From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Azerbaijan – Iran
(Fuad Shahbazov – The Jamestown Foundation) In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War. The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties and aligns with Iran’s International North-South Transportation Corridor, enhancing regional connectivity and trade routes toward Russia. Azerbaijan’s focus on the Aras Corridor reflects regional tensions, including opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, Iran-Israel conflicts, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The project highlights Azerbaijan’s strategy of adapting to navigate shifting alliances and maintain regional goals. – New Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions – Jamestown
Climate Action
(Johan Rockström, Tania Strauss – World Economic Forum) A global water crisis caused by land use changes and climate change is affecting economies, societies and the planet. A recent report by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water outlines how this endangers the world’s freshwater supply and how to build water resilience. World leaders must include freshwater protection in discussions about financing climate action during the global climate conference COP29. – COP29 Water Day: How to finance global water resilience | World Economic Forum
(World Resources Institute) At COP29, over 30 countries committed to reduce methane from organic waste such as food. The Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste supports previous COP commitments, including the Lowering Organic Waste Methane (LOW-Methane) initiative to cut 1 million metric tons of annual waste sector emissions and the broader Global Methane Pledge to cut all global methane emissions at least 30% by 2030. – STATEMENT: More than 30 Countries Commit to Tackle Methane from Organic Waste | World Resources Institute
(World Resources Institute) Leaders from the Group of 20 major economies issued a joint statement, as the COP29 negotiations enter their final stretch. G20 countries reaffirmed the goals of the Paris Agreement, reiterated the outcome from the Global Stocktake in Dubai and agreed to reform Multilateral Development Banks and scale up climate finance. G20 countries account for 85% of the world’s economy and are the largest contributors to multilateral development banks helping to steer climate finance. – STATEMENT: G20 Summit Reaffirms Support for Inclusive, Just Climate Action | World Resources Institute
(Yiqian Zhang, Molly Caldwell, Valerie Laxton, Ben Welle, K. Zé Liu – World Resources Institute) This working paper provides a comprehensive analysis of climate finance for transport projects in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. By examining 839 transport projects and presenting 14 detailed case studies, the paper explores international climate finance sources—including climate funds, multilateral development banks, donor governments, and private investors—and their support for transport projects, from building all-weather roads to electric mobility and public transport. The case studies offer valuable insights into how LMICs access climate finance for low-carbon and resilient transport. – Access to Climate Finance in Low and Middle-Income Countries: 14 Case Studies in the Transport Sector | World Resources Institute
Egypt – Türkiye
(Karim Mezran, Nicola Pedde – Atlantic Council) Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s visit to Ankara on September 4 marked a significant turning point in Egyptian-Turkish relations. The visit has consequences that reverberate throughout the region, especially in North Africa and the Horn of Africa. The meeting comes on the heels of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s February visit to Cairo, which enabled a thawing phase in the diplomatic crisis that began eleven years earlier when the Egyptian military ousted the Islamist government of Mohamed Morsi, which Turkey supported due to Erdogan’s friendship with the Muslim Brotherhood. During their September meeting, Sisi and Erdogan announced the establishment of a bilateral Strategic Cooperation Council to coordinate mutual regional prerogatives at a high level. The inaugural meeting occurred during Sisi’s visit and is expected to occur annually. The economic dimension is one of the main factors influencing this rapprochement. In fact, Egypt is Ankara’s first economic partner in Africa. – Egypt-Turkey cooperation brings profound changes in ties with African countries – Atlantic Council
European Union
(World Resources Institute – 18 November 2024) The European Parliament voted last week to delay, and proposed amendments to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) which had originally passed the legislative process in 2023. The proposed amendments need to be approved by all three EU institutions and will be considered by the EU Commission and EU Council this week. Initially set for implementation on 30 December 2024, this critical regulation aims to curb the EU’s role in global commodity-driven deforestation. It prevents coffee, cocoa, soy, cattle, palm oil, rubber and wood, along with certain derivative products, that are linked to deforestation or forest degradation from entering, being traded in or exported from the European market. – STATEMENT: Proposed Amendments to EU Deforestation Law Create Dangerous Loopholes and Uncertainty | World Resources Institute
Haiti
(Security Council) Today the Security Council will hold an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Haiti. The meeting was requested by China and Russia to discuss a proposal by Ecuador and the US—the co-penholders on Haiti—to transform the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission authorised by resolution 2699 of 2 October 2023 into a UN peacekeeping operation. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and two civil society representatives are expected to brief. – Haiti: Briefing and Consultations : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
Iran – Western Africa- USA – Morocco
(Sarah Zaaimi – Atlantic Council) President-elect Donald Trump’s victory bodes well for US-Morocco relations. As King Mohamed VI recalled in his statement congratulating Trump on his election win, during his first term, Trump recognized Rabat’s full sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Trump made this recognition with a presidential proclamation on December 10, 2020, in exchange for Morocco reestablishing diplomatic relations with Israel. In his statement, Mohammed VI went on to say that “the Moroccan people will forever be grateful” for this recognition, calling Washington “our longstanding friend and ally.” – Iran has ambitions in Western Sahara. Trump can contain them by bolstering ties with Morocco. – Atlantic Council
Iraq
(Sary Mumayiz – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) An Iraqi militia directorate that has grown into a major state-funded educational foundation, arranging university education for students tied to the PMF and sending some to Iran on scholarships paid by Tehran. – Profile: Directorate of Education, al-Hashd al-Shabi (DEHS) | The Washington Institute
Middle East
(Hamdi Malik, Michael Knights, Crispin Smith – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) In recent weeks, a new facade group called al-Muqawama al-Islamiya fi Bilad al-Haramain (the Islamic Resistance in the Land of the Two Mosques, or MIBH) has claimed responsibility for drone attacks against Israel. The group’s name seems intended to suggest an affiliation with pro-Iran militants from Saudi Arabia, since the kingdom hosts two of the holiest mosques in Islam—al-Masjid al-Haram in Mecca and al-Masjid al-Nabawi in Medina—and is often referred to as the “Land of the Two Holy Mosques” or similar variations. – Anti-Israel Attacks by Iraq-Based Group with Implied Saudi Membership | The Washington Institute
(Michael Knights, Hamdi Malik, Crispin Smith – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On November 19, 2024, Saraya Awliya al-Dam (SAD) claimed an attack on Eilat, Israel, and showed (for the first time) a Shahed-101 X-tail drone being launched in the afternoon (based on sun position) from a fifteen-foot motor boat on an unidentified large body of water. The launch appeared to send the drone in a westward direction. The body of water is quite large, judging by imagery that includes a length of water horizon with no shore visible (and some mountains). The only inland bodies of water in Iraq that fit this profile are lakes like Tharthar or Hamrin. The imagery could have been taken outside Iraq, perhaps in partnership with Houthi forces on the Red Sea. – Iraqi Militias Unveil SAD Aircraft Carrier | The Washington Institute
(Security Council) Today the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which was put forward by the Council’s ten elected members (E10). The draft text in blue demands an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire to be respected by all parties and reiterates the Council’s demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. It also rejects “any effort to starve Palestinians” and demands immediate access to basic services and humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza, and the facilitation of entry of humanitarian assistance at scale and its delivery, including to “civilians in besieged north Gaza”. – Vote on a Draft Resolution on the War in Gaza : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
(Hayder Al-Shakeri, Renad Mansour – Chatham House) Conflicts in the Middle East are increasingly ‘transnational’, spreading beyond national borders and becoming intertwined with regional and global trade. Governments and formal institutions collaborate with informal traders and armed groups to operate both legal and illegal supply chains – moving people, capital and goods along routes across Iran, Iraq, Türkiye, and the Levant. – How supply chains fuel transnational conflict in the Middle East | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(The Soufan Center) Negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages and prisoners have stalled over irreconcilable demands by both sides, frustrating regional and global diplomats. Hamas’ collective leadership, which has run the group since the October death of Yahya Sinwar, shows no sign of relinquishing the organization’s aspirations to eventually rebuild the group’s political and military infrastructure in Gaza. No clear roadmap has yet emerged to reverse Gaza’s descent into a physically destroyed, ungoverned space indefinitely dependent on international and regional aid deliveries. In the absence of clear prospects to end the conflict, U.S. and regional officials are focusing on addressing the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, causing strains with Israeli leaders. – Hopes Fading for an End to the Gaza Conflict – The Soufan Center
Myanmar
(Security Council) Today the Security Council will convene for a private meeting on Myanmar. The UK, the penholder on the file and the Council’s president in November, scheduled the meeting. Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar Julie Bishop and Special Envoy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Chair on Myanmar Alounkeo Kittikhoun are expected to brief. – Myanmar: Private Meeting : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
North Korea
(RUSI) The area to the north of the city of Hamhung is home to academic institutions and research and development (R&D) facilities. Furthermore, there are access tunnels to likely underground areas in the vicinity, and the wider region is home to significant chemical industry. Although literature on these facilities is limited, satellite imagery has been analysed to determine whether it is possible to discern any linkages with or provide insight on North Korea’s chemical industry or chemical weapons (CW) programme. Although evidence was circumstantial and no direct linkages could be identified on imagery, the analysis was able to confirm the location of several academic and R&D facilities and contribute to baselining potential academic and R&D facilities in the area. – R&D Areas North of Hamhung: North Korea’s Chemical Facilities: Site Profile 3 | Royal United Services Institute
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s war in Ukraine has inflicted unprecedented losses on Russian forces, with significant casualties disproportionately affecting regions with large Cossack populations. The Russian government, however, romanticizes Cossack history across society to increase militarization in Russian society. The war has been infused with religious and ideological significance, particularly through the Russian Orthodox Church’s legitimization of the conflict, glorifying an imagined romanticized Cossack past and emphasizing Orthodox Christian values. The romanticization of the past infuses the war with a sense of destiny and purpose and fosters a new, ultra-violent Russian generation, setting the stage for future instability regardless of the war’s outcome. – As ‘Cossack’ Casualties Grow, Ideology Becomes More Important to War Effort – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is facing ever greater problems filling the ranks of its invasion force. Increasing signing bonuses and pardons for those who serve are less effective than advertised. The Kremlin is turning to ever more repressive and deceptive measures, but these are not working well either. Activists are spreading awareness and even helping soldiers evade service through desertion, flight, or open revolt. Despite polls suggesting the contrary, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war is unpopular, negatively impacting the Russian army in the field and the public perception of its veterans, whom Putin plans to build a new elite around. – Moscow Facing Ever Greater Problems Getting Troops to Fight in Ukraine – Jamestown
Russia – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) The Ministries of Defense of Belarus and Russia approved the Zapad–2025 Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE), scheduled for 2025, which will focus on both conventional and nuclear components. Preparations for the Zapad-2025 JSE are designed to create a cover for the concentration of Russian troops on Belarusian territory for a new attack on Ukraine that might happen after snap presidential elections in Belarus. Belarusian and Russian officials remain ambiguous about the specific dates, but deployment area reconnaissance for Russian troops indicates that their mass arrival in Belarus is scheduled for the end of this year or the beginning of next year. – Russia Responds to Kursk Incursion With Nuclear Exercise and Strategic Maneuvers in Belarus (Part 2) – Jamestown
Russia – China – Arctic
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises in the Far East and Arctic as China’s involvement in the region grows and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expands into the Arctic. Moscow is increasingly aligning with Beijing to bolster its position in the Arctic, leveraging its advanced icebreaking fleet and cooperation with China to promote Arctic security cooperation. China’s Arctic ambitions could shift the partnership’s power dynamics as Russia grapples with economic and demographic challenges, the strain of the war in Ukraine, and growing Western Arctic policies. – Sino-Russian Partnership in the Arctic and the Far East Reflect Joint Security Interests (Part Two) – Jamestown
Russia – South Caucasus
(Neil Melvin – RUSI) Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community now find that their reach exceeds their grasp in terms of their ability to shape the regional order in the South Caucasus. Both remain regionally influential, but their leverage to drive developments is eroding as the South Caucasus is affected by multipolar international politics. The rise of multipolarity is being promoted by the increasing role of a broad set of external actors – most of all Turkey, Iran and China – engaging in the South Caucasus, and by strengthening links between the region and Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia, links that are supplementing the region’s established ties to the US, Europe and Russia. In this context, there is increased local agency in relation to external partnerships (reinforced by a turn to illiberal domestic politics), and waning attraction both to Russian and Euro-Atlantic integration projects. – Retying the Caucasian Knot: Russia’s Evolving Approach to the South Caucasus | Royal United Services Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Kira Rudik – Atlantic Council) This week sees the one thousandth day of the war launched by Vladimir Putin in February 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the largest European conflict since World War II, and one of the first major wars to be covered in real time on social media. Audiences around the world have watched in disbelief as the Russian army has advanced into Ukraine, reducing entire cities to rubble and displacing millions of people. For almost three years, this unfolding tragedy has been the world’s leading news story. – 1000 days of war: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passes grim milestone – Atlantic Council
Ukraine – Russia – Sahel
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine is alleged to be providing military equipment and training to the Tuareg separatist coalition CSP-DPA in its armed struggle against Russian-backed Malian government forces. This support is framed as a strategic move from Ukraine to counter Russian influence in Africa, particularly targeting Russian forces and mercenaries in Mali. This commitment reflects Kyiv’s growing interest in subversive tactics to distract and weaken Moscow as Ukraine is engaging in a worldwide manhunt for Russian forces as they dwindle in number on the frontlines of Ukraine. – Ukraine Targets Russian Forces in Sahel – Jamestown
USA
(Thomas S. Warrick – Atlantic Council) In the end, it will come down to trust. If the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in President Donald Trump’s second term can build and keep the trust of the overwhelming majority of Americans, then the country, the American people, and Trump will all be well served. More than other cabinet departments, DHS needs to factor into its decisions how its actions affect the trust Americans have in it. DHS needs the support of the American people to succeed. DHS is the third-largest US government department, with more than 260,000 people. Its work is vital to the security and economic prosperity of the United States. DHS has more contact with the American people than any other federal department: everyone who uses computers, cell phones, and online networks; travels through airports; enters or leaves the country; is hit by a natural or man-made disaster; goes to a house of worship that uses a grant to pay for increased security; or visits a federal office building protected by DHS anywhere in the country—they all engage with what DHS does. – Border security and the future of DHS: Will Trump 2.0 earn the public’s trust? – Atlantic Council
(Heather Williams, Reja Younis, Lachlan MacKenzie, Christopher A. Ford, Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Ankit Panda, Melanie W. Sisson, and Gregory Weaver – Center for Strategic & International Studies) There is a growing risk that the United States and its allies could face scenarios in which one or more adversaries might resort to nuclear weapons use in a regional conflict. In response to these growing risks, U.S. decisionmakers are revisiting the concept of intra-war deterrence, which is about influencing enemy actions during an ongoing conflict. The risks of deterrence failure have been a focal point in the testimony of recent U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) commanders, including General Anthony Cotton, who said, “We must be ready if deterrence fails” in testimony in February 2024. – Project Atom 2024: Intra-War Deterrence in a Two-Peer Environment
(Victor Cha – Center for Strategic & International Studies) With the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025, governments around the world must adjust their sights away from a traditional globalist orientation by the United States and focus on the vagaries of return to “America First” foreign policies in Washington. The latter has been described as a “transactional” approach that privileges U.S. interests and forces world leaders to brace themselves for unpredictability rather than reliability from the United States. – How Trump Sees Allies and Partners
(Joseph Webster, Natalia Storz – Atlantic Council) California is generating more solar electricity than ever, a significant accomplishment that will lower costs and emissions while making the grid more resilient and secure. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which manages the state grid, is reporting record-setting solar electricity generation in both absolute and relative terms. CAISO’s solar generation success has been due to several factors, including expanding generation while limiting curtailment. But the key to California’s solar revolution is batteries. – Batteries are charging California’s solar revolution – Atlantic Council
USA – Latin America
(Christopher Sabatini – Chatham House) Donald Trump has made no secret of his admiration for elected, populist autocrats, such as President Recep Erdogan in Turkey or President Victor Orban in Hungry. That affinity for elected strongmen extends to Latin America as well. In some cases, as with former president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro, it includes extensive connections with his family and advisors. Bolsonaro has been sure to maintain links with Trump while out of power, participating in 2024’s annual pro-Trump Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Also attending that event was right-wing president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. Trump has both praised and criticized Bukele, but his pick for US attorney general, Matt Gaetz, visited El Salvador in June with Donald Trump Jnr, lauding Bukele’s approach. Argentine President Javier Milei, long an admirer, was the first president to visit Trump following his November election victory. – Trump’s Latin America policy will be shaped by an ideological network of ‘Trumpista’ strongmen | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
USA – Ukraine
(Jack Watling – RUSI) After more than a year spent opposing the use of Western complex weapons to strike Russian territory, the Biden administration has come around to permitting the use of long-range US-made missiles against targets on Russian soil. The questions this volte face has prompted are what has changed to make it acceptable now, and what difference will it make for Ukraine? The answers to these questions are less about the damage that the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) can inflict, and more about what they might enable, and whether their provision is a catalyst for others like Germany to provide similar kinds of support. – Making the Most of Ukraine’s Freedom to Strike Russia | Royal United Services Institute
(Max Boot – Council on Foreign Relations) With little more than two months left in office, President Joe Biden has belatedly heeded Ukraine’s pleas and reportedly allowed the use of American-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) inside Russia. This comes a little more than a week after another post-election decision to allow a small number of U.S. defense contractors to fix U.S.-made weapons systems inside Ukraine, rather than forcing Ukrainians to take their weapons to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries for repair. All of this calls to mind the anonymous quip—often wrongly attributed to former United Kingdom Prime Minister Winston Churchill—that Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing, but only after exhausting all the other options. – Ukraine’s ATACMS: What Will the U.S. Missiles Mean for the War? | Council on Foreign Relations
Yemen’s Houtis
(Eleonora Ardemagni – RUSI) The Houthis are diversifying their alliances and deepening their military capabilities, leveraging regional conflicts and pragmatic partnerships to expand their influence beyond the Iranian-led ‘axis of resistance’. – Beyond the Axis: Yemen’s Houthis are Building their ‘Network of Resistance’ | Royal United Services Institute
