LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
Africa in 2024 will be the second fastest-growing economic region in the world (after Asia) at 4 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund, but behind the headline figure is a less auspicious reality. Fresh conflict, more military coups, the renewed Israel–Gaza conflict and the lingering Russia–Ukraine war are contributing to stifling better growth across the continent
What’s at stake for Africa in 2024? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Argentina
(Alejandro Werner – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The economic “shock therapy” prescribed by Javier Milei, the new libertarian president of Argentina, reflects the free market and fiscal discipline convictions of the president and his clear understanding of the small window of opportunity he has to implement the policies needed to stabilize and transform the country. His strategy is full of economic and political risks, but it seems to offer the maximum chances of success given the constraints he faces
Milei’s “shock therapy” faces an uphill battle in Argentina | PIIE
AUKUS
(Courtney Albon – Defense News) Much of the focus of the trilateral pact between Australia, the U.S. and the U.K., known as AUKUS, has been on military-to-military cooperation, but a group of more than 400 investors is establishing a parallel effort to increase collaboration among the countries’ private sectors. Innovation advisory firm BMNT announced the AUKUS Defense Investor Network, or DIN, in December and plans to host its first meeting in early February. The group, which represents about $265 billion in venture capital, brings together existing investor networks in the three countries with a goal of increasing funding for national security innovation
Investors form alliance to bolster AUKUS military partnership (defensenews.com)
Black Sea
(Gavin Clough – Atlantic Council) The Black Sea is the only body of international waters that the US Navy is unable to access at will under international maritime law. As a result, the United States depends on its Black Sea allies and partners to defend their and the United States’ interests. Unfortunately, these states do not currently have sufficient capabilities to defend these interests beyond their coastlines and under the sea
China – Houthis
(Ori Sela, Assaf Orion – INSS) Although the terrorist attacks by the Houthis in Yemen threaten Chinese ships and harm Chinese commercial interests, Beijing has remained silent about these incidents and refuses to join the international effort to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. Why?
China and the Houthis: Sounds of Silence | INSS
China – Indian Ocean
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs – CSIS) China is undertaking sweeping efforts to transform its navy into a formidable “blue water” force capable of projecting power far beyond its shores. As the People’s Liberation Army ventures into less familiar waters like the Indian Ocean, Beijing has sought to deepen its understanding of the maritime operating environment by studying water conditions, currents, and the seafloor. To survey the Earth’s oceans, China has developed the world’s largest fleet of civilian research vessels. While these ships support scientific and commercial objectives, they are also being used to advance Beijing’s strategic ambitions
Surveying the Seas: China’s Dual-Use Research Operations in the Indian Ocean (csis.org)
Cybersecurity – Artificial Intelligence – Technological Perspectives
1 – (Prateek Tripathi – Observer Research Foundation) A brief examines the rapid growth of the global online gaming industry and the consequent increase in cyber threats. Issues such as microtransactions, money laundering, and predatory practices by developers can stymie the industry’s growth potential if not addressed. Many countries’ current gaming-focused regulatory frameworks do not cover these challenges and will need to be revised. India—a significant gaming market—must also consider making its online gaming policy more holistic by addressing the rampant cybersecurity threats
Cybersecurity Threats in Online Gaming: Learnings for India (orfonline.org)
2 – (Observer Research Foundation) The world today is plagued by an influx of new military uses of emerging technologies and the reemergence of old conflicts, and disarmament seems to have taken a back seat. The present multipolar world order has led to the erosion of existing disarmament agreements at a time when the international community is struggling to keep pace with technological advancements. Artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity have become central issues in international security. There is a dire need for stocktaking to anticipate unknown risks and develop guardrails and norms for the responsible use of existing and emerging technology
Challenges and Opportunities in Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (orfonline.org)
3 – (Security Week) False and misleading information supercharged with cutting-edge artificial intelligence that threatens to erode democracy and polarize society is the top immediate risk to the global economy, the World Economic Forum said in a report Wednesday
AI-Powered Misinformation is the World’s Biggest Short-Term Threat, Davos Report Says – SecurityWeek
4 – (The Hacker News) The least surprising headline from 2023 is that ransomware again set new records for a number of incidents and the damage inflicted. If MGM, Johnson Controls, Chlorox, Hanes Brands, Caesars Palace, and so many others cannot stop the attacks, how will anyone else? Phishing-driven ransomware is the cyber threat that looms larger and more dangerous than all others. CISA and Cisco report that 90% of data breaches are the result of phishing attacks and monetary losses that exceed $10 billion in total. A report from Splunk revealed that 96 percent of companies fell victim to at least one phishing attack in the last 12 months and 83 percent suffered two or more. With the rise of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI), cybercriminals are able to take phishing to an entirely new level where every attack can become nearly impossible for users to identify
There is a Ransomware Armageddon Coming for Us All (thehackernews.com)
5 – (Daniel Pereira – OODA) Attention should be paid to recent developments in the fields of health security, bioengineering, synthetic biology, biotechnology and medical technology. Overall, bioeconomy and medical technology platforms show clear signs in 2024 as a strategic innovation space to deploy best-in-class business platforms and generative AI and machine learning use cases
OODA Loop – Recent Developments in and the Future of the Bioeconomy in 2024
Djibouti – Gulf of Aden – India – Indo Pacific
(Sankalp Gurjar – Vivekananda International Foundation) With the latest drone attacks launched by the Houthi rebels on the cargo ships transiting through the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea, the region in and around Djibouti has shot to global prominence once again. In response to these attacks, global shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC and Hapag Lloyd have decided to avoid the Red Sea route. The growing instability and insecurity in the Gulf of Aden and around the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb have underscored the strategic importance of having a sustained military presence in the region. In this context, Djibouti’s geopolitical significance cannot be overstated
Ecuador
(Isabel Chiriboga – Atlantic Council) Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa began the new year with a declaration of “internal armed conflict” against criminal groups, along with a sixty-day state of emergency. Earlier this week, two criminal group leaders – José Adolfo Macías Salazar, alias “Fito”, of the Los Choneros group, and Fabricio Colón Pico, alias “Captain Pico”, of Los Lobos – escaped from prison. The escape was accompanied by a series of prison riots, car bombings, kidnappings and criminal attacks on a television channel and a university in Guayaquil. The Noboa administration’s first steps to address violence and unrest have been positive, but it will be a long battle for which Ecuador urgently needs international support
European Union
1 – (Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) On 1 January 2024, Belgium took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) from Spain. Belgium’s 13th such presidency, the last one being in 2010, arrives at a turbulent moment as the EU grapples with multiple crises including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, dire instability in the Middle East, energy security, and the China challenge
The spirit of ‘compromis à la belge’ (orfonline.org)
2 – (Rudy Ruitenberg, Andrew Chuter – Defense News) Recruitment difficulties are bedeviling militaries across Europe as they seek to build up their strengths in the face of Russian aggression, an assertive China and a deteriorating security situation in parts of Africa and the Middle East. With European countries spending billions of euros to buy additional weapons in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the question becomes whether their armed forces can hire enough people to use them. Tight labor markets and a Generation Z reluctant to enlist are weighing on military recruitment in developed economies, despite increased defense budgets
Hiring woes bedevil European nations stocking up on weapons (defensenews.com)
Global Perspectives
1 – (World Economic Forum) The Global Risks Report explores some of the most serious risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, global warming and conflict
Global Risks Report 2024 | World Economic Forum | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
2 – (Sophie Heading, Ellissa Cavaciuti-Wishart – World Economic Forum) The Global Risks Report 2024 states that the greatest short-term risk comes from disinformation. Over the long term, climate-related threats dominate the top 10 risks facing global populations. Two-thirds of global experts predict that a multipolar or fragmented order will take shape in the next decade
These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
3 – (Carolina Klint – World Economic Forum) The latest Global Risks Report identifies the major risks that society will face in the next decade. Key risks include challenges related to artificial intelligence technologies, geopolitics and climate change. Many of the risks identified are already complicating business operations and will continue to do so unless global stakeholders can revitalize cooperation
How to build business resilience in an era of risk turbulence | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
4 – (Kate Whiting – World Economic Forum) Revitalizing cooperation is necessary to promote resilience, growth and security. A new report from McKinsey and the World Economic Forum measures the changing state of global cooperation across five pillars between 2012 and 2022
This is the state of global cooperation in 2024 | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
5 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2024, as well as their global political implications
What to Worry About in 2024 | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
6 – (Creon Butler – Chatham House) It now looks likely that the cost – in terms of lost output and jobs – of bringing inflation back to target will be lower in most advanced countries than previously feared. But even as the immediate crisis subsides, there is a growing debate over the policy lessons to be learnt, not just from the inflation shock and the economic handling of the pandemic, but from the entire period since the 2008-9 global financial crisis. This reflects advanced countries’ poor economic record over that period, with low and volatile growth accompanied by very low investment and anaemic productivity growth, rising public debt and weak trade growth
India – China
(Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan – Observer Research Foundation) The Indian Ministry of Defense released its Year End Review 2023 a few days ago. The review provides a state of play on areas under its purview including defense production and exports, major defense acquisitions, border infrastructure, and individual service updates from the Indian army, navy and air force. Much of what India is attempting to do in the defense realm has to do with China and its growing military prowess
Sino-Indian Border Infrastructure in the Indian Defense Ministry’s Year End Review (orfonline.org)
India – China – Russia
(Nivedita Kapoor, Tanvi Madan – Brookings) India has closely watched the China-Russia relationship for decades because it has shaped India’s foreign policy options. In a podcast episode, Tanvi Madan speaks with Nivedita Kapoor about Russia’s evolving role in India’s China strategy and New Delhi’s perception of recent developments in the China-Russia partnership
Why India cares about China-Russia relations | Brookings
India – Russia
1 – (Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan – Observer Research Foundation) Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar was in Russia on a five-day visit in late December. Upon conclusion of the visit, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a press release saying that he had meetings with a number of senior Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin, which is considered unusual for the Kremlin in normal circumstances. Following his meeting with Putin, Jaishankar said in a tweet that he “(A)pprised President Putin of my discussions with Ministers Manturov and Lavrov. Appreciated his guidance on the further developments of our ties.” As he noted, Jaishankar also met with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
India’s Russia Defense Gambit (orfonline.org)
2 – (Prerna Gandhi – Vivekananda International Foundation) India today is the fastest-growing economy in the world, with a strong outlook of 7-8 per cent growth rates for the coming decade. Russia, despite having become the most sanctioned economy in the world, has shown uncommon resilience and returned to positive GDP growth
Indo Pacific – USA
(Yeo Han-koo, Alan Wm. Wolff – Peterson Institute for International Economics) 2024 will be a year of transition for Indo-Pacific economic cooperation. The dominant feature of the political landscape is the US election, the outcome of which rests on a political knife-edge according to current polling. The difference presented on January 20, 2025, is likely to be stark: Either there will be a US government in place that provides an opportunity for closer coordination of economic policies in the region, building on the directions identified in what is still at best a work in progress, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), or there will be a return to an America invested primarily in itself, without a vision for international cooperation, and rejecting the beginnings that have been made.
Will 2024 deepen Indo-Pacific economic cooperation? | PIIE
Iran
(Council on Foreign Relations) Created after Iran’s 1979 revolution to protect the new Islamic regime, the IRGC has become one of the most powerful paramilitary organizations in the Middle East. It has provided assistance to militant groups in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria, and Yemen. Its control over large sectors of the Iranian economy helps it fund its activities, and sweeping U.S. sanctions don’t seem to be limiting its regional ambition
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Near East
1 – (Shahira Amin – Atlantic Council) As Israel’s relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip enters its fourth month, Egypt—which is suffering the ramifications of the ongoing war on its northern border—has, in recent weeks ramped up its mediation efforts to broker a permanent ceasefire. But despite inching closer to a new hostage release deal, the assassination of Hamas’ Deputy Leader Saleh Al-Arouri on January 2 has not just piled new pressures on Egypt which was already feeling the pinch of an unprecedented economic crisis, but has also thrown a towel over Egyptian mediation talks
2 – (Jon B. Alterman – CSIS) With violence between Palestinians and Israelis at its highest levels in decades, voices again have risen in favor of a two-state solution. The idea—a Jewish homeland and an Arab one carved out of Mandatory Palestine—dates back to the United Nation’s 1947 partition plan, but it has seemed increasingly remote. In the weeks before October 7, the growing consensus was that the window for a two-state solution had closed. The current violence has persuaded many that the idea needs to be revived
A Different Two-State Solution (csis.org)
3 – (Meir Elran, Rebecca Meller, Anat Shapira – INSS) An analysis of several public opinion surveys conducted in Israel since October 7 shows an extremely high level of support for the war against Hamas, with support that crosses sectors, age groups, and political views. What does this indicate about Israeli society in a time of war, and what can be expected in this context as the war continues?
Support in Israel for the Goals of the War against Hamas | INSS
4 – (Tal Avraham, Carmit Valensi – INSS) The war in Gaza and the fighting in the north have not prevented Israel from operating in Syria as well. In effect, alongside the increase in Israeli attacks in Lebanon and the dramatic killing of senior Hamas figure Saleh al-Arouri in the heart of Beirut, it appears that Israel is also stepping up its activities in Syria and attacking weapons transfers and strategic targets in a more frequent and deadly manner
October 7 Changed the Rules of the Game in the Syrian Arena as Well | INSS
5 – (Galit Cohen, Itamar Eliash, Amit Ashkenazi – INSS) The war in Gaza has sharpened the understanding in Israel that national resilience depends, inter alia, on the ability to produce and provide food in routine times and in states of emergency. A primary challenge apparent in the food production and distribution system in Israel as a result of the war is the severe shortage of human resources along the supply chain, particularly in agriculture. The dependence of the Israeli food system on imports might undermine its stability in the face of two principal challenges: climate changes, which may reduce the volume of grain produced in countries exporting to Israel; and geopolitical risks, which may harm import routes
Food Security: A Challenge in Times of Routine and Emergency | INSS
6 – (Meir Elran, Adi Kantor, Anat Shapira – INSS) Although extensive attention is devoted to the military aspects of the war between Israel and Hamas, much less focus is given to one of the most burning issues on the agenda: the well-being of Israeli society after the horrific massacre of October 7 on Israeli soil. What can be said about the resilience of Israelis today, three months into the war? Are there already signs of recovery after this trauma, or it is still too soon to tell? What is needed for a society in trauma to recover and return somehow to what is known in the research as “functional continuity”? What does it really mean to ‘”function” after an event of this sort, and is it even possible?
After the October 7 Massacre: How Resilient is Israeli Society? | INSS
7 – (Benjamin Miller – BESA Center) The Yom Kippur War of 1973 ended with a US-driven peace process that eventually led to Egyptian-Israeli peace. The war in Gaza, despite important differences, can do the same, kicking off a new American diplomatic effort that could eventually achieve an historic Israeli-Palestinian settlement linked to a broader Arab recognition of Israel
An Opportunity for the US in the Middle East: 1973 vs. 2023 (besacenter.org)
8 – (Yohanan Plesner – Israel Democracy Institute) While we entered this war more divided than ever – and with large numbers even saying that they believed civil war to be a possibility – Israelis today are united in their determination to win
Pakistan
(Sushant Sareen – Observer Research Foundation) With just over a month left for general elections in Pakistan, the political environment remains tepid. Campaigning is still to pick up steam. The usual enthusiasm and excitement that accompanies a general election is missing, as is the large-scale political mobilisation that is such an integral part of the electoral process. A big reason for this lack of interest is because serious questions are being raised about the integrity, transparency and fairness of the elections. There is almost a consensus among political analysts that the results have already been decided by the military establishment even before a single vote has been cast: Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) will emerge as the single largest party, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) will not be allowed to win, and the other parties like Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI-F) of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) and Istehkam Pakistan Party (IPP) will get some share of the electoral cake
Pakistan: The street vs the state (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Nicolas Véron – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February of 2022, a number of governments, including the United States, all of the European Union, Japan, and others, immobilized the Bank of Russia’s reserve assets under their jurisdiction, meaning the assets remain property of the Bank of Russia, but the latter cannot move them from where they are held. Thanks to gradually increased transparency, the European Union has emerged publicly as the dominant player in that coordinated action. Most of the immobilized assets are held at Euroclear, the Brussels-based international central securities depository
Cash keeps accumulating at Euroclear Bank as a result of sanctions on Russia | PIIE
Taiwan
1 – (Council on Foreign Relations) David Sacks and James M. Lindsay discuss the potential geopolitical consequences of Taiwan’s presidential race
Taiwan’s Presidential Election, With David Sacks | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
2 – (Rajaram Panda – Vivekananda International Foundation) In the self-ruled island of Taiwan, 19 million eligible voters shall be going to the polls on 13 January 2024 to elect a new President. The geopolitical significance of this cannot be understated as the outcome shall be of extreme interest to the region’s security analysts and policy makers. Irrespective of whether a pro-China candidate or an independence-seeking candidate returns to the helm, Taiwan’s political and economic future post-election outcome shall be keenly watched and intensely discussed. While plenty shall be at stake for the people, the outcome in either way shall have serious security and economic implications for the entire region
Elections in Taiwan: Some Projections | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
USA – China
1 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Forty-five years after the United States and China formalized relations, Minister Liu Jianchao discusses the two countries’ current relationship and the implications of the recent meeting between their respective leaders, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, for global stability and cooperation
2 – (Paul Heer – East Asia Forum) Despite the positive atmospherics of the November 2023 summit in California between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, it remains unclear whether any momentum has been generated toward a substantial relaxation of bilateral tensions over the coming year. Although the summit produced agreement on several tactical bilateral issues, the fundamental sources of friction and mistrust between the two sides were not substantially addressed
US-China detente likely to remain elusive in 2024 | East Asia Forum
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Oltre i confini. Per il dialogo. A colloquio con Domitilla Olivieri (Università di Utrecht) / Beyond borders. For dialogue. In conversation with Domitilla Olivieri (Utrecht University) (Marzia Giglioli)
- Israele-Gaza. Continua il (complesso) work-in-progress diplomatico / Israel-Gaza. The (complex) diplomatic work-in-progress continues (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Meteo: febbre sempre più alta (Marzia Giglioli)
- Mediazione come essenza della politica / Mediation as the essence of politics (Marco Emanuele)
- Il G7 e la sfida della mediazione / The G7 and the challenge of mediation (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Medio Oriente: la guerra liquida del terrorismo / Middle East: the liquid war of terrorism (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
