Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Liam Karr, Avery Borens – Institute for the Study of War) Mali. Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate repelled a Malian-Russian offensive in northern Mali in the deadliest engagement for Russian forces since they arrived in Mali in 2021. The heavy casualties likely have prompted Malian and Russian forces to reconsider how, or if, they can address significant internal challenges to reestablish government control across northern Mali. Russia is highly unlikely to decrease its presence in Mali despite the losses because of the Kremlin’s strategic interests in Mali and the wider Sahel – Niger. Al Qaeda– and IS-linked militants carried out several deadly attacks in late July, marking the deadliest period since the Nigerien junta took power, nearly a year ago. The string of attacks has undermined support for the Nigerien junta and added to other issues that increase the risk of coup plots – Togo. The deadliest terrorist attack in Togo since July 2023 highlights that JNIM is strengthening its support zones and capabilities along the Burkinabe-Togolese border. JNIM has likely strengthened its support zones in Burkina Faso, enabling it to carry out more attacks in northern Togo.
(Afua Osei – Brookings) The 50 honorees on the 2023 Forbes Top Creator List of social media creators, influencers, vloggers, and entrepreneurs generated an estimated USD $700 million in earnings—a figure close to 30% of the Central African Republic GDP. Not only are the creators themselves benefitting, but their countries are capturing significant economic benefits, with the digital economy contributing “10.3% of U.S. gross domestic product, $1.24 trillion of compensation, and 8.0 million jobs.”
Digital entrepreneurship in Africa | Brookings
Asia
(Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, and Alexandros Tsipouras – Institute for the Study of War) The PRC attempted to prevent legislators from at least six countries from attending an international parliamentary forum that works to counter the CCP’s actions to subvert the international order and democratic principles – The PRC and ROC made progress in resolving the handling of the February 14 capsizing incident. The deal is unlikely to result in the PRC decreasing coercive actions against Kinmen – The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the United States and Japan of inciting a “new Cold War” and exaggerating the threat from the PRC following a US-Japan 2+2 dialogue on July 28 – US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum on July 27. Wang called on ASEAN to resist US- and NATO-led “external interference” in the region – The CCG claimed to monitor a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines confirmed that the CCG was present but disputed that it inspected the Philippines ships.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 2, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Australia – China
(Zhuowen Li – East Asia Forum) Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia in June 2024 marks a step towards cautious reconciliation between China and Australia, aimed at stabilising a relationship strained by diplomatic, economic and security challenges. Australia navigates a delicate balancing act, weighing its strategic alliances while engaging in pragmatic diplomacy with China. Despite enduring differences on issues like human rights and regional security, both countries have mutual economic benefits and appear committed to preserving stable relations in the short to medium term.
Recalibrating Australia–China relations | East Asia Forum
Children’s Rights
(Lidiia Akryshora, Mariam Muradyan – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Domestic and international conflict, and migration flows, whether prompted by violence or economic, social, or environmental degradation, have always jeopardized children’s rights.
Save Their Childhoods | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
China
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The Chinese defense industrial base continues to churn out ever larger and more capable warships at a stunning pace. New satellite imagery of China’s sprawling Changxing Island Shipbuilding Base shows rapid progress on the construction of the first Yulan-class landing helicopter assault (LHA) ship. Dubbed the Type 076, the vessel represents a substantial step forward in the ability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to project power farther from China’s shores.
China’s Massive Next-Generation Amphibious Assault Ship Takes Shape (csis.org)
Emerging Technologies
(Aspen Institute) There is palpable anxiety among the news media about the rapid advance of artificial intelligence, and its impact on business. And yet, the industry ignores these emerging technologies at its peril. We call on the media to educate themselves on both the risks, and the opportunity – to use AI to empower journalism and meet evolving consumer needs. Throughout 2024, Aspen Digital has been leading the conversation with newsroom and publishing leaders, AI executives and technologists, and other experts on how the news media might experiment with AI tools, while adhering to journalistic values and business imperatives. “Here Come the Robots” synthesizes these insights and makes recommendations for how AI technologies can lead to the long-term success of news organizations, now and in the future.
AI and the Future of News: Here Come the Robots – The Aspen Institute – The Aspen Institute
European Union – Hungary
(Daniel Hegedüs – German Marshall Fund of the United States) After the tumultuous start to Hungary’s Presidency of the Council of the EU last month that saw provocative foreign trips by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, including to Russia, EU politics is back to business as usual with other member states divided on how to respond. Meanwhile, Orbán is carrying out a tactical de-escalation. He is adapting after the unexpectedly harsh initial reactions of the EU institutions and member states, aiming to lay low to get to the fall unscathed. Then, when the political calendar gives him the opportunity, he can be expected to take his disruptive diplomacy to new levels.
Orbán De-Escalates—But He Will Strike Again | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Global Order
(Anthony De Luca-Baratta, William Erich Ellison, Joseph Schneider Malamud, Mollie Sharfman – The National Interest) While the world’s attention focuses on the U.S. presidential election and the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, the Russo-Ukrainian War grinds on. The war represents not only a bloody and cataclysmic clash between Russia and Ukraine but also a proxy war within the larger cold war between a Western bloc led by the United States and a Eurasian bloc consisting of China, Russia, Iran, and their partners. That cold war is also playing out in the hot wars roiling the Middle East and the potential showdown between the United States and China over Taiwan in East Asia. The theaters of the new cold war have grown increasingly interconnected, resulting in a unified geopolitical system characterized by competition and conflict.
Israel and Ukraine Are on the Same Side | The National Interest
Gulf States
(Abdullah Baabood – Carnegie Middle East Center) The October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and the latter’s subsequent months-long and ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip have drastically redefined the security considerations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel, launched in retaliation for an Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, sent a clear message to regional countries of Tehran’s military reach. Despite a relatively successful rapprochement between Iran and the Gulf states following the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian reconciliation agreement in March 2023, the Iranian attack on Israel alarmed the Gulf states. Although Tehran reportedly disclosed the scope of the operation to its Gulf neighbors before its launch, its scale and nature forced these countries to reassess their security priorities.
Middle East
(Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Robert Moore, William Doran, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Syria: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have moved fighters and weapons to eastern Syria in order to attack US forces there, according to local Syrian reports. Iran directing a militia attack on US forces at the same time as an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel could hinder the United States’ ability to defend Israel – Iran: Anonymous Western intelligence sources told Sky News Arabia that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13 in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh – Israel: US and UK officials have engaged Israel to affirm support and coordinate defensive action in preparation for an Iranian-led attack on Israel.
Iran Update, August 2, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Rany Ballout – The National Interest) Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, and reportedly Hamas, on Tuesday and Wednesday mark a significant escalation in the Gaza war and bring Israel and Iran’s “axis of resistance” closer to all-out war than at any time since the October 7 Hamas attack. An Israeli airstrike on Tuesday killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, in response to an attack (reportedly by Hezbollah, although the militant group denied it) on an Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday that killed twelve children and teenagers. On Wednesday, a detonation by an explosive device, reportedly by Israel, killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Forecasting Hezbollah’s Next Move | The National Interest
(Alexander Langlois – The National Interest) Israel’s decision to assassinate Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, although not yet claimed by Tel Aviv, and Lebanese Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr on July 30 and 31 is sending shockwaves throughout the Middle East. The twin assassinations mark another dangerous inflection point for the region as Iran and Israel continue to escalate their shadow war increasingly into open military exchanges. Yet the assassinations, alongside broader violence, will not end what is already a regional war or the conflict in Gaza. Instead, these actions will likely produce more instability while expanding opportunities for miscalculation.
Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination Will Expand the Israel-Iran Conflict | The National Interest
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Israel eliminated five leaders of the Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas approximately a week and a half ago during an airstrike that destroyed a tunnel in the Gaza Strip, two Hamas sources told the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Asharq Al-Aswat. The August 2 report, cited widely in Israeli media, said that the strike killed Hamas political leaders Rawhi Mushtaha and Sameh al-Sirag, along with three commanders of the group’s military wing, identified as Abdul Hadi Siam, Sami Odeh, and Muhammad Hadid. In November, the Israel Defense Forces targeted Mushtaha and Siraq inside a tunnel but could not confirm their deaths.
Arab Media Reports Five Hamas Leaders Eliminated in Gaza Strike (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Mourners gathered in Doha, Qatar, on August 2 to pay their respects to Hamas’s late political chief, Ismail Haniyeh. Haniyeh died in a presumed Israeli hit on his guesthouse in Tehran on July 31, and his body was subsequently flown to Qatar for burial. The funeral brought together senior leaders from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, including Hamas’s de facto foreign minister, Khaled Meshal — widely tipped as Haniyeh’s successor as the principal political leader of Hamas — as well as high-ranking officials from Qatar, Iran, and Turkey. Senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya, who attended the funeral in Doha, assured mourners that “the path of the resistance will continue and Haniyeh’s blood will not be [spilled] in vain.”
Hamas Backers Gather in Qatar for Ismail Haniyeh’s Funeral (fdd.org)
(Fondation for Defense of Democracies) Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz summoned the deputy ambassador of Turkey for a severe reprimand on August 2, after the Turkish flag at the country’s embassy in Tel Aviv was lowered to half-mast as a mark of respect for the assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. “If the embassy representatives wish to mourn, they should go to Turkey … alongside their master, Erdogan, who embraces the terrorist organization Hamas and supports its acts of murder and terror,” Katz declared in a post on X.
Turkey Holds ‘Day of Mourning’ to Commemorate Assassinated Hamas Leader (fdd.org)
NATO
(Foreign Policy Research Institute) In conversation with Benedetta Berti.
Russia
(Anna Borshchevskaya – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) According to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing U.S. intelligence sources, Moscow is poised to provide the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen with advanced antiship missiles. If the report is accurate, it would mark yet another Russian escalation in tensions with the West and further fuel an assault on longstanding international norms.
Countering Russia’s Strategy of Arming Anti-American Proxies | The Washington Institute
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian Joint Forces and Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov stressed that Russia is pursuing an effort to force Ukraine to commit its available manpower to ongoing defensive operations in order to prevent the accumulation of Ukrainian resources for future counteroffensive operations – Russian Airborne (VDV) and “Dnepr” Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky addressed VDV forces in an article and recorded video on the 94th anniversary of the VDV’s formation on August 2, attempting to highlight the VDV’s performance in Ukraine as an elite professional force despite the fact that VDV elements are fighting essentially as understrength motorized rifle units in Ukraine – Russian authorities arrested the former deputy rear commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) Colonel Dmitry Peshkov on August 2 – The Russian Federation Council passed an updated version of an amendment that will allow commanders to punish subordinates for “gross disciplinary offenses,” including the use of personal electronic devices, in frontline areas following significant backlash from Russian milbloggers – The Russian Federation Council also passed a series of bills strengthening the Russian government’s control over the Russian information space and further restricting the rights of migrants in Russia – The pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc announced its candidate for the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election on August 2 – Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City – A Russian government official weighed in on ongoing milblogger criticism of Russia’s drone production industry – A delegation of Kremlin officials visited occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts on August 2 to highlight Russian efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into the Russian Federation.
(Kollen Post – Foreign Policy Research Institute) On July 8, a Russian Kh-101 rocket flew into a children’s hospital in the center of Kyiv. On July 9, no less a figure than Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s primary mouthpiece, took to TASS, a preferred Kremlin megaphone, to declare “as before, we maintain: We do not strike civilian objects.” Almost immediately, Kremlin-affiliated Telegram channels and pro-Russian propagandists on Twitter took to blaming the attack on Ukraine’s air defense, specifically first a US-supplied Patriot missile, before settling on a NATO-supplied NASAMS missile—belying the jet engine visible in footage of the strike and setting up one of the most insulting narratives of victim-blaming imaginable.
Russia – West
(Jacob Heilbrunn – The National Interest) Is the prisoner exchange with Russian President Vladimir Putin a pact with the devil in the name of humanity? That is what one leading German commentator is calling it. In Germany as well as Poland, the prisoner swap is triggering unease as it is viewed as a form of appeasement to the Russian regime that will simply provoke further hostage-taking. The principal object for Putin was to obtain the release of one Vadim Krasikov, who was convicted of murder in Berlin, who never acknowledged his culpability, and who the Kremlin has now confirmed was a member of the FSB’s elite Alpha unit.
Was the Prisoner Swap with Russia a Bad Idea? | The National Interest
(Tatiana Stanovaya – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) Russia and the West have carried out the biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War, with sixteen prisoners handed from Russia to the West, and eight moving to Russia from the West. The deal, which was years in the making, was built around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strong desire to return assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was jailed in Germany in 2019 for the murder of Chechen rebel commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili. Krasikov was the linchpin of the negotiations, which eventually delivered a much bigger trade.
Syria
(Steven Heydemann – Brookings) In late May, Saudi Arabia appointed its first ambassador to Syria since it closed its embassy in Damascus 12 years ago. The Saudi ambassador’s return was only the latest step by the Arab states to normalize relations with the Assad regime. In 2018, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the first to reestablish ties with Damascus (though it only sent an ambassador to Syria in January 2024). The UAE’s move launched the rehabilitation of a regime that has been treated as a regional pariah since 2011 due to its brutal repression of mass protests. Other regional actors followed in its footsteps, including Jordan and Bahrain, but normalization only acquired real momentum in the wake of a devastating earthquake that hit southern Turkey and northern Syria in February 2023.
Syria normalization: The failure of defensive diplomacy | Brookings
Türkiye – Syria
(Samer al-Ahmed – Middle East Institute) Amid Turkish statements about normalization with the Syrian regime and Damascus’s hesitant response, it appears as though the process is progressing slowly through security and political arrangements between the two sides, in preparation for a potential meeting of the two presidents under Russian, and possibly Russian-Arab, sponsorship.
The impact of Turkish-Syrian normalization on the SDF | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
UK
(Matt Ince, Laurie Laybourn – RUSI) The new UK government faces a world being made more volatile by climate change. In response, the forthcoming Strategic Defence Review must place climate considerations at the heart of national security decision-making.
Keeping the UK Secure in a Climate-Changed World | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA
(William A. Galston – Brookings) In surveys conducted shortly before Biden’s withdrawal, Trump led in the national race by an average of 2.5 percentage points. After Biden’s withdrawal, Trump’s lead against Harris averaged 1.2 points. While Harris is doing no better among women than Biden did in 2020, she is running 11 points behind him among men. In 2020, Biden received 92% of the Black vote, while Harris is garnering only 69% and Trump has tripled his share from eight percent in 2020 to 23% now.
How has the switch from Biden to Harris changed the presidential race? | Brookings
(Katherine Schaeffer – Pew Research Center) Vice President Kamala Harris has launched her bid for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. While most U.S. vice presidents in recent decades have sought the presidency, relatively few of them have won.
Many recent vice presidents have run for president, but few have won | Pew Research Center
(Hannah Hartig – Pew Research Center) Americans are generally confident that this fall’s presidential election will be conducted fairly and accurately. Yet Republicans and those who lean toward the GOP are far less confident of this than Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 1-7, 2024.
Majorities are confident 2024 election will be fair, but Republicans less sure | Pew Research Center
(Aspen Institute) When the “future of work” gained traction as an urgent issue roughly ten years ago, self-driving cars were still broadly a fiction. While technologists were certainly building and prototyping, the only place most Americans had seen an autonomous vehicle was in the Jetsons. Over the past decade, however, the technology has advanced rapidly, and the regulatory environment has moved with surprising speed. Self-driving cars are here. Autonomous taxis now cruise the streets of San Francisco, a regular feature for kids growing up in the Bay Area, with other cities not far behind.
Looking Back on the “Future of Work” (And What’s Next) – The Aspen Institute – The Aspen Institute
(Aspen Institute) Much of the talk about the future of work fails to acknowledge what that future means for workers — and the critical need for employees to be able to shape that future. Dramatic changes in jobs, industries, and our economy will continue — and speed up — due to external forces like climate change, demographic changes, and generative artificial intelligence (AI). AI, in particular, could eliminate, remake, and create whole categories of jobs. It’s unavoidable and could be exponential, but it cannot be at the expense of workers already facing widening inequity in their power and pay. Wages for the lowest earners have grown since the pandemic, but still far short of creating financial stability for workers and their families. The Federal Reserve’s Economic Wellbeing of U.S. Households report found that, in 2023, one in six Americans could not afford to pay all their bills, and one in three could not cover an unexpected expense of $400 or more.
AI and the Future of Work(ers) – The Aspen Institute – The Aspen Institute
(Aspen Institute) Hurricane Beryl’s recent landfall is a harbinger for the more intense, rapidly escalating storms predicted this season, as warmer ocean temperatures are expected to bring the worst hurricane season in decades. These extreme storms, as well as the extreme heat that has blanketed much of the globe this summer, are no longer a distant threat but a harsh reality for many, and one that threatens the financial stability of many American communities. Their ability to adapt to intensifying climate impacts will largely be determined by their financial resources and capacity.
Venezuela
(Chatham House) Thousands of Venezuelans have taken to the streets to protest the outcome of the presidential election. Amidst calls for a recount by Western governments, will Nicolás Maduro remain in power?
Vietnam – South China Sea
(Raul Pedrozo – East Asia Forum) Vietnam’s current approach of ‘cooperation and struggle’ in response to China’s aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea has been unsuccessful in changing China’s stance and could potentially allow China to solidify its claims. To counter China’s continuing violations of international treaty obligations, Vietnam needs to take proactive, non-lethal countermeasures and strengthen its strategic partnership with the Philippines.
Vietnam must be more assertive in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
