China’s grey-zone fleet is eroding Taiwan’s control at sea

(Nathan Attrill – ASPI The Strategist) China’s pressure on Taiwan increasingly relies on vessels that aren’t warships. Instead, Beijing is deploying a maritime grey-zone fleet: a network of civilian and paramilitary vessels used to harass, intimidate and probe Taiwan while remaining below the threshold of armed conflict. This grey-zone fleet is better understood as an ecosystem of maritime actors – including China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels, maritime militia fishing boats, sand dredgers, logistics ships and commercial cargo vessels operating through opaque ownership structures – that can be mobilised to serve state objectives while maintaining plausible deniability. Presence of Chinese naval warships clearly signals military escalation. But civilian vessels create uncertainty. When fishermen harass Taiwanese patrol boats or commercial ships loiter near subsea cables, Beijing can claim incidents are accidents or private activity rather than state-directed coercion. – China’s grey-zone fleet is eroding Taiwan’s control at sea | The Strategist