LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Richard Dion – Brookings) Corridors—regional transportation and transmission networks—represent an immense development opportunity for Africa. Typically driven by mining, corridors can integrate regions, create economic opportunities for peripheral economies, and deliver goods globally. But there are several key issues African governments must closely consider when negotiating corridors with private and state investors.
Negotiating development corridor projects in Africa | Brookings
Australia
1 – (Peter Layton – ASPI The Strategist) Iran knows a thing or two about robust supplies of guided munitions. Australia should learn from it. Under the new National Defence Strategy, Australia now plans to create a domestic industry to make guided weapons and explosive ordnance. The first phase, in 2023–25, involves detailed planning, early funding and a $37.4m contract to begin assembling Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GLMRS) munitions in 2025. The components will be imported from the United States.
Want a robust Australian munitions industry? Study Iran | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
2 – (David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) Australia is losing its ability to manufacture basic materials, with recent plant closures spelling the end to local production of polyethylene and the industrial gas helium, while the future of Australian nickel refining is in doubt.
Australia – China
1 – (Justin Bassi and Andrew Forrest – ASPI The Strategist) At least six Australian parliamentarians from both major parties have been targeted by Chinese state-sponsored hackers from the notorious APT31 group, the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China has announced. The revelation follows announcements by the alliance—an informal, cross-party grouping of parliamentarians from dozens of countries—about a wider Chinese cyber campaign against politicians and public figures in Canada, New Zealand, France, Germany and other European nations.
2 – (Sam Roggeveen – Lowy The Interpreter) The Chinese air force’s dangerous intercept of a Royal Australian Navy helicopter in the Yellow Sea – what the Defence Department statement calls an “unprofessional interaction”, which involved firing flares near the chopper – is the latest in a series of actions by China’s military. It includes the lasing of a RAN ship, the firing of chaff that was ingested into the engine of a RAAF aircraft, and the pulsing of a sonar near an Australian ship when its divers were in the water. The US and Canadian militaries have suffered similar incidents.
Helicopter flare up should highlight China’s base instincts | Lowy Institute
Georgia
(Eto Buziashvili – Atlantic Council) Amid a sea of Georgian and European Union (EU) flags, there’s a palpable sense of leaderless, organic mobilization on the streets of Georgia. For more than two weeks, a growing number of Georgians have been rallying to defend what they view as their “European future.” These peaceful demonstrations were met with severe responses from the government, including the use of pepper spray, tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets. Yet, each day, protesters have returned, now prepared with gas masks and other protective equipment. Some bring food and water. Others carry medical kits to aid the injured. The community spirit shines through.
Middle East
(Marvin Kalb – Brookings) So far, only one Israeli senior officer, Aharon Haliva, the chief of Israeli military intelligence, has resigned, accepting personal responsibility for what he called the “black day” of October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel, brutally killing 1,200 Israelis and seizing 253 hostages. Throughout Israel’s continuing confrontation with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and, most significantly, Iran, no other Israeli officer or official with responsibility for the stunning Israeli security and intelligence failures on October 7 has resigned or been held accountable.
Meeting Israelis’ demand for change and accountability | Brookings
PNG – China
(Oliver Nobetau – Lowy The Interpreter) A report emerged in the Sydney Morning Herald at the weekend that PNG officials made a last-minute decision not to sign a proposed policing agreement with China. This followed lobbying from Australia ahead of a visit by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last month to mark ANZAC Day with a trek on the famous Kokoda trail. But this is unlikely to be the end of speculation about the potential policing agreement with China. As one PNG official was quoted in the newspaper report, “It hasn’t been put to rest; it has been shelved.”
PNG-China: What’s to gain in any policing deal? | Lowy Institute
USA
(Jenny Schuetz, Adie Tomer – Brookings) Summer is just around the corner for much of the U.S. Traditionally, the season between Memorial Day and Labor Day has strong positive associations: vacations from school and work, basking in sunshine at the beach, enjoying hot dogs and beer at baseball games. But climate change is quickly altering how we collectively dream of summer.
Americans should worry more about extreme heat | Brookings
USA – China
(Cynthia Cook, Gregory Sanders, Alexander Holderness, John Schaus, Nicholas Velazquez, Audrey Aldisert , Henry Carroll, and Emily Hardesty – Center for Strategic & International Studies) China’s 40-year economic development has transformed it into one of the world’s largest economies and most powerful countries. Over the past 12 years, China has been increasingly willing to leverage its economic might to pressure countries to act in its interest. The United States and its allies and partners are not prepared to counter China’s economic coercion. This report identifies coercive sanctions the United States and allied policymakers can use to effectively compete with China in the economic domain and deter future economic aggression from Beijing.
Expanding the Tool Kit to Counter China’s Economic Coercion (csis.org)
USA – Japan
1 – (Council on Foreign Relations) The alliance with Japan has been the cornerstone of U.S. security policy in East Asia for decades. Now, Japan’s role in global security is growing as challenges from China and North Korea mount.
The U.S.-Japan Alliance | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
2 – (Shantanu Roy-Chaudhury – Lowy The Interpreter) Japan, the closest US ally in Asia, was in the crosshairs during Donald Trump’s presidency, despite efforts by the late prime minister Shinzo Abe to cultivate a close relationship with the mercurial US leader. Renowned for questioning their relevance and contributions of allies, in 2019 Trump criticised the US-Japan alliance, stating Japan took advantage of the treaty. Trump is making similar claims about alliance partners failing to spend enough on defence in his bid to reclaim the White House. He also previously accused Japan of manipulating its currency for economic advantage.
Japan is insulating itself from America’s turbulent politics | Lowy Institute
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
