continuously ruled the diamond-rich country since independence in the 1960s, was ousted in elections at the end of October. Earlier in the same month, a new party called PODEMOS came second in Mozambique’s polls and displaced RENAMO, which has been the main opposition party since 1992. And in May, South Africa’s elections pushed the African National Congress (ANC) into a coalition government for the first time since 1994. – Democratic resilience in Africa: Lessons from 2024 elections
Arctic – China – Russia
(Abbie Tingstad, Stephanie Pezard, Yuliya Shokh – RAND Corporation) To what extent might China and Russia form partnerships in the Arctic region, and what factors might limit the development of their relationship? Although the United States has had Russia as a maritime neighbor in the Arctic since 1867, the growing presence of China in the region as a Russian partner has led to a rare situation in which two competitive — and potentially hostile — states are in very close proximity to North America. – China-Russia Relations in the Arctic: What Are the Northern Limits of Their Partnership? | RAND
Argentina
(Jeff Amrish Ritoe – The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies) Even though Argentina holds vast reserves of critical raw materials like lithium and copper, the country never fully gained the confidence of foreign investors. The Milei government is well aware of the fact that Argentina’s poor economic performance, political instability and tendency to nationalize assets in the past have made international investors weary to invest in Argentina. – A new Golden Age for Argentinian Mining? Why RIGI has the potential to make Argentina a critical raw materials powerhouse – HCSS
Australia – China
(James Laurenceson – Australian Institute of International Affairs) An informed critique of the Albanese government’s “stabilisation” agenda with China might have a national interest benefit. But the one being delivered by Australia’s China hawks degrades public debate by misrepresenting what the government is doing and saying. – Just How “Naïve” and “Fuzzy” is the Albanese Government’s Approach to China? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Brazil
(World Resources Institute) Brazil announced its new commitment to reduce emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035, as compared to 2005. In absolute terms, this target translates to a reduction of 850 million to 1.05 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035. – STATEMENT: Brazil Releases New 2035 Emissions Reduction Target | World Resources Institute
Central African Republic
(Security Council Report) On 14 November, the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) for another year, until 15 November 2025. – Central African Republic: Vote on MINUSCA’s Mandate Renewal : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Climate Action
(Michael Doust, Pandora Batra, Sophia Sanniti, Chaandi Malhotra – World Resources Institute) Cities are home to more than half the world’s population: 4.4 billion people commuting, working, eating, shopping, and using light, heat and air conditioning. As a result, cities collectively produce over 70% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions warming the planet. They are also on the frontlines of the climate crisis, experiencing the increasingly devastating effects of storms, floods, extreme heat and wildfires firsthand. Local and regional governments will play a central role in delivering solutions that can correct the world’s climate trajectory — from electrifying public transport to reimagining parks and green spaces. Research shows that cities could cut their emissions 90% by 2050 using measures that are already available. But doing so isn’t easy or cheap. Indeed, two-thirds of this potential hinges on supportive policy and regulation at the national and regional levels. National climate plans have often overlooked opportunities for action at the city, state and regional levels in the past. That’s beginning to change as cities rise to a more prominent spot on the global climate agenda. Now, the question is how national governments will redesign their new climate strategies under the Paris Agreement, due in 2025, to help city and local governments meet their full potential. Some countries are already proving how stronger collaboration between levels of government can unlock powerful results for the planet. From India to Kenya, Chile and beyond, these leaders show how multilevel partnership can drive climate action and ambition at the scale needed. – How Countries’ NDCs Can Unlock Local Climate Action | World Resources Institute
(Nadia Shah Naidoo, Sophia Sanniti, Chaandi Malhotra, Michael Doust, Pandora Batra – World Resources Institute) Climate change poses an unprecedented threat to societies and ecosystems worldwide. Without the rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the globe and bold action to reduce climate impacts, the world will face devastating consequences to be felt for generations to come. Yet current climate commitments are not in line with pathways needed to achieve net zero emissions and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries can significantly enhance the ambition of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through a more collaborative and integrated approach with subnational governments to fully align with the Paris Agreement goals. This document supports national governments in the facilitation of input from subnational governments in the NDC development process. It has been written with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 2025 NDC deadline in mind, but it will support countries beyond this milestone and can be considered a tool for designing all successive NDCs. – Stronger NDCs With Cities, States, and Regions: Recommendations for National Governments | World Resources Institute
(UN News) COP29 talks in Baku on Wednesday turned to small island nations facing an existential threat from our warming planet, as UN Secretary-General António Guterres insisted that they “deserve support to deal with a crisis [that they] have done next to nothing to create”. – COP29 climate talks: Major emitters must right ‘colossal injustice’ on island nations, says UN chief | UN News
(Byford Tsang – European Council on Foreign Relations) At the COP29 in Baku this week, all eyes will be on a new deal on financing developing countries to tackle the climate crisis. But another critical element to watch is how nations are setting their 2035 emissions reduction targets, which must be submitted to the United Nations by February next year. European policymakers should pay particular attention to China’s plan. – Carbon diplomacy: How Europe can steer China’s climate path | ECFR
(UN News) Climate talks at COP29 in Baku on Wednesday turned to the pressing issue of how to manage the demand for minerals essential to producing electric vehicles and solar panels without triggering a “stampede of greed” that exploits local communities and crushes the poor. – COP29: Energy transition must not trigger a ‘stampede of greed’ that crushes the poor | UN News
(Sebastien Dessus – World Bank blog) Global progress in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions benefits from the flexibility given to countries to set their own level of ambition and choose policy instruments. This nationally determined approach, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, helps maximize the effectiveness of climate action by allowing each country to tailor its efforts to its administrative ability and unique political context. At the same time, this flexibility calls for border carbon adjustments (BCAs) to prevent “carbon leakage,” which occurs when one country’s relatively stricter environmental regulations create an incentive to import goods from countries where regulations are looser. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism introduced by the European Union is the first of its kind, and other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, are considering similar programs. – Reconciling countries’ varying climate ambitions with a transparent, fair, and efficient global trading system
European Union
(Tobias Gehrke – European Council on Foreign Relations) Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt, once the poster child of Europe’s green industry and battery independence, has narrowly avoided bankruptcy prompted by a liquidity crunch – despite a remarkable $55 billion order book and $15 billion raised in debt, equity, and subsidies. Now Northvolt’s near-death experience is raising serious concerns about the future of made-in-Europe batteries. For the European Union to successfully maintain a sector critical to the continent’s industrial future, energy transition, and critical infrastructure, it must urgently develop and implement a decisive economic security doctrine which secures Europe’s place as among the leaders in the global battery race. – Recharge or regret: Why the EU must act decisively to secure Europe’s struggling battery industry | ECFR
France – Poland
(Adam Hsakou – German Marshall Fund of the United States) By early 2025, France and Poland will have signed the so-called “Nancy Treaty”, a holistic bilateral agreement expected to foster strategic cooperation in areas ranging from security and economy to energy and culture. On a symbolic note, France will also be the partner country of the 2025 edition of the increasingly influential Warsaw Security Forum. – Franco-Polish Rapprochement: A Window of Opportunity | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Germany
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) Internal disagreements between the three parties of Germany’s traffic-light coalition reached a tipping point. The future looks uncertain for Europe’s powerhouse. – The end of Germany’s traffic-light coalition
Indian Ocean Region (Colombo Security Conclave)
(Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation) The Indian Ocean region presents complex realities. It is a vast maritime expanse with unique spatial and strategic characteristics. The vastness of its geography is often suggested as a reason for the lack of any substantial regional thinking in the Indian Ocean. In this region, nation-states continue to pursue their national interests, often resulting in divergent policy outlooks. In this context, the Colombo Security Conclave presents an opportunity to forge a meaningful forum for enhancing regional cooperation in the Indian Ocean. By way of membership, the grouping consists of countries within South Asia and the Western Indian Ocean. But it can serve as an important framework to inspire a broader maritime security architecture in the Indian Ocean. – Crucial forum
Iran
(UN News) Civic space in the Islamic Republic of Iran is shrinking, as human rights defenders and journalists continue to be targeted and charged for “vaguely defined national security offences”, Mai Sato, the independent UN expert on the human rights situation in the country has said. – Iran: Civic space shrinks as executions rise, warns independent rights expert | | UN News
Japan
(Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) The LDP retains its leadership with PM Shigeru Ishiba; however, a loss of support amidst corruption charges, inflation, and demographic crises makes the path forward unstable. – Shigeru Ishiba reconfirmed as Japan’s Prime Minister amid political uncertainty
Latin America
(Gracelin Baskaran, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Fabio Murgia – Center for Strategic & Internationsl Studies) Copper is vital to U.S. national, economic, and energy security. Everything—from clean energy technologies, electronics, and automotives, to power transmission infrastructure, data centers, and defense systems—depends on copper. However, the United States only mines 5 percent of the world’s copper. Latin America, which cumulatively mines nearly half (46 percent) of the world’s raw copper—the largest share of any continent—holds significant potential as a sourcing partner. Chile and Peru have the two largest copper reserves globally. – Latin America: The World’s Copper Stronghold
Middle East
(UN News) Reports of ongoing bombardments, likely starvation and despair continue to emerge from Gaza where many basic daily staples now “barely exist”, UN humanitarians warned on Wednesday. – Middle East: Gaza markets ‘in decay’ as starvation looms | UN News
Kobi Michael – INSS) A comparative analysis of four polls, conducted with the requisite caution due to methodological limitations, reveals fundamental differences in the findings in relation to similar questions asked across the different polls. This analysis especially highlights the dialectic expressed in the criticism of Hamas and the dissatisfaction with its functioning; the decline in the popularity of Yahya Sinwar (before he was killed) and Hamas alongside increased support for Hamas compared to Fatah; and the support for continuing the armed struggle led by Hamas. Palestinian society in the Gaza Strip is more critical of Hamas than Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem and views the Palestinian Authority, Fatah, and Abu Mazen more positively. This may lay the groundwork for eliminating Hamas’s regime in the Gaza Strip and gaining support for an alternative civilian regime to Hamas. However, the findings of the polls indicate a solid psychological foundation of support for the armed struggle and broad opposition to a two-state solution. Mirror images regarding the level of support for a two-state solution can also be found in the Israeli public. This suggests that the validity of the two-state paradigm has declined at present, and it is doubtful whether it will become valid again in the foreseeable future unless a fundamental change occurs in the conditions and moods of both populations. – What Can We Learn From the Public Opinion Polls in Palestinian Society? | INSS
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is increasingly enacting restrictive laws and policies under the vague definition of “destructive ideology” that target not only political dissent but also aspects of everyday life in an attempt to align society with “traditional” Orthodox values. The Kremlin’s policies and rhetoric, including support for neo-fascist groups and anti-immigrant campaigns, are creating divisions among ethnic Russians, non-ethnic Russians, and various minority groups. These repressive measures aim to strengthen loyalty and cohesion but are causing growing resentment among the public, including groups previously supportive of the Kremlin. – Kremlin to Increase Frivolous Repression on Russians’ Personal Lives – Jamestown
Russia – Afghanistan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow announced that it plans to remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations to normalize relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government to combat terrorism in the region. Russia sees the Taliban as its best partner to counter the threat from the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), which it views as a more imminent threat to regional stability than the Taliban itself. Russia frames its ties with the Taliban as a humanitarian response to Afghanistan’s crisis, pledging essential aid to mitigate criticism despite international concerns over the Taliban’s human rights violations, especially regarding women’s rights. – Kremlin to Remove Taliban From List of Terrorist Organizations – Jamestown
Russia – China
(John C.K.Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) As Western sanctions increasingly isolate Russia, it has become highly dependent on China for trade and economic support, particularly in energy exports sold at discounted prices. China has capitalized on Russia’s isolation by expanding its investments and economic influence within Russia, with Chinese companies increasing their share of Russian market participation. This economic relationship shows an imbalance, with China benefiting from favorable trade terms. Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine have deeply impacted Russia’s economy, as seen in the weakening ruble, increasing reliance on China, and signs of Russia potentially becoming a subordinate economic partner to China rather than an equal. – Russia’s Fiscal Dependence on China Grows – Jamestown
Southeast Asia – BRICS
(Prashanth Parameswaran – Observer Research Foundation) The interest of Southeast Asian states in BRICS should be viewed from a broader perspective of regional and global institutional flux. – BRICS Southeast Asia hype belies wider Indo-Pacific institutional stakes
Sri Lanka
(Anchita Borthakur – Vivekananda Internationl Foundation) On September 21 this year Sri Lanka held its first presidential election after the Aragalaya protests amid significant political and economic challenges, marking a crucial moment in the country’s journey toward economic recovery and political stability. This election which resulted in the victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Party (NPP) —a socialist political alliance— took place against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis that saw a strong voter turnout reflecting the people’s desire for change and effective governance. Dissanayake won the election driven by widespread public frustration with Sri Lanka’s traditional political elite, as many called for change and an end to political corruption. In Sri Lanka’s presidential election history, this was the first direct election in which no candidate received more than 50 percent of the total votes, leading to a second round of counting to determine the second-preference votes for the two frontrunners—Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Finally, Dissanayake secured 42.3 percent of the votes, while his closest rival, Premadasa, garnered 32.8 percent. Former/incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe was pushed into the third place with 17.3 percent of votes. – A New Era for Sri Lanka? The November Parliamentary Election | Vivekananda International Foundation
Sub-Saharan Africa
(Athene Laws, Faten Saliba, Can Sever, Luc Tucker – IMF blogs) As the rest of the world grapples with aging populations, Africa’s population is booming. By 2030, half of all new entrants into the global labor force will come from sub-Saharan Africa, requiring the creation of up to 15 million new jobs annually. – The Clock is Ticking on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urgent Job Creation Challenge
Ukraine
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures. Ukraine is advancing its own long-range weaponry, including modified drones, which aims to reduce reliance on foreign arms and provide Ukraine with greater autonomy in targeting Russian positions, even if restrictions are placed on international weapon supplies. The development of Ukrainian-made long-range missiles has economic and strategic benefits, stimulating the defense sector and creating high-tech production jobs. These weapons could serve as a future deterrent against renewed aggression, aligning with Ukraine’s long-term security strategy. – Long-range Capabilities Continue to be Key Deterrent for Ukraine – Jamestown
USA
(David Lubin – Chatham House) President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar – which is expensive already – becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial instability. – Donald Trump’s policies risk making the US dollar a source of global instability | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Christina DeConcini, Jennifer Rennicks, Gabby Hyman – World Resources Institute) With President Trump’s recent election victory, the United States faces a shifting policy landscape. The potential negative repercussions for climate and environmental action are gargantuan. We’ve seen this show before: In his first term, Trump gutted federal climate initiatives while attempting to roll back 125 environmental protections critical to safeguarding people and the planet. While many of these attempts were overturned or halted in the courts, a second Trump presidency will likely be more successful in undermining laws and regulations designed to protect the climate, air, water and vulnerable communities. – Climate Action Opportunities and Setbacks Under Trump | World Resources Institute
(Gabriel R. Sanchez, Kwadwo Frimpong – Brookings) America’s evolving demographics have long influenced the outcome of presidential elections, but one subgroup within the electorate–foreign-born or first-generation immigrant voters–has been relatively understudied in the mainstream political sphere. Even amidst rising xenophobic rhetoric and being scapegoated for many of the country’s challenges, certain segments of the migrant base, who have traditionally leaned Democratic, are showing signs of shifting to the right. As the country’s racial and cultural dynamics continue to evolve, new Americans, similar to their predecessors from past generations, will undoubtedly continue to play a critical role in U.S. politics for years to come. – America’s immigrant voters and the 2024 presidential election
(William H. Frey – Brookings) Analyses of 2024 election exit polls, particularly by Republican-leaning pundits, are making the claim that President-elect Donald Trump’s strong showing has transformed his party’s base into a new, powerful multiracial coalition. Aside from benefitting from the continued solid backing of white working-class voters (especially men), Trump made unexpected strides among Latino or Hispanic voters and, to a lesser degree, Black men. This is despite Trump’s long-standing history of racial and ethnic slurs against immigrants and minorities, includes not disavowing a comedian’s damaging remarks against Puerto Rico at a pre-election rally. – Trump gained some minority voters, but the GOP is hardly a multiracial coalition
(William A. Galston – Brookings) As in 2020, pollsters were off not because the final averages overestimated Harris’s support—they didn’t—but because they undercounted Trump’s. Combining the findings from the three most recent presidential elections, I conclude that today’s polling instruments and techniques are not well designed to measure the kinds of voters for which Trump has a distinctive appeal. It is very possible that the transformation of the Republican Party that Trump has engineered means a higher share of hard-to-detect voters than we saw before 2016. – The polls underestimated Trump’s support—again
USA – China – India
(Harsh V. Pant, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) Trump’s return raises questions about his China policy, offering India a chance to attract investment amid U.S.-China tensions. – India needs to leverage Trump’s China antipathy
USA – Iran
(The Soufan Group) The multiple threats posed by Iran, including its support for regional armed non-state actors and expanding its nuclear program, will consume more attention from Trump’s foreign policy officials than it did during his first presidency. Iran’s expanding nuclear program has the potential to trigger military action by Israel, possibly assisted by the United States, to prevent Iran from acquiring a working nuclear weapon. Trump is almost certain to reinstate the “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran that was implemented during his first term, with particular focus on reducing China’s purchases of Iranian oil.
Iran’s expanding ties to Moscow and Beijing and its rapprochement with the Arab Gulf states will complicate Trump’s efforts to pressure Tehran. – Iran Will Factor Heavily in Trump’s Foreign Policy – The Soufan Center
USA – Iran – Israel
(Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, Hugh Lovatt – European Council on Foreign Relations) Donald Trump will start his second presidency facing a devastated Middle East: catastrophic wars in Gaza and Lebanon between Israel and Iranian-backed groups risk provoking a wider conflict between the Israel and Iran even before Trump takes office in January. Over the past year, Israel and Iran have engaged in two unprecedented rounds of direct military attacks against one another. They are now braced for a third round of strikes – with Tehran promising a “teeth-breaking response” to Israel’s 26 October strikes on Iranian military sites. While Trump’s victory has given some pause to both sides regarding their next move, Israel and Iran will likely try to establish an advantage on the ground before his presidency. In doing so, they risk overreaching and plunging the region further into war. – Dangerous manoeuvres: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0 | ECFR
