From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Arctic
(Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) This year at New York Climate Week, the Arctic Initiative, in collaboration with the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation and Woodwell Climate Research Institute, co-hosted an event at the Explorers Club on September 23, 2024. “Beyond the Ice: The Worldwide Impacts of Arctic Extremes” sought to integrate Arctic issues into the broader climate conversation. The event addressed the multifaceted impacts of rapid transformation in the Arctic and underscored the urgent need for action. – Beyond the Ice: The Worldwide Impacts of Arctic Extremes | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
(Marie-Anne Coninsx – EGMONT) Science, research and innovation play a key role in increasing our knowledge of the Arctic, in understanding the changes of the region and hence in contributing to providing policy responses to the huge challenges it is facing. It is an illustration of the importance of science diplomacy. Science diplomacy has different dimensions. This article will address how science contributes to evidence-based policymaking in turbulent times. While science and technology play an increasingly important role in the geopolitical arena, it has been claimed that science diplomacy in the Arctic has been severely impacted by geopolitics. Though some negative effects are clearly observable, it is worthwhile to assess the real dimension of the impact of reduced scientific cooperation with Russia. Indeed, a closer look at recent developments demonstrates that current geopolitics did create new opportunities for science diplomacy in and for the Arctic, which cannot be neglected. – Science Diplomacy in and for the Arctic: Opportunities in Turbulent Times – Egmont Institute
Arctic – Russia
(Maxim Starchak – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) The war in Ukraine continues to drain Russia’s resources away from critical areas, including nuclear security in the Arctic. Despite this, Moscow remains committed to the development of this strategic region, and has not stopped building nuclear sites there. In September, Norway detected elevated levels of radioactive Cesium-137 near its Arctic border with Russia. As Russia is no longer cooperating with other nations on nuclear safety in the Arctic, this is unlikely to be the last such report. – Russia’s Arctic Policy Poses a Growing Nuclear Threat – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bulgaria
(Asya Metodieva – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Bulgarians have voted again for a new parliament. However, forming a new government seems like “Mission Impossible”, considering the positions of the parties that will be represented. – Bulgaria’s Quest for a Stable Government Goes On | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Central Africa
(Crisis Group) Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, speaks about how leaders in Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon are navigating a changing world, what they are doing to stay in power and what it means for the region’s stability. – Strongmen and Geopolitical Jostling in Central Africa | Crisis Group
Climate Action
(Crystal Davis, Charles (Chip) Barber – World Resources Institute) Between Oct. 21 and Nov. 2, Cali, Colombia hosted some 23,000 people at the UN biodiversity summit. Political leaders from nearly 200 countries were joined by representatives from Indigenous communities, youth groups, business leaders, NGOs and others. All came for a shared purpose: to halt Earth’s rampant biodiversity loss. – COP16 Outcome: With Biodiversity Talks Stalled, What’s Next? | World Resources Institute
(Preety Bhandari, Nate Warszawski, Deirdre Cogan and Rhys Gerholdt – World Resources Institute) The planet has already warmed by approximately 1.3 degrees C (2.3 degrees F) due to human-induced climate change. Millions of people today are facing the real-life consequences of higher temperatures, rising seas, fiercer storms and unpredictable rainfall. – What to Know About “Loss and Damage” from Climate Change | World Resources Institute
(Sophie Boehm, Clea Schumer, Kelly Levin, Joel Jaeger, Judit Hecke, Danial Riaz, Raychel Santo, Katie Lebling, Anna Nilsson, Emily Daly, Marie-Charlotte Geffray, Neil Grant, Louise Jeffery and Michelle Sims – World Resources Institute) The UN’s most recent Emissions Gap Report issues a clear warning: Current policies and national climate commitments fall well short of what’s needed to rein in climate change. Here’s the science: Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels is essential for avoiding increasingly severe and widespread climate change impacts, but doing so requires cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 42% by 2030 and 56% by 2035, relative to 2023. Current policies alone will achieve less than a 1% reduction by 2030 and 2035. – Sectoral Emissions Reductions Needed in 2030 and 2035 | World Resources Institute
(Bonnie S. Glaser, Michael Davidson – German Marshall Fund of the United States) China is the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, accounting for one-third of global CO2 emissions. One of its biggest sources of emissions is coal, which plays a central role in China’s economy. At the same time, however, China is the world’s leading supplier of renewable energy, largely due to significant government investments in green technologies, including solar manufacturing, batteries, and minerals. In September 2020, China’s leader Xi Jinping announced the goal of achieving peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.” This ambitious pledge, if realized, will be an important step in global efforts to limit global warming. – Assessing Drivers and Progress in China’s Climate Policies | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Ferid Belhaj – Policy Center for the New South) This paper examines the complex interplay between global climate ambitions and national interests within the New South—defined as a diverse group of emerging economies, each pursuing distinct geopolitical strategies, economic priorities, and development goals—seen through a realist lens at the COP29 climate summit. As the climate crisis deepens, the geopolitical stakes involved in climate governance become more pronounced. The New South, grappling with the dual challenges of economic development and environmental vulnerability, finds itself navigating between international climate commitments and the imperatives of national security, energy needs, and sovereignty. Taking a realist international relations perspective, the paper explores how countries from the New South, including emerging powers and resource-rich nations, prioritize state-centric goals in the face of shifting global power dynamics. At COP29, hosted by gas-producing Azerbaijan, these tensions underscore the limitations of multilateral climate agreements, as national interests take precedence over global cooperation. The analysis explores the role of climate finance, energy security, and geopolitical alliances, offering an insight into how the realist approach can better explain the current global climate impasse, and its implications for the future of international climate negotiations. – Navigating Climate Change Through a Realist Prism: New South, Global Ambitions, and National Interests at COP29
(Thibaud Voïta – French Institute of International Relations) Les marchés volontaires du carbone (MVC) ont un potentiel élevé, notamment pour réduire le déficit de financement de la lutte contre le changement climatique, en particulier en Afrique. – Les marchés du carbone peuvent-ils faire une percée à la COP29 ? | Ifri
European Union – Middle East – Eastern Mediterranean
(Bernard Siman – EGMONT) The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared. – Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean – Egmont Institute
Geostrategies
(Mina Baliamoune – Policy Center for the New South) Using panel data from a large group of developing economies and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we examine the effects of trade and other factors on female labor-force participation and wage employment. We focus particularly on comparing the effects of trade openness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The empirical results indicate that trade openness affects female labor-force participation and wage employment differently in these three regions. Moreover, the effects of other determinants of labor market outcomes, such as income, education, fertility, and electricity, also vary by region. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for the MENA region. – Trade And Women In The Labor Market: How Different Is MENA From Other Regions?
Global South
(Sunaina Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) The G20, which started in response to the Asian financial meltdown of the late 1990s and was later elevated to a leaders’ summit after the global financial crisis in 2008, has evolved from being a talk shop to the political and economic steering committee for the world. More recently, though, the G20 has emerged as the primary forum for elevating the voice of the Global South. Brazil will host the next leaders’ summit on 18-19 November, having taken over from India in 2023, and will then pass the baton to South Africa. This will become the fourth consecutive year, starting with Indonesia in 2022, that the G20 presidency will be held by a country of the Global South. In these four years, the Global South agenda has been placed at the front and centre of global governance. – A greater G20, and BRICS- by-BRICS, the Global South-led reform of international governance
(Hakim Ben Hammouda – French Institute of International Relations) La réponse du Sud global à ces risques de fragmentation peut être analysée comme prenant deux formes principales : l’une politique, le multi-alignement, l’autre économique, visant à réduire les risques (de-risking). Par le multi-alignement, les pays du Sud cherchent à élargir leurs alliances avec les principaux pôles mondiaux, en se libérant des contraintes idéologiques du passé afin de réduire les risques géopolitiques. La réduction des risques passe par le renforcement de la coopération économique au sein du Sud. Cette Note de l’Ifri analyse et illustre ces réponses. – Multi-alignement et de-risking. Les réponses du Sud global à la fragmentation du monde | Ifri
Haiti
(Crisis Group) Haiti has filed a formal request for a blue-helmet force to help national police fight the criminal gangs bedevilling the country. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Daniel Forti examine the main questions about mounting such an operation. – Weighing the Case for a New Peacekeeping Mission to Haiti | Crisis Group
India – ASEAN
(Simran Walia – Centre for Air Power Studies) With increased commercial and investment flows, friend-shoring, and people-to-people interactions, ASEAN-India relations have only strengthened. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) level has been reached in the relationship between ASEAN and India. The 21st ASEAN-India Summit was held on October 10 in Vientiane, Laos. This year’s summit holds more pertinence as the year 2024 also marks a decade of India’s Act-East Policy. – Key Takeaways from 21st India-ASEAN Summit: A Comprehensive Partnership – CAPS India
Jammu and Kashmir
(Sofiya Azad – IISS) The unprecedented resurgence of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference Party (NC) in elections held in the India-controlled region, which concluded on 1 October, signifies a pivotal moment in the tumultuous political landscape of the union territory. The elections – the first to be held following the repeal of the region semi-autonomous status that placed it under federal government rule – saw the NC emerge as the greatest beneficiary of protest votes against the central government’s decision. However, the new administration faces several governance challenges. – Challenges ahead for Jammu and Kashmir’s new government
Maldives – India
(N. Sathiya Moorthy – Observer Research Foundation) For the second time in a row, the Maldivian government has claimed that President Mohamed Muizzu’s India visit this year was ‘successful’. Returning from Delhi after attending Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in June, Muizzu himself said as much. It was unlike Muizzu’s sensational and controversial news conference after his China visit in mid-January that further strained Maldives’ India relations. By avoiding newsmen on his return from the five-day India visit, Muizzu was avoiding queries, drawing local political criticism on his achievements in New Delhi. It prompted questions from the immediate predecessor, Ibrahim Solih from the Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), as to why the incumbent decided to proceed with the same agreements with India that the latter had portrayed as a national security threat during their 2023 presidential campaign. – Maldives: Expectations from Muizzu’s second ‘successful’ India visit
Middle East
(Institute for the Study of War) Iran-Israel conflict: Iran reportedly warned some Arab countries that it will conduct a complex attack in retaliation for the recent IDF strikes on Iran. Tehran reportedly plans to use drones and missiles, some of which will have heavier payloads than what Iran has previously fired at Israel. The upcoming attack will reportedly include the IRGC and conventional Iranian military.
Gaza Strip: Hamas and Fatah officials met in Cairo to discuss post-war governance in the Gaza Strip and agreed to form an administrative committee to manage borders and other civil affairs. Hamas seeks to establish an intra-Palestinian government that Hamas can ultimately control as an alternative to a UAE plan that would exclude Hamas from post-war governance in the strip.
Iran: A female Iranian student removed some of her clothing in protest after being reportedly harassed and assaulted by regime security forces. She has rapidly become an online symbol of the Iranian protest movement standing against regime oppression and efforts to enforce behavioral standards on the Iranian population. – Iran Update, November 4, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War
(Carnegie Diwan) Mohanad Hage Ali is the deputy director for research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut where his work focuses on the shifting geopolitics and Islamist groups after the Arab uprisings. Hage Ali is from south Lebanon and wrote his doctoral dissertation on Hezbollah, later published as a book, titled Nationalism, Transnationalism, and Political Islam: Hizbullah’s Institutional Identity (Palgrave Macmillan, 2018). Diwan interviewed him in late October to get his perspective on the ongoing war in Lebanon, as large segments of the country, particularly areas of Shiite concentration, have been devastated by Israeli bombing. – Toward a Shiite Urbicide? – Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Raz Zimmt – INSS) The recent escalation in Iranian threats over the past two days, including statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader, could suggest that Iran’s dilemma between two unfavorable options — either responding militarily to Israel despite significant risks or refraining from a response at the cost of further eroding its deterrence — has been resolved in favor of a military reaction although its precise timing and nature have yet to be finalized. – Preparing for the Iranian Response: Tehran’s Three Working Assumptions | INSS
(Claude Rakisits – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The Knesset’s decision to vote to expel UNRWA from Israel is another major set-back for the Palestinian people. It’s also part of Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to remove all obstacles to his government’s plans to redraw the geostrategic map of the region. – UNRWA’s Expulsion and What it Means – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian industrial output index comparing January–September 2024 to January–September 2023 is 104.4 percent, demonstrating economic growth when considering the data in rubles. The inflation of the ruble makes it seem as if the Russian military-industrial complex is growing. However, when considering these numbers by volume, there appears to be no significant growth since last year. Western sanctions have hindered Russia’s ability to produce arms and other essential products domestically, meaning Russia will likely increasingly depend on China, North Korea, Iran, and other authoritarian regimes to maintain its dwindling economy. – Arms Manufacturing in Russia in January–September 2024 Demonstrates No Growth – Jamestown
(Dmitri Kartsev – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s infamous 2016 quip that “there is no end to Russia’s borders” felt threatening even then. Post-February 24, 2022, it seems to be his regime’s foreign policy creed—especially considering that an ultimatum for the United States and NATO to curb their military presence in former Warsaw Pact countries preceded the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s rhetoric around international relations is often said to have a neo-imperialist bent: one in which independent states conducting their own foreign policy are a problem that must be solved, rather than a reality that must be accepted. Since conventional nation-states cannot exist without territory, redrawing borders is a key instrument of imperialist policy. – When Did Russia Decide That Borders Could Be Moved? – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia – Iran
(Emil Avdaliani – The Jamestown Foundation) Cooperation between Iran and Russia has improved incrementally since 2022, especially in the military sphere. The two countries are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement toward the end of this year. Moscow and Tehran have faced challenges due to Western sanctions and are eager to introduce an agreement that would reflect their evolving partnership and shared opposition to the collective West. The rise of transnational organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization marks a new era in global geopolitics, with Russia and Iran positioning themselves as ascending powers. – Iran and Russia Seek to Reshape Global Hegemony with New Bilateral Agreement – Jamestown
Russia – North Korea
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is leveraging the United States’ preoccupation with its presidential election to advance its strategic interests, bringing in additional military support from North Korea with the arrival of North Korean troops and supplies. This alliance benefits both parties, as North Korea gains technological support for its missile program. This has raised alarm internationally, particularly in South Korea and Japan, with Ukraine labeling it an escalation and a threat to global security. The Russian-North Korean alliance and the ambivalence of autocratic states such as China and Iran underscore a divide with democratic nations, prompting renewed Western solidarity and potential increased support for Ukraine. – Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil – Jamestown
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Institute for the Stydy of War) Russian and pro-Kremlin actors launched an information operation on November 4 to discredit incumbent Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s victory in the Moldovan presidential elections.
Georgian civil society and opposition resumed peaceful demonstrations on November 4 against the highly contested October 26 Georgian parliamentary elections, calling for continued resistance and further investigations into large-scale voting irregularities.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Sistema project released an investigation on November 4 detailing Russia’s initial 2022 demands for Ukraine’s total capitulation, further supporting ISW’s long-standing assessment that Russia has never been willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine on any terms but its own.
Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Summer 2024 reportedly significantly impacted Ukrainian electrical generation capacity compared to March 2024, though it is unclear whether Russia had been able to inflict significant further damage on the Ukrainian energy grid since.
The Kremlin-awarded founder and director of the prominent Rybar Telegram channel and social media project attempted to falsely portray himself as a non-Kremlin actor in the Western media and confirmed the Kremlin’s efforts to establish “media schools” abroad.
Russian authorities arrested Rosgvardia’s Deputy Head of Logistics Major General Mirza Mirzaev for bribery on November 3.
Russian forces advanced near Novy Put, Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces advanced in Kharkiv Oblast and Russian forces advanced in the Kupyansk, Kreminna, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues attempts to form a cadre of loyal military journalists in an effort to control the pro-war Russian information space and centralize control over Russia’s war coverage. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War
Taiwan – Africa – China
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) The recent decision by South Africa’s newly formed Government of National Unity (GNU) to relocate the unofficial Taiwanese embassy, known as the “Taipei Liaison Office,” from Pretoria to Johannesburg reflects pressure from the Chinese government and forceful imposition of its One China principle. The instruction to rename the liaison office as a trade office further underscores the non-diplomatic nature of the relationship, aligning with China’s concerted efforts to isolate and intimidate Taiwan globally. Ultimately, there was little Taiwan could have done to prevent this outcome. Despite its historical ties to South Africa’s apartheid regime, Taiwan has struggled to maintain its influence since the formation of the Black-majority government led by the African National Congress (ANC). – Taiwan’s Shrinking Footprint in Africa Amid Chinese Pressure
USA
(Dean Jackson – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Will there be blood? This is the question on observers’ minds as the United States faces the delicate period after a presidential election — the first since the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. This time, security officials are preparing for the risk of violence on the day Congress certifies the election — but there remains a serious risk of violence at some other time, in some other place. And social media companies, having failed to learn the lessons of January 6, may once again facilitate it. – As the Post-Election Looms, the Risk of Social Media-Facilitated Violence Has Grown – Centre for International Governance Innovation
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Whoever is elected US commander-in-chief this week will have a daunting inbox. However, none of the challenges will be of greater significance than deciding what to do about what former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, in a new essay in Foreign Affairs, calls the “Axis of Losers.” – This should be atop the next US president’s reading list – Atlantic Council
(Richard Verma – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) The United States faces a pivotal juncture globally, a moment President Biden often refers to as an inflection point. The international landscape is complex and often dangerous. We face a dizzying array of traditional challenges from state and non-state actors, along with emergent transnational threats like climate change, pandemics, and the use of advanced technologies to surveil, steal, and misinform. The global post-World War II architecture to maintain peace is under great strain, as evidenced by Russia’s unlawful assault on Ukraine, and as more nations compete for more power and a seat at the global high table. – Increasing American Diplomatic Power | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
