LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
China
(Megha Shrivastava – East Asia Forum) Despite initially relying on US chipmaker Nvidia, Chinese enterprises are seeking domestic alternatives due to downgraded chip performance. Huawei has been identified as a major contender. The Chinese government is encouraging this shift by subsidising companies that can source locally, resulting in increasing collaboration between domestic chipmakers, producers and providers, and establishing Chinese AI companies such as Huawei and Baidu as competitive players against foreign reliance.
Chinese AI companies a perfect match for domestic chipmakers | East Asia Forum
China – Iran – Russia
(Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze – Atlantic Council) Oil revenue is a lifeline for the Iranian and Russian economies, but Western sanctions have jeopardized both countries’ ability to ship oil and receive payments. In response, Iran and Russia have redirected oil shipments to China—the world’s largest importer of crude oil. In 2023, China saved a reported ten billion dollars by purchasing crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia.
The axis of evasion: Behind China’s oil trade with Iran and Russia – Atlantic Council
Iran – Azerbaijan
(Emil Avdaliani – The Jamestown Foundation) New developments in the South Caucasus have opened a window for possible long-term rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, especially on trade and transit matters. Baku seeks increased regional stability amid tense peace negotiations with Armenia and a falling out with some Western countries over Karabakh. Tehran is interested in improving ties with Azerbaijan to maintain its role in regional transit and as part of a wider effort to normalize troubled relations with its neighbors.
Azerbaijan and Iran Seek Common Ground Amid Regional Tensions – Jamestown
Moldova
(Dumitru Minzarari – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s interest and level of subversive activities in Moldova has grown, leading the Moldovan Foreign Ministry to state that Russia’s actions “undermine Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. The latest escalation in bilateral ties provides an informative snapshot of Russia’s intentions for Moldova, exploiting local political proxies to challenge the upcoming elections. Chisinau can still mitigate many of the Kremlin’s threats by refocusing and reshaping its foreign policy to respond more resolutely to Moscow’s provocations.
Moldova’s Obscure Russia Policy Presents a Major Vulnerability Before Elections – Jamestown
Near East
(Christina Bouri – Council on Foreign Relations) The leading UN aid agency for Palestinian refugees is engulfed in allegations that twelve of its employees were involved in the Hamas attacks on southern Israel. The agency faces severe funding cutbacks, with huge consequences for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
The UN’s Palestinian Aid Controversy: What’s at Stake | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Russia
1 – (Daniel Byman – Lawfare) The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack that killed over 130 people at the Crocus City Hall theater in Moscow on March 22—the worst terrorist attack Russia has seen in 20 years. U.S. officials attributed specific blame to the Islamic State Khorasan Province, commonly referred to as ISIS-K, a group based in Afghanistan and Pakistan that professes loyalty to the Islamic State’s overall leadership.
What to Make of the ISIS-K Attack on Moscow | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
2 – (Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Ideology-driven paramilitary groups in Russia have grown significantly in size and influence since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, with the Russian Imperial Movement and “Rusich” representing perhaps the most active entities in this regard. Both groups are built on far-right, ultranationalist, and neo-Nazi views and have criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership as well as his calls to “denazify” Ukraine, signaling a lack of blind loyalty to the Kremlin. As the domestic situation in Russia deteriorates, these groups could pose a threat to the Putin regime’s hold on power and further destabilize Russian society.
Ideology-Driven Paramilitary Groups Threaten Russia and Beyond – Jamestown
3 – (Valery Dzutsati – The Jamestown Foundation) The Islamic State in Khorasan Province’s claim of responsibility for the attack on Crocus City Hall outside of Moscow, has led the Kremlin to stoke Islamophobic sentiments throughout Russia. Representatives of Russia’s Muslim minority warn fellow Muslims that the attack may lead to increased societal violence against religious minorities in the country. Should Moscow’s repressive efforts disproportionately target Muslims within Russia, those actions may trigger violence in the North Caucasus and elsewhere.
Terrorist Attack on Concert Hall Threatens to Stoke Tensions in North Caucasus – Jamestown
4 – (Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) No Russian institution has lost more ground since President Vladimir Putin launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine than the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP)—a development that undermines Putin’s “Russian world” vision. These self-inflicted losses are disrupting the Moscow church’s position in Ukraine and the Baltic countries, as well as other parts of the post-Soviet space, including Russia itself. This trend is reducing Patriarch Kirill’s power and reach, raising the question of whether the ROC MP will remain united within Russia and capable of preventing its own institutional demise.
Moscow Church Losing Ground Throughout Post-Soviet Space, Including in Russia – Jamestown
5 – (Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian propaganda has admitted to the involvement of Islamic State militants in the attack on Crocus City Hall while pushing the narrative that the West is to blame at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s direction. Direct orders from the Kremlin to lay blame for the tragedy on Ukraine and the West signals the impossibility of an objective investigation. The Russian authorities will likely manipulate results to suit Putin’s narrative, as ensuring the general population’s safety seems to be a secondary priority for the Kremlin.
Russians Left With Unanswered Questions After Crocus City Hall Attack – Jamestown
USA
1 – (Joseph Webster – Atlantic Council) The US housing shortage has profound economic consequences. Less discussed is the fact that it is slowing down the US climate transition. Many regions of the United States, especially California and New York, are failing to build dense urban housing which is associated with lower emissions. But there is another, indirect way that the housing shortage is sabotaging efforts to decarbonize the US economy. Inadequate housing is stimulating inflation and lifting interest rates, which hurts the economic viability of clean energy projects.
Housing costs are slowing down the US climate transition – Atlantic Council
2 – (Joseph W. Kane, Fred Dews – Brookings) The recent collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore after being struck by a container ship is both a human tragedy and an economic disaster. Six construction workers doing repair work on the bridge lost their lives when it plunged into the cold Patapsco River. The wreckage of the bridge now sits in the channel that connects Baltimore Harbor to the Chesapeake Bay, effectively closing the Port of Baltimore. Joe Kane, a fellow in Brookings Metro, talks about the economic impacts of the disaster and prospects for rebuilding the bridge.
Economic impact of the Baltimore bridge collapse | Brookings
3 – (Morley Winograd, Michael Hais – Brookings) There is no doubt that Americans are deeply divided and more polarized than ever. Many have tried to understand the source of those divisions, variously ascribing them to economic forces, cultural divisions, or media echo chambers. American pollsters have found it challenging to accurately gauge voting preferences in our most recent elections. But few of them have tried to ask new questions that might provide insights into why Americans vote the way they do. Fortunately, those working on The Economist/YouGov weekly surveys, have done so. The result is not only a new way of understanding the attitudes of the American electorate, but a new framework for understanding what needs to be done by everyone involved in our civic life to restore Americans’ faith in the future of their democracy.
When worldviews collide: America’s 2024 election | Brookings
4 – (John P. Barrientos – Council on Foreign Relations) The U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered fleet has been central to the country’s ability to project power globally for decades. But this world-class nuclear navy—including all current U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines—is under threat amid a steady exodus of highly trained officers and enlisted personnel. The attrition in the nuclear workforce raises serious concerns about the sustainability of the modern fleet in a time of rising geopolitical competition.
The U.S. Navy Has a Nuclear Workforce Problem | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – China
(Scott Kennedy – Center for Strategic and International Studies) The United States and China have avoided outright scholarly decoupling, but the over-securitization of every element of the relationship is restricting a more comprehensive recoupling of ties, a vexing situation which is stifling research, limiting overseas study, reducing mutual understanding, and harming the national interest of both countries. These are the key conclusions of this report, which is the culmination of a two-year initiative led by CSIS and Peking University. The 27 essays in this volume, contributed by American and Chinese scholars from a wide range of disciplines, explain the benefits of U.S.-China scholarly cooperation to the two societies and the world at large, identify the obstacles to greater exchanges, and outline practical strategies for overcoming these challenges. Although the U.S. and Chinese governments must play a central role in creating a stronger foundation for relations in general and scholarly cooperation in particular, it will be up to the scholarly community itself—professors, researchers, administrators, editors, funders, and students—to ensure that their principles are protected and their mission furthered.
USA – European Union
(Frances Burwell – Atlantic Council) On April 4, the leadership of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) will meet in Leuven, Belgium, for what is expected to be the last session until after elections later this year in the European Union (EU) and the United States. This meeting will be crucial for convincing whoever is in power next year that the TTC is an experiment worth continuing. The TTC needs to demonstrate that it has a central role to play in addressing the challenges that the United States and the EU must meet together.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
