LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
China – European Union
(Tara Varma – Brookings) French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambition to transform his country’s relationship with China isn’t new. Macron’s first visit to China dates to 2018, mere months after he was elected president. He then vowed to come back at least once a year to cement Franco-Chinese ties. The following year, he hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Paris, alongside Angela Merkel, then Germany’s chancellor, and Jean-Claude Juncker, then the president of the European Commission.
Xi’s visit exposes fault lines in European unity | Brookings
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) During President Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe this week, he must have discovered some parts of Europe have become an entirely different place since his visit five years ago.
China – USA
(Robin Brooks – Brookings) China’s goods exports are close to record levels, yet accumulation of official FX reserves is almost zero. China may be stockpiling oil and other commodities, which offsets some of the dollar inflows from goods exports, reducing the need for China to accumulate official FX reserves. More importantly, net foreign direct investment has turned sharply negative. This may reflect foreign firms pulling back or Chinese outward flows. Data visibility is poor, but our sense is that it is primarily the latter, consistent with an effort to financially decouple from the U.S.
Is China financially decoupling? | Brookings
(Caitlin Welsh, Jude Blanchette, Lily McElwee, Ryan Hass, and Ryan McElveen – CSIS) One of today’s most urgent challenges is rising global food insecurity. Growing populations around the world will require more food while climate change and other pressures are limiting agricultural production, including in the United States and China. At the same time, food insecurity and malnutrition are threatening human health, reducing economic output, and contributing to unrest and conflict in many countries around the world. Given the scale of the challenges, and the critical roles both the United States and China play in global agriculture systems—for example, both countries are among the world’s top importers and exporters of food—U.S.-China cooperation in food and agriculture promises outsized benefits to both countries and the global community.
The Case for U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate-Smart Agriculture (csis.org)
(Joseph S. Nye – ASPI The Strategist) When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing last month in an effort to stabilise relations with China, many of the issues that he discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping were highly contentious.
US-China cooperation remains possible | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
European Union
(Max Bergmann and Federico Steinberg – CSIS) Europe finds itself at both a geopolitical and fiscal crossroads. On the one hand, the European Union is no longer in danger of collapse after a decade of crises. The bloc is beginning to play a stronger global role, with European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen endeavoring—and largely succeeding—to lead a “geopolitical commission.” But on the other hand, Europe is facing growing threats and acute challenges to both its security and its economic and governance model.
Europe’s Fiscal Crossroads (csis.org)
(Chatham House) Europe is at a crossroads. The war in Ukraine continues with no end apparent as yet. Important European Parliament elections are taking place in June with the Bloc’s political future uncertain. Further afield, Israel’s conflict in Gaza and tension in the Middle East has also had wider global repercussions. And with 2024 dubbed, ‘the year of elections’, much of the world anxious as to the viability of democracies worldwide, with a firm eye on the United States in November. On July 1st 2024, Hungary will assume the presidency of the European Council. With a multitude of challenges in Hungary, Europe and around the world, there is plenty to occupy Budapest during its 6-month term. Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary, Péter Szijjártó, will discuss how Hungary intends to utilise its presidency, as well as the wider perspectives from Hungary on the ever fragmenting global order.
France
(Carine Guerout, Jason Moyer – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) In recent weeks, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, in his classic disrupting style, has openly called for debate in Europe over using his country’s nuclear capabilities to defend the continent. In Macron’s view the uncertainty over future US engagement in Europe is forcing the European Union to decide whether it needs a nuclear deterrent of its own—and suggests France may help with this. But it is not clear whether France would be willing—and capable—of extending its nuclear umbrella to the rest of the Union. For this to happen, France would need to address multiple issues, starting with explaining whether it would retain full decision-making over its arsenal, exploring the limitations of its current stockpile of nuclear weapons, and weighing the impact such a decision would have on NATO and its relations with the United States and its fellow EU member states.
Japan – Australia
(Bernice Kissinger – ASPI The Strategist) As Japan steps up military cooperation with the United States and Australia in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific, the Northern Territory is becoming strategically more important. From it, forces can reach into the Indian or Pacific oceans, including the South China Sea. Its location is also ideal for military units, including Japan’s and India’s, to meet and exercise with acceptable transit time.
Middle East
(Nanar Hawach – Crisis Group) Armed groups aligned with Tehran have launched attacks aimed at compelling the U.S. to withdraw troops from Syria – and from Iraq. A ceasefire in Gaza is the best way to calm tensions, but Washington and its local partner can take ameliorative steps in the meantime.
How Iran Seeks to Exploit the Gaza War in Syria’s Volatile East | Crisis Group
(RAND Corporation) Alex Stark thought this year would be different. She studies Yemen, a country that has been mired in civil war for nearly a decade. And at this time last year, peace finally seemed within reach. Then Oct. 7 happened. The war in Gaza happened. And hopes for peace in Yemen slipped away again. Stark is an associate policy researcher at RAND. In a new book, she documents the missteps and missed opportunities that allowed a rebel militia, the Houthis, to seize much of the country in 2014. The Houthis, backed by Iran, are now attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea in a show of support for Gaza. Peace talks have stalled. Instead, the United States and its partners have launched large-scale airstrikes against Houthi missile sites. Stark’s book, published in April, is titled The Yemen Model: Why U.S. Policy Has Failed in the Middle East. Understanding what went so wrong in Yemen, she argues, provides a window into how the United States could play a more effective role throughout the region.
What Went Wrong in Yemen: Q&A with Alexandra Stark | RAND
Myanmar
(Craig Keating – Lowy The Interpreter) Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has presented himself as a possible mediator of Myanmar’s civil war. But Thaksin is likely motivated by his own political and financial interests. His past personal ties to Myanmar’s military leader could hamstring any claims to be an honest broker.
Thaksin Shinawatra’s Myanmar talks likely driven by politics and money | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Steven Pifer – Brookings) Russia has again raised the prospect of nuclear war with regard to Ukraine. On May 6, the Russian Defense Ministry announced an exercise near Ukraine involving the possible use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. This comes as the Russian army struggles to make major gains on the battlefield while the West continues to support Kyiv with arms and ammunition.
Holding one’s nerve in the face of Russian nuclear threats | Brookings
USA
(Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The United States has embarked on a wide-ranging nuclear modernization program that will ultimately see every nuclear delivery system replaced with newer versions over the coming decades. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads—an unchanged estimate from the previous year. Of these, only about 1,770 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1,938 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,336 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,044 nuclear warheads. Of the approximately 1,770 warheads that are deployed, 400 are on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, roughly 970 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are at bomber bases in the United States, and approximately 100 tactical bombs are at European bases.
United States nuclear weapons, 2024 – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
(Alexandra T. Evans, Andrew Radin, Katie Feistel, Krista Langeland, Bruce McClintock, Howard Wang – RAND Corporation) Improvements in Russian and Chinese counterspace capabilities could endanger the space-based capabilities that the United States relies on for a broad array of military and economic functions. The proliferation of U.S. and adversary capabilities could lead to unstable competition in space, raising the risk of unintended military escalation. In this report, the authors examine the conventional wisdom on escalation in the space domain to offer recommendations for how the U.S. Space Force (USSF) and other stakeholders can better prepare to deter and manage escalation. They investigate the implications of six propositions related to stability: (1) the incentives to employ offensive capabilities early in a conflict, (2) the benefits of leveraging foreign and commercial systems, (3) the utility of communications channels for crisis prevention and de-escalation, (4) the feasibility of promoting shared norms of responsible behavior, (5) the strategic benefits of selective revelation, and (6) the use of reversible capabilities to manage escalation.
Space Strategic Stability: Assessing U.S. Concepts and Approaches | RAND
USA – Middle East
(Chatham House) As the 2024 US elections draw closer, the rest of the world is seeking a clarity on the future of US global priorities. With two wars dominating international headlines, and roiling politics inside the US, including in the US Congress, the Biden administration is under growing pressure to change course and deliver stability in the Middle East, and also to set clearer goals with respect to Ukraine. With the 2024 US Presidential Election approaching, questions are mounting domestically over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza war and its wider policy towards the Middle East.
A turning point for US foreign policy? (chathamhouse.org)
USA – UK
(Wyn Rees – RUSI) If Donald Trump is elected for a second time as US president, the UK will need to draw on the skill of not only its diplomats but also its armed services to maintain the durability of the transatlantic relationship.
Trump, NATO and Anglo-American Relations | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA – Ukraine
(Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) Nine charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders.
How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Vietnam
(Bill Hayton – Chatham House) In just a few weeks, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has shredded its reputation for boring political stability. A long-running power struggle, disguised by a wider anti-corruption campaign, has resulted in the sudden sacking of both the country’s president, Vo Van Thuong, and the chair of the National Assembly.
War in Ukraine
(Gordon Weiss – Lowy The Interpreter) It is 800 days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when I sit with Yevhen Hlibovytsky in a small café near the national public broadcaster in Kyiv. Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has just wrapped up a flying visit to Ukraine to deliver a further grant of $100 million in military aid. Air raid warnings are frequent again, even as we talk, though with no apparent follow-up of missiles blasting the capital as they did last May when just five days passed without a strike piercing air defences.
All wars end. But how will the one in Ukraine? | Lowy Institute
(Tennyson Dearing – Lowy The Interpreter) “We can repeat” is the slogan used every 9 May when Russians remember the Red Army’s victory in the Second World War. Elsewhere on the continent, Europeans promise “never again”. The difference between the two was on display again this week with massive attacks across Ukraine. That’s why in Kyiv it was welcome news that the United Kingdom is allowing strikes on Russian territory with British-supplied weapons, following the same approach taken by Finland and Latvia.
Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue | Lowy Institute
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
