LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) Risks to the future of the Whyalla steel mill should be prompting the federal government to develop contingency plans to ensure Australia’s continued capacity to manufacture basic steel products.
Bolivia
(Nicolás Devia-Valbuena – United States Institute of Peace) Political polarization and economic and institutional challenges could pave the way for violence next year. In 2019, similar warning signs led to a constitutional crisis, dozens dead and a fractured country. Five years later, there is still time to defuse another crisis before it happens.
Can Bolivia Avoid Renewed Election Violence in 2025? | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
China – South Korea – Japan
(Pratnashree Basu, Abhishek Sharma, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The leaders of China, South Korea, and Japan met in Seoul to attend the ninth trilateral summit meeting after a hiatus of four and half years. The summit meeting was scheduled at an important juncture when the shadow of a heightened China and the United States (US) contest is looming over the East Asian region. Simultaneously, the Indo-Pacific region is experiencing significant upheaval, characterised by escalating security challenges and increasing geopolitical fragmentation. Amidst the institutionalisation of the US, Japan, and South Korea summit in 2023, the resumption of the trilateral summit between China, Japan, and South Korea raises important questions. What is the relevance of the restart of the trilateral summit? And, how does the trilateral 2.0 help serve each member’s interest?
Reviving China-Japan-ROK trilateral: An attempt to hold common ground (orfonline.org)
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Elcano Royal Institute) Five years ago the Elcano Royal Institute conducted its first survey analysing the views of Spanish citizens regarding climate change. Since then, many surveys on the matter have been published. Following the pandemic, the energy crisis, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the first global stocktake (that analysed progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement), the Elcano Royal Institute has again conducted a survey that builds on and broadens the scope of its 2019 predecessor –which focused essentially on mitigation– by including water and adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
Citizens and the climate change – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
European Union
(Mark Leonard – ASPI The Strategist) In his speech at Sorbonne University in April, and again on his state visit to Germany in late May, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Europe is confronting its own mortality. Caught between Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Xi Jinping’s China and, potentially, Donald Trump’s America, Europeans urgently need to show solidarity; yet precisely because they do not feel secure, Europe appears to be fracturing.
What the Weimar Triangle could do for Europe | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Liana Fix – Council on Foreign Relations) Far-right advances in the European Parliament elections have destabilized politics in France, a longstanding pillar of the European Union, and highlighted fault lines in the bloc.
How Will the EU Elections Results Change Europe? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Atlantic Council) The tectonic plates are shifting. The European Parliament elections, which wrapped up Sunday, saw the centrist coalition remain in power—but far-right forces make striking, if uneven, gains across the continent. The epicenter of the political earthquake was France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party had double the support of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance—leading Macron to call for snap elections in the coming weeks.
European Union – Ukraine – Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attendance at the 80th anniversary of the Allied landing in Normandy highlighted Ukrainian and Western resolve against the real and immediate Russian threat to European security.
Many European leaders have seemingly learned their lesson from offering concessions to Putin, who excels at exploiting those who prefer compromise, as seen in the 2014 Minsk agreements. Western stakeholders look to redouble their contributions in repelling Russia’s aggression to maintain Ukraine’s resilience and ensure a just and sustainable peace in Europe.
Normandy Sends a Powerful Message to Putin’s Posturing – Jamestown
France
(Rémi Daniel – INSS) Following the publication of the initial results of the European Parliament elections, which saw Marine Le Pen’s far-right party win in France while Emmanuel Macron’s party faced defeat, the French president made a surprising announcement. He declared the dissolution of the National Assembly—the lower house of the French Parliament—and called for elections on June 30th and July 7th.
Flash Elections in France: Macron’s Big Gamble | INSS
Germany
(Julian Lanchès – International Centre for Counter-Terrorism) On 31 May 2024, the well-known anti-Islam activist Michael Stürzenberger was attacked during a demonstration of the Islamophobic group “Pax Europa” (BPE) in Mannheim. Before being shot by the police, the perpetrator stabbed Stürzenberger and four other BPE members multiple times, seriously injuring them, and killed a police officer who tried to intervene. Three days later, Germany’s Federal Prosecutor General (Generalbundesanwalt, or GBA), who is in charge of terrorist-related crimes, announced that he will take over the investigation due to “clear indications” of an Islamist motive. This analysis contextualises the attack by providing background information on Stürzenberger’s and the BPM’s anti-Islam activism, exploring recent trends in Germany’s Islamist milieu and a potential nexus between extremist violence and migration, as well as assessing possible implications for the European election and the risk of further Islamist and far-right radicalisation in Germany.
India
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) As the third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi commences, the world is watching keenly what changes and continuities emerge. While Modi might appear to be constrained by the compulsions of domestic politics, it is unlikely to have much of an impact on India’s external engagements. Modi has fundamentally altered the way India engages with the world, and that trajectory will continue to unfold over the next five years under his leadership. This is a critical moment in the global order and India’s centrality to the emerging order is now well-established. With the Modi government continuing in office, it offers India’s partners and adversaries a new opportunity to assess their ties with New Delhi.
Modi 3.0: What China, Pakistan And Maldives Can Expect (orfonline.org)
(Mannat Jaspal, Manjusha Mukherjee – Observer Research Foundation) – Carbon pricing has been described as a powerful and highly cost-effective instrument for reducing carbon emissions. However, implementing carbon pricing is not without its challenges, especially in emerging economies such as India. The two most important hurdles are insufficient capacity for designing and implementing the necessary instruments for carbon pricing, and the social implications of adopting them. This report identifies specific areas that must be addressed in the design of carbon markets, carbon trading, and carbon pricing in India and the Global South. This is all the more important because nearly two-thirds of all countries have indicated in their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that they are planning or considering the use of carbon pricing to fulfil their climate commitments.
Charting Pathways for India’s Carbon Market (orfonline.org)
Iraq
(Abbas Kadhim – Atlantic Council) Its 2014 general elections were lauded as proof of Iraq’s dedication to the democratization process initiated after the 2003 US invasion, marking another milestone on the road to consolidating democracy. The two-term prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, came to the negotiating table armed with a landslide electoral mandate. He also had some major achievements during his eight years in office, including the trial, conviction, and execution of dictator Saddam Hussein and the negotiated 2011 withdrawal of US forces that restored full Iraqi sovereignty. However, Prime Minister Maliki lacked popularity where it mattered: the political elite, who decided the post-election phase and did not favor giving him a third term in office. While all eyes were on the government-formation disputes, a terrorist group calling itself the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) raided the city of Mosul in Nineveh province on June 10, 2014.
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(International Centre for Counter-Terrorism) In the aftermath of the collapse of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s self-declared “caliphate,” the international community has grappled with the question of how to achieve accountability for crimes committed by the armed group. While prosecutions of captured ISIL fighters and other ISIL-affiliated individuals are occurring, they have to date overwhelmingly focused on terrorism-related offences without addressing core international crimes–including genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes–that may have been perpetrated by these individuals. Many prosecutions fall short of true accountability for the full dimensions of ISIL crimes and the totality of harm done to victims and survivors.
Myanmar
(Billy Ford – United States Institute of Peace) Myanmar’s conflict is uniquely multifaceted, but not intractable. The typical modes of international engagement in complicated internal conflicts — relying on elite dialogues — will not end the fighting in Myanmar. Sustained engagement with Myanmar’s resistance movement is a path to stability.
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is increasing efforts to work with foreign youth, journalists, and politicians through the federal agency Rossotrudnichestvo by offering training from leading Russian propagandists. Simultaneously, in Russia itself, raids on conscripts, illegal assignments to the front, and coercion to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense have become more frequent. Alongside ethnic Russians, the Kremlin has begun actively recruiting foreigners from Latin America, Central Asia, Africa, and South Asia to send to the front with promises of Russian citizenship and money.
Kremlin Uses Russian and International Youth to Expand Influence and Fight in Ukraine – Jamestown
Taiwan – China
(Maximilian G. Mooradian – Foreign Policy Research Institute) The Democratic Progressive Party victory in the recent Taiwanese presidential elections has been met with anger from the Chinese Communist Party, while the Kuomintang success in the Legislative Yuan has been met with optimism by Beijing. How China feels about the success of the rising Taiwan’s People’s Party success in the Legislative Yuan is more of a mystery. The outcome of the Legislative Yuan election will make passing legislation very challenging for this new Democratic Progressive Party president due to not securing a majority against the Kuomintang and to the influence the Taiwan’s People’s Party has gained in this election cycle. This new government will shape the future of Taiwanese politics, and Taiwan appears to be coming closer to a potential conflict with China.
(Jennifer Staats, Ph.D. – Naiyu Kuo – United States Institute of Peace) Lai’s inaugural address signaled much policy continuity but a tougher stance on China. Beijing responded with fierce rhetoric and military pressure, which is likely to continue. Debates and protests over controversial legislative reform bills suggest four years of government division.
Ukraine
(Razumkov Centre) In an interview with military expert Oleksiy Melnyk we discussed the US-authorized use of HIMARS against Russian positions near Belgorod. Melnyk notes the turn in the Western support, which can stabilize the situation in the Kharkiv direction. Despite the Russian threats, the probability of using nuclear weapons remains low. Further strikes on Kurskaya and Rostovskaya oblasts may follow.
(Razumkov Centre) The Peace Summit, scheduled to take place in Switzerland on 15-16 June 2024, is Kyiv’s strategic initiative of regional and global scale and significance. After being presented in the autumn of 2022, the peace summit has become one of the main foreign policy priorities that Ukrainian diplomacy has been persistently promoting across the globe, at all levels and international platforms. However, it should be borne in mind that the summit, albeit important, but only initial stage of a complex political and diplomatic process. Moreover, it is an integral part of ending the war in Ukraine. Therefore, the summit’s success depends on many other factors, including the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to resist russian intervention, international assistance, and the determination and unity of allied countries.
2024-PAKT-10-ENGL.pdf (razumkov.org.ua)
Ukraine – NATO
(Ian Brzezinski – Atlantic Council) At a press conference in Prague on May 31, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised that the upcoming NATO Summit in Washington will provide Ukraine with a “bridge to NATO membership.” It has already been a long road to get to this point. The Alliance first asserted back in 2008 that Ukraine will become a NATO member state. Sixteen years later, failure to fulfill that pledge has been disillusioning to Ukraine and has contributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence that he can resubordinate the country. Another empty promise of membership or a bridge to nowhere would be counterproductive. To be credible, a bridge to NATO membership must be built in a way that institutionalizes Ukraine’s integration into the Alliance’s structures starting now.
USA – Israel
(Eldad Shavit, Chuck Freilich – INSS) US President Joe Biden’s decision to present the “Israeli plan” for a hostage deal and a ceasefire between the IDF and Hamas appears to have been motivated by an assessment that Israel’s military campaign had run its course. Despite the administration’s view that Hamas is responsible for the delay in reaching a hostage deal, Biden clearly believed that revealing the Israeli proposal would encourage Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision—notwithstanding the bitter domestic arguments in Israel between those who support the deal and those who vehemently oppose it. The US administration itself does not currently have a viable alternative in the likely event that the proposals outlined by Biden do not come to fruition and the fighting continues. Should that happen, the United States would likely cast the blame on Hamas. At the same time, it is feasible that the frustration felt by some administration officials and by Biden himself at Israel’s behavior could intensify and could lead to actions that are not in accord with Israel’s interests. Therefore, the decisions that Israel takes in the near future, especially after Biden unveiled the details of its proposed ceasefire deal, must be guided by the goal of improving Israel’s strategic position. The prime minister would be well advised to use his upcoming address to the US Congress to present a clear vision for a political strategy, which would allow the Israeli–Saudi normalization process to move forward under US auspices, while forging a broad front with moderate Arab states against Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance.”
Was Biden’s Speech an Opportunity or an Obstacle for Israel? | INSS
USA – Niger – Sahel
(United States Institute of Peace) The U.S. reached an agreement with Niger’s military junta to close two military bases in the country in what amounts to a “tactical setback” for counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. But the closure also “forces the U.S. to review its military posture in the region,” says USIP’s Joseph Sany, adding “there may be other options.”
Joseph Sany on the U.S. Withdrawal from Niger | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
USA – Taiwan
(AJ Caughey – Chicago Council on Global Affairs) Despite Illinois’s trade ties with Taiwan, other Midwest states have taken steps that Illinois hasn’t to deepen their government’s relationship with Taipei.
How Midwestern states are courting Taiwanese investment | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
