From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Cyprus, Europe, India-Myanmar, Israel-US, Middle East, Pakistan, Philippines, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand-Myanmar, US, US-Baltic
Cyprus
(Emirates Policy Center) Recently, diplomatic efforts have intensified among concerned stakeholders to revive negotiations aimed at resolving the Cypriot issue. These efforts come amid significant strategic developments in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, and Nicosia’s announcement of its intention to join NATO. Turkiye remains opposed to the federal solution for Cyprus, instead advocating for a two-state solution. Ankara also insists on maintaining its military presence on the island and demands equal rights for Turkish Cypriots similar to those enjoyed by Greek Cypriots. There is a possibility of reaching a confederal solution for Cyprus as part of a broader regional agreement during the administration of US President Donald Trump. Nicosia’s NATO aspirations could serve as an incentive for compromise. In addition, Ankara is eager to bolster its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly in light of potential maritime border agreements with Syria, Lebanon and Cyprus, should a resolution be achieved. However, several obstacles hinder progress toward a solution, including ongoing disputes over Turkiye’s military presence on the island, divergent views on the final settlement model, disagreements over the sharing of natural resources and maritime border demarcation, as well as broader regional complexities that could impact negotiations. – Emirates Policy Center | The Cypriot Issue: Efforts to Revive Negotiations and Prospects for a Major Regional Deal
Europe
(Ester Sabatino – IISS) The second von der Leyen Commission (2024–29) intends to elevate defence to be one of the European Union’s top priorities and we can expect more concrete plans to support this. New EU institutional structures reflect changes in priorities, including the appointment of the first-ever EU Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the upgrade of the Subcommittee on Security and Defence in the European Parliament to a Standing Committee. The current Commission has also committed to building a European Defence Union to help replenish and upgrade European armed forces, increase capacity through flagship defence projects, develop a single market for defence and improve EU–NATO cooperation. – Awaiting the ‘big bang’ in European defence
India – Myanmar
(Sreeparna Banerjee, Debashis Chakraborty – Observer Research Foundation) Sittwe Port in Myanmar’s Rakhine State is part of India’s Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport project. It connects India’s northeastern states to the Bay of Bengal, advancing the country’s Act East policy and strengthening regional connectivity. Operational since May 2023, the port has handled over 109,000 tonnes of cargo so far, showcasing its potential to bolster trade. However, challenges to the port’s commercial viability persist, including Myanmar’s political instability, insurgency threats, and infrastructural delays. These challenges need to be addressed, as Sittwe Port holds strategic importance in countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative and fostering regional cooperation under frameworks such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation. This paper examines the operational readiness, economic imperatives, and strategic significance of Sittwe Port while exploring avenues for enhancing its role in promoting regional integration and stability. – Facilitating India-Myanmar Trade Through Sittwe Port: Opportunities and Challenges
Israel – US
(The Soufan Center) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited President Donald Trump at the White House yesterday, with the meeting focusing on a range of issues, including the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, what a “victory” over Hamas would look like, and the necessity of continuing to counter Iran, among other topics. During Trump’s first term, a number of his initiatives helped buoy Netanyahu’s popularity within Israel, including at politically precarious moments, but in early 2025, the situation looks much different after fifteen months of war in the region. Phase two of the agreement is supposed to begin later this week, but many believe that Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to delay this phase, as he finds himself under pressure from a coalition of far-right ministers in the Israeli government and national security apparatus. The debate over how to approach Iran heated up this week, when it was revealed that a new U.S. intelligence estimate assesses that Iran could be experimenting with a faster and cruder approach to developing a nuclear weapon. – Mr. Netanyahu Goes to Washington – The Soufan Center
Middle East
(Emirates Policy Center) The ceasefire agreement in Gaza has not achieved all of Israel’s war objectives, especially ending Hamas’ rule. Hamas is likely to use the deal to reorganize its military ranks and reassert its authority in the Strip. The agreement does not address Gaza’s political future. Israel is expected to make this a condition for advancing to the second phase, making negotiations between Hamas and Israel particularly challenging. The Israeli government is likely to continue implementing the agreement while maintaining military pressure through targeted operations to prevent Hamas from regaining strength. Moreover, Israel will push international and regional actors to support efforts to end Hamas’ rule. The stance of the Trump administration will be crucial in determining the fate of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, just as it was in securing the first phase. – Emirates Policy Center | A Temporary Ceasefire or a Lasting Peace? The Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza and Challenges of the Second Phase
Pakistan
(Timothy Wright – IISS) Washington has raised the spectre of Pakistan pursuing far longer-range ballistic missiles capable of striking targets beyond its traditional priority area of South Asia – including in the United States – within a decade. Washington’s claims have met with flat denial from Islamabad. The US assessment is based, at least in part, on developments over the last two years in Pakistan’s capacity to test much larger rocket motors than before. From Washington’s perspective, what is currently a non-proliferation challenge could develop into a deterrence issue. – Developments concerning Pakistan’s ballistic-missile programme
Philippines
(JC Punongbayan – FULCRUM) In the Philippines, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) creates the economy’s master plan. Plans to overhaul NEDA to make it more responsive to the needs of the 21st century are underway. However, the changes are largely cosmetic, focusing on changing its name and status as a new cabinet department. A merger with more active agencies would boost policy coordination across different government entities. – Rethinking Economic Planning in the Philippines | FULCRUM
Syria
(Shelly Culbertson, Louay Constant – RAND Corporation) The sudden fall of Syria’s Assad regime in early December has raised an important question: Can the 6 million who became refugees during the 14-year civil war now go home? Officials in Turkey, Austria, Denmark, and Bulgaria have started publicly discussing plans to repatriate the Syrian refugees in those countries. Others—including France, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, and Greece—have frozen asylum applications from Syria. – After the Assad Regime’s Fall, Will Syrian Refugees Return? | RAND
Taiwan
(Chiang Min-Hua – East Asia Forum) Despite China’s military threats, Taiwan saw strong economic growth in 2024, outperforming Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and China. These results were due to a resilient export industry and an increase in Taiwanese businesses’ production flexibility following the US-China trade frictions. But concerns remain over income inequality, triggered by over-reliance on the tech industry and heightened by stagnant wage growth and high inflation, putting spotlight on increasing social welfare and defence expenditures in the face of future prosperity and threats. – Taiwan’s economic growth prevails despite China’s military intimidation | East Asia Forum
Thailalnd – Myanmar
(Nyi Nyi Kyaw – FULCRUM) The Thai-Myanmar border is both a crucial refuge and a hotspot for transnational organised crime and modern slavery. Increased securitisation by Thailand, China, and other actors may reduce crime on the Myanmar side. However, these broad measures risk threatening the vulnerable Myanmar population currently in Thailand or seeking refuge there. – Border Crackdown on Organised Crime Puts Vulnerable Myanmar Population in Thailand at Risk | FULCRUM
US
(Dan Grazier – Stimson Center) Members of Congress need independent analysis of operational testing results to properly oversee the weapons acquisition process, but new regulations from the Pentagon will likely prevent Congress from getting the data it needs. – Are We in a Pentagon Wars 2.0? • Stimson Center
US – Baltic
(Jacob Myers – Foreign Policy Research Institute) In an era marked by evolving geopolitical challenges and the imperative for robust defense capabilities along NATO’s Eastern Flank, the strategic partnership between the United States and Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia emerges as a beacon of collaborative security and collective capabilities solutions. As the Baltic countries navigate an increasingly complex landscape, assessing their military investments and strategic partners has heightened significance. This article delves into the symbiotic relationship between the United States and the Baltics, focusing on the multifaceted benefits derived from their defense collaboration. Highlighting the region’s burgeoning defense capabilities, its operationally relevant geography, and recent defense policies, the article explores how this partnership not only strengthens the security posture of all parties but also acts as a return on investment for US defense while simultaneously fostering regional stability in the Baltic region and strengthening NATO’s defense. – US-Baltic Defense Partnerships: A Return on Investment – Foreign Policy Research Institute
