Geostrategic magazine (25 October 2024)

From global think tanks

The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye

China

(Noah Robertson – Defense News) China is accelerating its buildup of nuclear weapons, forcing the U.S. to more than double earlier estimates of its pace, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm wrote in a report this week. The Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that Beijing had around 200 warheads in 2020 and would reach at least twice that by the end of the decade. Now, the DIA said, China has already reached 500 such weapons and will have more than 1,000 by 2030 — most of which will be able to reach the U.S. – China leading ‘rapid expansion’ of nuclear arsenal, Pentagon says

China – South Asia

(DCS Mayal – Observer Research Foundation) The rapidly changing battlefield—framed by emerging transnational threats and the rising influence of public opinion—has transformed military diplomacy; today the focus is shifting from traditional combat to joint multinational operations and non-combat activities. Since the early 21st century, China has modernised its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and expanded military diplomacy to protect the country’s interests. Using civil-military fusion and integrating various initiatives, China enhances intelligence gathering, capability benchmarking, and interoperability. In South Asia, China employs military diplomacy to counterbalance India, challenging Indian dominance through seemingly benign initiatives. This brief examines China’s strategic use of military diplomacy in South Asia. – Decoding Chinese Military Diplomacy in South Asia

Climate Action, Energy Transition, Sustainable Development, and Human Security 

(Dan Marks, Cinzia Bianco, Carlos Solar – RUSI) This paper examines whether the UK could or should do more to ensure the security of critical hydrogen supply chains by examining the activities of peer countries in Africa, the GCC states and Latin America. – International Engagements on Low-Carbon Hydrogen | Royal United Services Institute

(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) Between 17 and 20 percent of the Amazon, the world’s largest rain forest, has been destroyed over the past fifty years. The majority of deforestation has occurred in Brazil, followed by Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru. The widespread loss of forest jeopardizes the Amazon’s ability to mitigate climate change. It also threatens the rain forest’s rich biodiversity and the lives of tens of millions of people who rely on the land to survive. Amid growing international concern, some of the region’s governments have taken steps to expand forest protections, while others have encouraged economic development. – Can Amazon Countries Save the Rain Forest? | Council on Foreign Relations

Georgia

(Laurențiu Pleșca, Constance Victor – German Marshall Fund) Georgia is facing an unprecedented challenge which could alter the country’s EU trajectory. The country’s European future is under threat from the current government, led by the Georgian Dream party, which manipulates public opinion with pro-Russian narratives in hopes of sabotaging Georgia’s European aspirations. In the process, it purposefully turns a blind-eye to the international financial support provided by the United States and the European Union over the past three decades. – Poland Flexes Its Muscles: Partnering with South Korea for Europe’s Eastern Defense | German Marshall Fund of the United States

Georgia – Moldova – Europe

(Clara Volintiru – German Marshall Fund) As October comes to an end, both the people of Moldova and Georgia are facing up to their choice for a pro-European future. Both countries face critical elections that will be decided upon the fundamental cleavage line of pro-Western sentiment. Moldova held the first round of presidential elections on October 20, alongside an EU Referendum that barely passed, while Georgia will hold parliamentary elections on October 26. It is a very high stakes gamble that pro-Western political elites are making in support of European accession, as Russian interference ironically amplify fears of Russian aggression and economic precarity. – Europe’s Periphery is Testing its EU Aspirations | German Marshall Fund of the United States

Germany – India

(Tobias Scholz – Observer Research Foundation) The first-ever public strategic document by Germany to describe foreign policy priorities towards India can be read as a recognition of India’s relevance in balancing China and the complexities of dealing with a strategically autonomous India – Berlin’s new focus on India

Global Order

(Paul Samson, S. Yash Kalash, Nikolina Zivkovic, Tracey Forrest, Bessma Momani – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The global order is under strain, propelled by the complex interplay of numerous trends and impacts. Converging factors are redefining the contours of the international system, necessitating significant adaptation by states. While the forces for change are evident, the trajectory of the new order remains highly uncertain. This CIGI special report seeks to fill a gap between the analysis of current trends and mapping of potential futures by outlining five possible scenarios for an evolving global order. These five scenarios represent a spectrum from the most modest plausible change (reform of the current system) to the most radical (transformation of the whole system due to a global shock). It is hoped that the report’s analysis will stimulate critical thinking and discussion and will help equip policy makers with the foresight necessary to navigate an uncertain future. – Scenarios of Evolving Global Order – Centre for International Governance Innovation

India

(Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) With market confidence in China sapping on account of Xi’s state-driven approach and the West changing its approach to China, India must position itself as an alternative. – In the US Inc-China break-up lies a silver lining for India

(Saswat Bandyopadhyay, Gargi Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) For Indian cities to advance their adaptation, mitigation, and resilience agenda, national frameworks are required to prioritise long-term goals in a city infrastructure investment pipeline of projects. – A city infrastructure investment pipeline for climate-resilient urban development

India – Argentina

(Hari Seshasayee – Observer Research Foundation) The India-Argentina relationship is unencumbered by ideology, politics, or any conflicts of interest. As a result, business takes precedence. – India-Argentina: An example in economic diplomacy

India – Southeast Asia

(S. Yash Kalash – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The current dispute between India and Canada comes at a particularly inopportune moment for both; as global uncertainties intensify, the necessity for strong alliances becomes paramount. In an era when India’s influence is expanding and geopolitical instability demands friends rather than foes, fostering constructive relationships is more crucial than ever. Underscoring this strategic pivot, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent participation in the East Asia Summit and bilateral engagements with Singapore, Brunei and Laos highlight the country’s deepening ties with Southeast Asia, signalling a decisive move to strengthen regional bonds and enhance its global standing. – India’s Rise on the Global Chessboard Makes It Pivotal to Indo-Pacific Security – Centre for International Governance Innovation

Iran 

(Alan Eyre – Middle East Institute) Last month marked the second anniversary of the death of 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini and the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement born of her murder. The authorities’ subsequent brutal crackdown on the protesters is but one flagrant example of the government’s appalling human rights record. The regime’s disdain for international human rights norms is not the recent result of Iran’s transition from Islamic theocracy to nationalistic military-security state. Rather, it has been a feature of the regime from the beginning, as shown by (inter alia) the 1988 mass executions of Iranian prisoners. – What the US can do about human rights in Iran | Middle East Institute

Poland – South Korea

(Oscar Luigi Guccione, Aina Turillazzi – German Marshall Fund) Poland’s role in enhancing NATO’s eastern defense in response to the security challenges posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is pivotal. Through military modernization and strategic partnerships with allies such as South Korea, Poland aims to reinforce its capabilities and contribute to a unified European security framework. – Poland Flexes Its Muscles: Partnering with South Korea for Europe’s Eastern Defense | German Marshall Fund of the United States

Russia

(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Recent reports show that Russia is increasingly drawing upon the older generation to fill its ranks on the frontlines of Ukraine, a trend also present among Cossack volunteers on the battlefield. Older Cossacks are not only involved in combat but are also heavily involved in “humanitarian” support for those on the frontline and recruiting others to join the war effort. Russia’s use of older citizens on the frontlines and the Cossack society’s encouragement of all who are able to serve their fatherland demonstrates how desperate Moscow is for personnel to fill its meatgrinder of a war. – Aged Cossacks Bolster Russia’s War Effort in Ukraine – Jamestown

(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted various strategies to fill the ranks of his army to avoid the anger and emigration among Russians that mobilization would provoke, including offering substantial signing bonuses. Continuing to increase bonuses highlights the declining support among Russians for Putin’s war in Ukraine, not only in the cities but in rural areas as well. These increases point to a shift in how the Kremlin is prepared to deal with the population and how the population, in response, is ready to react to Kremlin policies, a shift that is likely to increase the chances of clashes. – Increasing Sign-Up Bonuses for Russian Soldiers Signal Falling Support for Putin’s War – Jamestown

Russia’s War on Ukraine

(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine’s current military strategy, particularly in its use of long-range drones and limited supplies of advanced missiles such as ATACMS and Storm Shadows, faces critical constraints in effectively striking key targets on Russian soil due to their short ranges. To effectively hit critical targets on Russian soil, particularly on key Russian arms manufacturing hubs, Ukraine would require a new class of intermediate-range ballistic missiles with greater range and heavier warheads. Developing this capacity, with the help of international support in missile technology and production capabilities, could significantly alter the trajectory of the conflict by diminishing Russia’s ability to replenish its military arsenal over time. – Ukraine Needs Its Own Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles – Jamestown

USA – Europe

(Kate Stotesbery, Alix Frangeul-Alves – German Marshall Fund) While the US presidential campaign draws global attention, the upcoming congressional elections on November 5 will significantly affect Europeans, too. No matter who enters the White House, the new Congress’ policies will steer US–Europe relations, with ramifications for security alliances and economic and climate policies. – A New Blueprint for US Foreign Policy: The 119th Congress and US-Europe Relations | German Marshall Fund of the United States

USA – India

(Garima Mohan – German Marshall Fund) India’s importance to the United States is an issue that enjoys bipartisan consensus in Washington, one that was forged over the last two decades under Republican- and Democrat-led administrations, including Donald Trump’s and Joe Biden’s. This leaves New Delhi less worried about the US presidential election outcome than European capitals are. Regardless of the winner, India is looking for more continuity than change, particularly on policy toward China and the Indo-Pacific. – A Hope for Continuity | German Marshall Fund of the United States

USA – Middle East

(Omer Taspinar – Emirates Policy Center) Escalating violence in the Middle East has made foreign policy a critical issue this election. Biden’s support for Israel and failure to secure a ceasefire in Gaza have alienated progressive Democrats and weakened Harris’ campaign. The risk of an all-out war could disrupt global oil markets and further damage her standing. Polls show a deeply divided electorate, with Harris potentially losing key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Democrats’ eroding support among Muslim and Arab-Americans, young and while working-class voters adds to her challenges. Trump has used the crisis to frame the Biden administration as weak, highlighting Harris’ perceived lack of leadership. Rising oil prices and fears of further escalation make it harder for her to counter this narrative. Netanyahu’s anticipation of Trump’s return reflects the stakes. If Biden and Harris fail to manage the crisis, Trump’s portrayal of their administration as ineffective could sway undecided voters and boost his chances. – Emirates Policy Center | Middle East Crisis Poses Major Threat to Harris Campaign as Election Nears

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