From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Landry Signé – Brookings) While many scholars emphasize how the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) might leave African countries behind, they often overlook the fact that, as I show in my book Africa’s Fourth Industrial Revolution, some African countries are actually outperforming the rest of the world in certain key areas. For example, Mauritius is the global leader in three key indicators: widespread internet access in schools, e-commerce legislation, and venture capital investors. Meanwhile, Senegal is home to the top unicorn value in proportion to GDP thanks to the billion-dollar valuation mobile money company Wave—Francophone Africa’s first unicorn startup. – Leading the digital and Fourth Industrial Revolutions in Africa
Asia
(Greg Earl – Lowy The Interpreter) The poor result for the region’s most successful electoral machine in Japan on Sunday has only underlined a surprisingly bad year for incumbents across Asia. – Asia’s year of electoral upsets | Lowy Institute
Indonesia – BRICS
(Klaus Heinrich Raditio – Lowy The Interpreter) Indonesia has officially become a new BRICS partner, joining countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Türkiye, Nigeria, Cuba and Kazakhstan. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono announced this shift last week at the most recent BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. Last year, at talks in Johannesburg, South Africa, China advocated for the expansion of BRICS and Indonesia was identified as a potential member supported by all five existing BRICS nations. However, Indonesia’s then president Joko Widodo was hesitant. He was still weighing the pros and cons, he said, and that there was no urgency for Jakarta to pursue membership. – Understanding Indonesia’s decision to (eventually) join BRICS | Lowy Institute
Iran
(The Soufan Center) Since 2018, Iran has intensified its use of criminal networks as proxies for executing attacks and operations abroad, particularly in Europe, targeting individuals and interests viewed as threats to the revolutionary regime. In the context of increasing confrontations with Israel, Tehran has expanded its targets from Iranian dissidents to Israeli and Jewish individuals, as well as journalists, LGBTQ+ activists, and other perceived adversaries. Iran’s engagement with criminal gangs demonstrates a strategic pivot in its national security strategy, leveraging organized crime networks to pursue its geopolitical goals while avoiding direct conflict. The use of criminal organizations as state proxies can augment the operational capabilities of these groups, potentially fueling organized crime in Europe and ultimately facilitating discord in Western societies. – Hidden Warfare: Iran’s Growing Dependence on Criminal Networks – The Soufan Center
Moldova
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) The Moldovan government has combined its presidential election with a constitutional referendum to enshrine Moldova’s goal to join the European Union. The referendum on October 20 was inconclusive and current President Maia Sandu must face the runner-up, Alexander Stoianoglo, in a second round. Stoianoglo is a fellow traveler of the Russia-oriented Socialist Party under former President Igor Dodon. Stoianoglo expects to collect the votes of minor Russophile candidates who dropped out in the first round. The referendum’s geographical breakdown shows the “No” vote prevailing in the north and south of the country while the “Yes” vote prevails in the center. The referendum was defeated within the country but was highly successful among the Moldovan diaspora. – Moldova’s European Referendum Inconclusive, Presidency at Risk (Part One) – Jamestown
New Caledonia – Pacific Islands Forum
(Nicole George – Lowy The Interpreter) Since early August, the Pacific Islands Forum has sought permission to send a leader’s delegation to New Caledonia to “address the ongoing tensions” that have shaken the territory since May this year. After repeated delays, the PIF visit commenced for four days from 27 October and involved four of the region’s statesmen: Forum Chair, Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni, the Prime Minister of Tonga; Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown; Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka; and Solomon Islands Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter-Shanel Agovaka. – An all-male Pacific peace mission to New Caledonia excludes women’s voices in the crisis | Lowy Institute
North Korea – Russia
(Chatham House) North Korea is sending troops to Russia, but what is Kim Jong-Un hoping to get from Vladmir Putin for this military assistance against Ukraine? The panel also discuss the role military conscription plays in Israel, South Korea and Ukraine’s defence. Bronwen Maddox is joined by Edward Howell, the Korea Foundation fellow at Chatham House, Orysia Lutsevych, the head of our Ukraine Forum and Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow with our Middle East and North Africa Programme. – Independent Thinking: Why is North Korea sending troops to Russia? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s continuing population decline means it will soon not have enough people to run its economy and fight in its wars. Russian President Vladimir Putin is talking ever more about falling fertility rates but doing little to decrease the increasingly high mortality rates. Russia’s birthrate reflects underlying social changes, such as urbanization, and is at about the same level as other industrialized countries. Its mortality rate, however, is far higher, in part due to Russia’s failure to support the health of its citizens. Putin is loath to address the mortality rate, as it would be both expensive and require him to change his goals in Ukraine. As a result, Russia’s demographic decline and the restrictions it will impose are likely to last as long as he remains in power. – To Combat Demographic Decline, Moscow Must Focus on Mortality Rather than Fertility – Jamestown
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, governments in Eastern Europe have begun reducing the presence of the Russian language in their education systems to combat Moscow’s influence and the Russification of their populations. The preservation of the Russian language abroad is a significant soft-power tool for Moscow. Russia is working to preserve Russian’s status in Central Asia, expand its use in higher education systems in the region, and foster Russian-language education in Africa. The more Moscow’s soft power erodes, the more likely Russia will resort to hard power—as seen in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova—to secure its diminishing role in the post-Soviet space in the future. – Kremlin Prioritizes Russian Language in Moscow’s Near Abroad – Jamestown
Türkiye
(Simon Waldman – RUSI) Turkey’s bid to join BRICS underscores Erdogan’s ambition for global influence, but the suspicion and distrust generated by Ankara’s past actions cast doubt on his great power aspirations. – Turkey, BRICS and Erdogan’s Global Aspirations | Royal United Services Institute
USA
(Kat Duffy, Jacob Ware – Council on Foreign Relations) With less than a week before the 2024 presidential election, physical and digital threats to U.S. election infrastructure remain a risk. Already, actors hostile to the functioning of liberal democracy have worked to disrupt the free exercise of the United States’ upcoming election, perhaps never more evidently than an assassination attempt that narrowly avoided killing former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump. However, it is vital that such threats are properly contextualized to avoid either exaggerating or downplaying the challenges U.S. democracy faces. – Understanding the Threats to U.S. Election Security in 2024 | Council on Foreign Relations
(Gabriel R. Sanchez and Stephen Nuño-Perez – Brookings) On October 25, 2024, President Biden chose Arizona as the backdrop for his apology on behalf of the American government to Tribal communities for the forced participation of Native American children in boarding schools across the country. Although economic issues are the top overall priorities for Native American respondents in the survey, when asked what the most important Native American or Tribal issues were to them, preservation of culture and language was noted by 25% of respondents. Biden won the state of Arizona by just under 10,500 votes in 2020—a fact that further underscores the decisive role Native Americans may play in the 2024 presidential election. – Biden’s apology for boarding schools may boost Native American vote for Arizona Democrats
(Anthony F. Pipa, Zoe Swarzenski – Brookings) There is no single definition of rural. Different delineations by the Office of Management and Budget and Census Bureau are most commonly used, and the wide diversity of classifications impacts policy and eligibility. Not all “small” places are rural. Areas with small populations may not be rural by federal definitions, though they may appear so in the public eye, which affects how these places and their needs are perceived. Rural America is growing in racial and ethnic diversity, with a notable increase in Hispanic residents driving recent growth. Rural America has extremes, from persistently high-poverty areas to thriving ones. There are challenges in housing, labor, and access to federal resources, but there is also growth in industries like renewable energy. Federal support is fragmented. New federal investments and initiatives target rural communities and aim to streamline resources, though rural areas face challenges competing for these funds with larger jurisdictions. – What everyone should know about rural America ahead of the 2024 election
