From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China-Africa, India, India-Canada, Japan-Philippines, Kashmir, Lebanon, Rohingya-Bangladesh, USA, USA-China-Panama Canal, USA-India, Global Strategies
China – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharyan – Observer Research Foundation) In 2022, when China established its first political training school in Tanzania, the Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School, its motivation was unambiguous. With an estimated cost of $40 million, the school was a tool for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to shape the future political leaders of Africa following the Chinese principles of governance. Therefore, it is no surprise that the 120 official members of the school’s first cohort were from countries with long-standing historical ties to China. These countries continue to be ruled by the liberation parties that came into power through their pre-independence struggles. The countries include South Africa, Mozambique, Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania. In fact, these six countries, along with Botswana, are also part of the Former Liberation Movements of Southern Africa, an informal coalition meant to help one another address governance challenges and stay in power. – China’s long game in Africa
India
(Sadan Khan – Observer Research Foundation) The unconventional practice of stubble burning continues despite repeated calls from environmental scientists for its cessation. Within just two months from 15 September to 15 November, 23,505 cases of farm fires were recorded in six states, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi. The winter harvest season in November and December is one of the major contributors to air pollution. For reasons such as failed crop output, time and money constraints, and low market prices, farmers set fire to their crops to quickly clear their fields. In cold weather and low wind conditions, a meteorological phenomenon known as temperature inversion makes it difficult for pollutants to disperse and rise, resulting in thick smog. The toxic fumes from the agricultural fields when combined with already high carbon emissions in the city exacerbate air pollution in the national capital, Delhi, thereby causing adverse impacts on health and huge economic losses. – Stubble burning in India: Causes, consequences, and solutions
India – Canada
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) Finally, Justin Trudeau decided that he will have to quit to save himself any further ignominy. His politics and his career have been adrift for a while now with no seeming way out of the morass he was sinking into with each passing day. It must have seemed to him that he was being abandoned not only by his own party, his nation but also by the wider world. For someone who had risen as the darling of global media just about a decade back, the fall from grace of being lampooned as the governor of the 51st state of America has been equally scathing. So, when Trudeau announced that he was resigning and that he would stay on in office until his Liberal Party can choose a new leader, and that parliament would be prorogued until March 24, it was hardly greeted with a shrug. – For An India-Canada Reset, Trudeau Really Had To Go
Japan – Philippines
(Pratnashree Basu, Don McLain Gill – Observer Research Foundation) Shared concerns over China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific are pushing Japan and the Philippines to foster a strategic partnership, particularly in the maritime domain. This brief examines the evolving dynamics of the Tokyo-Manila strategic relationship in the context of a tenuous Indo-Pacific. It traces the evolution of Japan’s defence engagement from post-Second World War pacifism to taking on a more proactive regional security role. Similarly, the Philippines’ shift from internal security to territorial defence has made Japan a crucial partner. Tokyo’s capacity-building initiatives, including the transfer of defence equipment and joint military exercises, have contributed to the enhancement of Manila’s maritime security. This brief argues that while this partnership has been driven by mutual concerns over China’s regional ambitions, it also represents the broader imperative of maintaining stability and the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific, particularly within the framework of Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision. – Strategic Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: The Case of Japan and the Philippines
Kashmir
(Ayjaz Wani – Observer Research Foundation) On 16 October 2024, Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the chief minister of the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), a space marked by significant regional divisions in political preferences. This divide was evidenced by the considerable variance in the area-wise performance of political parties in the three-phase assembly election held during September-October 2024. The National Conference (NC) and Indian National Congress (INC)-led alliance won 40 out of 47 seats in the Kashmir province, securing a vote share of 41.08 percent. Conversely, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dominated in Jammu, winning 29 seats with a vote share of 45.23 percent. – Article 370 and Kashmir: Navigating a path to peace
Lebanon
(Nicholas Blanford – Atlantic Council) Ending a presidential vacuum that had lasted almost two and a half years, Lebanon’s 128-seat parliament elected General Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), as the tiny Mediterranean country’s new president. – Can Lebanon’s new president stabilize a country in crisis? – Atlantic Council
Rohingya – Bangladesh
(Mallaika Thapar, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) The Rohingya crisis, involving over a million refugees in Bangladesh, is one of South Asia’s most pressing humanitarian challenges. This crisis was exacerbated following a brutal crackdown on the Rohingya Muslims by Myanmar’s military in 2017, escalating into a prolonged refugee crisis. Bangladesh faces immense pressure to accommodate this vulnerable population while dealing with domestic and political challenges. The crisis has now reached a critical juncture, marked by escalating internal pressures within Bangladesh, a massive political transition, and growing border clashes with Myanmar. These developments raise important questions about the effectiveness of regional and international responses. – The Rohingya crisis: Bangladesh’s political challenges and its humanitarian implications
USA
(Varun Sivaram – Council on Foreign Relations) The wildfires scorching the region around Los Angeles are likely to be the most expensive in history. But, future climate change-related disasters will certainly top them in cost. Here are some steps to limit the damage. –Five Climate Realism Insights on California’s Wildfires | Council on Foreign Relations
USA – China – Panama Canal
(Gregg Curley – Atlantic Council) President-elect Donald Trump’s recent rhetoric on territorial ambitions in the Western Hemisphere—ranging from retaking the Panama Canal and buying Greenland to annexing Canada—has generated significant attention and speculation about the incoming administration’s plans. Among these imperialist ambitions, the reclamation of the Panama Canal stands out as a focal point of immediate and relevant strategic significance. On Tuesday, Trump deliberately refused to rule out the use of military force, preserving maximum leverage in what has so far been a one-sided negotiation. – The US is right to be concerned about China’s influence over the Panama Canal – Atlantic Council
USA – India
(Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) The United States, under Donald Trump’s second presidential term, is expected to maintain a focus on strengthening security and defence ties with India, leveraging the country’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region, and in countering China’s influence. Although challenges for New Delhi could arise in the form of trade and immigration policies that previously affected the Indian tech workforce, bilateral ties can be expected to consolidate existing frameworks while focusing on new avenues for expansion. – Trump 2.0 will see stronger US security ties with India
Global Strategies
(Malancha Chakrabarty – Observer Research Foundation) The world is reeling under multiple crises, and global economic prospects are grim. According to the World Bank’s projections, growth in 2024 and 2025 will be slower than in the decade before COVID-19 due to sluggish trade and investments. Much of the developing world is mired in debt, with nearly 52 percent of low-income countries facing debt distress or high risk of debt distress. Five years before the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deadline, the world is experiencing a reversal of many of the hard-won development gains of previous years. Climate risks are expanding, and developing countries—the least responsible for the climate crisis—are the most severely impacted. Additionally, geopolitical rivalries and conflicts within and between nations are exacerbating economic instability and undermining collective efforts to address climate change and attain the SDGs. Triangular cooperation, a development modality in place since the 1970s, offers many advantages in today’s fractured, conflicted, and unsustainable world. Given the complex crisis that the world is currently facing, expanding partnerships beyond existing alliances and adopting new approaches to development diplomacy to harness resources and know-how from all partners is the need of the hour. A recent report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Islamic Development Bank stresses that triangular partnerships can effectively win influence with key strategic partners in a divided and conflicted world. Further, triangular cooperation is a powerful platform for technical diplomacy as it allows many state and non-state actors across countries to collaborate to create innovative development solutions. – Triangular Partnerships: A Preferred Modality for a World in Crisis?
