LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa – European Union
(Ameer Chughtai – European Council on Foreign Relations) At the 2023 Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris, French president Emmanuel Macron stated that “policymakers and countries shouldn’t ever have to choose between reducing poverty and protecting the planet”. This may be true, but if European policymakers want to make significant advances on climate finance flows in Africa, they need to make some hard choices about where to direct their resources.
Out of focus: Making progress on climate financing for Africa | ECFR
BRICS
(Alicia Garcia-Herrero – East Asia Forum) China’s economic size and increasing assertiveness in foreign policy give it a dominant position in BRICS, which is reflected in intra-bloc trade flows and in the bloc’s foreign policy positions. The future of BRICS is uncertain given its heavy dependence on China’s economic future and the deteriorating sentiment towards China among its members. India’s fast growth and increasing geopolitical heft also pose a challenge for the continuation of BRICS as a China-centric grouping.
China continues to dominate an expanded BRICS | East Asia Forum
Cambodia
(Chhay Lim, Nory Ly – East Asia Forum) In 2023, Cambodia’s political landscape underwent a significant change as leadership passed from former prime minister Hun Sen to his son, Hun Manet, who has since strived to diversify Cambodia’s foreign policy and economic partnerships. Despite facing challenges such as global economic stagnation and a reliance on China, Hun Manet has been engaging diplomatically with numerous new and existing partners, which could culminate in a lasting legacy for himself and greater economic stability for Cambodia.
Cambodia makes new friends on the international stage | East Asia Forum
China
1 – (Yu Tao – East Asia Forum) Contrary to its external portrayal, Christianity has had a deep historical and cultural impact on modern China. But in the mid-20th century the Communist Party suppressed the religion due to perceived imperialist ties. The growth of Protestantism in the post-Mao Zedong era led to the emergence of ‘house churches’, independent bodies avoiding official oversight due to stringent state regulations, creating a struggle for space, resources and unrestricted faith practice. These churches implicitly call for a re-evaluation of the state’s relationship with religious institutions, demanding the right to practice their faith as they see fit.
Navigating faith and freedom in China’s house churches | East Asia Forum
2 – (Neil Thomas – The Jamestown Foundation) The readout from the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference (CFAWC) at the end of December indicated an emerging strategy of countering US leadership by mobilizing the support of Global South countries while dividing the West on contentious global issues. Recent changes in official discourse and new language that now forms part Xi’s messaging to visiting politicians makes clear Beijing’s enhanced conviction of the need to actively shape and influence world events. The CFAWC meeting signaled a turn away from the more abrasive forms of “wolf warrior” diplomacy. Xi’s desired shift in rhetoric does not mean that PRC diplomats will be less assertive in communicating their preferences overseas.
3 – (Matthew J. Dagher-Margosian – The Jamestown Foundation) Xi Jinping is unequivocal that US-China AI cooperation is contingent on Western AI technology flowing into the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Broken promises from past US-China technology transfers suggest the PRC will once again use US technology to strengthen censorship and surveillance domestically and then export these technologies to aid other authoritarian regimes. The emerging framework of “AI sovereignty,” born out of a previous framework for “cyber sovereignty,” emphasizes a nation’s right to regulate AI according to its own values and interests. The PRC positions itself as a leader in this discourse. The PRC is lobbying for artificial intelligence (AI) sovereignty globally and is already exporting AI technologies to other authoritarian regimes, raising concerns about the potential impact on global democracy and human rights.
CCP Cyber Sovereignty Contains Lessons For AI’s Future – Jamestown
China – Kyrgyzstan
(Niva Yau – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing practices public memory management beyond its borders to neutralize critics by coopting elites and suppressing independent voices. Despite protests, Kyrgyzstan has consistently supported Beijing’s interests, particularly regarding a land transfer and the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Beijing continues to incentivize ruling elites in Kyrgyzstan and elsewhere to prioritize PRC interests over national interests, fostering economic dependence through trade deals and investments.
China’s Public Memory Management in Kyrgyzstan – Jamestown
China – Russia
1 – (Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) PRC aid to Russia is multidomain and underpins much of Moscow’s ability to continue to wage war in Ukraine. Attempts have been made to institutionalize the Sino-Russian relationship, deepening the military aspect in particular. The relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin nevertheless remains its driving force. Readouts from Sino-Russian and Sino-Ukrainian meetings suggest that Beijing is not wholly aligned with Moscow’s, and there is clear opposition to the war within sections of the PRC elite. This may mean little if Xi Jinping cannot be persuaded to signal a change in approach.
PRC Support Underpins Russia’s War Against Ukraine – Jamestown
2 – (Filip Jirouš – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian-cultivated circles overlap with People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence networks. These intersections include politicians on both extremes of Europe’s political spectrum, and across countries which include Belgium, Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. “Daniel Woo,” a PRC state security officer, is a key figure connecting many of the network’s members. Woo has successfully influence debates in the German Bundestag and paid Belgian lawmakers to disseminate propaganda. State security networks further overlap with observer missions, lending legitimacy to Russian-organized elections in occupied territories in Ukraine. The networks extend to political parties leading polls for some of this year’s European Parliament and EU member state elections. Some action has already been taken. The Czech government sanctioned Voice of Europe, a media organization controlled by Russia through Viktor Medvedchuk, an oligarch charged with treason in Ukraine. Subsequently, Polish authorities arrested its legal representative.
PRC Exploitation of Russian Intelligence Networks in Europe – Jamestown
European Union
(Lea Fanku – European Council on Foreign Relations) Despite the European public’s overwhelming support for climate action, the European Union’s ambitious policies, such as the European Green Deal, face an uncertain future. In the upcoming European Parliament election in June, ECFR polling projects that the EU’s green agenda could be watered-down by swing to the far-right. If mainstream candidates do not promote climate policies correctly in their campaigns, voters are likely to deem other issues, such as cost of living, more important and the ‘greenlash’ against the EU’s expensive decarbonisation policies will only gain more traction.
European Union – Middle Corridor
(Alberto Rizzi – European Council on Foreign Relations) Before the war in Ukraine, 86 per cent of land trade between Europe and China transited through Russia along the so-called Northern Route, a set of railways extending from China’s northern border to Belarus and the European mainland. But European sanctions against Moscow have made the route much less attractive for global trade, and depending on Russian infrastructure and railway services to import goods from China is a strategic vulnerability that Europe is keen to get rid of. Instead, the European Union is hoping to reduce its reliance on Russian territory by leading the development of a shorter alternative route through central Asia, called the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). Better known as the Middle Corridor, the TITR is a network of transport routes that replicates the ancient Silk Road, extending from China to Europe across Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus into Turkey.
Risk and reward: Why the EU should develop the Middle Corridor trade route | ECFR
Japan
(Ayaka Hiraki – East Asia Forum) The deepening relationship between the private economy and national security is prompting Japan to bolster its export control policies to safeguard sensitive technologies and restrict technological access by competitors, particularly China. This faces challenges, such as adapting to the rapid advancement of dual-use technologies and continued technology leakages to Russia. This means Japan must implement more flexible export controls and reshape domestic laws, namely enforcing stricter regulations on a smaller range of products.
Japan’s export controls require reassessment | East Asia Forum
Near East
1 – (William F. Wechsler – Atlantic Council) Iran’s supreme leader took his time to consider how and where to respond to Israel’s strike in Damascus on April 1. The United States and Israel should similarly take time to consider what he likely intended to accomplish with this weekend’s retaliation and what messages he was trying to send.
2 – (Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) The unprecedented Iranian attack on Israel presents U.S. officials with mounting challenges in trying to contain the conflict and maintain a deterrence against Iran and its allies.
Iran Attack Means an Even Tougher Balancing Act in the Middle East (cfr.org)
3 – (Ray Takeyh – Council on Foreign Relations) The Iranian regime’s first direct attack on Israeli territory could trigger further exchanges between the two sides and raises the most serious risk of regionwide conflict since the Israel-Hamas war began six months ago.
Iran Attacks on Israel Spur Escalation Concerns | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Solomon Islands
(Parker Novak – Atlantic Council) While this month’s elections in India and South Korea will draw more global attention, it’s worth keeping an eye on an election in a small South Pacific nation. The Solomon Islands, with a population of 724,000, has come to have an outsized impact on geopolitics due to its strategic position within the Melanesian archipelago and its 2022 security agreement with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). On April 17, the country will hold pivotal parliamentary and provincial elections.
USA – Saudi Arabia
(Robert Einhorn – Brookings) The Biden administration has responded positively to Saudi Arabia’s interest in civil nuclear cooperation with the United States—both because such cooperation is a Saudi condition for the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, which the administration strongly supports, and because it believes a bilateral civil nuclear partnership can bring important benefits to both countries. However, such cooperation needs to be pursued in a way that can realize those benefits without increasing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
A way forward on a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement | Brookings
Perspectives
1 – (Atlantic Council) With global growth predicted to remain “well below” its historical average—at slightly above 3 percent—“making the right policy choices will define the future of the world economy,” International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday.
2 – (Robin Brooks – Brookings) Global economic security is impaired due to weak sanctions implementation and high debt. Weak sanctions implementation means Russia’s economy was not hit with maximum force. This may be undermining the deterrent effect of sanctions, elevating geopolitical risk ahead. High debt—especially in Europe—stands in the way of a strong response to external shocks because such shocks invariably spark a standoff over how to pay for any crisis response.
Threats to global economic security: Weak sanctions implementation and high debt | Brookings
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
