From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China
(Ann Listerud – The Jamestown Foundation) Senior Party and government officials have identified overcapacity as a major economic challenge, but state media have instead downplayed or denied its existence, framing concerns from the West as politically motivated. Regional governments have traditionally addressed overcapacity through top-down restrictions, but this strategy now conflicts with technological development goals, complicating policy implementation. Conflicting national signals on overcapacity have left regional policymakers cautious to address the issue directly, as misalignment with either national-level directives or media narratives could risk officials’ careers. Overcapacity’s real economic impact is visible in industries like construction materials, where demand collapse has caused job losses and pessimism, showcasing the long-term negative consequences of unchecked industrial growth. – The PRC’s Overcapacity Problem Depends on Who You Ask – Jamestown
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The Party sees culture as a tool to achieve its strategic ambitions both inside and outside the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Speeches, articles, and conferences portray it as central to achieving national rejuvenation. Party discourse on culture is shot through with militaristic terminology. Not just echoing Mao-era rhetoric, this reflects Beijing’s desire to “engineer souls” in pursuit of a strong nation. Artists, culture workers, and academics are perceived as pawns in a project to present the PRC globally as peaceful and prosperous, but the Party is aware of the deficiencies of its soft power. – The Art of War: PRC Weaponizes Culture to Galvanize the People – Jamestown
(Stefanie Kam – RSIS) China’s diaspora strategy under Xi Jinping has emerged as a crucial tool in advancing Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. As China’s global influence grows, it has increasingly focused on engaging its vast overseas diaspora, not only for economic purposes but also as a key component of its soft power initiatives. Balancing the benefits of diaspora engagement with the potential backlash will be a critical challenge for Beijing. – IP24090 | Global Ambassadors or Agents of Influence? How China’s Diaspora Drives Xi Jinping’s Geopolitical Ambitions – RSIS
China – Africa
(Adam Rousselle – The Jamestown Foundation) Weapons manufactured in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are increasingly falling into the hands of militant groups across Africa, with key contributors being state-owned defense contractors like Norinco. However, it is unclear how the weapons reach these groups. Militant groups such as Mali-based JNIM and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s M23 are employing PRC-manufactured arms in their operations, with evidence suggesting the potential involvement of Chinese criminal syndicates and corruption within PRC defense firms and African militaries. Extensive access to PRC-manufactured weapons by countries like Rwanda and Uganda, both of which support rebel groups, underscores the growing influence of PRC defense contractors in Africa, potentially contributing to regional conflicts. Beijing’s experience in Myanmar, where it supports both the government and rebel groups, may offer insights into its role in African conflicts, raising concerns about how escalating conflicts could strain Beijing’s partnerships and jeopardize its regional investments. – PRC-Manufactured Weapons Abound Among African Militant Groups – Jamestown
China – Taiwan
(Cheng-kun Ma, K. Tristan Tang – The Jamestown Foundation) The Joint Sword-2024B exercise on October 14 focused on quarantining Taiwan’s ports and establishing sea and air superiority. It showcased the ability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to coordinate maritime control with China Coast Guard (CCG) assets. “2024B” was the fourth exercise in the last three years. Each has moved progressively closer to Taiwan and increased in intensity—October 14 saw the PLA Air Force conduct at least 153 sorties, the highest in a single day, and the exercise involved the most naval vessels of any to date. CCG vessels activated their AIS tracking signals, in a bid to intimidate, but also to routinize their patrols as part of the PRC’s jurisdictional claims in the Taiwan Strait. – Joint Sword-2024B: Quarantining Key Ports and Seizing Comprehensive Superiority – Jamestown
European Union
(Dora Meredith – ODI) The European Union continues to punch below its weight on the international stage, while shifting geopolitical trends mean the stakes are higher than they have been in decades. Conflicts, pandemics, the climate crisis, trade disputes, inequitable technological advances, attacks on human rights – the challenges facing us today are increasingly globalised in nature. Despite the magnitude of the agenda and the urgency to act, the international order is broken. Against this backdrop, the gaps in the EU’s foreign policy capabilities are becoming clear for all to see. – Europe and the new world order | ODI: Think change
European Union – China
(Laura von Daniels – Brookings) After the presidential elections in the United States, the European Union (EU) may seek to use the discussion of common economic security measures against China as a means of preserving or enhancing the trans-Atlantic relationship. But to get there, it will have to overcome current resistance from Germany and other EU member states to the use of coercive economic instruments. Will the EU agree to use economic sanctions against China?
Haiti
(Danielle Saint-Lôt – United States Institute of Peace) Despite facing some of the worst political instability and social upheaval in its history over the last decade, Haiti now has an opportunity to move forward. The selection of an effective prime minister by a Transitional Presidential Council offers the country a chance to restore security and hold elections for the first time since 2016. But for any progress to last, there will need to be a mix of transitional and transformational leadership. And that means mobilizing and respecting the essential role of women, who are currently underrepresented at all levels of government and influence. – Haiti’s Transition Can’t Succeed Without Women’s Leadership | United States Institute of Peace
Horn of Africa
(Gerrit Kurtz, Stephan Roll, Tobias von Lossow – German Institute for International and Security Affairs) In recent months, relations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia have deteriorated significantly. Previously separate disputes have become intertwined: namely the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the use of Nile waters and the disagreement between Ethiopia and Somalia regarding the recognition of Somaliland. The three countries use threats to improve their respective positions in these conflicts. While an inter-state military escalation does not seem imminent at present, regional tensions are likely to rise, which could further empower the jihadist Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia. Germany and the European Union (EU) should recognise the highly complex interdependence of these lines of conflict, remind the countries concerned of their common interest in stabilising Somalia, and continue to advocate for dialogue in the Nile dispute. At the same time, it is also important to hold other influential actors more accountable to contribute to regional stability. – Escalations Risks in the Horn of Africa – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
India – China
(Andrew Scobell, Ph.D., Sameer P. Lalwani, Ph.D., Daniel Markey, Ph.D. – United States Institute of Peace) Since a 2020 clash between Indian and Chinese troops along their countries’ long disputed border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), friction has mounted between the two Asian powers. But the two sides reached a deal in late October to de-escalate tensions. Although the details remain murky, India and China have already pulled back troops from two key flashpoint areas on the Himalayan frontier. Still, it remains to be seen what this means for the broader, frosty India-China relationship. The U.S. and India have significantly strengthened security ties in recent years, in part responding to China’s rise and aggressive behavior in the region. So, Washington will be watching closely to see what comes next. – How the India-China Border Deal Impacts Their Ties and the U.S. | United States Institute of Peace
Russia – North Korea
(Karolina Hird, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil – Institute for the Study of War) North Korea has deployed a contingent of troops to Russia in support of Russia’s war in Ukraine —the latest development in intensified cooperation between the two countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Kremlin is likely to leverage North Korean manpower to support its ongoing offensive efforts and offset requirements of Russia’s domestic force generation capacity. The impacts of the deployment of North Korean troops into the Ukrainian theater of operations extend far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine, however. Pyongyang likely hopes that North Korean military personnel will gain combat experience in the conditions of contemporary war — experience that it may hope to apply to future conflicts it may fight. The alignment between North Korea and Russia poses the distinct possibility of threatening the long-term stability of the Korean Peninsula and the broader Asia-Pacific region. – North Korea Joins Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Operational and Strategic Implications in Ukraine and Northeast Asia | Institute for the Study of War
UK – South Korea
(Sang Hun Seok – RUSI) As the UK and South Korea mark the first anniversary of their elevated relationship, what has been achieved, and what more can be done to fully realise their strategic partnership? – Is the UK–South Korea Strategic Partnership Living Up to its Promise? | Royal United Services Institute
United Nations
(Crisis Group) When world leaders met at the UN General Assembly in September, they concentrated on the wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan. An analysis of their speeches highlights the relative importance that different groups of states placed on each of these crises. – The Conflicts Competing for Attention at the United Nations | Crisis Group
USA
(James M. Lindsay – Council on Foreign Relations) Two thousand twenty-four has been unkind to incumbents around the world. The “mother-of-all-election years” has seen voters in the United Kingdom send the ruling Conservative Party packing. In June, the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority in South Africa for the first time. Japan’s long dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in elections just two weeks ago. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap parliamentary elections this summer backfired spectacularly. The three parties in Germany’s ruling “traffic-light coalition” each got a thumbs down from voters in critical state elections last month. Will the United States be yet another country to see the incumbent administration go down to defeat? – Election 2024: Will the United States Follow or Buck the Anti-Incumbent Trend? | Council on Foreign Relations
(Crisis Group) Nearly four years after former President Donald Trump encouraged a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol, he is running in another close presidential contest. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna assesses the threat of fresh violence and the implications for U.S. politics. – Risks of Violence around the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: A Primer | Crisis Group
USA – Angola
(Witney Schneidman – Brookings) During the December 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, D.C., President Joe Biden promised to travel to Africa in the coming year. Few envisioned that it would take 24 months to fulfill this commitment, now likely to occur in early December with a two-day visit to Angola, weeks before the end to his storied political career. One would be forgiven for asking if the visit is too little, too late. That would be a mistake, however. The visit will deepen the U.S. relationship with Angola, an increasingly important partner for the U.S. in Africa. Biden’s visit will also highlight the Lobito Corridor initiative, an innovative and potentially impactful undertaking by the U.S., the European Union, the governments of Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as well as other key stakeholders in the region. – Why Biden’s visit to Angola matters
