Open newsletter – march 29, 2022 p.m.

IL NOSTRO TOPIC E’ LA “GEOSTRATEGIA DEL RISCHIO”

Proprio di fronte a una guerra di aggressione come quella avviata dalla Russia in Ucraina è più che mai necessario adottare il metro  del pensiero critico e complesso. Siamo di fronte al rischio di una amplificazione oltre misura del rischio stesso della guerra: e non ci riferiamo (soltanto) alla temuta escalation nucleare ma agli effetti che la guerra sta provocando, innescando altre guerre (non guerreggiate). Perché la guerra alle porte dell’Europa, ricordiamolo, si abbatte sul corpo sociale dell’Ucraina, nella vita di quel popolo, ma anche sulle nostre società. Rispettiamo profondamente l’opinione di chi è contrario a inviare armi all’Ucraina ma non è il nostro pensiero: anche se, è chiaro, si rischia di prolungare la guerra con tutto ciò che ne consegue. C’è una resistenza in atto e dobbiamo aiutarla. Ma, attenzione: provocare Mosca oltre misura non è la soluzione, anzi. La Russia è un player globale con il quale occorre fare i conti: tra le tante sfaccettature di questa guerra vi è anche quella di un (drammatico) gioco di posizioni. E poi, aggiungiamo, l’Occidente deve cominciare a fare autocritica. E a farla in maniera radicale e sostanziale. Le nostre società, dicevamo, dopo una pandemia che ha riguardato il mondo (e dalla quale non ci siamo ancora liberati) pagheranno un prezzo molto alto per le sanzioni imposte alla Russia. Ci auguriamo che non sia anche un prezzo geopolitico e che non ci troveremo dentro a una Europa “svuotata” e stretta tra il ritorno americano e la saldatura tra Russia e Cina. A proposito, occhi aperti su Taiwan … 

La nostra proposta culturale, e strategica, riguarda l’opzione di una de-escalation planetaria. Perché, con la giustificazione della guerra in corso (per restare all’oggi), si notano segnali allarmanti di un riarmo generalizzato. Non ci sfuggono le ragioni della difesa e della sicurezza, e degli impegni internazionali sottoscritti dai vari Paesi (penso al dibattito intorno all’ “adeguamento” delle spese militari nell’ambito NATO, Italia compresa), ma cerchiamo di guardare ai segni del riarmo e dell’incremento della violenza (anche terroristica) che sottolineano una pericolosa tendenza (dalla terra allo spazio) che, a nostro giudizio, va progressivamente superata. Siamo per una realistica cultura della pace per costruire la quale occorre passare inevitabilmente da un disarmo culturale e, di conseguenza, operativo. Il nostro approccio intende anche superare le sirene di un pacifismo sterile che, a ben guardare, non tiene conto dei rapporti di potere che costituiscono una parte essenziale del mosaico di realtà nel quale siamo immersi. 

Segnaliamo (lavoro quotidiano) alcune preoccupazioni strategiche (molto diverse tra di loro ma legate dal fil rouge di un progredire del riarmo e della violenza, intesi in senso complesso): l’intenzione della Gran Bretagna di aumentare il proprio impegno militare nell’Artico (Reuters); la sfida tra lo Stato Islamico in Khorasan e i talebani afghani ((RUSI); le minacce marittime a breve, medio e lungo termine che mettono in pericolo la sicurezza internazionale (RUSI); le cryptovalute come strumento di guerra (Chatham House)

TODAY:

• AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
• MARKETS
• RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)

Democratic Republic of Congo

• M23 rebels make advances in eastern Congo, March 29. By Reuters.  Rebels from the M23 group have gained ground in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo since they attacked two army positions near the border with Uganda and Rwanda on Monday night, a civil society member and a research group said. (read more)

Islamic State in Khorasan

• How Much of a Threat is the Islamic State in Khorasan?. By Antonio Giustozzi, RUSI. While several of its victories have gained media headlines, the Islamic State in Khorasan is struggling to compete with the Taliban in Afghanistan. (read more)

Japan – India

• Fumio Kishida’s Visit to India: Major Takeaways, March 29. By Rajaram Panda, VIF. The Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida paid a two-day official visit to India on 19-20 March 2022 for the annual India-Japan Annual Summit with his Indian counterpart Narendra Damodardas Modi. This was Kishida’s first visit to India as Prime Minister and the first meeting with Prime Minister Modi. The last India-Japan summit took place in 2018 in Tokyo. This was the 14th such summit between the prime ministers of the two countries. (read more)

Jordan – Syrian Refugees

• A life of isolation for Syrian refugees in Jordan’s Azraq camp. March 29. By Hanna Davis, Al Jazeera. Uniform rows of white caravans plotted neatly in the desert’s empty expanse are home to nearly 38,000 Syrian refugees. They are the victims of the now 11-year-long Syrian war who continue to wait at Jordan’s Azraq camp, their futures still uncertain and their livelihoods still dependent on donors’ generosity. (read more)

UAE – USA – Israel

Joint Statement on the UAE-U.S.-Israel Religious Coexistence Working Group to Advance Interfaith and Intercultural Dialogue and Counter Religious Intolerance and Hatred, March 29. By US Department of State. (read more)

USA – North Africa

• US moves to shore up unhappy allies on North Africa visit, March 29.  Sami Hamdi, Reuters. With the focus on strained relations between the United States and its Gulf allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it has been easy to overlook that discontent with the Biden administration has also spread to North Africa. Algeria has continued to remain deeply concerned about President Joe Biden’s refusal to reverse his predecessor Donald Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. Equally, Morocco has been frustrated that Biden does not intend to go beyond Trump’s “recognition”. (read more)

Yemen

• Gulf states hold Yemen talks despite boycott by the Houthis, March 29. By Al Jazeera. Gulf Arab states are gathering for a summit on Tuesday on the war in Yemen that the country’s Houthi rebels are boycotting because its venue is in Saudi Arabia, their adversary in the devastating conflict. The United Nations, diplomats, and others have pushed for another potential ceasefire to mark the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, similar to efforts for a truce over the past few years. (read news)

MARKETS

• Column: European smelter squeeze keeps zinc close to record highs, March 29. By  Andy Home, Reuters. London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc recorded a new all-time high of $4,896 per tonne earlier this month, eclipsing the previous 2006 peak of $4,580 per tonne. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Britain to boost military presence in Arctic, March 29. By Reuters. Britain plans to increase its military presence in the Arctic, defence minister Ben Wallace said on Tuesday, amid increased concerns among NATO allies about Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)
• Ships stranded in Ukraine as conflict slows UN rescue efforts, March 29. By Reuters. With more than 1,000 seafarers stranded on ships in Ukrainian ports and food supplies running low, the United Nations is pressing for their safe passage out of danger but security risks and disagreements are hobbling those efforts, maritime sources say. (read more)
• AfDB president: Ukraine war could trigger a food crisis in Africa, March 29. By Jack Dutton, Al Jazeera. In September 2012, when Akinwumi Adesina was Nigeria’s agriculture minister, the country witnessed one of the worst-ever floods. The deluge engulfed 30 of Nigeria’s 36 states, killing 363 people and displacing more than two million others. The floods washed away farmlands, settlements and critical public infrastructure such as roads, bridges and power installations. (read more)
• Russia says it will reduce military activity near Ukraine capital, March 29. By Al Jazeera. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have ended the first direct talks in more than two weeks in Istanbul, with Moscow saying it was ready to “fundamentally cut back” military activity near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv. Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin said the move was meant “to increase trust” in talks aimed at ending the fighting, as negotiators met face-to-face on Tuesday after several rounds of failed talks. (read more)
• E.ON and Australia’s FFI to explore green hydrogen shipments to Europe, March 29. By Christoph Steitz, Reuters. Germany’s largest energy group E.ON (EONGn.DE) on Tuesday signed a memorandum of understanding with the green power arm of Australian miner Fortescue Metals (FMG.AX) to explore shipping green hydrogen to Europe and help wean itself off Russian gas. (read more)
• Shares, bond yields jump after “encouraging” Russia-Ukraine talks, March 29. By  Marc Jones, Reuters.  World share markets and global borrowing costs surged on Tuesday, as the first face-to-face talks between warring Russia and Ukraine in nearly three weeks yielded signs of progress.(read more)
• Oil drops on positive signals from Russia-Ukraine peace talks, March 29. By  Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Reuters. Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous day after Russia called peace talks with Ukraine constructive and China’s new lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus hit fuel demand. (read more)
• Russia to buy back $2 bln in Eurobond-2022 for roubles, March 29. By Reuters. Russia said on Tuesday it was launching a buyback offer on its $2 billion sovereign Eurobonds maturing on April 4, its biggest debt payment of the year, and would make full payment to bondholders taking up the offer in roubles. (read more)
• UAE, Saudi say OPEC+ should not play politics, March 29. By Maha El Dahan, Riham Alkousaa and Yousef Saba, Reuters. The energy ministers of Saudia Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, key members of OPEC+, said on Tuesday the producers’ group should not engage in politics as pressure mounted on them to take action against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)
• U.S. Senators want Russia removed from U.N. Human Rights Council, March 29. By  Patricia Zengerle, Reuters. A dozen members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee urged President Joe Biden’s administration to push for Russia’s removal from the United Nations Human Rights Council, citing its invasion of Ukraine. (read more) Reuters
• Russia promises to scale down operations; Ukraine proposes neutrality, March 29. By Reuters. Russia promised at peace talks on Tuesday to drastically scale down its military operations around Kyiv and the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, while Ukraine proposed neutral status with international guarantees to protect it from attack. (read more)
• List of companies still buying Russian crude oil, March 29. By Al Jazeera. Several Western countries, including the United States, imposed an outright ban on Russian energy imports, following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, but major European economies dependent on Russian oil and gas have avoided drastic measures showing the divide in the European Union. Australia, Britain, Canada and the US have banned the import of Russian oil purchases in the wake of the Russian aggression, which has triggered the biggest refugee crisis in decades. (read more)
• Russia sanctions redraw shipping routes, cleaving East from West, March 29. John Psaropoulos, Al Jazeera. Western sanctions punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine are reorganising global trade along political lines, defying geography and efficiency. This new reality is creating a windfall for merchant shipping, but risks creating higher prices for European consumers and hunger for Africa. (read more) 
• Ukraine crisis: The war that is changing relations, rules, March 28. By Swaminathan Gurumurthy, VIF. Having pushed Ukraine into war, the US does not know how to save it. Having started it, Russia does not know where to end it. Having been pushed into the war, Ukraine does not know how to come out of it. It accuses its adversary Russia saying it is an invader and charges that its friends are betrayers. The UN Security Council keeps on meeting without any result. The global TV network for which the war is a reality show, a boon, keeps demonising Russia and valourising Ukraine. What the desperate Ukraine needs is a ceasefire. It is running from pillar to post — from India to Turkey to France, to Israel, to Japan — pleading with them to talk to Putin for a ceasefire. Everyone is talking to everyone else. (read more)
• Ukraine: As history returns to haunt the world, March 28. By Swaminathan Gurumurthy, VIF. In the early 1990s, Francis Fukuyama proclaimed that with the liberal democracy and the free market economy of the West finally emerging as a one-size-fits-all model for all nations, all conflicts that were the source of history had ended. That became the “moolmantra” of globalisation. Fukuyama ambitiously saw the convergence of the conflicting opposites — Free Market and Liberal State with Communism and Stateless Marxism — as the end of history leading to the perfect society-State envisioned by Hegel, the 18th century German philosopher. How? It calls for a recall of the short socio-political history since Fukuyama wrote his thesis. (read more)