LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Algeria
(Brahim Oumansour – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Par la position stratégique qu’elle occupe, l’Algérie se trouve au cœur des flux migratoires s’étendant du Sahel vers l’Europe. Alors que l’Alger a expulsé début 2024 près de 2 000 migrants issus d’Afrique subsaharienne vers le Niger, le contexte politique délétère au Sahel rend davantage complexe la question migratoire pour les États du Maghreb, et notamment pour l’Algérie qui n’est pas partie à un accord avec l’Union européenne (UE) pour endiguer les transits vers la Méditerranée. Quel est l’état de la politique migratoire algérienne et quels en sont les enjeux ? Comment l’Algérie coordonne-t-elle sa politique migratoire avec ses voisins ?
Algérie : une politique migratoire qui se durcit ? | IRIS (iris-france.org)
Artificial Intelligence and Innovative Technologies
(Gerald M. McMahon – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) If the Russia-Ukraine war is considered among the first true AI enabled battlefields, it likely offers only a snapshot of what future combat operations will look like as Artificial Intelligence is adopted into an array of military doctrines and applications. Even in the short period from 2022 to 2024, the impact of AI enabled drones, surveillance and targeting have shaped nation states’ ability to wage war, mitigate an adversary’s strengths and seize asymmetric advantages. The war has also shown the limitations of AI enabled warfare, particularly where the technology allows each combatant to have high levels of understanding of the battle space, reducing opportunities for breakouts and feints.
(Prateek Tripathi – Observer Research Foundation) Quantum computing (QC) forms one of the cornerstones of emerging technologies as we know them today. The technology has seen rapid progress over the years, but practical hurdles remain. The recent boom in Artificial Intelligence and the corresponding boost it has provided to classical algorithms also presents an additional hurdle for quantum algorithms. Countries like the United States, China, and Canada have made significant strides in QC and have managed to indigenously develop quantum computers. India, for its part, approved its National Quantum Mission in April 2023, and while it will likely provide the thrust that the technology needs to prosper within the country, it lays out objectives which are rather modest, and could benefit tremendously from a broader and more ambitious vision.
Quantum Computing: Current Scenario and Future Prospects (orfonline.org)
(Rajan Luthra, Tehilla Shwartz Altshuler – Observer Research Foundation) The need for forward-thinking Artificial Intelligence regulatory frameworks has never been more pressing. As nations grapple with the dual imperatives of nurturing innovation and safeguarding public interest, policy deliberations in the democratic world are oscillating between two opposing imperatives: the comprehensive regulation seen in the European Union (EU), described as “innovation-stifling”; and the laissez-faire, innovation-centric approach of the United States (US), largely driven by private sector interests. Meanwhile, the global discourse on AI regulations has long crossed borders and is now a multilateral geopolitical challenge.
Australia
(Jennifer Jackett – Lowy The Interpreter) Treasurer Jim Chalmers spoke at the Lowy Institute this month about the need to align Australia’s economic and security interests. Otherwise, he warned, Australia may fail to adapt to an international economic and technological environment permeated by geopolitics.
The cultural change needed to align security and economics | Lowy Institute
(Brendan Nicholson – ASPI The Strategist) The nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines to be built under the AUKUS agreement are on track to be the world’s most advanced fighting machines, says Australian Submarine Agency Director-General Jonathan Mead.
Bhutan
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, Basu Chandola – Observer Research Foundation) Earlier this month, media reports indicated that Bhutan had invested nearly US$ 500 million in crypto-mining facilities from July 2021 to June 2023, demonstrating the country’s increasing interest in the crypto-mining sector. Bhutan, a lower middle-income country in the Himalayas, has little economic diversification and nascent private sector development. With significant reliance on the hydropower, tourism, and agriculture sectors, diversifying revenue streams and developing a stable revenue base have often been debates of national importance. To expand its economy, the government is investing in the crypto-mining sector.
Bhutan’s crypto mining bets: Decoding economic and foreign policy implications (orfonline.org)
China
(GMF) A conversation between Bonnie Glaser and Tanner Greer discussing China’s techno-industrial policy under Xi Jinping.
China – Iran
(Think China) For now, the air crash leading to leadership changes in Iran is unlikely to impact China’s relationship with Iran, observes academic Alessandro Arduino. However, the situation could take a sudden turn, especially with Iran’s confrontation with Israel moving beyond the usual proxy war.
China keeps eye on post-Raisi government amid Middle East turmoil (thinkchina.sg)
China – Niger – Benin
(Samir Bhattachary – Observer Research Foundation) Niger’s relations with its neighbor Benin have been strained since a July 2023 coup in Niger, followed by border closures. Despite incurring huge losses, landlocked Niger was reluctant to open its border with Benin, citing security reasons. Last month, China sent foreign and energy ministry officials, along with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) executives, to resolve the dispute between the two nations. After China’s successful mediation, Niger has agreed to restore diplomatic relations with Benin and open up the border. Consequently, Benin also agreed to allow Niger to dispatch oil shipments using Benin’s port. While China is set to economically benefit from the deal, its successful mediation also marks Beijing’s emergence as a peacemaker in Africa.
Deconstructing China’s Interest in the Niger-Benin Rapprochement (orfonline.org)
Climate Action and Energy Transition
(Promit Mookherjee – Observer Research Foundation) As India strives to become a green hydrogen hub, it needs to exploit the export opportunities presented by Japan and South Korea.
(Sharon Sarah Thawaney – Observer Research Foundation) Climate change poses a grave threat to agricultural production, thus severely impacting food security. While climate change knows no gender, women are disproportionately vulnerable to its impact. This coincides with the emerging trend of feminisation of agriculture in the Global South. Globally, women constitute about 43 percent of the agricultural workforce, with more than two-thirds of employed women in South Asia engaged in agriculture, and over half of the farmers in eastern Africa being women.
European Union – China
(Think China) Chinese academic Zhang Yun explains why Europe’s strategic autonomy is not about parting ways with the US, and also why the more dynamic Sino-European ties are, the healthier China-Europe-US relations would be.
Europe’s strategic autonomy: A force for global good (thinkchina.sg)
(Think China) With trust in the US fading, Europe is increasingly open to deeper relationships with partners such as China, says US academic Dmitry Shlapentokh. However, Europe’s fractious nature allows China’s multi-pronged policy towards different European partners to play to the latter’s advantage.
China’s flexible partnership strategy is reshaping relations in Europe and the US (thinkchina.sg)
India
(Dinesh Kumar Pandey – Centre for Air Power Studies) Swarm drones are strategic weapons that have proven successful in conflicts such as the Russian-Ukraine conflict. They are a focus area as well as the foundation of the Indian Air Force (IAF) future Air Power strategy. In view of valuable lessons from these conflicts, the fourth largest air force in the world is making it its top priority to include these capabilities in its arsenal and, thereby, become a significant force of drone warfare in the global landscape.
Swarm Drones in India: A Growing Capability – CAPS India
(Renita DSouza – Observer Research Foundation) While the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement are meant to address global common challenges, optimal solutions to these challenges require an understanding of their local nuances. Cities account for more than 70 percent of both global GDP and Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) emissions. A course correction in relation to the development model being pursued will inevitably have to articulate an action plan for sustainable urbanisation and sustainable cities. According to the United Nations estimates (2005), cities constitute 55 percent of the population and are expected to rise to 68 percent by 2050. Urban centres in India accounted for 37.7 crore people in 2011, and this figure is projected to reach 56 crores by 2031. It is only fitting then that the locus of implementation of both Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate action should be planned urbanisation and thriving cities. Urban resilience has many faces. It represents the calibre of an urban ecosystem and its constituents viz. individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems to withstand, survive, persist, thrive, recover, adapt, transition or transform as a response to acute shocks or chronic stresses inflicting them.
Perspectives on financing urban resilience in India (orfonline.org)
Indonesia – South Africa – Malaysia
(Rem Korteweg, Vera Kranenburg – Clingendael) Strategic minerals are essential to the modern-day technologies that enable the digital transition, decarbonisation, and the development of advanced military systems. However, their extraction and processing is concentrated in a handful of countries, creating concerns about security of supply.
The good, the bad, and the ugly | Clingendael
ISIS – Al-Qaeda
(Kalicharan Veera Singam – Lowy The Interpreter) Deadly ISIS attacks this year in Iran and the Russian capital Moscow leave little doubt about the group’s efforts at revival. ISIS is now expanding in the Middle East, Central Asia and large parts of Africa, amid warnings it may even target the United States directly in the coming months. But it’s not just ISIS. Al-Qaeda, its rival terrorist organisation, is also in a better position to make a violent comeback.
Remember al-Qaeda? The danger hasn’t gone away | Lowy Institute
Israel
(Anat Shapira, Meir Elran, Mora Deitch – INSS) Public opinion polls conducted by INSS indicate a worrying trend: Against the backdrop of the continued fighting on several fronts, the hostage crisis whose solution is nowhere in sight, and the growing internal rift, the resilience of Israeli society is clearly declining.
After Seven Months of War, Israeli National Resilience Is Clearly in Decline | INSS
Middle East and the Gulf
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) One of the most coveted objectives in global diplomacy concerning disarmament and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is the establishment of a Middle East WMD-free zone (MEWMDFZ). Given the region’s tumultuous history marked by conflict and deep-seated distrust, coupled with instances of chemical weapons deployment in the past, the potential resurgence of WMD utilisation remains alarmingly plausible and concerning.
Establishing WMD Free Zones in the Middle East: If not now, then when? (orfonline.org)
Nepal
(Shivam Shekhawat – Observer Research Foundation) At the opening of the third edition of the Nepal Investment Summit (NIS) last month, Prime Minister Prachanda highlighted the ‘legal, strategic and geographical perspectives’ supporting Nepal’s position as an important investment destination. He subsequently appreciated his government’s investment-friendly policies as they passed new ordinances and amended existing acts in the run-up to the Summit. The Summit saw collective participation from leaders across the political spectrum who pitched Nepal as a profitable investment destination and assuaged concerns about the country’s political (in)stability affecting investor confidence. While sections of the government regarded the Summit as a success, the final commitments fell way short of what the Investment Board Nepal had hoped to bring in. Even as Nepal’s economic indicators have improved slightly, the potential of the commitments translating into concrete contributions in the near future will have to be watched.
Vying for investments: Nepal’s quest to become a ‘zone of investment’ (orfonline.org)
New Caledonia – France
(Denise Fisher – Lowy The Interpreter) It will be a long process for the deeply polarised local independence and loyalist parties to hold meaningful discussions after 14 days of violence, as the implications sink in of proposals put by French President Emmanuel Macron on his impromptu visit of 24 May.
Next steps for New Caledonia in the wake of Macron’s proposals | Lowy Institute
Quad
(Brahma Chellaney – ASPI The Strategist) When four of the Indo-Pacific’s leading democracies—Australia, India, Japan and the United States—revived the long-dormant Quad in 2017, their objective was clear: to create a strategic bulwark against Chinese expansionism and reinforce a stable regional balance of power. But the coalition is now adrift, and the security risks this poses should not be underestimated.
Is the Quad becoming a Potemkin alliance? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
South Africa
(Crisis Group) South Africans go to the polls on 29 May. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Pauline Bax outlines what is at stake in the elections and why South Africa’s domestic politics are more fragmented than ever.
Rising Discontent Pushes South Africa Toward a Tight Poll | Crisis Group
Sri Lanka – India – China
(Manish Vaid – Observer Research Foundation) Beneath the ever-shifting waves of global diplomacy, Sri Lanka emerges as the stage for a compelling narrative for the strategic expansion of China and the island nation’s cultural kinship with India, especially in sustainable development and renewable energy projects. Sinopec’s pioneering endeavour to construct its inaugural wholly-owned refinery on foreign soil is not merely an extension of China’s energy reach, but is a nuanced overture in what is traditionally considered as India’s sphere of influence. Yet, in the heart of this geopolitical dance lies India’s enduring ethos of nurturing regional harmony and growth through synergistic, community-focused efforts. The juxtaposition of China’s assertive stride into the energy domain against India’s altruistic energy diplomacy paints a vivid tableau of two nations charting their distinct trajectories in Sri Lanka.
India’s and China’s divergent energy paths in Sri Lanka (orfonline.org)
Taiwan
(Think China) Taiwanese academic Ho Ming-sho analyses the recent spate of protests against Taiwan’s opposition-led legislature. Like the Sunflower Movement protests a decade ago, young people and the spectre of China loom large, but some things have changed as well.
Where have Taiwan’s student activists gone in protests against opposition lawmakers? (thinkchina.sg)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
