BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
- La Belt and Road Initiative. What’s next ? (CFR, James McBride, Noah Berman, and
BENIN
- Cresce la violenza jihadista in Benin (The Jamestown Foundation, Dario Cristiani). On January 8, voters in Benin went to the polls to select the new Parliament. The overall turnout was not particularly high at 38.66 percent, but it was still higher than the last parliamentary election held in 2019, where only 23 percent of the country voted. This number was low in part due to opposition parties boycotting the election. Jihadist Violence Grows in Benin
FILIPPINE
- I primi 180 giorni dell’amministrazione Marcos (JIIA, Kazuhide Ishikawa). More than six months have passed since the new Marcos administration took office in the Philippines on 30 June 2022. The following is an analysis of the direction taken by President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos, who succeeded the “unconventional” President Rodrigo Duterte, in the 180-day runup period of his administration and of its significance in terms of foreign relations. For an overview of the presidential election and its international implications, please refer to the February 2022 JIIA Strategic Comments (2022-01). The Japan Institute of International Affairs (jiia.or.jp)
- Le Filippine sull’orlo della vittoria contro Abu Sayyaf (The Jamestown Foundation, Jacob Zenn). Abu Sayyaf’s origins date to the period after the Soviet army left Afghanistan in 1989. However, its most lethal attacks began occurring in the years surrounding 9/11 and reached a peak in the 2010s. The U.S. designated Abu Sayyaf as a terrorist group in 1997. Now, more than 25 years later, the Philippines has gained the confidence to declare victory against the group (fas.org, October 21, 2003). Brief: The Philippines on the Verge of Victory Against Abu Sayyaf
INDIA
- La leadership globale dell’India: un’agenda rinnovata e un multilateralismo riformato che influisce sull’ordine mondiale emergente (VIF, Debasis Bhattacharya). India’s ascendancy as UN Security Council President in December 2022 for the second time in a span of only fifteen months remarkably reflect its growing global recognition as a formidable and credible power that is committed to strengthen the tenets of reformed multilateralism and transparent global governance in shaping the trajectory of emerging world order. India’s Global Leadership: Revamped Agenda and Reformed Multilateralism Impacting Emerging World Order
- La dottrina strategica dell’IAF (ORF, Diptendu Choudhury). The biggest challenge faced by air power across the world is its complexity and the consequent difficulty in understanding it. Churchill’s observation over eight decades ago “Air Power is the most difficult of military force to measure or even express in precise terms” holds especially true in the Indian context. Aerospace power: IAF’s doctrinal overview
INDIA – FRANCIA
- L’evoluzione della partnership strategica tra Delhi e Parigi (ORF, Harsh V. Pant, Ankita Dutta). The celebration by India and France of 25 years of their strategic partnership (January 26) presents an important opportunity for both to retrospect their relations. Exploring the blue in the India-France partnership
INDONESIA
- L’Indonesia riconosce le violazioni dei diritti umani commesse in passato, ma la giustizia per le vittime non è ancora stata raggiunta (AIIA, Dirk Tomsa). On 11 January 2023, the Indonesian president made international headlines when he acknowledged that several cases of gross human rights violations had occurred in Indonesia since the 1960s. He expressed regret that these atrocities had occurred and indicated he would initiate compensation for the victims of the state-sanctioned violence. Indonesia Acknowledges Past Human Rights Violations, but Justice for Victims Remains Elusive
MALI
- Mali: Evitare la trappola dell’isolamento (Crisis Group). In a strategic shift, the Malian authorities have turned away from France and chosen Russia as their main military ally. Relations between Bamako and other Western and regional partners are also deteriorating. Mali and its partners should work to rebuild more balanced diplomatic relations. Mali: Avoiding the Trap of Isolation
NIGERIA
- Mitigare i rischi di violenza nelle elezioni nigeriane del 2023 (Crisis Group). The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote. Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections
- Il mandato del presidente nigeriano Buhari termina con Boko Haram che non è “tecnicamente sconfitto” (The Jamestown Foundation, Jacob Zenn). When Muhammadu Buhari was elected Nigerian president in 2015, he notoriously stated that Boko Haram was “technically defeated” (punchng.com, February 6, 2016). Brief: Nigerian President Buhari’s Term Ending with Boko Haram Not “Technically Defeated”
PAKISTAN
- Il riemergere dei Talebani pakistani nello Swat (The Jamestown Foundation, Akbar Notezai). Since late 2022, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the “Pakistani Taliban,”—an alliance of jihadist networks that have fought the Pakistani state since 2007—has been regrouping. The Pakistani Taliban’s Reemergence in Swat
RUSSIA
- Un deficit di bilancio record preannuncia il crollo dell’economia russa? (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Alexandra Prokopenko). January’s figures for Russian budget spending look so alarming that they have prompted talk of the impending collapse of the economy. The first month of 2023 saw the deficit reach a record 1.8 trillion rubles. Spending grew by 58 percent compared with January 2022, when there was a budget surplus of 125 billion rubles ($25 billion), while revenues fell by over a third. Does a Record Budget Deficit Herald the Collapse of the Russian Economy?
USA
- Rafforzare la risposta pandemica degli Stati Uniti in una società libera (CSIS, Report by CSIS Global Health Policy Center , Brown University Pandemic Center , and COVID Collaborative). The Covid-19 pandemic imposed unprecedented challenges upon U.S. federal, state, and local officials, and it inspired important and lifesaving successes. Most disturbingly, the pandemic response in the United States featured stark failures in early rapid response, preparedness, execution, and messaging. American Democracy and Pandemic Security: Strengthening the U.S. Pandemic Response in a Free Society
USA – CINA
- Dopo il pallone di Pechino, cosa succederà ai legami tra Stati Uniti e Cina? (United States Institute of Peace, Carla Freeman, Ph.D., Rosie Levine). Amid a low point in the relationship, the balloon incident injects more mistrust and damages the opportunity to resume regular dialogue. After Beijing’s Balloon, What’s Next for U.S.-China Ties?
