From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Australia
(Kate Grayson – ASPI The Strategist) Staffing levels at Australia’s peak intelligence oversight body are regressing, impeding its ability to ensure that national security agencies operate as intended within our democratic framework of institutions and laws. Without enough people, the organisation, the Office of the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, cannot monitor the agencies and assure ministers, Parliament and the public of their effective and legal operation. – Ongoing staff shortages handicap Australia’s peak intelligence oversight body | The Strategist
(Danielle Ireland-Piper – Lowy The Interpreter) The climate is warming. Ice is melting. Storms are brewing. We are at five minutes to midnight, with disasters set to increase in frequency and intensity. Climate change is now widely accepted, including by the Australian Defence Force, as a national security risk – and not least because of the risk of increased disasters and ensuing resource drain. In short, it matters “who holds the hose”, to borrow the infamous remark of the then Australian prime minister during the 2019-20 bushfire crisis. – Who holds a hose? Climate change as a national security risk in Australian federalism | Lowy Institute
Belarus – Russia – Ukraine
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Minsk is determined to secure a place at any future negotiation table for peace in Ukraine and sees diplomatic opportunities through its role in the peace process. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and other officials stress that Belarus, as a neighboring and affected state, must have a say in post-war security guarantees, aiming to avoid reliance on external powers for its security. Belarus fears its sovereignty is increasingly questioned by the West, and Lukashenka sees a seat at the Russia-Ukraine negotiation table as crucial for both security guarantees and affirming Belarus’s sovereignty domestically and internationally. – Belarus Demands a Seat at Russia-Ukraine Negotiation Table – Jamestown
Chad – Sudan
(Crisis Group) Since April 2023, eastern Chad has received more than 930,000 people fleeing the war in neighbouring Sudan, creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The Chadian government and its partners should mobilise emergency economic support for the region to help prevent communal violence. – Chad: Limiting the Impact of the War in Sudan on Ouaddaï | Crisis Group
China
(David Vallance – Lowy The Interpreter) Hundreds of thousands of attendees will see Beijing make a powerful statement about its military and industrial might this week as Zhuhai Jinwan Airport hosts the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition. A bread-and-butter event for aviation geeks the world over, the equipment China is unveiling at this year’s air show offers important insights into the pace of its military modernisation and strategic intentions. As, indeed, does the equipment it chooses not to display. – China makes a statement at the Zhuhai air show | Lowy Institute
(Raelene Lockhorst – ASPI The Strategist) Chinese companies own or operate at least one port on every continent except Antarctica. These investments present more than immediate security concerns; they position China to fully exploit the economic potential of ports at the expense of other countries. And with Chinese companies controlling development of a port, the government in Beijing can interfere in physical development of the facility, perhaps to ensure that navally useful infrastructure isn’t built. – Downsides of China’s port investments go beyond immediate security risks | The Strategist
China – Mauritius
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) In October 2019, China’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Mauritius opened the Chinese market to Mauritian exporters and investors. Not long after, concerns arose that Mauritius might be lacking in the capacity to benefit significantly from the agreement and thus lose in terms of a trade imbalance that clearly favours China. This brief revisits China’s motivations for the FTA, and finds economic and geopolitical goals. Given Mauritius’s small market, other African countries are unlikely to compete against China. Historically, however, China has tried new models in smaller states before implementing them at scale. If China intends to replicate the model in other countries in Africa, it could have broader continental and global implications. – China’s FTA with Mauritius: A Strategic Mix of Trade and Diplomacy
China – Russia – Arctic
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) In September, China and Russia held a joint Arctic naval exercise, North-Joint 2024, reflecting their deepening security relationship centered on countering Western influence and reinforcing each other in strategic regions. The exercise underscores Russia and China’s shared strategic and economic interests in securing vital maritime routes, particularly the Northern Sea Route, while countering potential Western attempts to restrict access to critical Arctic and Pacific corridors. With Russia’s growing dependence on China and weakening state due to its war in Ukraine, China can use this opportunity to strengthen its presence in the Russian Far East and the Arctic region to exploit its rich natural resources. – Sino-Russian Partnership in the Arctic and the Far East Reflect Joint Security Interests (Part One) – Jamestown
China – UN
(Alicia García-Herrero, Théo Storella, Pauline Weil – Bruegel) We investigate China’s influence at the United Nations by focusing on the promotion of its narratives (words) and its voting behaviour (deeds). For the former, we assess the extent to which China’s global initiatives have become embedded in UN discourse compared to Western initiatives. For the latter, we assess the degree to which countries, regions and voting coalitions align their UN General Assembly votes with China compared to the US. When it comes to words, China’s global initiatives are sometimes louder than the West’s. More specifically, the Belt and Road Initiative has had a much greater impact on UN discourse than any Western initiative. Other Chinese global initiatives do not clearly stand out from those of the West, with the Global Compact for Migration mentioned more frequently at the UN than any Chinese initiative other than the BRI. We also find that Chinese initiatives are more self-referential. Thematically, both Chinese and Western initiatives are very focused on security as well as aid and human rights. Moving to voting patterns, countries’ income levels are a key determinant of alignment in voting. Poorer countries are much more aligned with China than with the US. North America and the European Union, in that order, are generally more aligned with the US than with China and these trends are much more stable than one could expect given China’s growing economic influence. – China’s influence at the United Nations: words and deeds
Climate Action
(The Soufan Center) The United Nations climate conference (COP29) kicked off on Monday, November 11, in Baku, Azerbaijan, amid global red blinking lights signaling the escalating and destructive impacts of climate change. The talks at COP29 will be climate finance-centric, with special attention given to the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a funding target indicating the funds that should be mobilized annually to support climate action projects in developing countries. China is expected to assume a more dominant role in the conference following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election as China’s dominance in the green economy and Trump’s loyalty to fossil fuels pulls the U.S. out of a competitive market and will further embolden China in an era of great power competition. COP29 in Azerbaijan was controversial due to its location—Azerbaijan is an oil- and gas-rich country, and its economy relies on fuel exports—as well as the country’s questionable record on human rights. – COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, Kicks Off Amid Global Signs of Climate Change, and Increased Climate Skepticism – The Soufan Center
(UN News) UN refugee agency, UNHCR, on Thursday launched the Refugees for Climate Action initiative in a bid to mobilise the world’s forcibly displaced to join the fight against global warming. – UNHCR amplifies voices of displaced on frontlines of climate change | UN News
(UN News) Meeting on Thursday with non-governmental entities in Baku for the COP29 climate talks, UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the crucial role that cities, regions, businesses and financial institutions must play in driving the worldwide effort towards reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century. – COP29: ‘Now is the time to fast-track, not backtrack’ on the path to net-zero | UN News
(Creon Butler – Chatham House) With climate impacts getting worse and temperature records being broken, the pressure on countries to raise more money in support of climate action continues to increase. But the ‘climate finance gap’ – the difference between the trillions of dollars needed and the amounts currently available – remains persistent, and is particularly acute in emerging markets and developing economies. Most of the new money needed will have to come from the private sector, but public funding also has a crucial role to play. Fiscal and political pressures in the advanced economies mean that public funds are in short supply. However, this only increases the importance of using the limited amount available in the most effective way possible. The prospect of reduced US political support for climate action in the wake of the 2024 presidential election makes this even more important. This paper explores the challenges of increasing climate finance to emerging markets and developing countries. It discusses the prospects for raising more public international finance in absolute terms, and proposes ideas for using the public money that is already available – or realistically likely to become available – more effectively. Key findings include: the need for regular comparative assessment of different channels for deploying public finance in climate action; the need to enable multilateral development banks genuinely to leverage risk-bearing private finance, and for public finance generally to be exposed to more risk; and the need to address moral hazard and other perverse incentives that still skew a large amount of private investment towards fossil fuels. – Closing the climate finance gap | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
European Union
(Heather Grabbe, Luca Léry Moffat – Bruegel) Forests are essential to regulating the climate, absorbing greenhouse gases and providing fresh water and habitats for biodiversity and indigenous peoples. If deforestation continues at current rates, large parts of the planet will become uninhabitable. The European Union has only 5.5 percent of the world’s population, but its demand drives 15 percent of the global forest destruction linked to trade. Therefore, the EU has introduced a law – the regulation on deforestation-free products, or deforestation regulation – to outlaw from its market products linked to deforestation. – Extra time for deforestation: lessons for future EU environmental legislation
European Union – USA
(Uri Dadush – Bruegel) Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US election shows that the notion that America First protectionism was an aberration was wrong. Supported by powerful constituencies in swing states, America First responds to fundamental forces at work over four decades: the progressive abandonment of the US’s self-appointed role as caretaker of the liberal rules-based system in the post-Soviet world, China’s rise as arch-rival, and the backlash against neo-liberal policies that came with high inequality, surging immigration and the estrangement of less-skilled native workers, especially men. Trump has channelled these forces into a juggernaut political movement. – What the European Union should expect from Trump’s tariffs
Global Development
(UN News) The global food import bill is projected to exceed $2 trillion in 2024 – fuelled by the rising cost of everyone’s favourite hot drinks – according to the latest Food Outlook released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on Thursday. – Coffee, tea and cocoa costs see global food import bill soaring past $2 trillion | UN News
Global Health
(UN News) Antimicrobial resistance initiatives are back in the spotlight as stakeholders gather in Jeddah, on the Saudi Arabian coast, a few months after a high-level meeting in New York led to the unanimous adoption of a political declaration by the UN General Assembly. With that declaration the 193-member body pledged concerted action against the under-recognized but serious health concern. – From Declaration to action: Antimicrobial resistance initiatives centre stage at Jeddah conference | UN News
(UN News) Global diabetes cases have quadrupled since 1990, affecting over 800 million adults worldwide, according to a World Health Organization (WHO) study released to coincide with World Diabetes Day. – Global diabetes epidemic reaches critical levels with 800 million cases | UN News
India – Russia
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) In the past decade, the core drivers of India-Russia relations have begun shifting. The traditionally dominant military-technical partnership has declined, with India buying less Russian weapons, technology and military platforms. The economic pillar stagnated as military dealings slowed, with bilateral trade hovering around the US$ 10-11 billion mark. However, since 24 February, 2022, there has been a dramatic uptick in economic ties, with India emerging as Russia’s second-largest trade partner. In 2022, bilateral trade surged to US$ 49 billion, and by the end of 2023, US$ 65 billion. This uptick in trade is primarily attributed to the increasing discounts on oil purchases offered to Indian refiners, as India did not join the sanctions regime against Russia. Along with increasing oil trade, the non-oil trade has also marginally increased in the trade basket. Along with these new trends in bilateral trade, there is a significant overestimation of the India-Russia economic cooperation, which has led to condemnation from the Group of Seven countries (G7), comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). – A deep dive into the India-Russia economic relations
Indonesia – China
(Fitriani, Gatra Priyandita – ASPI The Strategist) Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, needed only three weeks in office to make three big concessions to China. In a joint statement with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 9 November, Prabowo acknowledged Chinese maritime claims that Indonesia had long rejected. Despite leading the most populous Muslim-majority country, he affirmed China’s right to deal with Xinjiang as it pleased. He also endorsed China’s vague vision of the geopolitical order, something that Indonesia has long been wary of. – Three concessions after three weeks: Prabowo leans China’s way | The Strategist
(Ristian Supriyanto – Lowy The Interpreter) Has Indonesia surrendered its position on the South China Sea? Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visited China this week, and on 9 November Beijing released a joint statement in English claiming a “common understanding” with Indonesia “on joint development in areas of overlapping claims” of maritime territories. While one can interpret “overlapping claims” as referring to other areas, many have suggested this phrase concerns the portion of Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that China claims within its so-called “nine-dash line” (some say “ten-dash line”). – Check, but not check-mate: Indonesia’s nine-dash line mistake | Lowy Institute
Koreas
(Rachel Minyoung Lee – East Asia Forum) Despite South Korean President Yoon’s commitment to unification, North Korea’s recent actions suggest dialogue between the two nations will remain unrealistic for the foreseeable future. This was reinforced by Kim Jong-un’s two Koreas policy and nuclear threats towards South Korea. To manage these escalating tensions, South Korea should balance deterrence with clearer signals for dialogue, prioritising strengthening its own defence systems and its alliance with the United States while signalling genuine interest in diplomatic conversations with the North. – South Korea best off balancing deterrence and diplomacy with the North | East Asia Forum
Lebanon
(Rebecca Anne Proctor – Middle East Institute) Amid the ongoing calamity of war in Lebanon, the country’s cultural scene is determined to work against the odds to keep its heritage and art alive. Among the many projects that are determined to push ahead is the Beirut Museum of Art (BeMA), a museum long in the works whose mission is to preserve the country’s heritage and culture through modern and contemporary art. “We’re still pushing forward because, in the end, this is a project that we believe needs to happen regardless of the situation,” said co-director of BeMA Juliana Khalaf. “In Lebanon, you never know when the time is right to do anything.” – A glimmer of hope in a time of war: The Beirut Museum of Art’s mission to heal and regenerate Lebanon through art | Middle East Institute
Middle East
(Crisis Group) Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank has surged to record levels. For decades, the Israeli government has often tolerated such violence, and the recent Hamas attack has only intensified settlers’ drive for revenge and their efforts to displace Palestinians. This violence not only reinforces Israeli control over occupied land but also fuels Palestinian militancy, potentially opening yet another front in an escalating regional war. In this video, Crisis Group’s Mairav Zonszein examines the phenomenon, while affected communities share the severe impact on their lives. – Video | The Rise of Israeli Settler Violence in the West Bank | Crisis Group
(UN News) Intense Israeli military operations have continued in Gaza as UN humanitarians reported that multiple attempts to deliver life-saving aid to besieged areas in the north of the enclave had been either “denied or impeded”. – Israeli war tactics condemned as aid still blocked from reaching north | UN News
RCEP
(Iman Pambagyo, Donna Gultom – East Asia Forum) The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes 10 ASEAN member states and five Free Trade Agreement partners, is designed to enhance cooperation and expand regional value chains. Despite negotiations happening during difficult global circumstances such as trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic, the RCEP agreement, with its commitment to shared economic interests, encourages collaboration towards shared prosperity, underscoring the significant role of ASEAN in maintaining constructive engagement. The ‘ASEAN way’–consensual, flexible and sometimes slow–should be used by participating RCEP countries to advance other global trade diplomacy issues. – RCEP provides a path to regional trade cooperation | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The Ahiska Turks ethnic group have faced ongoing persecution and forced displacement since the Soviet era. Attacks and discrimination persist in Russia, and ethnic discrimination, threats, and coercion have forced many to seek asylum in the United States. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ahiska Turks living in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories have faced increasing challenges, including forced recruitment into the Russian military, where they are often sent into high-risk combat areas. The Ahiska Turks report systemic discrimination based on ethnicity and religion, exemplifying the continued “imperial mentality” in Russia’s approach to ethnic minorities. – The Ahiska Turks: A Persecuted Group Seeking Asylum From Russian Imperialism in the United States – Jamestown
(Steven Pifer – Brookings – 14 November 2024) Russia’s doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons has gone through several evolutions over the past 15 years. Changes in 2010 and 2020 seemed relatively benign. In September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced additional modifications, which appear more meaningful. These recent modifications were made while Western officials debated whether to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to conduct strikes into Russian territory. They introduce ambiguity on when Russia might employ nuclear arms in a bid to persuade the West to stand down. But those modifications may well stretch Russian declaratory policy beyond the point of credibility. – How credible is Russia’s evolving nuclear doctrine?
Russia – Africa
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) As Moscow seeks to expand its influence in Africa, Moscow aims to unify all Russian soldiers in Africa, including former Wagnerites who were loyal to the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, into a single effective Africa Corps. That effort has not gone well, and this failure is partly to blame for Russian difficulties in fighting in Africa, which casts doubt on Moscow’s ability to pursue its increasingly expansive political and economic program on the continent. Limited by manpower requirements for Ukraine, the Africa Corps has turned to African recruits. If the conflict in Ukraine eases, Moscow may deploy more Russian forces to Africa, posing new challenges for the West. – Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps in Trouble – Jamestown
Southeast Asia
(Hannah Lord – Lowy The Interpreter) In late October each year, Singapore becomes a hub of Southeast Asian energy diplomacy and business. Along with 16,000 other delegates, I attended this year’s Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW), where regionally connected electricity was a hot topic. Singapore’s plans for importing renewable electricity from its neighbours – including Australia – are sparking a broader discussion about the role for regional power grids in Southeast Asia’s decarbonisation agenda. – Is Southeast Asia ready for a regional power grid? | Lowy Institute
Sri Lanka
(Roshni Kapur – East Asia Forum) Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory in Sri Lanka’s 2024 presidential election represents a decisive break from the country’s post-independence political establishment. His National People’s Power party has pledged to end corruption and transform Sri Lanka’s political culture. Dissanayake’s win reflects a global trend of non-elite actors challenging traditional power structures, overcoming efforts by established elites to gatekeep and co-opt political rivals. – Sri Lanka’s political elite fails to gatekeep change | East Asia Forum
Sudan
(UN News) The top UN humanitarian official in Sudan has welcomed the Government’s decision to extend the use of the Adre border crossing, a vital conduit for humanitarian assistance, for an additional three months. – Humanitarian lifeline for Sudan secured for three more months | UN News
Transnational Organised Crime
(UN News) Marking the inaugural International Day for the Prevention of and Fight against All Forms of Transnational Organised Crime on Friday, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has called for unified global efforts to counter these pervasive threats. – Transnational organised crime: ‘It’s time we pull together to push back’ | UN News
USA
(Brookings) On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was elected for a second non-consecutive term as the 47th president of the United States. Below, Brookings experts break down what Trump’s reelection likely means for the future of U.S. foreign policy. – How is Trump’s reelection likely to affect US foreign policy?
(Barry G. Rabe, Chris Borick – Brookings) Adopting a federal carbon price to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions has been an ongoing topic of American climate policy for decades. Thus far, the political hurdles have remained insurmountable, leaving the United States the lone G7 member without a national carbon tax or cap-and-trade system. Twelve states, however, continue to operate carbon cap-and-trade programs. Federal policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have instead focused primarily on financial incentives to accelerate production and use of clean energy and regulation through the Clean Air Act. – American views on linking trade policy with climate performance
USA – China
(Alicia García-Herrero – Bruegel) In China, Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential election has been met with indifference, at least officially. A second Trump administration does not have to be worse for China than the Biden administration. It will depend on whether Trump finally opts for rapprochement with China or continues to push for separation from China. – China on Trump: indifferent but wary
USA – China – South China Sea
(Brahma Chellaney – ASPI The Strategist) For more than a decade, China has been using an increasingly aggressive hybrid-warfare strategy to increase its power and influence in the strategically important South China Sea. Countering it will be one of the defining challenges for US president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Chinese dream of global preeminence depends significantly on achieving dominance in the South China Sea and ending America’s primacy in the Indo-Pacific region, an emerging global economic and geopolitical hub. And China has not hesitated to use coercive tactics in service of these objectives. – A task for Trump: stop China in the South China Sea | The Strategist
USA – Iran
(Richard Nephew – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Maximum pressure is back according to Brian Hook, who served as Iran policy lead during the first Trump administration and is now heading the State Department transition team for the next term. But to what end? – Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy | The Washington Institute
