From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinkig of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Conflicts in 2025, Angola-Mozambique-West, Canada, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, UK-China, USA, USA-Greenland, USA-Russia, USA-Venezuela, Wagner Group-Africa-Middle East
Conflicts in 2025
(Council on Foreign Relations) CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) polls hundreds of foreign policy experts every year to assess thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts and their likely impact on U.S. interests. This year could be the most dangerous in the PPS’s seventeen-year history: experts predict that more contingencies have both a high likelihood of occurring and high impact on U.S. interests than ever before. Wars in Gaza and Ukraine, confrontations in the West Bank and at the U.S.-Mexico Border, and hostilities between Iran and Israel were of the greatest concern. Deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East top this year’s list, followed by threats to the American homeland (domestic political violence, cyberattacks, and a security crisis at the southern border), Russian aggression in Ukraine and eastern Europe, and Chinese provocation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Severe humanitarian crises in Haiti, Sudan, Somalia, and elsewhere rose in the rankings of this year’s survey relative to previous years. – Conflicts to Watch in 2025
Angola – Mozambique – West
(Ray Hartley, Greg Mills – RUSI) The recognition lavished on Angola’s President João Lourenço by the outgoing US administration exposes the West’s failure to champion democracy over strategic convenience in Africa. – In Angola and Mozambique, the West is Failing to Play to its Strengths | Royal United Services Institute
Canada
(Christopher Hernandez-Roy – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Like his father before him, following a “walk in the snow,” Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau announced on January 6 that he would resign as prime minister and party leader once the Liberal Party of Canada organizes a leadership race. He convinced Governor General Mary Simon to prorogue (suspend) parliament until March 24 to allow his party time to choose a new leader. This was couched under the guise of parliament needing a reset and a new start to navigate the complex times ahead both nationally and internationally, given, in Trudeau’s words, that it had been paralyzed by obstruction and filibustering. He added that stepping down would reduce the temperature and polarization at a time when Canadians needed to be united. Left unsaid as part of his reasoning for resigning, but clearly on the mind of the prime minister and of all Canadians, is the imperative to choose a leader who can effectively defend the country’s interests once President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20. – Trudeau Steps Down: Now What?
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Orysia Lutsevych OBE – Chatham House) President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign boast that he could finish the war in Ukraine in 24 hours has increased expectations of an imminent ceasefire. But without credible Western security guarantees agreed beforehand, a ceasefire would be a prelude to a bigger disaster. Proponents say that Trump’s threat to halt or decrease military assistance to Kyiv, while simultaneously warning Russia that he could give Ukraine all it needs on the battlefield, will bring both sides to the negotiating table. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeated in a recent interview that Putin is afraid of Trump, and that peace can be achieved through strength. – A rapid ceasefire in Ukraine could lead Donald Trump into a Russian trap | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Eugene Rumer – Council on Foreign Relations) It has become widely accepted that Ukraine is losing the war with Russia. In less than six months, the prevailing narrative has shifted from achieving victory to avoiding defeat. The early successes of the Ukrainian army in 2022 inspired war aims that included the total liberation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory and holding Russia accountable for its war crimes. Those aims no longer appear realistic. The conversation among Ukraine’s supporters has evolved to ending the war on terms that would prevent Russia from achieving total victory. The question now is how to get Russia to agree to a cease-fire and negotiate an end to a war it is currently winning. The prospect of long-term Ukrainian neutrality after the war could bring Russia to the table. – Neutrality: An Alternative to Ukraine’s Membership in NATO | Council on Foreign Relations
(David Lubin – Chatham House) The Russian economy is facing considerable stress due to the effects of its war in Ukraine. That gives US President-elect Donald Trump an important tool in negotiations to end the war, through more aggressive sanctions and energy policy. The question is whether the new US administration will be willing to exert that pressure, or whether Trump is too keen on pursuing friendship with Moscow as a way of isolating Beijing. – Russia’s economic dilemmas give Trump important leverage in negotiations on Ukraine. But will he use it? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
UK – China
(Olivia O’Sullivan, William Matthews – Chatham House) UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves heads to China this week to meet with Vice-premier He Lifeng and relaunch previously annual talks known as the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue, the last of which were held in 2019. This UK government has demonstrated a greater desire to engage with China than its predecessor. Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited China in October and Prime Minister Keir Starmer met President Xi Jinping in Brazil in November. Prior to this, no UK leader had met their Chinese counterpart since 2018, a relative lack of direct engagement compared with the US and European countries. – As the UK government seeks greater engagement with China, a clearer strategy is crucial – and long overdue | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
USA
(Brookings) As the nation lays to rest the 39th president of the United States, James Earl Carter Jr., Brookings scholars reflect on the consequential legacy of his presidency for American foreign policy. – The legacy of President Jimmy Carter
USA – Greenland
(Atlantic Council) He’s plotting an Arctic acquisition. As he prepares to take office on January 20, President-elect Donald Trump is already stirring up a transatlantic tempest with his overtures to acquire Greenland. Denmark has repeatedly said its strategically located island territory is not for sale, but Trump on Tuesday continued to push the issue—including threatening tariffs on Denmark. The icy dispute raises several burning questions. – Everything you need to know about Trump’s Greenland gambit – Atlantic Council
USA – Russia
(Benjamin Jensen – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Recent revelations that Moscow’s “ghost fleet” of oil tankers is loaded with spy gear and prone to undersea cable cutting indicate a pressing need to counter the Kremlin’s sabotage campaign in a manner that further undermines Russia’s wartime economy. For too long, the United States and Europe have turned a blind eye, relying on often late and feckless sanctions to counter Moscow’s illicit economic lifeline. The new Trump administration must target this ghost fleet with more than sanctions as part of its larger plan to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. – How to Exorcise Russia’s Ghost Fleet
USA – Venezuela
(Geoff Ramsey, Lucie Kneip – Atlantic Council) In response to Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro’s decision to claim a new illegitimate mandate on January 10 based on a stolen election, the United States and its allies face a major test of their strategy moving forward. Effectively pressuring the Venezuelan government will require innovative thinking on the use of individual sanctions from US authorities, as well as careful coordination between the United States and Latin American and European governments. – Recalibrating the use of individual sanctions in Venezuela – Atlantic Council
Wagner Group – Africa – Middle East
(Antonio Giustozzi, Joana de Deus Pereira, David Lewis – RUSI) This Whitehall Report looks at the Wagner Group from the perspective of its African and Middle Eastern clients, focusing on four case studies: Mali, the Central African Republic, Mozambique and Syria. – Did Wagner Succeed in the Eyes of its African and Middle Eastern Clients? | Royal United Services Institute
