From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China, Pacific, Russia-Georgia-Europe, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan, US, US-Middle East
China
(Gregory Poling, Monica Michiko Sato – East Asia Forum) In 2024, Southeast Asian nations countered China’s increased aggressiveness in the South China Sea, managing to make modest gains despite the rise in tensions and military presence. China’s attempts to control the area have not deterred states — including the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia — from developing oil and gas projects, fortifying defences and consolidating international support, representing a strategic setback for Beijing. – Beijing treads water in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) During China’s National People’s Congress session last week, the press conference by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi attracted considerable attention. Wang, a member of the all-powerful ruling politburo of the CCP, is now the most senior official to speak to international media at the event. (A traditional annual news conference by China’s premier was discontinued last year). Wang’s speech naturally intrigued China-watchers: how would he address US President Donald Trump’s unconventional approach, whether to Washington’s alliances, the country’s position on brokering peace in Ukraine, or China’s next move on the South China Sea? – The Chinese foreign minister’s press conference showed Beijing is still reticent about its role as a global leader | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Pacific
(Charles Hawksley – East Asia Forum) The Pacific Islands region faced multiple challenges in 2024, from violent unrest in New Caledonia to devastating natural disasters in PNG and Vanuatu. Climate change impacts accelerated while electoral changes reshaped several governments. As China and Western powers competed for influence, Pacific nations demonstrated increasing diplomatic agency. Key developments included the Tuvalu–Australia climate refugee agreement and regional security initiatives, highlighting the region’s growing strategic importance. – Shifting tides in the Blue Pacific | East Asia Forum
Russia – Georgia – Europe
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Foreign Intelligence (SVR) has been accusing the European Union of conducting influence campaigns in Georgia through funding anti-government protests. EU officials denied these claims, calling them a disinformation campaign aimed at undermining EU-Georgia relations. The ruling Georgian Dream party has escalated tensions with the European Union by accusing EU Ambassador to Georgia Paweł Herczyński and other European diplomats of political interference.
The Georgian government is leaning toward strengthening its relations with Russia despite its EU candidate status. Local observers warn that Georgian Dream may seek Russian support to retain power even through military intervention. – Russian Intelligence Strategizes to Keep Georgian Dream in Power – Jamestown
Saudi Arabia
(Elizabeth Dent – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Riyadh has demonstrated the desire and ability to play a bigger diplomatic role in the Middle East and beyond, so Washington should support these aspirations—while taking care to balance relations with other Gulf states and ensure that Riyadh contributes constructively. – Saudi Arabia’s Emergence as a Diplomatic Broker | The Washington Institute
Syria
(Middle East Institute) In recent days, Syria suffered the worst violence since the toppling of the regime of Bashar al-Assad last December. Deadly clashes erupted last week in former Assad strongholds between Syria’s new Islamist rulers and insurgents loyal to the former president, resulting in sectarian massacres and hundreds of deaths over four days, rehashing past tragedies of civil war in Syria. The interim Syrian government claimed the successful completion of the military operation, but what impact will these sectarian clashes have on the course of Syria’s transition and the perceived legitimacy of the country’s interim leaders? – Is Syria Descending into Renewed Civil War? | Middle East Institute
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) A spate of attacks involving loyalists to former ruler President Bashar al-Assad has spurred concerns of a return to sectarian warfare in Syria, but there is still a path for the country’s new rulers to find stability. – Syria’s Surge in Violence Does Not Signal a New Civil War—for Now | Council on Foreign Relations
Tajikistan – Kyrgyzstan
(Nurbek Bekmurzaev – The Jameston Foundation) Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached a historic agreement on border delimitation on February 21, marking the end of decades-long disputes and military conflicts. The agreement also covers transport and water resource division, reinforcing regional stability. Officials in Bishkek and Dushanbe highlight the mutual concessions of the agreement. Kyrgyzstan views it as a diplomatic achievement, while Tajikistan sees it as a crucial step for national security, particularly amid tensions with Afghanistan. The border agreement’s completion will eliminate a major threat of instability in Central Asia and remove a sticking point between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Reach Historic Border Delimitation Agreement – Jamestown
US
(Atlantic Council) The second Trump administration has embarked on a novel and aggressive tariff policy, citing a range of economic and national security concerns. This tracker monitors the evolution of these tariffs and provides expert context on the economic conditions driving their creation—along with their real-world impact. – Trump Tariff Tracker – Atlantic Council
US – Middle East
(Ghaith al-Omari – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) After boycotting Trump in his first term, Ramallah now seeks to improve the relationship, giving Washington an opening to address the PA’s shortcomings without distracting from other Middle East priorities. – Resetting U.S. Relations with the Palestinian Authority? | The Washington Institute
(Brian Katulis – Middle East Institute) The global economic moves by President Donald Trump’s second administration dominated the headlines and overshadowed everything else on America’s foreign policy agenda this past week, including issues in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the Trump administration continued to keep the region high on its agenda, with the president sending a letter to Iran’s supreme leader and his team directly engaging with the Palestinian group Hamas, which the US has designated as a terrorist organization. This ongoing engagement on the Middle East’s top two strategic questions, Iran and Arab-Israel affairs, contrasted with America’s hands-off approach to Syria, which saw some troubling violence this past week. – Trump brings his foreign policy improv act to the Middle East | Middle East Institute
(David Makovsky – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) To maintain pressure on Hamas and preserve U.S. deterrence at a sensitive point in Gaza discussions, the Trump administration needs to lock in its diplomatic coordination and public messaging with Israel. – Short-Lived U.S.-Hamas Talks Are a Cautionary Tale for Washington and Jerusalem | The Washington Institute
