From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Crisis Group) Enrica Picco, Rinaldo Depagne et Catherine-Lune Grayson, responsable de la section des politiques humanitaires au CICR, en charge du travail de recherche et d’influence de l’organisation sur le changement climatique, parlent des conséquences des inondations et de la relation entre le changement climatique et les conflits armés. – Inondations en Afrique : le changement climatique est-il un facteur de conflit ? | Crisis Group
Bangladesh
(Pranab Kumar Panday, Linda Chelan Li – East Asia Forum) Following Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in mid-2024, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, faces the daunting task of stabilising a politically divided and economically strained country. International institutions, including the UN, IMF and World Bank, play a critical role in this transitional period, providing financial support and governance frameworks. Yet, balancing foreign assistance with national sovereignty is delicate. Bangladesh must navigate the pressures of external aid while managing domestic political divides, rising inflation and the need for sustainable, inclusive growth. – Bangladesh’s balancing act | East Asia Forum
China
(Erik Green, Meia Nouwens, Veerle Nouwens – IISS) China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Boao Forum for Asia in April 2022. It was one of Three Major Initiatives (三大倡议) announced between 2021 and 2023 – the others being the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). The GSI also enveloped the aims of the Global Data Security Initiative (GDSI) that was announced in 2020. Together these initiatives form part of China’s proposal for a reformed world order and have since been incorporated into its vision for a Community of Common Destiny for Mankind (人类命运共同体). This represents China’s proposed alternative to the existing world order, which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claims has failed to solve global challenges and endangered world peace. China’s global vision is deliberately defined along its critique of the United States’ hegemonism and unilateralism. – The Global Security Initiative: China’s International Policing Activities
China – Taiwan
(Naiyu Kuo, Dan Spinelli, Jennifer Staats – United States Institute of Peace) In his first National Day speech as Taiwan’s president, William Lai Ching-te called for regional peace while reaffirming that China and Taiwan “are not subordinate to each other.” Though Lai’s October 10 address was more restrained than past remarks, it was attacked by China’s state media as “highly provocative.” Days later, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) encircled Taiwan with record numbers of military aircraft and warships during a series of military “drills.”. This follows a pattern from Beijing since Lai took office. In late June, China released a set of judicial guidelines to prosecute advocates of Taiwan independence, saying they could face the death penalty in extreme cases. By September, more than 2,000 PLA aircraft had been recorded entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone in 2024, the highest annual number of incursions to date. Taiwan’s Digital Affairs Ministry reported over 90,000 cyberattack attempts targeting government infrastructure in August alone. From February to September, China’s Coast Guard vessels entered restricted waters near Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen Islands at least 40 times. – China Responds to Taiwan’s Plea for Cross-Strait Peace with Military Pressure | United States Institute of Peace
Europe
(Tim Lawrenson, Ester Sabatino – IISS) Since February 2022, strengthening the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) has been a major priority of the European Union. This report assesses the European Defence Fund (EDF) and its impact on cooperation on capability development. It further investigates the EDF’s effect on cooperation with true third-country entities, explores the key regulatory requirements for their involvement and evaluates the EDF vis-a-vis the strengthening of the EDTIB. – The Impact of the European Defence Fund on Cooperation with Third-country Entities
(Nevada Joan Lee – Stimson Center) As geopolitical tensions rise and the American commitment to European security wavers, the EU is taking new steps to bolster European defense. The most recent initiatives — aimed at strengthening cooperation, building the European defense industry, and eventually reducing reliance on the United States — are ambitious and face many barriers. Nonetheless, many of these new defense proposals have exceeded expectations given European states’ recent lackluster defense funding and the EU’s historical reluctance to becoming a defense actor. Whether these initiatives succeed hinges in part on the United States’ response and Washington’s willingness to support its European allies in their pursuit of self-reliance. – EU Defense: This Time Might Be Different • Stimson Center
India – Israel
(Amit Bedi – Centre for Air Power Studies) India and Israel share similar challenges, although they are different in context. Both are surrounded by hostile adversaries, and affected by terrorism which is one of the prime threats that the world faces today. In a perfect world, addressing terrorism requires global consensus, and the issue of terrorism can only be solved if all nations agree that a terrorist in one country is considered a terrorist by all countries. However, the world today is plunged into chaos and uncertainty, and every nation prioritises its own national interest when dealing with any situation, particularly when forming its national security strategy and doctrine. Notwithstanding the above, there are many areas where all countries can collaborate, share knowledge, and take appropriate actions. – Evolving Dynamics in West Asia: Strategic Insights for India and Israel – CAPS India
Indonesia
(Evan A. Laksmana – IISS) Indonesia’s foreign policy may soon get its first reset in a decade. Upon assuming the presidency on 20 October, retired general Prabowo Subianto appointed Sugiono, a long-time member of Prabowo’s Gerindra Party, as foreign minister along with three deputy foreign ministers, a first in Indonesian politics. It remains unclear exactly how the three deputies – two senior diplomats and a political party chief – will manage the foreign ministry’s diverse portfolio between themselves. – Indonesia’s reference-point diplomacy decade under Jokowi
Iran
(Jonathan Masters, Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) Iran’s nuclear program and missile arsenal have garnered increased international scrutiny amid its flaring conflict with Israel. – What Are Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities? | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran – USA
(Emirates Policy Center) Iran faces challenges in unofficial communication with the American administration. However, recent diplomatic activities on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meetings in New York indicate Tehran’s intent to establish channels of engagement with Washington. The government of Masoud Pezeshkian aims to use the next three months to develop an “action plan” or at least an “action platform” to build upon if Democrats win the US presidential election, or to counter Washington’s potential escalation if Trump is re-elected. The anticipated dialogue between Tehran and Washington is unlikely to focus solely on the nuclear issue, as Iranians prefer. Instead, it will encompass other matters, including Iran’s regional influence, the scope of Iran-Russia cooperation and Tehran’s missile and drone programs. – Emirates Policy Center | Iran and the US: The Core Deadlock in Ongoing Struggles
Japan
(Gunther Schnabl – East Asia Forum) After Japan’s bubble economy burst in the late 1980s and interest rates were subsequently slashed, carry trades and overseas investment boomed. As the Bank of Japan starts to raise Japan’s long-suppressed interest rates to contain inflation, a huge amount of foreign currency-denominated assets has created a huge risk for Japan — for financiers, pension funds and even everyday citizens’ savings. Pegging the yen to the dollar offers one potential solution. – Exchange rate uncertainty endangers Japan’s economic stability | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(Albert Wolf – RUSI) International politics is the art of the possible. Israel cannot reach the war aims it has set out. It can only win if it narrows its aims, matching ends with means. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has plainly spelled out what Israel wants to achieve: recover the hostages, secure the borders with Gaza, and destroy Hamas. A fourth aim has been added: Israelis forced to evacuate their homes in the north by Hezbollah’s bombing have to be able to return. – Israel is Losing, but Netanyahu Won’t Back Down on His War Aims | Royal United Services Institute
(Crisis Group) Tahani Mustafa and Rob Bletcher speak about Israel’s intensified offensive in Northern Gaza, dire humanitarian conditions there, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and a year of war in Gaza. – The “Generals’ Plan”, Sinwar’s Death and a Year in Gaza | Crisis Group
(Devorah Margolin, Neomi Neumann – The Washington Institute) Since Israeli forces began their campaign against Hamas last year, most of the group’s military capabilities have been damaged or completely destroyed. Yet despite the most intensive fighting in Gaza ending several months ago, the war is not over, and Hamas has not surrendered yet. While Israel continues to focus on maintaining a buffer zone and carrying out raids in order to prevent Hamas from rehabilitating militarily, it has not directed enough attention toward the movement’s shadow governance. – Countering Hamas’s Shadow Governance in Gaza | The Washington Institute
Russia – North Korea
(François Diaz-Maurin – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed Wednesday that North Korean troops were in Russia conducting military exercises, following a claim last week by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that his government had received intelligence information that 10,000 North Korean soldiers were being prepared to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. Zelensky did not provide details during his visit to NATO headquarters to discuss his “victory plan” to end the war with Russia. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell would not confirm the claim either, saying only that the United States and its allies were “alarmed” by North Korea’s increasing military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. But details soon emerged of North Korean troops being spotted in Russia. – North Korea sent troops to Russia. The reason(s) are “left to be seen” – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
(Liana Fix, Benjamin Harris – Council on Foreign Relations) The deployment of North Korean troops to aid Russia marks an ominous new level of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. The alliance could further escalate and globalize the conflict. – North Korean Troops in Russia: A Dangerous New Phase in the Ukraine War | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Crisis Group) Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a war of exhaustion. In Kyiv, talk has turned to some form of ceasefire, though not one on Moscow’s terms. The key is to forge a path toward a truce that can last and lay groundwork for a more, rather than less, secure Europe. – Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine | Crisis Group
(Stephen J. Cimbala, Lawrence J. Korb – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Discussions of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia have become more frequent in recent months. One such discussion occurred in September during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest visit to Washington, when some government officials and analysts emphasized the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia. The possibility of nuclear war growing out of this conflict is a serious concern. But an all-out nuclear war is not necessarily the only, or most likely, means by which this war could expand and escalate up to nuclear use. The controversy surrounding Ukrainian demands for permission to use NATO long-range missiles for attacks deeper into Russia poses a major risk of escalation. Likewise, changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine as the war continues—and its interpretation by Western allies—could make a nuclear first use more likely. Finally, non-nuclear forms of expansion of the war—whether they have already occurred or not—could pose significant challenges in moving toward de-escalation and an eventual peace agreement. As the war drags on and pivots to a war of attrition, non-nuclear forms of expansion—be they horizontal, informational, technological, or moral—increase the likelihood of inadvertent use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. – How the fog of war in Ukraine increases the risk of escalation – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Sahel
(Matthew Edds-Reitman, Rachel Yeboah Boakye – United States Institute of Peace) Sahel violence is spilling over into coastal West Africa, destabilizing a strategically important region. The imminent Sahel Alliance-ECOWAS divide could exacerbate the worsening situation. The best way to protect West Africa’s coastal states is to buttress their democracy and resilience. – Sahel Coup Regime’s Split from ECOWAS Risks Instability in Coastal West Africa | United States Institute of Peace
South Korea
(Hee Sun Kim – East Asia Forum) The National Samsung Electronics Union began a strike on 10 July 2024, demanding improved pay and working conditions, but made little headway due to the distinct position Samsung holds in South Korea, contributing significantly to its GDP and having a history of discouraging union activities. Despite Samsung’s move towards automatisation and maintaining its power, changes are surfacing within the country’s workforce with younger generations showing less long-term loyalty to companies. This trend reflects an increasing awareness of corporate social responsibility and considering international employment, indicating that an adjustment in the company-union relationship may be advantageous in the future. – Samsung Electronics Union strikes a chord with South Korean society | East Asia Forum
USA – Middle East
(Brian Katulis, Athena Masthoff – Middle East Institute) The final weeks of America’s 2024 presidential campaign have been mostly focused on issues closer to home, with the two candidates emphasizing social and economic concerns rather than foreign policy. Television ads and candidate appearances in swing states, states pivotal for winning the essential 270 votes in America’s electoral college system, have centered on America’s democracy, immigration, abortion, and inflation. It may seem surprising that the Middle East is not playing a bigger role in America’s main political choices this election given the historic magnitude of events unfolding in the region at this particular time. The Middle East has witnessed a series of surprises — and not just in October — over the past few months. – Harris vs. Trump on the War and Crisis in the Middle East | Middle East Institute