LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
(Chatham House) 1,000 days have passed since the Taliban banned girls attending schools in Afghanistan. What is the situation for women and girls now and what can be done to help?
Argentina
(Esteban Actis – Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales) The aim of this policy brief is to analyze the international insertion of Argentina within a context of deep changes in the structure of international order. The coevolution of the relations between Washington and Beijing undoubtedly sets the pace for international relations and has an impact on every player of the system, whether States, companies, and other agents. For peripheral and developing countries, having a good understanding of the international scenario is fundamental to maximize emerging opportunities and to try to minimize threats. This brief will provide possible future scenarios with corresponding recommendations regarding actions.
Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (cari.org.ar)
Bulgaria
(Dimitar Keranov – GMF) The centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria – Union of Democratic Forces (GERB-SDS) of former prime minister Boyko Borissov won Bulgaria’s June 9 parliamentary elections, garnering 24.08 per cent of the votes. Тhis was an election with the lowest voter turnout ever, of just 33.4 per cent, signalling a disappointment in Bulgarian democracy by the voters.
China – Taiwan
(Brian Kerg – Atlantic Council) “All forms of media is propaganda, we’re just more honest about it.” So declares the social media profile of Zhao DaShuai, a member of the People’s Armed Police Propaganda Bureau. Chinese strategy is often characterized by its reliance on deception, but like so many authoritarian regimes, the Chinese Communist Party often says exactly what it’s doing and why it’s doing it.
Think China can already take Taiwan easily? Think again. – Atlantic Council
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Paulo Bastos, Jacob Greenspon, Katherine Stapleton, Daria Taglioni – VOXEU) Achieving global net zero emissions requires rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies. Using online job postings from 35 countries, this column measures the diffusion of low-carbon technology-related skills from 2014 to 2022 and investigates the role of the 2022 global energy crisis in driving labour demand. The data show a significant rise in job postings in 2022, particularly in Europe. Energy-intensive firms and those in countries more reliant on natural gas imports saw a faster increase in low-carbon technology-related hiring. These findings indicate the potential of energy price shocks and carbon pricing to accelerate adoption of these technologies.
Crisis breeds innovation: How the 2022 energy crisis accelerated green technology adoption | CEPR
European Union
(Spencer Feingold,Simon Torkington – World Economic Forum) Right-wing parties gained ground in the 2024 European Parliament elections, though less than predicted. Despite the significant wins and losses, no single bloc emerged with an overall majority in the European Parliament. Centrist parties are working to form a coalition to support a second term for Ursula von der Leyen.
EU elections 2024: Who won and lost – and what happens next? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
France
(GMF) The rise of the National Rally (RN) in France during the European elections contrasts with the opposite trend observed in Europe, where far-right parties are in retreat, notably in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, highlights Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, GMF Vice President, Geostrategy.
Globalization
(Asian Development Bank Institute) Using a cross-sectional dataset of 13 manufacturing sectors in 27 Asian developing countries from 2008 to 2022, we investigated the impact of the presence of foreign firms on wages of workers from domestic firms. First, we found that the average wage of workers from foreign firms is higher than that of workers from domestic firms. This pattern is more pronounced in the cases of low-income countries and the service sector. Second, the average wage of workers from domestic firms that are exposed to foreign firms is higher than that of domestic firms without exposure to foreign firms, indicating a spillover of wages from foreign to domestic firms. Third, the presence of foreign firms is found to widen the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers. Based on our findings, we argue that developing countries should improve their FDI environment to attract FDI and upgrade the quality of unskilled labor by providing education and training, in order to reduce the wage gap.
Globalization and Equality: A Cross-Country Analysis | Asian Development Bank (adb.org)
India – G7
(Harsh V. Pant, Angad Singh Brar – Observer Research Foundation) At a time when a Russian nuclear submarine remains docked in Cuba merely 90 miles south of Florida, the G-7 leaders have gathered in Italy for the 50th annual summit of the grouping of one of the world’s richest Western democracies. As the US-Russia tensions reach nearer to the American coast, Italy’s Presidency of the G-7 has attempted to signal to the world that these geopolitical contestations cannot be reduced to a ‘west versus rest’ narrative.
Modi In Apulia: India Can Be The Bridge Between G7 And The Rest (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Peyman Asadzade – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Iran is currently in a state of nuclear latency; it possesses the necessary materials to develop nuclear weapons should it decide to proceed. However, Iranian leaders have consistently stated that the country has no such intentions. Historically, public opinion polls since the mid-2000s have consistently demonstrated that while Iranians favored a peaceful nuclear program, a majority of them opposed developing nuclear weapons. A recent survey, however, suggests that Iranian citizens are growing more receptive to nuclear weapons.
Iran – Saudi Arabia
(Crisis Group) Progress in restoring relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has sputtered over a year after China brokered a rapprochement. To get it going again, the two states will need to contain disagreements while they work to advance in less political domains.
Great Expectations: The Future of Iranian-Saudi Détente | Crisis Group
Japan – European Union
(IISS) Robert Ward hosts Iwama Yoko, Professor at Japan’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Guibourg Delamotte, Professor of Political Science at the Japanese Studies Department of the French Institute of Oriental Studies (Inalco), and Dr Alexandra Sakaki, Deputy Head of the Asia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs at Stiftung Wissenschaft and Politik (SWP).
Mexico
(Michael Reid – Elcano Royal Institute) Few doubted that Claudia Sheinbaum, the hand-picked candidate of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, would win Mexico’s presidential election on 2 June. But similarly, few foresaw the scale of her victory. Not only did she win 59.8% of the popular vote but the ruling coalition also won the two-thirds majority of seats in the lower house of Congress required to change the constitution and ended just three short of a similar majority in the Senate. Sheinbaum will thus have a clear mandate –she won more votes and a higher percentage than López Obrador (or AMLO, as he is often known) did in 2018–.
Middle East and the Gulf
(Crisis Group) The United Arab Emirates signed the 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel in pursuit of strategic benefits. During the Gaza war, costs are becoming clear. Abu Dhabi shows no sign of rethinking normalisation, but it might consider smaller steps to register discontent with the Israeli campaign.
The UAE, Israel and a Test of Influence | Crisis Group
(Elijah Glantz, George Hancock – RUSI) Since its emergence in the early years of the Syrian Civil War, ‘Captagon’, a cheap amphetamine, has had a seismic impact on both the societies and geopolitics of the Middle East.
(Bruce Hoffman – Council on Foreign Relations) Israel has made eliminating the threat from the Gaza-based militant group a central war aim, but it’s not entirely clear at what point that condition will be met.
How Much of a Threat Does Hamas Still Pose to Israel? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Mozambique – South Africa – Zambia
(SAIIA) Focusing on NDC development and civil society participation in Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia, this paper sets out recommendations to enhance collaboration between government and civil society to support more inclusive NDC development processes.
Multilateralism
(Nicolas Buchoud – Asian Development Bank Institute) By the end of 2024, people across 65 countries, nearly half of the global population, will have cast a vote in an election, marking the biggest manifestation of the democratic process in history. With populism on the rise, the geopolitical landscape of 2025 could therefore look very different from that of today. Multilateralism can be seen as being under threat, but think tanks can play an important role in supporting it through new forms of scientific and policy cooperation.
Quad
(Observer Research Foundation) The Quad, initially known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a strategic diplomatic partnership composed of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. The group’s origins can be traced back to December 2004 when these four countries first came together as an ad-hoc grouping to provide humanitarian aid and assistance to countries affected by the Indian Ocean Tsunami. Despite the end of the humanitarian relief operation in January 2005, a push for a more formal partnership continued. In 2007, the group held its inaugural, albeit informal first meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila, the Philippines. However, the initial iteration of the Quad was short-lived, as concerns about the group’s impact on diplomatic relations—particularly with China—led to its informal dissolution in 2008.
Two Decades of the Quad: Diplomacy and Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (orfonline.org)
South Korea – Africa
(Gurjit Singh – Observer Research Foundation) The Korea-Africa Summit held from 4-5 June 2024 was a significant event for both partners. The Summit aimed to elevate cooperation under the theme ‘The Future We Make Together: Shared Growth, Sustainability, and Solidarity.’ It was co-chaired by Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Mauritania President, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, the current chair of the African Union (AU). It was attended by 48 African delegations, including 25 leaders, without following the Banjul format with AU acquiescence.
South Korea shifts focus to Africa (orfonline.org)
Turkiye
(Crisis Group) Nigar Göksel about Türkye’s policy in its neighbourhood as Ankara seeks to defend its interests in a region caught up and reshaped by recent wars.
Türkiye in its Neighbourhood: “Strong in the Field, Strong at the Table”? | Crisis Group
(IISS) Turkiye’s defence-industrial partnerships have shifted over time as the country’s position in international politics has changed. In this report, as part of a joint project with the IISS, researchers from the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research explore how this process has developed and the tensions in the country’s current position.
UK
(Francis Ghilès – Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) On July 4, British voters will elect lawmakers to fill all 650 seats in the House of Commons, and the leader of the majority who will become prime minister. Polls give a comfortable victory to the Labour opposition. UK snap electionis Rishi Sunak’s response to the severe defeat the Conservative Party suffered in the last local elections, where the Tories achieved their worst results in the last 40 years.
CIDOB – UK prepare to give the boot to worst British government
UK – China
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) For the UK’s Conservative government ‘ambivalence’ has been the watchword in how to manage relations with Beijing. Yet in seeking to balance concerns about security, a desire to align with the US, and pressure to engage economically, the UK government has ended up with a muddled approach to relations with China. The election on 4 July offers an opportunity for the incoming government to inject more clarity into the relationship, which is at its lowest ebb for many years.
Ukraine
(Razumkov Centre) The Peace Summit, scheduled to take place in Switzerland on 15-16 June 2024, is Kyiv’s strategic initiative of regional and global scale and significance. After being presented in the autumn of 2022, the peace summit has become one of the main foreign policy priorities that Ukrainian diplomacy has been persistently promoting across the globe, at all levels and international platforms. However, it should be borne in mind that the summit, albeit important, but only initial stage of a complex political and diplomatic process. Moreover, it is an integral part of ending the war in Ukraine. Therefore, the summit’s success depends on many other factors, including the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to resist russian intervention, international assistance, and the determination and unity of allied countries.
2024-PAKT-10-ENGL.pdf (razumkov.org.ua)
(Vjaceslavs Dombrovskis Maurice Obstfeld Ilona Sologoub Yuriy Gorodnichenko Torbjörn Becker Anastassia Fedyk Gérard Roland Beatrice Weder Di Mauro – Centre for Economic Policy Research) More than 830 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war shows no signs of abating. Millions of refugees have fled Ukraine for Europe and other regions, gradually integrating into the labour markets and societies of their host countries. Despite demonstrating remarkable resilience, Ukraine’s economy faces severe challenges. The war effort exerts a significant toll on the country’s public finances and growth prospects, raising critical questions about strategies to boost Ukrainian production and encourage the return of migrants during the ongoing conflict and within a relatively short time frame.
Policy Insight 132: Stimulating growth in Ukraine and policies for migrants’ return | CEPR
USA
(Chloe Shrager – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The Pentagon’s new multibillion-dollar intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program has come under fire as a continual offender of overspending, but there has been little reaction on the issue from Congress. The most recent cost overrun for the Sentinel ICBM (previously known as the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent or GBSD) put the program’s budget an unprecedented 37 percent higher than previous estimates and extended its operational schedule by at least two years. As a result, the Pentagon is critically reviewing the program to determine if it will continue or be canceled.
