LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
NATO: Trump alza i toni, l’Europa cerca una propria difesa (Carlo Rebecchi)
Ricerca complessa in tempi ‘nuovi’ / Complex research in ‘new’ times (Marco Emanuele)
IA sovrane. Ogni Paese deve pensarci, e in fretta, dice il Ceo di Nvidia (Marzia Giglioli)
Il Medio Oriente, crocevia del mondo. Carlo Rebecchi dialoga con l’Ambasciatore Mario Boffo
USA: guerra ai deepfake. La paura è un caos politico. Fuori legge i falsi robocaller elettorali (Marzia Giglioli)
La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
(Arian Sharifi – RUSI) In late 2015, the Afghan government’s Office of National Security Council was tasked with leading the development and implementation of a National Countering Violent Extremism Strategy; a decision rooted in both domestic and international developments.
Benin – Togo
(Ian Heffernan, Salavi Comlan Apollinaire-Fabrice) An examination of the contrasting experiences of Benin and Togo in navigating national and global crises over two decades.
Macroeconomic Resilience in Benin and Togo – SAIIA
Indonesia
(Ben Bland – Chatham House) Prabowo Subianto used the endorsement of the popular outgoing president to win power – but is unlikely to govern as Jokowi’s ‘proxy’.
‘Continuity’ Prabowo means change for Indonesia | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Malawi
(Judith Kumwenda – SAIIA) Malawi’s youthful population presents a demographic advantage. Properly educated and skilled youth can contribute to innovation, entrepreneurship and economic diversification.
Malawi: Youth-Centric Policies for Future Prosperity – SAIIA
Near East
1 – (Mohammad Reza Dehshiri – Valdai Discussion Club) The “Al-Aqsa Storm” operation is unprecedented, unlike any battle since the foundation of the Israeli regime. It has revealed that the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians cannot come to an end, as the two-state solution is neither the choice of the Israeli regime nor the option of the Hamas liberation movement.
Why the Battle of Gaza Has No End? — Valdai Club
2 – (Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy – Valdai Discussion Club) The global uncertainties raise questions that will need to answered to be able to discern the direction the world will take for the rest of the 21st century. It is in this wider context that the future of the Middle East, including the Arab World, needs to be considered.
The Arab World in 2024 — Valdai Club
3 – (Pavel Shlykov – Valdai Discussion Club) Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, which possess comparable military-strategic potential, financial and economic resources and cultural/ideological authority, saw in the emerging situation in the Middle East opportunities to satisfy their leadership ambitions. Their actions to strengthen their positions, which are predominantly unilateral in nature and do little to accommodate each other’s interests, have largely shaped the framework of regional competitive multipolarity. Moreover, the arena of their confrontation has often turned out to be countries which were internally weakened by the Arab Spring and rapidly approaching the category of “failed states.”
Competitive Multipolarity in the Middle East and the Role of Turkey — Valdai Club
Nigeria – Ghana
(Chukwuka Onyekwena, Edafe Oluwatosin Deborah – SAIIA) While Nigeria and Ghana have significant economic interlinkages and have therefore displayed some similarities, there are also evident divergences in their responses to economic shocks.
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience: A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria and Ghana – SAIIA
Pakistan
(Whit Mason – RUSI) Despite its leader being in jail, Imran Khan’s party came out on top in Pakistan’s recent elections. While the army may not like the outcome, any attempt to form a government without a popular mandate will only exacerbate Pakistan’s myriad problems.
Uganda
(Faridah Nakanwagi – SAIIA) In Uganda, young people with some level of education are more likely to be unemployed, since there is a bias towards wage-paying jobs in the formal sector.
Uganda: The Future of Work for Youth – SAIIA
Uganda – Rwanda
(Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Emmanuel Keith Kisaame – SAIIA) Most of the economic crises that Uganda and Rwanda experienced in the period 2000–2020 were caused by exogenous factors, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Assessing the Macroeconomic Resilience of Uganda and Rwanda – SAIIA
UK
1 – (Claudia Wallner, Jessica White, Simon Copeland – RUSI) Recent high-profile cases from national and local security forces, as well as critical reviews of internal cultures, indicate that the UK’s security forces are under threat from far-right extremism.
2 – (Jessica White, Simon Copeland, Claudia Wallner – RUSI) A year on from reviews which identified how systemic discrimination was damaging the reputation and response of UK public services, institutions like the London Fire Brigade are struggling with how to change deeply engrained cultural dynamics.
USA
(Tobias Sytsma, James V. Marrone, Anton Shenk, Gabriel Leonard, Lydia Grek, Joshua Steier – RAND Corporation) The resilience and stability of the U.S. financial system is critical to economic prosperity. However, the rapid pace of technological and geopolitical change introduce new potential threats that must be monitored and assessed. The authors of this report explore emerging and understudied threats to the financial system, focusing on risks from social media, advances in artificial intelligence, and the changing role of economic statecraft in geopolitics.
USA – China
(Christina Pazzanese – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) If the U.S. wants to protect the global order and avoid armed conflict with China, its biggest geopolitical rival, the nation’s leaders need to use every tool in its national security toolbox as deterrence, including smart, effective economic strategies.
Pushing back against China — without igniting war — Harvard Gazette
Perspectives
Climate Action – (Brian Blankespoor, Susmita Dasgupta, David Wheeler – World Bank blogs) The climate crisis is getting worse, with both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and COP28 in its final agreement emphasizing the urgency of steep greenhouse gas emissions reductions to keep global warming below 1.5°C as overshooting 1.5° C might have a catastrophic impact. Given that urban areas may account for over 70 percent of global CO₂ emissions, many public policy analysts began advocating for public investment in low-carbon mass transit, particularly in countries that are not yet locked into high-carbon growth paths, as one of the solutions. Until recently, however, data scarcity has hindered assessment of mass transit’s impact on CO₂ emissions.
Digital Media – (Kara Brisson-Boivin, Matthew Johnson – CIGI) Digital media tools have become essential to acting on and communicating about civic issues, and networked platforms have become the primary fora for political discussion and action.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
