LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Rauf Mammadov – Middle East Institute) Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s trip to Moscow on April 22 may not have seemed significant by itself but becomes much more so when viewed in a broader context. Notably, the visit came less than a week after Russia announced it would withdraw its “peacekeeping” mission in Karabakh. But just as tellingly, Aliyev traveled to the Russian capital only two weeks after a highly publicized trilateral meeting involving the United States, the European Union, and Armenia, which many observers suggested marked a turning point in Yerevan’s relationship with the West and the possibility of Armenia distancing itself from Russia. It remains to be seen to what degree those predictions come to pass.
Armenia – Türkiye
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described any breakthrough in normalizing relations with Türkiye as “epoch-making” for the region. Armenia has displayed a willingness to take criticism from Türkiye seriously, upsetting many in the Armenian diaspora who fear Pashinyan will make unilateral concessions similar to recent ones with Azerbaijan. Yerevan may have no choice but to accede on certain issues to normalize relations with its neighbors and become an active participant in regional projects
Pashinyan Emphasizes Potential in Normalizing Relations With Türkiye – Jamestown
Azerbaijan – Central Asia
(Nurbek Bekmurzaev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s war against Ukraine has given Azerbaijan fresh motivation to strengthen relations with Central Asian countries to improve their collective trade, transit, and energy potential. Continued development and increased use of the Middle Corridor is central to Baku’s increased cooperation with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Effective joint development between Baku and the Central Asian capitals is crucial for the Middle Corridor to potentially become the premier transit passage for east-west trade.
Azerbaijan Continues to Strengthen Ties With Central Asia – Jamestown
Belarus
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russia for its export infrastructure, especially as its Ukrainian options have been closed since Moscow launched the full-scale invasion. Minsk is seeking alternatives to Russian railways by using the still incomplete International North-South Transport Corridor and discussing plans to create a Eurasian multimodal transport corridor. As Russia continues to pursue its exorbitantly expensive war, Belarusian railway upgrades will remain an afterthought in Moscow for the foreseeable future.
Russia’s War in Ukraine Starves Belarusian Railways of Upgrades – Jamestown
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) has become the central body in overseeing any political transition in Belarus. The assembly has been vested with powers that give it supreme authority over the president’s removal from office, though Lukashenka was elected as the ABPA’s chair. Lukashenka’s status is not the only indicator for a political transition, and a closer examination of past constitutional amendments and new laws indicate that some form of transition is already underway.
China
(Pablo Hernandez-Lagos – Brookings) A common view of the relationship between the U.S. and China regarding artificial intelligence (AI) is of competition or even a battleground. However, artificial intelligence is a scientific field that thrives on collaboration and knowledge sharing. As a science, it relies on previous knowledge from all corners of the world. These views pose a dilemma. On the one hand, some developments in AI technologies must be kept secret for national security reasons. On the other, purposeful AI technologies in, for example, medical diagnosis or education may be slowed down because useful foreign knowledge is not accessed. In a recent paper, we take a step toward addressing this dilemma and describe AI knowledge dependencies worldwide (AlShebli et al. 2022). If dependencies are important, depriving the U.S. of AI knowledge created elsewhere can hamper social and economic development.
The Beijing dilemma: Dependencies in global artificial intelligence research | Brookings
China – Arctic
(Henry Hopwood-Phillips – ASPI The Strategist) Western analysts risk overestimating China’s emergence as an Arctic power, spurred by fears that they initially neglected the reappearance of the Arctic as a theatre for strategic competition. Contrary to such alarmist views, Beijing is in fact far more constrained in the region, mainly because of Russia’s ability to resist encroachment and China’s ability to accept limited resource and transit opportunities there.
Don’t overestimate China’s ambitions in the Arctic | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
China – Russia – Arctic
(Elizabeth Buchanan – RUSI) Despite some common interests, Russia and China have different goals in the Arctic.
China – Kyrgyzstan – Uzbekistan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing, Bishkek, and Tashkent have been discussing the construction of a joint railway project for almost 30 years, which runs the risk of completely unraveling due to geopolitical and alliance changes in Central Asia. Moscow and Astana are happy with the project’s delays, as the railway could take away significant economic revenues for Kazakhstan and Russia. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan face financial restraints in funding the project, and China, which could unilaterally finance it, has lost interest and seemingly does not view the project as a priority.
Shifting Geopolitics Threaten to Shelve China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway Project – Jamestown
China – USA
(Shahar Eilam, Ofir Dayan – The Institute for National Security Studies) Last week (April 24–26), US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited China, where he met with senior government officials, including President Xi Jinping.
(Anna Puglisi, Chryssa Rask – CSET) As the U.S. government considers banning genomics companies from China, it opens a broader question about how the United States and other market economies should deal with China’s “national champions.” This paper provides an overview of one such company—BGI—and how China’s industrial policy impacts technology development in China and around the world.
China, Biotechnology, and BGI | Center for Security and Emerging Technology (georgetown.edu)
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Priyanka Kher – World Bank blogs) In developing countries, regulatory risks can slow down critical investments for energy transition. The World Bank report—Enabling FDI in Renewable Energy Sector—explores regulatory risks in the renewable energy (power generation) sector and how it impacts countries’ FDI competitiveness. What measures are currently available to address investor issues related to such risks? And what types of policies and measures can governments put in place to reduce such risks to enable FDI?
Reducing Regulatory Risks to Enable FDI (worldbank.org)
(Ludovic Delplanque, Mika-Petteri Törhönen – World Bank blogs) Back in 2010, India launched its National Solar Mission, which set the goal of establishing India as a global leader in solar energy and a solution to bring electricity to hundreds of millions of people. Looking back, India had the sun on its side, and the political will to get this done. The other big hurdle was access to land, solar parks require a lot of space. That box got checked too, and by 2021 99.6% of India’s population had gained electricity access.
Why access to land is crucial to foster investments in sustainable infrastructure (worldbank.org)
Commodity Prices
(John Baffes, Kaltrina Temaj – World Bank blogs) Commodity prices are projected to experience a slight downturn in 2024 and 2025 but are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels. Energy prices are expected to decline by 3 percent in 2024, as notably lower prices of natural gas and coal offset higher oil prices, followed by a further decline of 4 percent in 2025. Agricultural prices are expected to ease as well in this year and next amid improved supply conditions. Metal prices are set to remain steady in 2024, before rising slightly in 2025. Although the price forecasts assume no further conflict escalation, risks remain tilted to the upside, stemming from the possibility of conflict in the Middle East and its consequent impact on energy supplies.
The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts (worldbank.org)
European Union
(Ana Palacio – ASPI The Strategist) Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, and with European Parliament elections looming, the narrow passage last month of the European Union’s Migrant and Asylum Pact has attracted relatively little attention. To be sure, the agreement is more remarkable for the mere fact of its enactment than its provisions. Nonetheless, it marks the culmination of a decade-long effort to reform the EU’s Dublin System for governing migration-related matters.
Why the EU’s new migration pact matters | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
European Union – China
(Ilan Mor – The Institute for National Security Studies) On April 22, almost a week after the German chancellor’s return from his visit to China, news broke about the arrest of four German citizens suspected of spying for China.
Hong Kong – USA
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) In this report, Scott Kennedy, Lily McElwee, and Jude Blanchette describe the ongoing developments in Hong Kong’s political, legal, and economic environment; likely implications for the city’s future as a global business hub; and the options available for U.S. policymakers to preserve a productive relationship that advances U.S. commercial interests while supporting the city’s remaining autonomy, consistent with Beijing’s international commitments.
The Erosion of Hong Kong’s Autonomy since 2020: Implications for the United States (csis.org)
Iran
(Mohsen Sazegara – Middle East Institute) This month marks the 45th anniversary of the founding of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Liberia
(World Bank blogs) Social registries, defined as information systems that support intake, registration, and eligibility assessment processes for social protection programs, are being developed and expanded in sub-Saharan Africa. In environments where data is scarce and informality is high, collecting and centralizing information on households or individuals offer significant potential for programming purposes. Social registries facilitate the adoption of common processes for program targeting and delivery, which can bring countries on a potentially more efficient path toward poverty reduction. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, countries that had an existing social registry responded faster and reached more people than others. In Liberia, where household-level surveys are infrequent, establishing a social registry through door-to-door data collection offers a unique opportunity that goes beyond administration of social protection programs.
Maldives
(Rene Leon Solano, Nicole Caroline Klingen – World Bank blogs) The future of Maldives depends on the potential of its people. To foster a more inclusive and resilient economy, in an already constrained fiscal environment, the Maldives must optimize its human capital investments.
Mexico
(Anna Kustar, Sandra López, José Hernández and Anamaría Martinez – World Resources Institute) Mexico became the first nation to declare access to safe mobility a human right in 2020 and two years later passed the General Law of Mobility and Road Safety to protect people, reduce collisions and promote sustainable modes of travel. Now, with this new constitutional mandate, it must redesign its streets to prioritize public transport modes and the safety of pedestrians and cyclists.
Middle East
(Christina Bouri and Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) An impending Israeli ground invasion of Rafah could threaten more than a million civilians seeking refuge in the city and further restrict humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
Few Options for Gazans as Israel Enters Rafah | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(The Institute for National Security Studies) The Data Analytics Desk at the INSS provides accurate and updated data during the Swords of Iron War, covering information on the Israeli internal front, the Gazan and Northern fronts, the West Bank, and the international arena.
Swords of Iron: an Overview | INSS
Mozambique
(Crisis Group) The southern African mission in Mozambique is slated to wrap up in July, but some troops will remain, as neighbouring countries worry that the jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado is rebounding.
What Future for Military Intervention in Mozambique? | Crisis Group
Pakistan
(Sajid Aziz – The Jamestown Foundation) The current wave of Baloch insurgency has grown increasingly sophisticated in its attacks over the last few years, adopting new tactics and targeting a wider array of high-value targets. As the Pakistani state is beset by a fresh wave of violence from the “Pakistani Taliban,” Baloch separatists are seeing greater success in their attacks the government and Chinese interests in the country.
Philippines – Digital Silk Road
(Julio S. Amador III, Deryk Matthew N. Baladjay – Lowy The Interpreter) The Philippines might be struggling against China’s encroachment in the South China Sea, but in the digital world, the two countries are locked in an embrace. China’s so-called “digital silk road” is driven by the view that it can help countries such as the Philippines overcome the “digital gaps” that prevent their economies from growing.
The Philippines and the Digital Silk Road | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow has proposed legal action to target the “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement,” an organization that, as far as journalists and analysts can deduce, does not exist. The proposal would allow the authorities to persecute Russian regionalists more aggressively, including those who are not opposed to federalism but simply demand increased regional, economic, and cultural self-governance. The Kremlin has previously used non-existent movements as a tactic to bring legal action against any citizen it considers a threat to its nationalist propaganda.
Kremlin Fights Non-Existent Global Movement of ‘Anti-Russian Separatists’ – Jamestown
Russia – China
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to make China the first foreign trip of his new presidential term, signaling his need to reaffirm the strategic partnership. Russia is closely monitoring US-China and EU-China dialogues ahead of the Ukraine peace summit in July, to which Beijing has not yet said whether it will send a delegation. Expanded EU and US willingness to take up measures against Chinese interests for China’s involvement with Russia could push Beijing to operate more cautiously with Moscow.
China Evaluates Partnership With Russia – Jamestown
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s dual-use Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) is running into roadblocks due to technological deterioration, freeing Moscow to become more aggressive in space affairs. The Russian space industry had relied on stores of imported components to weather the first rounds of Western sanctions, but now it is increasingly reliant on Chinese-made electronics. The use of Chinese parts in Russian navigation satellites hurts prospects for GLONASS to be fully modernized by 2030.
Russia’s Satellite Constellation Deteriorates, Increasing Dependency on China – Jamestown
Russia – Cyprus
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The FSB and other Russian intelligence agencies’ activities have transformed Cyprus into a Kremlin beachhead in Europe, going largely unnoticed. Moscow has long focused on European countries, like Cyprus, that are a part of the European Union but not NATO members, to undermine the West. The Cypriot government’s corrupt practice of issuing “golden passports” ended in 2020, but the Kremlin has a slew of options in Cyprus to carry out illicit economic activities and penetrate the West.
Russian Security Services Use Cyprus as EU Beachhead to Undermine the West – Jamestown
Serbia – China
(Nina Markovic Khaze – Lowy The Interpreter) Serbia this week became the first European country to pledge to build with China a “community with a shared future”.
Serbia is all aboard for the China ride | Lowy Institute
Syria
(Haid Haid – Middle East Institute) In recent weeks, the southern Syrian province of Sweida has seen a series of kidnappings targeting regime military officers. Unlike the financially motivated incidents common in the region, these abductions, which occurred on April 2 and 25, stand out because they targeted individuals based on their affiliation with the regime of Bashar al-Assad rather than their personal identities. Reports suggest that Sweida residents orchestrated the abductions as a way of negotiating the release of relatives detained by the regime.
USA – Japan – Australia – Philippines
(Richard Javad Heydarian – Lowy The Interpreter) A few days ago, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin hosted his counterparts from three allied nations – Japan, Australia and, crucially, the Philippines – in Hawaii, also home to the headquarters of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). The meeting marked the second gathering of the four defence ministers, who underscored their commitment to “advance a shared vision for a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific”.
“Squad” goals: Consolidating the new quadrilateral partnership | Lowy Institute
Uzbekistan
(David Knight, Obert Pimhidzai, Ikuko Uochi – World Bank blogs) Until spring 2024, Uzbekistan was one of the few countries in the world that lacked internationally comparable poverty estimates. For decades, the country had measured poverty in a way that could not be directly compared with the rest of the world, making it hard to understand how effective Uzbekistan’s progressive social and economic reforms were. But starting in 2017, when the country began participating in the International Comparison Program – a global effort to develop comparable price data managed by the World Bank under the auspices of the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC) – Uzbekistan began overhauling its poverty measurement system.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
