LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
(Tunde A. Alabi, Matthias Krönke – Afro Barometer) According to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2020), Africa’s first case of COVID-19 was recorded in Egypt in mid-February 2020. Six months later, the continent’s death toll exceeded 19,000, representing 3% of global COVID-19 mortality. As the virus spread across Africa, governments began to enforce national lockdowns and other restrictions to minimise the impact of the pandemic.
AUKUS
(Tom Corben – ASPI The Strategist) Recent efforts by Australia, Britain and the United States to harmonise their defence trade controls are welcome, if long overdue. But there are reasons to worry that AUKUS Pillar 2 may be carved out of the very regulatory framework intended to facilitate it. This is a problem if the development of advanced capabilities is to be a truly collaborative effort.
Australia
(Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist) China’s use of coercion to control critical mineral mining and processing projects, their output and even whole supply chains has motivated Australia and its strategic partners to take increasingly strong measures to secure alternative supply chains. Meanwhile, China’s state-linked companies continue to use multiple channels to manipulate markets at scale.
China
(Sophie Richardson – Just Security) Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hostility to cooperation by his government or anyone in China with United Nations human rights institutions and independent experts is well-documented. His diplomats excoriate U.N. human rights officials when they call out Beijing’s violations, blasting experts’ work as a “smear” and as violations of China’s sovereignty, and questioning their integrity. Just in late May, the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared the U.N.’s strongest-ever condemnation of Beijing’s human rights record — a detailed report on abuses of Uyghurs, drawing largely on Chinese government documents — as “illegal and void.”
UN Human Rights Expert Extends Chinese Government’s Impunity (justsecurity.org)
(Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has historically been a key instrument of state power in modern China, from the time founder Mao Zedong famously said that power flows “from the barrel of a gun.” Today, in the era of Xi Jinping, China is strengthening its defence diplomacy through Xi’s so-called Global Security Initiative (GSI) that envisions a growing role for the Party-state’s arms like the PLA and the Ministry of Public Security. The initiative is driven by both China’s aspirations to become the “defender of the Asia-Pacific order”, and its perception that the United States is doubling down on efforts with its allies to encircle China. This brief explains the most crucial aims of China’s defence diplomacy, and in particular, greater security cooperation through the GSI.
The Global Security Initiative: China Buttresses its Defence Diplomacy (orfonline.org)
Ethiopia
(Mulu Teka – Afro Barometer) Ethiopia stated its commitment to gender equality in its 1993 National Policy on Women, which aimed to establish frameworks within government entities and institutions to foster equitable and gender-sensitive public policies (Ministry of Women’s Affairs, 1993). The government reaffirmed its commitment in the 1995 Federal Constitution, which enshrines women’s political, economic, and social rights (Federal Negarit Gazzeta, 1995). Civil society activists have joined with government programmes and initiatives to pursue gender equality and women’s empowerment (Mehary, 2023; Network of Ethiopian Women’s Associations, 2021).
European Union
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) From 6-9 June, European citizens from the EU’s 27 member states voted to elect 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The European Parliament’s role involves approving, reviewing, and amending legislation, including approving the EU budget. The 2024 election came at a critical moment with over two years into the return of war in Europe, a myriad of economic woes plaguing the continent, global trade tensions, and farmer protests. This was also the first EU election to take place after Brexit, and the first since these began in 1979 that the United Kingdom (UK) was not part of. The elections resulted in a turnout of 51 percent, similar to the 50.7 percent recorded during the 2019 elections.
Key trends from the European Parliament Elections 2024 (orfonline.org)
European Union – Russia
(Armida van Rij – Chatham House) As the EU seeks to diversify its energy supply, Russian ‘gas-laundering’ could undermine its foreign policy objectives.
Georgia
(Rusif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) Reports are spreading that Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvili is secretly working with the Kremlin on a confederative structure for the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Despite the bold claims, some believe that the reintegration plans are merely a pre-election bluff by the Georgian Dream in trying to strengthen its position in the face of large-scale public protests. Turning Georgia away from Europe while incorporating two pro-Russian entities into a confederation would be a geopolitical success for Russia and give Moscow significant influence over Tbilisi’s domestic and foreign policy.
Georgian Dream Considers a Confederation With Breakaway Territories – Jamestown
Haiti
(Keith Mines, Kirk Randolph – Just Security) Many Haitians expressed genuine sympathy and shared loss when an American missionary couple, Davy and Natalie Lloyd, were killed by gangs alongside Jude Montis, the local director of the Missions in Haiti organization where they were working. Following a confusing few hours of attacks and counter-attacks by rival gangs on May 23, the tragic shootings and subsequent burning of the male bodies quickly made national news in the United States, in part because of the prominence of the couple – Natalie Lloyd is the daughter of Missouri State Representative Ben Baker and Davy Lloyd’s family is prominent in Oklahoma.
India – China
(Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) Now that the dust has settled with the conclusion of the 2024 parliamentary elections, it is time to take stock of India’s ongoing boundary confrontation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Notwithstanding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s conciliatory statement that India and China must restore peace and tranquillity on their contested boundary, all adversarial relationships, especially involving territorial disputes, hold the distinct possibility of culminating into a full-fledged war and the India-China relationship is no exception.
China’s massive attack against India: A looming possibility (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Mehrzad Boroujerdi – Atlantic Council) Due to the unexpected death of former President Ebrahim Raisi (1960-2024) in a helicopter crash on May 19, the Islamic Republic of Iran will hold presidential elections on June 28. Out of the eighty candidates who registered to run, the Guardian Council, a vetting body, approved only six presidential candidates. Five of these candidates are hardliners, with three already on various Western sanction lists, and one is a reformist. The election may proceed to a second round if the reformist candidate can successfully mobilize a significant portion of the discontented populace.
Mozambique
(Asafika Mpako, Stephen Ndoma – Afro Barometer) On 14 December 2023, influential Mozambican journalist, editor, and political commentator João Fernando Chamusse was killed outside his home in KaTembe, in Maputo province, apparently with a machete or gardening hoe (Africanews, 2023; UNESCO, 2023).
AD812: Mozambicans endorse media’s watchdog role but wary of media freedom – Afrobarometer
Russia – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka met in Minsk on May 23 and 24 to discuss synchronizing the second and third phases of their joint non-strategic nuclear exercises. The composition of forces and means involved in the exercises suggests that the Kremlin is conducting strategic command and staff maneuvers to simulate a first nuclear strike during a front-line offensive operation. The second phase of the non-strategic nuclear exercises demonstrated Moscow and Minsk’s focus is on creating a planning group for the nuclear defeat of Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Russia and Belarus Hold Joint Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises (Part Two) – Jamestown
Russia – North Korea
(Victor Cha – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The summit meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War. This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland. Amid front-burner issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the administration relegates this problem to the back burner at its own peril.
A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation (csis.org)
United Arab Emirates
(John Coyne, Henry Campbell – ASPI The Strategist) Great-power competition between the United States and China continues to weaken multilateralism and the rules-based order. Despite that, the system is far from dead. Autocratic states increasingly seek to interact with international institutions in ways that violate institutional rules and norms, as well as those of the wider global rules-based order. There are mixed motivations for doing so. For some states, there is arguably a broad agenda to undermine or fracture multilateral partnerships and the rules-based order. Unsurprisingly, minilateral or mini-multilateral groupings are forming to address specific economic or geopolitical challenges. To succeed, those groupings must target specific issues, build consensus and coordinate their members’ complementary strengths and resources to achieve shared goals. (…) The United Arab Emirates, through its strategic investments and partnerships, exemplifies this contemporary minilateral moment, particularly in the realms of clean energy and critical minerals.
UK
(Cathy Haenlein – RUSI) With politicians of both main UK parties having struggled with the department for decades, what challenges will an incoming home secretary face in 2024?
Ukraine
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland did not provide much substantive progress in signing a peace agreement, but the wide participation of the international community demonstrated a sharp rebuttal to the Kremlin’s efforts to hijack the agenda. Russian President Vladimir Putin hastily presented his own “peace plan” in the run-up to the conference, though his absolutist claims run contrary to the views of many countries in the Global South. Kyiv can build on the success of growing its international coalition by achieving steady gains on the battlefield and maintaining the export of grain supplies critical to global food security.
Ukraine Peace Summit Brings Disappointment and Hope – Jamestown
USA
(Brian Blankenship – Lawfare) Few aspects of U.S. alliances are as contested as defense burden sharing. While often associated with Donald Trump, U.S. efforts to pressure its allies to assume more responsibility for their own defense are as old as American alliances themselves. President John F. Kennedy, for example, warned in 1963 that the United States “cannot continue to pay for the military protection of Europe while the NATO states are not paying their fair share.”
The Burden-Sharing Dilemma in U.S. Alliances | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
USA – Ukraine
(Jack Goldsmith – Lawfare) National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that the Bilateral Security Agreement Between the United States of America and Ukraine signed yesterday by President Biden is a “real marker of our commitment, not just for this month, this year, but for many years to support Ukraine, both in defending against Russian aggression and in deterring future aggression so that Ukraine can be a sovereign, viable, thriving democracy,” and added that the agreement was “a signal of our resolve.” David Sanger in the New York Times reports that the agreement was “designed to demonstrate to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia that the United States and its allies had no intention of packing up and leaving.”
Some Thoughts on the Weak U.S.-Ukraine Security Agreement | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
USA – West – Russia – China
(Chatham House) Following the end of the Cold War, the US became a unipolar power in global affairs, shaping and leading the liberal rules-based order. US global supremacy, however, is now being called into question as the US, China and Russia battle for military, economic and technological supremacy on the world stage. Following the release of his recent book New Cold Wars, David E. Sanger, White House and National Security Correspondent, The New York Times will outline his thoughts on how America can defend itself and the West in the face of Russian and Chinese aggression.
Can America lead the West? (chathamhouse.org)
