From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : AUKUS-Australia, Ecuador, Georgia-PACE, Germany-US, Indonesia, Philippines-US, Russia, US, US-Greenland, Geostrategies
AUKUS – Australia
(Edward Cavanough, Peter Dean – ASPI The Strategist) The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership has now survived the bumpy inauguration of Donald Trump as US president. It has earned the endorsement of newly confirmed Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. It has also seemingly retained strong bipartisan congressional support. Now, the focus for Australia’s biggest and most ambitious defence capability project must turn back to delivery. – Delivering AUKUS with Australia’s premier state | The Strategist
Ecuador
(Isabel Chiriboga – Atlantic Council) On February 9, Ecuadorians will head to the polls to elect their next president in what is shaping up to be a consequential election for the country and the wider region. Whether after one or two rounds of voting, whichever candidate emerges as the winner will have an opportunity to determine the trajectory of Ecuador and help shape security across the Western Hemisphere. Once known as an “island of peace,” Ecuador has become a cautionary tale of how quickly a country can be destabilized by the corrupting power of organized crime, illicit trade, and weak institutions. The next president will inherit a country in crisis, facing the challenges of rebuilding trust in government and addressing the surge of crime that has made Ecuador the most violent country in the region—all while battling an economic recession. – What Ecuador’s election will mean for the region’s fight against organized crime – Atlantic Council
Georgia – PACE
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) On January 29, the Republic of Georgia ceased participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) after the latter demanded new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners. Tbilisi’s exit from PACE threatens its eligibility for EU candidacy. The move signals a shift from pro-European policies, jeopardizing democratic reforms, straining relations with key Western institutions, and challenging the ruling Georgian Dream party’s legitimacy. Georgia’s government, under Georgian Dream, shows a decreasing commitment to European values, and its turn from the West reflects rising authoritarian tendencies and waning European identity as it pivots closer to Russia. – Georgia Leaves Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe – Jamestown
Germany – US
(Rachel Rizzo, James Batchik – Atlantic Council) Voters in Germany will head to the polls on February 23 at a precarious moment for the transatlantic alliance. US President Donald Trump is back in the White House, Germany’s economy continues to lag behind those of its peers, energy prices are high, and the war in Ukraine continues to rage. The next German government will have no shortage of issues to confront head on. Although a more forward-leaning security and defense posture might not be at the forefront of voters’ minds, the next chancellor should make this a priority given that it will in part determine the health of the US-German relationship for at least the next four years. – The next German chancellor must lead from the front, not the middle, on European security – Atlantic Council
Indonesia
(Maula Mohamad Haykal – ASPI The Strategist) Despite being the largest archipelagic nation in the world, Indonesia has weak seabed warfare capability. Improving it should be a priority for Jakarta. As an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, the country is uniquely reliant on seabed infrastructure and is therefore unusually vulnerable to disruption of its pipelines or cables. It has little ability to prevent or recover from damage to its seabed assets and lacks the hardware, skills and planning needed to cope with threats. – Indonesia needs to improve its seabed warfare capability | The Strategist
Philippines – US
(Richard Javad Heydarian – Lowy The Interpreter) As the second Trump administration assembled, the Philippines appeared relatively sanguine about the prospects of stronger bilateral relations. The elevation of China hawks such as new Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has argued for stronger assistance to Asian allies, was encouraging to Manila, which has been grappling with festering maritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea. – Trump’s grand bargain? The Philippines caught between US and China | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is planning extensive events for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II (WWII), using historical memory as a tool to legitimize its Ukraine invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” and propaganda lessons, military-themed competitions, and Cossack institutionalization aim to instill a narrative of Russian resilience. The Kremlin’s efforts to equate Soviet victories with current military operations serve to justify its ongoing aggression. Russia is fostering a militarized identity while potentially reframing future peace agreements as extensions of past triumphs. – Russia Prepares for 80th Anniversary of the End of World War Two – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow’s need to supply its invasion forces in Ukraine, its rapid shift of trade away from Europe toward Asia due to sanctions, and slashed investments have put unprecedented strains on Russian railways. China will seek alternative routes for trade with Europe, using domestic Russian railways only for bilateral trade. The problems of Russia’s railroads, highlighted by declines in the speed of Russian trains and the amount of trade they carry, will have immense and increasingly negative political and geopolitical consequences for the Kremlin. – Russian Railways Becoming a Growing Political and Geopolitical Problem for Moscow – Jamestown
US
(Kristina Fong Siew Leng – FULCRUM) In less than two weeks into his second presidency, President Trump has set in motion global trade uncertainties that we have come to expect under his leadership. At the time of writing, the implementation of proposed tariff measures concerning Canada and Mexico has been put on hold for 30 days after these countries agreed to ramp up security at their borders. This will allow the two countries to start negotiations with the US on a more concrete deal. That said, tariffs on China stand as Beijing retaliates with tariffs of between 10-15 per cent on selected US imports including coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil and agricultural machinery. Apart from the tariffs, China will also start an anti-trust investigation into Google. – Navigating Trump 2.0 Tariffs: Keep Calm and Carry On | FULCRUM
(Navin Girishankar – Center for Strategic & International Studies) If we ever needed a reminder that surprises are a constant, the dual disruptions between Trump 2.0 actions and DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough over the last fortnight have not disappointed. Whatever we had priced in prior to these events, many of us—technocrats, technologists, and investors alike—were left rethinking assumptions. The tsunami of executive orders, followed by planned International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, deportations, and actions from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—surprising in scope and speed—may have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy, government, and international relations. For now, the United States in the midst of a thick policy fog—and it is hard to discern how things will play out. – A Dual Disruption and the Constant of Surprises: Trump 2.0 and Deepseek
(Philip Luck – Center for Strategic & International Studies) There is no shortage of well-reasoned, -researched, and -written pieces spelling out how misguided the Trump administration’s threatened but ultimately delayed application of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as its imposed tariffs on China are. They will be economically costly, raise prices for consumers and producers, and lower growth. If the past is prologue, any revenue earned will be offset by bailouts to industries harmed by retaliation. What’s more, these tariffs and bailouts will distort economic activity, push firms toward less productive activities, and make it harder to compete with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the industries of tomorrow. – How U.S. Tariffs on Allies Undermine Economic Statecraft
(John B. Bellinger III – Council on Foreign Relations) Last week, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to the secretaries of defense and the homeland security directing them “to take all appropriate actions to expand the Migrant Operations Center at Naval Station Guantánamo Bay to full capacity to provide additional detention space for high-priority criminal aliens unlawfully present in the United States.”. Trump wants to use part of the base that has housed migrants interdicted in the Caribbean to now hold certain undocumented immigrants arrested in the United States. To be clear, the Migrant Operations Center is a different part of the base than the one that has been used to detain terrorism suspects since 2002 and that resulted in widespread international criticism of the United States for placing detainees in a legal “black hole.” – Can the United States Send Undocumented Immigrants to Guantánamo Bay? | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) He’s hitting the pause button—for now. On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced that he was pausing the proposed 25 percent US tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada after those two countries’ respective leaders agreed to strengthen border security and invest more in counternarcotics initiatives. However, the 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods went into effect at midnight on Tuesday, with Beijing quickly retaliating. What’s next for the United States’ tariff policy on its North American neighbors and China? And what other countries might Trump threaten tariffs against next? – Where do the Trump tariffs go from here? – Atlantic Council
US – Greenland
(Daniel Fried – Atlantic Council) When the United States asked its friends for help earlier in this century, Denmark stepped forward, sending troops to fight and sometimes die in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now Danes face threats and intimidation from the United States in the form of President Donald Trump’s demand that Denmark sell or cede Greenland, against the apparent wishes of the Greenland people. That’s a shameful prospect for those who remember that the United States rose to world leadership by standing for something more than great-power bullying, à la greedy European kings and dynasties that the United States was founded to leave behind. Trump claims to put “America first.” There is a better way to advance US interests. – On Greenland, Trump’s choice is warmed-over McKinley or a landmark security deal – Atlantic Council
Geostrategies
(Joseph S Nye Jr – ASPI The Strategist) As wildfires raged through Los Angeles in January, the infamous American conspiracy theorist Alex Jones posted on X (formerly Twitter) that they were ‘part of a larger globalist plot to wage economic warfare & deindustrialize the [United] States’. While Jones’s suggestion of causality was absurd, he was right that the fires had something to do with globalisation. Last year was Earth’s hottest since recordkeeping began—and likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years—eclipsing the record set in 2023. For the first time, global average temperatures exceeded the Paris climate agreement’s target of 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels. For this, scientists overwhelmingly blame human-caused climate change. – Does globalisation have a future? | The Strategist
