LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa – South China Sea
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) As China grows increasingly aggressive in its race for global hegemony and influence, and the United States (US) slowly plunges into the battle to prevent China’s rise, the world is watching the unfolding of this rivalry with unease. Although a few places have felt intense pressure from this alarming competition, the South China Sea (SCS) region is where a violent showdown looks increasingly probable. Unlike the war in Ukraine or Gaza, the US and China may start a direct war in the SCS. And amidst this multifaceted new Cold War 2.0, Africa remains cautious.
Africa’s delicate diplomacy in the South China Sea dispute (orfonline.org)
Australia – Antarctica – China
(Elizabeth Buchanan – ASPI The Strategist) Our domestic discourse on the geopolitics of Antarctica is shamefully shallow. Our attitude continues to be one of ‘there’s nothing to see here’. Our vital interests, including the defence of Australian sovereign territory, are at stake, but everyone appears happy to pass the problem on to the next government. Canberra has a national interest in Antarctica—a claim to 42 per cent of the frozen continent. Yet successive Australian governments have overlooked Antarctica. We’ve even launched a National Defence Strategy that makes no reference to our sovereign Antarctic territory.
China is serious about Antarctica. Australia should be too | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Baltic Sea Region – Russia – NATO
(Scott Savitz, Isabelle Winston – RAND Corporation) The strategic environment in the Baltic Sea region has undergone two key changes since 2022: (1) intensified North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)–Russia tensions due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and (2) Finland’s and Sweden’s accessions to NATO. The region represents one of the largest interfaces between NATO and Russia, and essential civilian commerce and undersea infrastructure in the area are vulnerable to attack by Russia.
A Brief Naval Overview of the Baltic Sea Region | RAND
Belarus
(Grigory Ioffe – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s government continues to see success its foreign policy while conducting state visits to Azerbaijan and Mongolia as well as hosting Hungarian officials and businessmen. The Belarusian opposition, however, is experiencing an identity crisis, evidenced in the low polling turnout for their recent Coordination Council elections and how the opposition can only claim to represent a minority of Belarusians. The ability to win over “hearts and minds” on both sides will be a critical aspect of any Western policy toward Belarus.
Belarusian Opposition’s ‘Unspoken Problem’ – Jamestown
Central Asia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The enormous rare-earth mineral reserves in Central Asia are intensifying geopolitical competition among China, the West, and Russia and have been complicated by their competing agendas. Beijing wants to develop a monopoly on rare earths, the United States and the European Union want to break that by limiting the growth of Chinese influence, and Russia wants to keep both China happy and the West out. Some are already calling this competition the “Great Game of the 21st century,” which elevates Central Asia’s importance internationally, reorders geopolitical relations, and challenges domestic arrangements in the region.
Rare-Earth Reserves in Central Asia Sparking Intense Geopolitical Competition – Jamestown
China
(Michael Pezzullo – ASPI The Strategist) The problem of dealing with a belligerent communist China is the geopolitical challenge of the age. Its favourable resolution will open the door to global amity. The alternative is enduring global instability, confrontation, and the risk of a major war in the Pacific, fought with nuclear weapons standing ready on a hair trigger.
The challenge of communist China | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
European Union
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Host Sophia Besch speaks with Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe and co-author of a recent compilation on Europe’s far-right turn, about the European Parliament elections.
(Vassilis Ntousas, Rita Barbosa Lobo – GMF) The 2024 European parliamentary elections were long expected to deliver a dramatic far-right surge. Instead, what we got was a much more nuanced picture. Befitting a Europe that is feeling increasingly insecure, far-right forces did make significant gains, with high-profile wins in some countries. These were not matched in most EU countries, however. Regardless, the political journey of much of the far-right from decades-long pariahs to political normality points to structural shifts within the bloc. An earthquake it was not, but the impact of the election will be felt across the continent.
(Lukas Trakimavičius – European Union Institute for Security Studies) The EU’s commitment to the energy transition is undeniable, with policies like the European Green Deal and the Net-Zero Industry Act paving the way towards a climate-neutral Europe. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen clearly stated at the World Economic Forum in 2023, the plan is ‘to make Europe the home of clean tech and industrial innovation on the road to net zero’
Turbocharging the energy transition | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
European Union – China
(Chris Aylett – Chatham House) On 12 June, following an anti-subsidy investigation, the European Commission disclosed that it would provisionally impose import tariffs ranging from 27.4 to 48.1 per cent on electric vehicles (EVs) from China. This comes a month after the United States announced that their own tariffs on Chinese EVs would rise to an unprecedented 102.5 per cent.
G7
(Katie Tobin – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) At this week’s G7 Summit in Italy, migration will be on the agenda for the first time in the group’s history. With more than 110 million people displaced globally—the highest number since World War II—migration has become a vexing challenge and political lightening rod for nearly every government. It has been a particular headache for the G7’s host, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose country confronted a 50 percent increase in irregular migration from North Africa last year. Migration was also a hot topic in the EU parliamentary elections this month, and it is currently polling as a top issue for U.S. voters in November. As the G7 leaders consider how to deal with this challenge together, there is already a road map for them to follow. Two years ago, U.S. President Joe Biden and twenty other leaders in the Western Hemisphere enshrined a first-of-its-kind regional approach to the issue, in what is known as the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection.
(Yougesh Khatri – Chatham House) Public debt in advanced economies has reached such elevated levels that it poses a serious threat to long-term growth and stability. In 2023, general government gross debt (public debt) exceeded $68 trillion – or 111 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
India
(Sanjeet Kashyap – Observer Research Foundation) The Defence Ministry’s recent interest in a second indigenous aircraft carrier under Minister Rajnath Singh ought to be seen as an indicator of the rising profile of the Indian Navy (IN) in the defence policy debates. The operational deployment of naval ships to the South China Sea, the recurrent success of the Indian Navy’s anti-piracy operations in the Western Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden as well as its routine engagement in friendly naval exercises indicate the ambitious regional profile of an erstwhile neglected service. The IN has clearly shed its tag as the “Cinderella” service, projecting itself as a preferred security partner in the wider region as part of the Act East policy and the SAGAR vision. At this juncture, a historical evaluation of the drivers of IN’s growing capabilities would allow us to better understand the outgrowth of the maritime consciousness in India. The historically-rooted analysis highlights relevant variables shaping the Indian naval strategy, weapons acquisition, and force posture, including the external strategic environment, organisational imperatives, and budgetary constraints.
Navigating India’s strategic seas: The evolving role of the Navy (orfonline.org)
(Lydia Powell, Akhilesh Sati, Vinod Kumar Tomar – Observer Research Foundation) Solar, wind, and other forms of renewable energy (RE) excluding hydro and nuclear power accounted for 30 percent of total power generating capacity and about 14 percent of total power generated in 2022-23. RE was the second largest after coal in terms of both, power generation capacity and power generation. In the coming decades, the share of RE capacity and power generation is expected to increase exponentially. This shift away from coal towards RE for power generation is presented by the media and academia as a transition to a lower-cost system that will reduce and eventually eliminate emission of carbon and other local pollutants and also serve as a means to reduce electricity tariffs and renew Indian power utilities (distribution companies or Discoms). The underlying argument is that once Discoms replace the expensive long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) for coal-based power with short-term, flexible and low-cost PPAs for RE-generated electricity, not only will it reduce electricity tariff benefitting consumers but also wipe out financial woes of Discoms. Basic electricity economics and market-oriented Discom restructuring efforts may undermine these expectations.
Renewables: Can they renew Indian power utilities? (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Raz Zimmt – INSS) On June 9, The Guardian Council of Iran published the list of final candidates for the Iranian presidential elections, which were moved up to June 28 following the sudden death of President Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. The council approved six out of approximately 80 candidates at the end of the screening process: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Majles; Saeed Jalili, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council; Masoud Pezeshkian, former minister of health; Ali-Reza Zakani, former mayor of Tehran; Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, former vice president; and Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, former minister of interior and justice.
Approval of the Final Candidates in the Iranian Presidential Elections | INSS
ISIS – India – Sri Lanka
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) The past half a decade has been tumultuous. A continuing global recovery from the pandemic. Geopolitical flashpoints such as wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The US left Afghanistan in 2021 as part of an “exit” deal with the Taliban and maintaining minimum forces in both Iraq and Syria to counter the Islamic State (ISIS or Daesh in Arabic), signalling the end of the “war on terror”. This, however, does not mean that the threat of terrorism is over, or even diminished. At best, attention has moved to more pressing matters of the day, until the next attack. The recent arrest of four Sri Lankan citizens in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, piques interest.
The curious case of pro-ISIS movements between India and Sri Lanka (orfonline.org)
Italy – China
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) Almost 150 countries have joined China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—a project central to Beijing’s global prestige as well as President Xi Jinping’s persona and legacy. Italy, which joined in 2019, was the only G7 and major European Union country to join the BRI. Less than five years later, in December 2023, Italy formally exited the BRI, making it the first country to do so. This paper contextualises the drivers behind Italy’s ‘BRIexit’ and the future of Italy-China relations in the wake of this withdrawal. It briefly explores the possibilities of Italy’s exit setting a precedent for other BRI members to withdraw from the initiative.
Italy’s BRIexit: Not All Roads Lead to Beijing (orfonline.org)
Maritime Security
(Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation) Maritime security is conceptually complex and intersectional. With countries directing enhanced focus to the maritime domain on account of seaborne trade and connectivity, preparedness for the mitigation of maritime security challenges has followed as a critical policy priority. However, maritime security does not simply refer to securing the maritime domain. The oceanic geographies are intersectional spaces with increasing interface with other important spatial domains such as territorial spaces, polar regions, outer space, and undersea domains. Therefore, maritime security has a significant overlap with the security of these domains.
Securing critical undersea infrastructure (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sharing of the number of contracted soldiers, prisoners, and losses, as well as yield of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons demonstrate that he is an active participant in Kremlin propaganda’s “active measures.”. Putin seeks to demoralize Ukrainian society with the alleged number of losses and prisoners of war, threaten European political elites with non-strategic nuclear arms, and appease the Russian population. The numerical discrepancies Putin shares and the chaos within the Kremlin system indicate instability in Moscow, which will likely unravel as the war continues.
Putin Participates in Russian Propaganda’s ‘Active Measures’ – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Justin Bassi – ASPI The Strategist) This weekend’s Summit on Peace in Ukraine is a misnomer. It’s not about an immediate end to the war but about finding ways to strengthen Ukraine’s hand so that it heads to the negotiating table on its own terms and timing, and that we have a reasonable chance of a peace that is both acceptable and durable. Hosted by Switzerland, it will bring together leaders from about 100 countries ranging from Germany and France to Japan and Southeast Asian nations.
(Atlantic Council) From Russia, with interest. The Group of Seven (G7) leaders announced Thursday that they had agreed on a plan to send fifty billion dollars to Ukraine in the coming months by pulling forward interest income on Russian assets that had been immobilized in Western countries since February 2022 (a novel idea that Atlantic Council research helped shape). Combined with the announcement of a bilateral security deal with the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took home significant wins from joining the summit of the world’s democratic economic heavyweights along Italy’s Adriatic coast.
(GMF) On June 11 and 12, the German government, in partnership with the government of Ukraine, will host the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2024) with the aim of supporting Ukraine’s economic and social recovery from Russia’s war of aggression.
Spain
(Kristina Kausch – GMF) While the predominant narrative around the European Parliament (EP) election has been of an overall dwindling political center cornered by sweeping gains from the fringes, Spain’s results point in a different direction. In the EU’s fourth-largest economy, not only did the center hold, but it has been strengthened. Spain is now the only EU member state whose two largest political formations in the EP are pro-European.
Tunisia
(Sarah Yerkes, Joy Arkeh – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Tunisia is facing a rapidly escalating climate crisis. Last summer, the government was forced to implement water rationing to address a severe drought. And the country’s most vulnerable residents—many of whom rely on agriculture and fishing for their income—are being hit the hardest by worsening water and food scarcity and rising temperatures. Despite Tunisia being a globally recognized climate hot spot, President Kais Saied’s government has failed to prioritize climate adaptation and mitigation, instead focusing on a political program that centralizes power into the leadership’s hands and removes local agency. This political shift has had real and serious implications for the ability of local communities to address climate change. This piece will discuss the main climate challenges facing Tunisia today, the ways in which these challenges contribute to the country’s socioeconomic inequality, and the measures the Tunisian government (as well as other actors, such as civil society organizations and the international community) are taking to address climate change.
USA
(Alice Nason, Tom Corben – Lowy The Interpreter) Former US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis once quipped that, “if you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition”. In assessing the wrangling over the forthcoming US federal budget, it seems that ammunition will be in ample supply; it’s hard to say the same for American diplomacy.
Back to the future for the US State Department? | Lowy Institute
USA – Kenya
(Jane Munga – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Ruto’s state visit to Washington resulted in a historic foreign policy moment with technology cooperation at its core. Now, the Kenyan president has the enormous responsibility to capitalize on these opportunities.
USA – UK
(Heather Hurlburt – Chatham House) With elections due in both the US and the UK this year, there are two key asks that the next US administration – whether under Biden or Trump – will make of the next UK government. First, the US will want the UK to play a central and expensive role in European security. Second, it will want the UK’s support for a vision of economic security that prioritizes close relations among allies and denial of a growing set of technologies and markets to Beijing.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
