LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Meressa Kahsu Dessu – Wilson Center) Amid rampant conflict and crime challenges, the African Union (AU) adopted Agenda 2063 (the Africa We Want) which includes aspirations for a peaceful and secure continent under the Pan-African vision of greater integration and political unity. In pursuit of these aspirations, the AU established programs such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and signed the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons and Goods. Implementing these flagship programs will increase the mobility of people and goods and will likely add another layer of security challenges for the continent. Given the aspirations and existing and emerging instability and threats, African leaders need to rethink the continental security approach and arrangement. Enhanced supranational policing can significantly contribute to preventing and responding to problems as well as aiding in peacebuilding and development.
Why is Strengthening the African Union Police Crucial for Peacebuilding in Africa? | Wilson Center
Arctic
(Lassi Heininen – Geneva Centre for Security Policy) In the 1990s an inspiring sense of a “new North” became apparent in Arcticrelated ideas and innovations that indicated the end of the Cold War period. This included arms control initiatives, cross-border cooperation and sustainability “to decrease military tension and increase political stability”, an emerging environmental awakening among peoples and societies, knowledge-building by indigenous peoples and the scientific community, and new forums for opening up discussions on regional development. The Arctic seemed to be in a state of constant transformation (geo)politically, economically, culturally and environmentally.
(Mathieu Boulegue and Duncan Depledge – RUSI) As uncertainty grows over the future of cooperation in the Arctic, the risk is that creeping alternatives will harden the dividing lines between Russia and the West.
Artificial Intelligence
(Gazmend Huskaj – Geneva Centre for Security Policy) This paper conceptualises the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on disinformation campaigns, contrasting AI-driven operations with traditional human-operated methods. Utilising a Human Intelligence Collector Operations (HUMINT) and Offensive Cyberspace Operations (OCO) framework, the research analyses the advancements in AI technology in terms of speed, efficiency, content generation, and adaptability. The findings reveal that AI-driven operations, particularly those with billions of tokens, significantly outperform human-operated disinformation campaigns in speed and efficiency, demonstrating an ability to process vast datasets and complex scenarios almost instantaneously.
GCSP Publication | Future Elections and AI-Driven Disinformation
(Rémi Bourgeot – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) L’ultraconcentration dans la conception et la production de semi-conducteurs pour l’IA, autour de Nvidia et TSMC, attise la convoitise des géants numériques, ultradépendants à cet égard. Pour autant, le rattrapage s’annonce difficile, malgré la mobilisation d’acteurs étatiques.
Les semi-conducteurs sont le talon d’Achille des géants de l’IA | IRIS (iris-france.org)
China
(ThinkChina) In response to criticism from the industry and scholars alike, China is set to loosen restrictions with regard to human genetic resources. How much of an impact would this have on the advancement of research in the biomedical field?
China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap (thinkchina.sg)
(Sunny Cheung – The Jamestown Foundation) OpenHarmony, an open-source version of Huawei’s HarmonyOS, is widely used in critical infrastructure (such as the energy grid and ports), public security, and the military in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Some of these are projects that support the PRC’s military-civil fusion development strategy. OpenHarmony is perceived as a key contributor to accomplishing the PRC’s goals of reducing dependence on foreign technologies and becoming a strong open-source nation. The PRC government is cautious about potential cybersecurity issues related to the use of open-source technologies, especially in “AI of Things” applications, which include networked systems of multiple devices in critical domains. They are therefore implementing measures to manage open-source software vulnerabilities, ensuring secure integration into critical infrastructure. The PRC is positioning itself as an early innovator in the regulation of open-source software. Governmental bodies such as the Administration of States Secret Protection (NASSP; 国家保密局) and government-affiliated bodies such as the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT; 中国信息通信研究院) are spearheading national-level initiatives.
Open-Source Technology and PRC National Strategy: Part II – Jamestown
(James Leibold – The Jamestown Foundation) Another cultural revolution is in full swing in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is not the purported class revolution Mao advocated in the past, but rather a wave of Han cultural and racial nationalism. Xi’s new approach to ethnic minority policy repudiates the Party’s past promise to allow minority nationalities to exercise political and cultural autonomy, becoming “masters of their own house.”. Following more than ten years of incremental change, a new textbook from scholar-officials articulates the discourse, ideology, and policies associated with a new Han-centric narrative of China’s past and future. In this conception, the sovereignties and homelands of the Tibetan, Uyghur, Mongol, and other indigenous minorities are erased and replaced with a seamless teleology of the Han colonial and racial becoming.
New Textbook Reveals Xi Jinping’s Doctrine of Han-centric Nation-Building – Jamestown
(Willy Wo-Lap Lam – The Jamestown Foundation) Recent behavior by General Secretary Xi Jinping suggests a contradiction in his approach to leadership. While he has sacked protégés, suggesting a reckoning with past personnel decisions, he continues to prioritize personal connections and loyalty over competence. This centralization of power is exemplified by the promotion of his wife, Peng Liyuan, to a senior position in the CMC’s opaque Cadre Assessment Committee. The rise of the Fujian Faction in recent years, with Cai Qi as the main beneficiary, illustrates the shifting factional landscape. Cai, a close associate of Xi, has gained significant control over state security and party building. The “Xi Family Army,” which includes loyal acolytes at the top of the military, is experiencing cracks. Notable figures like Lieutenant General Zhong Shaojun have been removed quietly from their positions, alongside more high-profile sackings of protégés.
Peng’s increasing public profile and potential elevation within the military hierarchy has invites comparisons to Mao Zedong’s reliance on his fourth wife, Jiang Qing, during the Cultural Revolution.
Peng Liyuan Rises Up the Ranks: Implications for Xi’s Despotic Rule – Jamestown
China – ASEAN
(Anshika Singh – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Recent high-level diplomatic visits between China and three ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia—and discussions on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects at these meetings indicate that the BRI will continue to play an important role towards regional infrastructure development. The ASEAN region remains a source of minerals critical to China’s sustained economic growth. Geo-political and geo-economic factors are propelling Beijing to renew its investment commitments in the ASEAN region and ensure the long-term viability of the BRI.
China – European Union
(John S. Van Oudenaren – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) is looking to promote an “equal and orderly multipolar world.” Part of this entails encouraging strategic autonomy for European nations and the creation of a “non-American West” which is more amenable to PRC interests. High-level diplomatic engagements with European leaders emphasize cooperation on global challenges and multilateralism, contrasting with the PRC’s portrayal of the United States as an obstacle to global stability. In France last week, Xi appealed to French pride in their civilization and strategic autonomy as the two countries celebrated 60 years of diplomatic ties. French political elites appear receptive to this messaging, and President Macron in particular has frequently sought to engage with the PRC. Beijing also desires to reset strained relations one of its largest trading partners—the European Union—through meetings with the bloc’s various heads of state, especially that of Germany and France. This shift is driven by the need to sustain access to critical markets and technologies amid perceived US-led efforts to suppress the PRC’s development. European leaders, including Scholz and Macron, have shown a willingness to engage with Beijing, in part to seek assistance in ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This plays to the PRC’s increasing desire to be seen as a mediator in global conflicts, but given the current Sino–Russian relationship, such an approach is likely misguided.
Multipolar Mirage: The PRC’s Pivot to Europe – Jamestown
China – Russia
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) Across 12 communiques, meeting readouts, and official phone calls between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin since February 2022, the salience of language on Ukraine has reduced, but the substance has hardened. The latest communique includes a statement that “the root causes must be eliminated” and a reference to the “indivisibility of security.”. Other linguistic changes include the disappearance of the phrases “changes unseen in a century” and “a new type of international relations” this year, which occurred frequently in last year’s messaging. The latest communique appears to be the first time that Russia has explicitly endorsed the PRC’s desire for unification with Taiwan—yet another instance of the two states growing bolder in their international claims.
Shifting Discourse Between Xi and Putin On Ukraine – Jamestown
(Ryan Tully – RealClearDefense) The growing so-called “no-limits” or now “new era” partnership between Russia and China isn’t a new phenomenon, but it is one that has significantly metastasized since Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Russians and Chinese now commonly cooperate on space, missile defense, and imagery and intelligence sharing. What was until recently a partnership that existed between two leaders—largely fortified by their personalities alone—now permeates down into the ranks of the security services through cooperation on joint training, exercises, technical exchanges, sanctions evasion, and on Ukraine. There was new life breathed into that relationship last week when Russian president Vladimir Putin made his first “post re-election” trip abroad to China to bend a knee to and embrace Chinese premier Xi Jinping.
To Arrest China’s Nuclear Build-Up, Target Russia | RealClearDefense
(Janis Kluge – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed the terms of Russia-China economic relations. Economic cooperation with China has become vital for the Russian economy. Trade turnover between Russia and China has increased significantly since February 2022. However, Chinese companies remain hesitant about investing in Russia. Energy cooperation remains the backbone of Sino-Russian cooperation, but the expansion of Russian exports is hindered by infrastructure limitations. Russian arms exports have declined in recent years. Meanwhile, China exports large quantities of dual-use goods to Russia, which are urgently needed by the Russian military industry. Sino-Russian cooperation in the digital economy has been hit hard by Western sanctions. China’s digital giants cancelled several projects in Russia due to fears of secondary U.S. sanctions. Russia’s trade with China is mainly conducted in Chinese yuan. However, Russia continues to rely on the U.S. dollar for trade with the rest of the world.
Russia-China Economic Relations – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
China – USA – Middle East
(Mohammed Soliman – Middle East Institute) The US is changing its approach to dealing with China’s technology statecraft in the Middle East. The recent Microsoft-G42 deal offers a new model for technology competition that helps to secure American technologies while accommodating its partners’ aspirations.
China, the US, and the battle for Middle Eastern technology | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Jose Gabriel Silan, Shengnian Xu and Marlon Joseph Apanada – World Resources Institute) Every autumn morning at an aquaculture site near the mouth of the Yellow River in China’s Dongying City, Shandong Province, farmers begin packaging shrimp for their customers. Their harvest is increasingly more bountiful thanks to an innovative way of farming that integrates renewable energy into agriculture. Here, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels were installed several meters above the water, helping to generate an annual 260 gigawatts-hours of energy — enough to power 113,000 households in China. Since its completion and grid connection in 2021, the farmers have also gained many benefits. Beyond providing clean energy to the fishery, the solar panels keep water temperatures consistently 2 to 3 degrees C (3.6 to 5.4 degrees F) cooler than outdoor ponds without panels, boosting shrimp and sea cucumber yields by 50%. The solar power company that installed the panels leases the space, helping to reduce farming costs while also paying for improvements and modernization to aquaculture site, such as better pond embankments and irrigation systems. These developments are crucial for the future growth of the fishery industry in Shandong Province. In 2019, the total economic output of the fishery sector of Shandong Province reached $62.3 billion, representing 15.6% of China’s total fishery output.
Agrivoltaics Boosts Food and Energy Production in Asia | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Kimberley Botwright, Guillaume Dabré – World Economic Forum) The soaring demand for critical raw materials, driven by the clean energy transition, presents significant opportunities for green industrialization, especially in developing countries. Many countries are engaging in state-to-state partnerships to bridge the potential supply-demand gap in critical raw materials but these arrangements must be structured to attract investments while integrating sustainability standards. Several thought leaders provide their perspectives on trade, critical minerals and sustainability, as a new white paper from the World Economic Forum unpacks how trade deals can ensure developing countries benefit from demand for their critical material resources.
Translating critical raw materials demand into development | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Cyberspace
(Chatham House) Cybersecurity is not only concerned with the essential work of protecting information and communications technologies. It is also about keeping all users safe in cyberspace from cybercrimes, data and privacy violations, harmful and abusive content, and the risks and harms that have emerged and multiplied as the world has digitally transformed.
European Union
(Zsuzsanna Végh – GMF) The ousting of AfD representatives from the European Parliament’s Identity and Democracy group reflects support for Marine Le Pen’s moderation strategy and may hold new prospects for cooperation among far-right parties.
(Florent Parmentier, Adam Hsakou – GMF) Dormant for the past decade, EU enlargement has regained strategic importance since Russia invaded Ukraine.
(Clingendael) After the European Council meeting in March 2024, EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated that Europe had reached the Demosthenes moment by putting defence at the centre of EU policies. He referred to a set of actions undertaken by the EU, including the beefing up of military assistance to Ukraine, increasing defence budgets, boosting the defence industry and launching new missions under the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The latter is receiving less attention in the media and in political debates, but EU missions are nonetheless more relevant than ever. Today, the largest military EU mission is taking place in Europe: the military training of Ukrainian military personnel in Germany, Poland and other member states. In the Middle East, the EU has launched Operation Aspides for protecting merchant ships against drone and missile attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
European defence: The future of EU missions | Clingendael
France – Germany
(Jeanette SÜẞ, interviewed by Sophia Khatsenkova on EuroNews – French Institute of International Relations) French President Emmanuel Macron will visit his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Berlin on Sunday in what is seen as the highest level of diplomatic courtesy gestures.
(Sven Arnold, Claudia Major – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine since 24 February 2022 has not shaken France’s security policy as fundamentally as it has Germany’s. France sees its previous goals confirmed, particularly in terms of strengthening Europe’s strategic sovereignty. Nevertheless, it has been adapting in many areas in order to continue pursuing its ambitions under changed external conditions. This led to a continuity in security policy objectives – with notable adjustments in the means and direction. These include France’s now active support for the enlargement of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as its increased commitment within NATO. This has also partly dispelled the irritation among European partners that President Emmanuel Macron caused in 2022 with his statements about the need to reach out to Russia. However, substantial differences between Germany and France remain and have intensified in some cases, making bilateral cooperation more complicated.
France’s Disruptive Zeitenwende – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
Human Trafficking
(Paul Costello, Janina Stürner-Siovitz – GMF) Cities worldwide are nodes for networks of human trafficking, which the UN defines as “the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harboring or receipt of people through force, fraud or deception, with the aim of exploiting them for profit”. The problem is widespread. Data from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime documents more than 115,000 human trafficking cases in Europe and the Americas in 2021.
Cities and Human Trafficking | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
India
(Think China) As the Indian general election progresses, Asia Society Policy Institute assistant director Rishi Gupta examines the three major political parties’ foreign policies, in particular their positions towards India’s neighbourhood, the US and China.
BJP’s potential third term would fuel India’s global ambitions (thinkchina.sg)
(ThinkChina) India’s economy is receiving a vote of confidence in various global forecasts amid the general election season. However, says ISAS academic Amitendu Palit, robust prospects for the Indian economy will very much depend on how some risks to the forecasts play out.
Why the Indian economy is hitting a sweet spot (thinkchina.sg)
India – China
(Bipandeep Sharma – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The India–Russia bilateral partnership can be propelled further by exploiting opportunities for cooperation in Russia’s Far East in energy, ship-building, aviation, tourism among other sectors. India will continue to pursue its relations with Russia from its strategic and national security perspective rather than from Western/European geopolitical frameworks and narratives.
Indonesia
(Alda Anindea – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique) Indonesia has historically been a strong supporter of nuclear disarmament. Nuclear weapons are seen as a threat to international peace and security, which explains Indonesia’s continuous effort to promote nuclear disarmament in multilateral fora, encouraging the use of nuclear technology only for peaceful purposes. A recent reaffirmation of this position has been the ratification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which has been approved by the House of Representatives of Indonesia on 21 November 2023.
Indo – Pacific
(Patrick Tucker – Defense One) The Pentagon’s flagship program to quickly produce large numbers of low-cost, highly autonomous drones is “producing real results,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said in a statement Thursday, noting that “the delivery of Replicator systems to the warfighter began earlier this month.”. The aim of the Replicator program, announced in August 2023, is to deliver tens of thousands of low-cost land, air, and sea drones to operators in the Pacific by the end of 2025.
First Replicator drones already in Indo-Pacific, DOD says – Defense One
Iran
(Haleh Esfandiari – Wilson Center) Following the death of Iran’s President Raisi, Mohammad Mokhber was named interim president, with elections for a permanent replacement set for June 28. Mokhber, a hardliner with extensive government experience, may run for president. The supreme leader’s influence remains decisive.
Iran’s New Interim President | Wilson Center
(Thierry Coville – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Les disparitions du président et du ministre des Affaires étrangères iranien le 19 mai 2024 dans un accident d’hélicoptère sont venues secouer le pays. Dans un contexte de déstabilisation régionale et de regains de tensions notamment avec Israël, l’élection d’un nouveau président s’impose et le décès d’Ebrahim Raïssi vient également questionner les futures perspectives du Guide suprême Ali Khameini pour le pays. Quelles réactions le décès du président a-t-il suscité au sein de la population iranienne ? À l’horizon des élections présidentielles qui se tiendront le 28 juin prochain, quelles sont les perspectives politiques et géopolitiques pour l’Iran ?
(Sima Shine, Raz Zimmt – INSS) Recently, there have been growing signs that Iran’s leadership has been rethinking its progress toward a nuclear breakout. What is Iran’s current nuclear status? Why do some in Tehran think it is time to move toward a bomb—and is it still possible to stop the hourglass?
The Iranian Nuclear Strategy—Is It About to Change? | INSS
Iraq
(Clingendael) Iraqi political elites exhibited a variety of responses to the 2019 October protests, the largest demonstrations in post-2003 Iraq. Muqtada al-Sadr, a cleric-turned politician and leader of the Sadrist movement, vacillated between attempting to co-opt and repressing the protests. Other Shi’a political elites portrayed the predominantly Shi’a protestors as foreign agents and encouraged violent repression. Yet others who urged reform and response went largely unheard. Iraq’s political system emerged largely unscathed from the protests, even though the threat of recurrence inspired the new government to undertake limited service-oriented reforms. However, traditional political elites continue to view reformists, including the politicians that emerged from the protest movement, as illegitimate usurpers of governing power they feel rightly belongs to them.
A scramble for legitimacy: Iraq’s political elites since the October 2019 protests | Clingendael
Libya
(Malak Altaeb – Middle East Institute) After initially tracking through Greece and parts of Turkey and Bulgaria, Storm Daniel struck Libya on Sept. 10, 2023. The northeastern coast of the country was the hardest hit by the storm, especially the city of Derna, where the devastation was greatest. The city is located in a valley below two upstream dams (Abu Mansour and al-Bilad) intended to be used as sources of water supply and flood control.
Mexico
(Lila Abed – Wilson Center) On June 2, an estimated 99 million Mexican citizens will turn out at the polls to elect the first female president, 128 senators, 500 congressional representatives, and more than 20,000 local government officials. The 2024 electoral cycle will be the largest in its history and with elections coinciding between Mexico and the U.S. every twelve years, the winners will shape the future of Mexico’s domestic and foreign policy.
Mexico’s Presidency Depends on the Congressional Race | Wilson Center
Russia
(Hunter Stoll – RAND Corporation) Russian President Vladimir Putin has not shied away from expressing frustration with the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Over the nearly two-and-a-half years of the conflict, he has removed multiple senior military commanders and officials, generally due to dissatisfaction with their performance.
Putin’s Shake-Up of Russian Military Leadership | RAND
Taiwan
(ThinkChina) Zaobao correspondent Woon Wei Jong rounds up various reactions to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration speech, observing that the strong tone and emphasis on the pro-unification/pro-independence divide are calculated moves on the part of the ruling party.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te wagers that China will not attack Taiwan? (thinkchina.sg)
(Center for Strategic and International Studies) On May 23, 2024, China commenced large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan, called “Joint Sword-2024A.” The drills came just three days after Taiwan’s new president William Lai gave his inauguration speech. Chinese officials stated that the drills are intended to “serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces.” This activity by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was accompanied by what China called “comprehensive law enforcement operations” involving China’s coast guard around two of Taiwan’s offshore islands.
(Roy Ben Tzur – INSS) On May 20, the inauguration ceremony of Taiwan’s incoming president, William Lai Ching-te, was held after he won 40% of the votes in the January presidential election. In those elections, the president’s ruling party, the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates separation from the People’s Republic of China), lost its majority in parliament, with the KMT (Kuomintang, which advocates closer ties with China) becoming the largest party in the House of Representatives. As a result, the president is expected to encounter challenges in promoting his policies.
New President, Old Challenges: What Awaits Taiwan’s New Leader? | INSS
Turkey – Greece
(Dimitris Tsarouhas – Atlantic Council) Earlier this month, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited Ankara for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Why the latest attempt at a Greece-Turkey reset, while positive, falls short – Atlantic Council
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
