From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China – Europe
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) Watching China in Europe is a monthly update from GMF’s Indo-Pacific Program. Now more than ever, the transatlantic partners need clarity and cohesion when it comes to China policy. In this monthly newsletter, Noah Barkin—a senior visiting fellow at GMF and senior advisor at Rhodium Group—provides his personal observations and analysis on the most pressing China-related developments and activities throughout Europe. – Watching China in Europe—November 2024 | German Marshall Fund of the United States
European Union
(Frida Rintakumpu – German Marshall Fund of the United States) A landmark report by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, published on October 30, offers recommendations for strengthening European military and civil preparedness in response to a rapidly worsening geopolitical and security landscape. The study, requested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last March, will inform the Commission’s forthcoming Preparedness Union Strategy and a white paper on the future of European defense. – A Prepared Union | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Ignacio Molina – Elcano Royal Institute) This paper examines how the EU should strengthen is capacity for action and improve its governance considering the magnitude of the challenges it faces and, in particular, the medium-term prospect that the number of its members may rise to 35. – Deepening for widening: A Spanish perspective on the reforms needed to ensure and improve the governance of an enlarged EU – Elcano Royal Institute
European Union – USA
(Judith Arnal, Enrique Feás – Elcano Royal Institute) In recent decades the EU seems to have been lagging behind the US both economically and technologically. Identifying the key elements that underlie the differences in competitiveness has therefore become a matter of necessity. This paper addresses the competitiveness of the EU in comparison with that of the US, using the nine key performance indicators (KPIs) identified by the European Commission in its communication titled ‘Long-term competitiveness of the EU: looking beyond 2030’ as well as other complementary indicators. The analysis shows that: the EU is less dynamic in its trade in services (suggesting regulatory and administrative barriers in the single market); it has a higher level of private investment as a percentage of GDP, but its venture capital investment is much lower (limiting the development of cutting-edge companies); it falls slightly behind the US in public investment, although its fiscal sustainability is better; it spends less on R&D+i, which affects its potential for growth; it makes greater use of renewable energy, but its industrial energy costs are higher; it shows potential in material recycling, although there are areas for improvement; it lags behind the US in digitalisation, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises; it has a lower percentage of adults with advanced digital skills and IT specialists; and it has a greater share of global exports (although this has declined in recent decades). The analysis is supplemented by considerations concerning the differences in productivity, the quantity and complexity of the regulatory burden, company size and the efficiency of the public sector. – Competitiveness: the widening gap between the EU and the US – Elcano Royal Institute
Georgia
(Elene Kintsurashvili – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The October 26, 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia were marred by widespread violations, suggesting a systematic scheme of fraud aimed at undermining the electoral process. – Elections Under Siege: Georgia In Crisis | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Japan
(Yuki Tatsumi – Stimson Center) At the October 27 General Election in Japan, Japanese voters spoke loud and clear: they are fed up with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Barely a month after Shigeru Ishiba was elected to succeed Fumio Kishida as Japan’s 102nd prime minister, his LDP-Komeito ruling coalition suffered the biggest election defeat since 2009. With the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition coming short of 20 seats from a majority, Ishiba needs to find a way forward in order to keep the LDP-Komeito coalition in power before the Diet meets to elect the new prime minister on November 11. – Japan’s October Surprise: Déjà Vu All Over Again? • Stimson Center
NATO – Russia
(John Tefft, William Courtney – RAND Corporation) As long as rulers in Moscow use force to pursue imperial ambition, Russia’s neighbors and NATO members will be under threat. Multiple factors could affect this, including the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s capacity to rebuild military power while repressing domestic opposition, and Western resolve. In 2002, at a Summit in Rome, a high-profile Russia-NATO Council was created. It was to help alliance members and Russia to work as “equal partners” on “security issues of common interest.” Putin attended the conference and called the Council a “good tool“ to address mutual concerns. However, Russia resented its lack of veto power over NATO actions, especially enlargement. – Russia’s Imperial Ambitions Are a Clear Threat to NATO | RAND
Spain
(William Chislett – Elcano Royal Institute) The evolution of Spain’s economy over the past 750 years to its current position as the world’s 15th largest in terms of nominal GDP (and 34th in per capita GDP) has been a long and winding road, with alternating periods of stagnation and growth. – The ups and downs of Spain’s centuries-long economic development – Elcano Royal Institute
USA
(Brian Michael Jenkins – RAND Corporation) The most dangerous period America faces in terms of election violence is not now through Election Day, but in the 76 days between Election Day on November 5 and Inauguration Day on January 20. – The 76 Dangerous Days Between the Election and the Inauguration | RAND
(Lindsay Gorman, Caitlin Goldenberg, Isabella Nieminen – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Since its emergence onto the social media scene in 2016, viral video app TikTok has exploded in popularity, dominating the screentime of a reported one billion monthly active users worldwide today. This year, the app’s user base has made it an all-but-unavoidable tool for US presidential and vice-presidential candidates, who have used TikTok to make their bids to voters. Yet researchers and lawmakers’ initial national security concerns surrounding the potential for malign influence due to TikTok’s ownership ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have only become louder as additional voices in Washington and beyond have joined the chorus. To address these concerns, in 2024 Congress passed and President Biden signed House Resolution (HR) 7521 to force TikTok to divest from its PRC-based parent company ByteDance or face a ban in the United States. This was mere months before the president’s campaign joined the platform itself. – TikTok Tactics: 2024 US Candidates Dance Around Security Risks | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) Americans vote in this year’s consequential presidential election in an environment marked by growing threats, including the weaponization of artificial intelligence (AI), influence campaigns run by foreign authoritarian adversaries, and false election narratives that threaten to undermine faith in the US election system. – What to Watch: ASD at GMF Experts Share Thoughts on the 2024 US Election | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Carlota García Encina – Elcano Royal Institute) There are only a few days to go before a decisive election is held in the US; but the electoral cycle goes beyond 5 November. The primary stage, which enables the presidential and their vice-presidential candidates to be chosen, ended at the start of summer and culminated in the Republican and Democrat conventions in July and August respectively. Now two more phases draw to a close: the electoral campaign, which culminates on 5 November, centred on the so-called swing statesand attention focused on elections to the Senate and House of Representatives; and the transition period, when the votes are counted and certified, and the transfer of powers takes place. This will conclude on 20 January with the inauguration of the new occupant of the White House, as stipulated in the 20th amendment to the US Constitution. – The US elections: campaign, transition and inauguration – Elcano Royal Institute
