LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Carlos Lopes – Overseas Development Institute) The debt situation in African countries has escalated to a critical juncture, as multiple factors compound the challenges they confront. Three pivotal elements significantly contribute to this predicament.
The African debt dilemma: unpacking the three unfavourable factors | ODI: Think change
ASEAN
(FULCRUM) An examination of recent trade and FDI flows shows that ASEAN has been benefitting from the reconfiguration of global supply chains as a result of intensifying US-China strategic rivalry. But these gains could well be reversed if the US-China intensifies and leads to a sharp decoupling of global supply chains.
The Impacts of Supply Chain Reconfiguration on ASEAN Economies | FULCRUM
Australia
(James Bowen – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The Australian government is shifting its funding from fossil fuels to green energy, yet it still allows foreign governments to finance fossil fuel projects in Australia. This incoherence impedes the nation’s transition to renewable energy and contradicts its climate goals.
Bougainville
(Kevin Pullen – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The Bougainville Peace Agreement, signed in 2001, ended a major Pacific conflict and set terms for Bougainville’s autonomy and a future independence referendum. Despite a 2019 vote strongly favoring independence, ongoing disputes have delayed progress, risking future tensions between Bougainville and Papua New Guinea.
Brunei
(FULCRUM) Brunei has the potential to drive economic growth in the eastern periphery of ASEAN. Thus far, however, the actualised gains from BIMP-EAGA have lagged behind its potential.
Brunei’s Strategic Role in Enhancing China-BIMP-EAGA Cooperation | FULCRUM
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Nathaniel Mason, Bertha Argueta – Overseas Development Institute) The third long-term goal of the Paris Agreement, Article 2.1(c), calls for “making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development”. Implementing Article 2.1(c) could transform finance, from the policies and spending of the largest governments to corporations’ and individuals’ investment options. Yet exactly what this involves continues to be debated.
European Union
(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The European parliamentary elections last weekend produced a headline analysis focused on victories by center-right and far-right parties. But overall the balance of power in Strasbourg remains with the centrist political forces, making unlikely any weakening of environmental and carbon pricing policies, as well as reforms in processing asylum seekers. Most important, the European Union’s strong support for Ukraine is not going to be undermined.
EU citizens vote mostly for continuity | PIIE
(Engjellushe Morina – European Council on Foreign Relations) As many pollsters predicted, the next European parliament will tilt further to the right. For the rest of this decade, populist and far-right parties will wield greater influence over the European Union’s strategic and legislative agenda.
Growing pains: The future of EU enlargement after the European Parliament election | ECFR
France
(Daniel Steedman – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The recent elections for the European Parliament have shown the ultra-conservative movement is in the ascendant and its most strident impact has been in France. Tough times are ahead for President Emmanuel Macron, particularly if the gamble of the election fails to pay off.
Gender Equality
(Nilima Gulrajani, Nerea Craviotto – Overseas Development Institute) When the Sustainable Development Goals were agreed in 2015, governments ambitiously committed to achieving gender equality as both a standalone and crosscutting objective.
Ringing the alarm bell? What recent ODA trends indicate for gender equality | ODI: Think change
Georgia
(Xanthe Murrell – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Russian military and political influence have dominated the past two centuries of Georgian history. Since its independence in 1991, Georgia has been trying to reduce its exposure to its great northern neighbour, however developments over the past month show that escaping Russia’s sphere of influence may be impossible.
Germany
(Kiel Institute for the World Economy) According to the Kiel Institute’s summer forecast, Germany is experiencing a moderate economic recovery. Economic output is expected to grow by 0.2 percent in the current year (spring forecast: 0.1 percent). The upturn will be driven primarily by a recovery in exports and consumption. However, there are no signs of strong economic momentum. The Kiel Institute expects growth of 1.1 percent in 2025 (spring forecast: 1.2 percent). The inflation rate is expected to level off at around 2 percent and the labor market will remain largely robust.
Humanitarian Action
(Megan Daigle – Overseas Development Institute) Humanitarian action is a sub-sector of foreign policy that has received comparatively little attention in feminist foreign policy debates to date. How, then, can states that have feminist foreign policies – or that are inspired by feminist ambitions – meaningfully apply feminist approaches to humanitarian action?
Where next for feminist foreign policy on humanitarian response? | ODI: Think change
India – Germany
(Abdullah Fahimi, Promit Mookherjee, Kira Vinke, Tim Bosch – German Council on Foreign Relations) Energy and climate partnerships between India and Germany are approaching a 20-year mark. Now, both countries are adopting green technologies and scaling up mitigation efforts more ambitiously, in line with global climate targets – including the goal to triple renewable energy capacities. In this policy brief, we look at the bilateral partnerships on climate change mitigation, assess how they align with the two countries’ foreign policy priorities and what a future partnership landscape could look like.
Toward an Indo-German Green Strategic Partnership | DGAP
Indonesia – China
(Leo Suryadinata – ThinkChina) Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto may have shed his “anti-Chinese” military persona to become a “pro-Chinese” diplomat.
Prabowo’s shifting stance on China and Chinese Indonesians (thinkchina.sg)
Israel – USA
(Jesse Ferris – Israel Democracy Institute) The roots of the crisis between Israel and the United States are supposedly in Rafah. But the key to resurrecting the relationship lies far from Gaza, between Moscow and Beijing.
Malaysia – China
(Peter T.C. Chang – ThinkChina) Chinese Malaysians are proud of China’s rise as a great power. But they have also forged a separate cultural identity quite apart from China’s efforts.
Chinese in Malaysia: Proud of China’s rise, yet fiercely Malaysian (thinkchina.sg)
Mexico
(Alejandro Werner – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The election of Claudia Sheinbaum as the first female president of Mexico on June 2 was widely hailed as historic, but markets were not so impressed. Following her victory to succeed her mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Mexican currency got battered, experiencing one of its largest weekly depreciation in years.
Remittances and tight monetary policy have helped keep the Mexican peso strong | PIIE
Northern Ethiopia
(Will Devine – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The conflict in Tigray and the broader regional post-conflict instability is an often forgotten and neglected humanitarian crisis. New reports from the New Lines Institute and the Inter-Agency Standing Committee should inspire the international community to act.
Pakistan
(Sanchita Bhattacharya – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The metropolis of Karachi is known as “Mini Pakistan,” with people from every part of the country uniting in a sharing of unique languages, cultures, cuisines, and customs. It is also a city with many problems, from water crises to electricity outages, and a population explosion that contributes to burgeoning crime.
Philippines – China
(Julio S. Amador III – ISEAS) The Philippines’ legal framework for new technologies needs to be properly aligned with developments in the digital domain in order to accommodate investments and economic opportunities in the long run. The Marcos Jr. administration’s digitalisation efforts are caught in the middle of the geopolitical contests between China and the United States. The Philippines’ digitalisation thrust is being conducted simultaneous with China’s implementation of its Digital Silk Road. The accommodation of Chinese technologies brings with it risks and consequences of concern to the state. The Philippines’ outdated legal framework is unable to meet the new concerns posed by the en masse entry of Chinese technologies. Philippine institutions need to be resilient from foreign influence while accommodating investments that can bolster its digital push.
Southeast Asia
(FULCRUM) To achieve their climate change goals, Southeast Asian governments need to harness the power of the private sector.
Climate Finance in Southeast Asia: Looking at the Private Sector | FULCRUM
South Korea – Japan – China
(Yeo Han-koo – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Only nine months after President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. met with the leaders of Japan and South Korea at Camp David to forge a “new era of partnership,” Japan and South Korea have pivoted to resume a separate trilateral partnership with China, which China hailed as a “new beginning.” These two trilateral frameworks would seem contradictory, and no doubt some are wondering whether South Korea and Japan are playing a double game with Beijing and Washington.
Economic cooperation by Korea-Japan-China trilateral could ease tensions | PIIE
Taiwan – Southeast Asia
(Hoang Thi Ha, Pham Thi Phuong Thao – ThinkChina) Taiwan is seeking to diversify its economy’s dependence on China towards a greater focus on Southeast Asia. This would yield benefits in more ways than one.
UK – Mauritius
(Vinitha Revi – Observer Research Foundation) Former British Prime Minister and current Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, David Cameron, disconcerted both Chagossians and the Mauritius Government when he appeared to U-turn on the UK’s policy regarding the ongoing negotiations on the future sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago. For more than a year now the UK and Mauritius have been engaged in constructive negotiations on the exercise of sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago. At the time, when the negotiations were officially announced (in November 2022), Cameron’s predecessor James Cleverly, had stated that the UK intended to resolve all outstanding issues and arrive at an agreement by early 2023.
What is holding back the UK-Mauritius negotiations? (orfonline.org)
USA
(Maurice Obstfeld – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Even if trade deficits were a major issue for the US economy, the idea that they should be reduced through levies on foreign purchases of US assets is pure folly. The likely effects of such a policy include higher interest rates and a fall in investment, leading to reduced demand, lower growth, and less innovation.
USA – South Korea
(Martin Chorzempa – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Soon after taking office in 2021, President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. threw his weight behind efforts to use federal government resources to strengthen US capabilities to produce cutting edge semiconductors to keep up with global competitors, especially China. The resulting Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act of 2022 is one of the world’s most ambitious industrial policies today, with subsidies, loans, tax credits, and support for research and development (R&D) estimated to total $79.3 billion over 2022–31. In fact, the CHIPS Act has been much more successful in attracting investment in the United States than anticipated, luring leading-edge chip producers who might otherwise have been tempted to invest in other countries. South Korean firms are major beneficiaries of CHIPS Act funds, but the pull of US subsidies is also a challenge to Seoul and governments in other allied countries, compelling them to redouble support to semiconductor firms in their own countries just to defend their current positions in the global chip value chain, let alone to build new capabilities.
The US and Korean CHIPS Acts are spurring investment but at a high cost | PIIE
USA – UK – European Union
(Therese Leine – Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) 2024 will be an important election year on both sides of the Altlantic. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are yet again batteling eachother in this years presidential race. Whatever outfall, we know it will have implications for Northern European security, in quite different ways. Biden has an understanding of the importance of NATO in Europe, however with a rising China, will US resources continue to shift towards the Indo-Pacific? Will a second Trump administration be as critical and skeptic towards its commitment to European countries and NATO? Either way, it looks like Europe needs to be ready to take further responsibility for their own security. UKs General Election will be taking place in July this year. Polls are showing that a political change may be on the steps, and that Labour is likely to become the new governing party. What will this mean for European security? How well would Labour’s Keir Starmer cooperate with Trump on matters of security and defence?
PODCAST: The votes that can shape European Security | NUPI