LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
(Vaishali Jaipal – Observer Research Foundation) After coming to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban’s assurances contingent on ‘moderation’ and ‘inclusive rule’ indicated a purported shift from its first stint as a draconian Islamic theocracy in the mid-1990s. While the larger international community met these pronouncements with scepticism, interpreting them as a calculated strategy to appease the group’s way into global recognition; their unprecedented nature hinted at a silver lining—hoping for a possible softening of the Taliban’s ideology in the backdrop of its geopolitical compulsions.
The myth of moderation and media freedom in Afghanistan (orfonline.org)
Artificial Intelligence
(Abi Olvera – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) In 2018, Singapore planned to embed facial recognition cameras in lampposts for nationwide monitoring. But rapid advances in battery technology and 5G networks enabled a pivot to an even more powerful and nimble surveillance system—mobile sensors and cameras capable of observing citizens and catching them in the act of littering, with artificial intelligence handling the data analysis. Around the same time, Malaysia partnered with China’s Yitu Technology to provide police with an AI-powered facial recognition system linked to a central database for real-time identification of citizens from body camera footage.
Australia – Indonesia – Papua New Guinea
(Ridvan Kilic – ASPI The Strategist) With relations between Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) strong, the time is right for Australia to advocate for a high-level Australia–Indonesia–PNG trilateral strategic partnership.
Azerbaijan – Israel
(Vali Kaleji – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan has taken a more conservative stance on the war in Gaza, maintaining relations with Israel, on the one hand, and avoiding declaring Hamas a terrorist organization, on the other. Baku’s position represents a break from the responses of Türkiye, Pakistan, and many other countries in the surrounding region. As Israel is the main supplier of Azerbaijan’s advanced weapon systems, Baku hopes to maintain economic and especially military cooperation with Tel Aviv to solidify its position in the South Caucasus.
Challenges in Azerbaijani-Israeli Strategic Relationship After October 7 – Jamestown
Belarus
(Manfred Huterer, Astrid Sahm – SWP) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 also called the sovereignty of Belarus into question. The country served as a launching pad for the attack, thus becoming a co-aggressor. However, relations between Minsk and Moscow changed the longer the war has lasted. Belarusian leader Lukashenka has increasingly acted like a self-confident war service provider toward Kremlin boss Putin. At the same time, he has been able to avoid any direct military involvement and has sought to preserve his chance at serving as a mediator. Nevertheless, Belarus’ structural dependence on Russia has continued to increase in many areas. Right now, this gradual loss of sovereignty can still be reversed. In order for this to remain the situation, the EU and Germany must not write the country off.
Belarus: Sovereignty under Threat – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
China
(Hanns Günther Hilpert – SWP) In China, money, currency and payment transactions are manifestations of state sovereignty and political power. The primary objective of Chinese monetary policy is to maintain domestic stability, expand the scope of its own influence internationally, and reshape the global financial and monetary system to make it more compatible with the structures of the Chinese one-party state.
China’s Currency Campaign – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
China – Africa
(Malancha Chakrabarty – Observer Research Foundation) China’s economic rise has often been described as an economic miracle. The country experienced an average annual growth rate of 10 percent from 1979 to 2018 and lifted over 800 million people out of poverty. The World Bank described China’s economic success as “the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history”. China’s rise also had far-reaching impacts on other developing regions, notably Africa, a region which occupied a marginal position in the global economy. Between 2000 to 2015, Africa, witnessed unparalleled growth in trade, investment, and development finance flows from China.
Shrinking Chinese demand, loan volumes weaken Africa’s growth prospects (orfonline.org)
China – Australia
(Lowy The Interpreter) Repeating an aggressive action four times shows intent. In February 2022, a Chinese warship directed a dangerous laser at an Australian Defence Force aircraft. In June 2022, a Chinese air force fighter dropped chaff in front of an ADF patrol jet, endangering it. In November 2023, a Chinese warship injured Australian navy divers with a sonar burst. In May 2024, a Chinese air force fighter dropped flares in front of an ADF helicopter, imperilling it.
Deterring China’s military violence against Australians | Lowy Institute
European Union
(Chatham House) Between 6 and 9 June 2024, across the European Union, just under 400 million people voted in European Parliamentary elections to elect 720 MEPs. These elections matter, deciding who represents EU citizens in the European Parliament – and kickstarting negotiations for the new president of the European Commission, the powerful body that proposes policies and legislation for the EU.
European Union – China
(Atlantic Council) The tariff race is picking up speed. On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed new tariffs on China-made electric vehicles (EVs) of up to 38.1 percent starting in July. An ongoing European Union (EU) investigation concluded that Chinese automakers such as BYD benefit from unfair subsidization that is “causing a threat of economic injury” to European companies. The news comes after US President Joe Biden announced tariffs of up to 100 percent on Chinese EVs in May.
Europe is gearing up to hit Chinese EVs with new tariffs. Here’s why. – Atlantic Council
Food Security
(Bradley R. Ringeisen, Clarice de Azevedo Souza, Elizabeth Njuguna, Pamela C. Ronald – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Nearly one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stem from the global food system. Approximately 70 percent of these emissions are associated with agriculture and land-use change activities (FAO 2022). Even if we were to stop all other sources of emissions, global food consumption alone could account for nearly a one-degree Celsius rise in temperature (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century (Ivanovich et al. 2023).
France
(Tara Varma – Brookings) The European Parliament’s (EP) elections took place over three days, from June 6 to June 9, 2024, across the European continent. Final projections indicate that there might be more continuity than expected in the European legislative body’s new parliamentary formation—but the results incited a political earthquake in France.
The European Parliament elections have upended French politics | Brookings
France – New Caledonia
(Denise Fisher – Lowy The Interpreter) French President Emmanuel Macron made a surprise decision at the weekend to dissolve France’s national assembly and set new elections for 30 June and 7 July. While Macron’s move followed a defeat in European parliamentary elections, France’s political calendar will have a profound impact on its faraway Pacific territory and Australia’s closest eastern neighbour, New Caledonia.
France’s legislative elections and complications for New Caledonia | Lowy Institute
Germany
(Constanze Stelzenmüller – Brookings) There are two ways of looking at the outcome of the European Parliament elections in Germany. On the European level, the fact that Germany’s conservative opposition (the Christian Democratic Union, CDU) came in first helped the European People’s Party (EPP), the transnational grouping of Europe’s mainstream center-right parties, to gain seats. That makes the EPP likely to form the core of the coalition that will elect the European Union’s leadership for the next five years, probably reappointing EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who comes from the CDU herself. Despite the far right’s electoral gains across much of Europe, the EPP’s hold on power will provide some much-needed continuity and stability at a time of global uncertainty and strategic risks for Europe.
Stability for Europe, tensions at home: Germany’s paradoxical European Parliament vote | Brookings
G7
(John J. Hamre, Victor Cha, Emily Benson, Max Bergmann, Erin L. Murphy, and Caitlin Welsh – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The global governance system is in disarray. The UN Security Council is frozen by geopolitical rivalry and two wars. Other institutions such as the G20 and World Trade Organization (WTO) are underperforming. Time does not allow for building a new governance institution—but requires the “bending” of existing ones to meet the moment. This CSIS report speaks to the global need to elevate the Group of Seven (G7), a bloc of industrialized democracies—the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union—to foster a more stable and predictable world order. The report offers recommendations on reimagining the future G7 as a critical institution of global governance, focused on agenda setting, institutionalization, and membership of the body.
“Bending” the Architecture: Reimagining the G7 (csis.org)
India
(Sanjay Pulipaka, Aditya Sinha – Lowy The Interpreter) India’s 2024 parliamentary election have reaffirmed the strength and vibrancy of the country’s democratic process, showcasing the electorate’s power to shape their government. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), secured an electoral victory. While the BJP did not secure a full majority – it won 240 of 543 seats – Prime Minister Narendra Modi is back in office for a third term, leading a coalition government.
India’s election is done. What about running in the next one? | Lowy Institute
Iran
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted last week to censure Iran for failing to cooperate fully in the inspection regime set up under the 2015 nuclear deal to make Iran’s program more transparent and to set limits that would prevent redirection of nuclear material to make weapons. But the deal has failed for many reasons, not just Iran’s interference with IAEA inspectors.
Middle East and the Gulf
(Chatham House) The ongoing war in Gaza continues to affect the Middle East with significant implications for its security and stability, as well as domestic dynamics within regional states. Jordan has been one of the countries most influenced by the continuing conflict and regional tensions. The Kingdom and the Palestinians are intimately linked historically, culturally, and politically, and every event in Palestine – good and bad – reverberates throughout Jordan.
Israel-Palestine: The implications for Jordan (chathamhouse.org)
NATO
(Andrea Kendall-Taylor – Council on Foreign Relations) The war in Ukraine marks a new era of instability in Europe. Countering Russia’s efforts will require a stronger, more coordinated NATO.
Reverberations From Ukraine | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Senior Biden administration officials are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin has more surprises in store for them regarding Ukraine, timed to disrupt and upstage NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary summit in Washington from July 9 to 11.
A Putin summer surprise for NATO? Worries are growing. – Atlantic Council
Norway
(Emmanuel Hache – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Il y a quelques jours, 8,8 millions de tonnes de terres rares ont été découvertes au Sud-Est de la Norvège. Éléments chimiques essentiels dans la transition bas-carbone, écologique et numérique, cette découverte pourrait rebattre les cartes en termes d’autonomie et de sécurité minérale européenne alors que la Chine concentre près de 69 % de la production minière mondiale et que l’Union européenne reste par conséquent extrêmement dépendante d’approvisionnements extérieurs. Quelle peut-être l’influence de cette découverte sur le marché mondial des terres rares ? Comment le continent européen peut-il en bénéficier ?
Nuclear Arms Control
(Stephen J. Cimbala, Lawrence J. Korb – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Prospects for Russian–American strategic nuclear arms control seemed unfavorable in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Russia’s later suspension of formal participation in discussions about New START and possible post-New START options. If official conversations about strategic nuclear arms limitations between the United States and Russia (and possibly China) do occur, however, a different conceptual framework for negotiating parties might prove fruitful. One such framework focuses on the concept of minimum deterrence, which would call for nuclear arsenals that are smaller than the two major nuclear superpowers now possess, but large enough to allow sufficient retaliatory strike capability as to retain strategic stability. In examining some of the broader politico-military and arms control contexts for the viability of any minimum nuclear deterrence regime, we consider “how much is enough” with respect to US and Russian strategic nuclear forces. We acknowledge that the rise of China as a strategic nuclear superpower presents challenges for nuclear-strategic stability and a minimum deterrence regime, but we believe that these challenges are not insurmountable.
Quad
(Vivek Mishra, Sanjeet Kashyap – Observer Research Foundation) In the backdrop of China’s grey-zone coercion tactics against the Philippines, the recent meeting of defense ministers of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines underscored a new Pacific deterrence imperative: the Squad. For some, the development projects the Quad in a paler light, given its hitherto role as the pre-eminent regional minilateral initiative to balance China. The Quad is often perceived as an organisation with largely a public goods provision mandate. The Squad may have brought a security paradigm in the picture that the Quad lacks. The question whether the Quad should be militarised has been debated ad nauseam and now seems nudged by the ‘Squad’ proposition.
The case for militarising the Quad just got nudged (orfonline.org)
Rohingya
(Nathan Ruser – ASPI The Strategist) In the late evening of Friday 17 May 2024, Rohingya neighbourhoods in the town of Buthidaung in Myanmar’s Rakhine State were disturbed by an ominously familiar sight. Armed gunmen had come to their doors and ordered them to leave before the gunmen set their houses alight. If they refused, they were told, they would be burnt with their house.
Russia
(Dmitry Gudkov, Vladislav Inozemtsev, Dmitry Nekrasov – IFRI) This report assesses both the scale and the roots of the outward migration from the Russian Federation coinciding with Putin’s turning of Russia into an aggressive authoritarian state.
Russia – Chechnya
(The Jamestown Foundation) Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in Chechnya due to their contributions to Russian manpower on the frontlines. A transition of power in Chechnya would carry with it a significant potential for instability as the sudden changes in leadership, underlying tensions, and power struggles could destabilize the region’s power dynamics.
Moscow May Be Planning to Sideline Ramzan Kadyrov in Chechnya – Jamestown
South Korea – Indonesia
(Yokie Rahmad Isjchwansyah – ASPI The Strategist) Indonesia should seize a chance of improving its defence-industry capability by stepping up cooperation with South Korea. With four defence companies among the world’s top 100, South Korea shows that Indonesia can achieve its objective of lifting the scale and skills of its state-owned defence companies, which as a group are known as Defence Industry Indonesia (Defend ID).
Thailand
(Barthélémy Courmont – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Malgré l’espoir incarné par les élections législatives de mai 2023, le marasme politique continue de se poursuivre en Thaïlande où l’ombre de l’autoritarisme et de l’armée, qui a pris le pouvoir de force en 2014, continue de planer. Alors que le pays reste affaibli économiquement depuis la pandémie de Covid-19, le secteur du tourisme ayant été fortement touché, la Thaïlande doit également faire face à de nombreux défis sociaux et démographiques. Au niveau diplomatique, Bangkok continue de maintenir une politique équilibriste en maintenant de bonnes relations avec les pays occidentaux, notamment la France ou les États-Unis, tout en veillant à ne pas froisser Pékin. Quelle analyse peut-on dresser sur la situation économique et sociale thaïlandaise ? Quelle politique étrangère pour Bangkok ?
Thaïlande : marasme politique et défis multiples ? | IRIS (iris-france.org)
Ukraine
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) At the dawn of a new term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a unique opportunity to play peacemaker at an event seen by many in the West as the most important peace summit since World War 2. More than two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv is holding a Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on 15-16 June. It seeks to win support for a 10-point peace plan that requires Russian troops to leave its territory and cease hostilities.
India as a peacemaker at the Global Peace Summit? (orfonline.org)
(Oleksandr V Danylyuk – RUSI) With Russia increasingly pressing its numerical advantage, Ukraine and its partners need to devise a new strategy for strengthening Ukraine’s defence if they are to avoid playing to Russia’s strengths in an attritional conflict.
(Gwendolyn Sasse – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) The different dimensions of Russia’s war against Ukraine will be at the forefront this week in a series of events around the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, taking place on June 11-12, and the Summit on Peace in Ukraine, happening on June 15-16 in Switzerland.
Zelensky’s Diplomatic Offensive – Carnegie Europe (carnegieendowment.org)
(Nicole Gonik, Eric Ciaramella – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In recent months, Ukraine’s battlefield prospects have seemed some of the bleakest since the early days of the invasion, despite the long-awaited approval of the U.S. aid package. One would expect that Ukrainian society would have pessimistic assessments of the war’s trajectory. But a Carnegie-sponsored opinion poll conducted in mid-March 2024—just weeks after Ukrainian troops were forced to retreat from Avdiivka and amid heavy Russian bombardment of Ukraine’s energy grid—found the opposite to be true.
War and Peace: Ukraine’s Impossible Choices – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
USA
(Bridget R. Kane, Stephen Webber, Katherine H. Tucker, Sam Wallace, Joan Chang, Devin McCarthy, Dennis Murphy, Daniel Egel, Tom Wingfield – RAND Corporation) U.S. critical infrastructure supports the prosperity of the nation and its people. It permeates the daily lives of citizens, underpinning the safety and security of the general public and ensuring the economic well-being of the nation, yet the health of these assets, systems, networks, and facilities is often taken for granted. In this report, the authors analyze threats and hazards to critical infrastructure and examine the vectors by which an adversary might conduct attacks against the homeland. They also look at the cascading effects of an attack and other impacts resulting from infrastructure age and maintenance and from weather challenges, and they offer characterizations of various types of threat actors and vectors to raise awareness of systemic vulnerabilities and threat environments that can affect critical U.S. infrastructure.
Threats to Critical Infrastructure: A Survey | RAND
Uzbekistan
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has emphasized the development of the country’s rare-earth mining sector as a primary goal of his government due to the country’s massive reserves. Uzbekistan has begun to work with the European Union, United States, and United Kingdom to develop strategic cooperation for the extraction of rare-earth elements. The success of Uzbekistan’s rare-earth industry may provide more options for avoiding overreliance on Russian reserves, but it is unclear how the bottleneck of Chinese processing capabilities will be circumvented.
Uzbekistan to Increase Rare-Earth Production – Jamestown
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
