Geostrategic magazine (it-en, 20-21 september 2023)

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DAILY FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS

SYSTEMIC SUSTAIBILITY

CLIMATE IMPACT & ACTION – SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT – SDGs

(1) Vitor Gaspar, Mario Mansour e Charles Vellutini (IMF blogs) scrivono che i mercati emergenti e le economie in via di sviluppo hanno bisogno di 3.000 miliardi di dollari all’anno fino al 2030 per finanziare i loro obiettivi di sviluppo e la transizione climatica. Si tratta di un importo pari circa al 7% del prodotto interno lordo combinato di questi Paesi nel 2022. Secondo gli Autori, molti Paesi hanno il potenziale per aumentare il loro rapporto tasse/PIL, consentendo di fornire servizi governativi critici, fino a 9 punti percentuali attraverso una migliore progettazione fiscale e istituzioni pubbliche più forti

Vitor Gaspar, Mario Mansour and Charles Vellutini (IMF blogs) write that emerging markets and developing economies need USD 3 trillion annually until 2030 to finance their development goals and climate transition. This is about 7% of the combined gross domestic product of these countries in 2022. According to the authors, many countries have the potential to increase their tax-to-GDP ratio, enabling critical government services, by up to 9 percentage points through better tax design and stronger public institutions

Countries Can Tap Tax Potential to Finance Development Goals (imf.org)

(2) Il think tank World Resources Institute scrive del  nuovo report  nuovo report di Ocean Panel, ‘The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Updated Opportunities for Action’. Lavorare sugli oceani in chiave strategica aiuterebbe a limitare l’impatto dei cambiamenti climatici

The think tank World Resources Institute writes about the Ocean Panel’s new report, ‘The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Updated Opportunities for Action’. Working on the oceans strategically would help limit the impact of climate change

RELEASE: Ocean-based Climate Action Could Deliver Up to 35% of Emission Cuts Needed to Limit Temperature Rise to 1.5°C by 2050 | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

(3) Katie Wood e Oliver Ashford (WRI) scrivono a proposito dell’importanza di considerare l’oceano come una risorsa indispensabile per limitare gli effetti dei cambiamenti climatici. Gli Autori sottolineano come gli Stati debbano aumentare in modo sostanziale gli investimenti nella tecnologia e nelle infrastrutture necessarie per sfruttare appieno la capacità degli oceani di contribuire ad affrontare la crisi climatica

Katie Wood and Oliver Ashford (WRI) write about the importance of considering the ocean as an indispensable resource for limiting the effects of climate change. The authors emphasise how States must substantially increase investment in the technology and infrastructure needed to fully utilise the oceans’ capacity to help address the climate crisis

7 Ocean-based Solutions to Climate Change | World Resources Institute (wri.org)

FINANCIAL STABILITY 

Tobias Adrian, Fabiana Melo, Marina Moretti, Jay Surti (IMF blogs) scrivono che il miglioramento dell’efficacia della vigilanza è fondamentale per la stabilità bancaria e finanziaria. In un nuovo paper, “Good Supervision: Lessons from the Field’, gli Autori riflettono sugli insegnamenti tratti dalle recenti turbolenze bancarie negli Stati Uniti e in Svizzera e passano in rassegna i progressi compiuti nei vari Paesi per garantire una vigilanza efficace

Tobias Adrian, Fabiana Melo, Marina Moretti, Jay Surti (IMF blogs) write that improving the effectiveness of supervision is crucial for banking and financial stability. In a new paper, ‘Good Supervision: Lessons from the Field’, the authors reflect on the lessons learned from the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland and review the progress made in various countries to ensure effective supervision

Financial Stability Needs Supervisors With the Ability and Will to Act (imf.org)

GLOBAL ORDER

(1) Esperti del think tank Atlantic Council discutono l’annunciata, da parte di Washington, Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation. Il focus è la collaborazione in materia di sviluppo economico, protezione ambientale e questioni marittime come la pesca illegale. Quali sono gli effetti geopolitici ?

Experts from the think tank Atlantic Council discuss Washington’s announced Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation. The focus is on collaboration on economic development, environmental protection and maritime issues such as illegal fishing. What are the geopolitical effects?

Does the new Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation mark a sea change in transatlantic relations? – Atlantic Council

(2) Esther Brimmer (CFR) scrive del discorso del Presidente americano Biden all’Assemblea Generale delle Nazioni Unite. Nell’invocare la visione internazionalista, Biden ha posto l’accento sulla necessità di renderla più inclusiva, in particolare su quattro punti: obiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile; cambiamenti climatici; Cina; Ucraina

Esther Brimmer (CFR) writes about US President Biden’s speech to the UN General Assembly. In invoking the internationalist vision, Biden emphasised the need to make it more inclusive, particularly on four points: sustainable development goals; climate change; China; Ukraine

Biden at the UN: Inclusive Internationalism | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

UNGA 2023

Links to the interventions in the general debate. From the United Nations website

WORLDS (GEOSTRATEGIES)

AUSTRALIA

(1) John Coyne e Henry Campbell (ASPI The Strategist) scrivono dell’importanza, per l’Australia, dell’approvvigionamento di terre rare e minerali critici. Dopo il primo ‘Darwin Dialogue’, il think tank ASPI ha pubblicato ‘Developing Australia’s Critical Mineral’s: Implementing the outcomes from the 2023 dialogue’, 24 raccomandazioni per il governo e il settore privato al fine di sostenere lo sviluppo di mercati alternativi (rispetto alla Cina) validi e competitivi che offrano prodotti attraverso catene di approvvigionamento sicure

John Coyne and Henry Campbell (ASPI The Strategist) write about the importance to Australia of the supply of rare earths and critical minerals. Following the first ‘Darwin Dialogue’, the ASPI think tank published ‘Developing Australia’s Critical Minerals: Implementing the outcomes from the 2023 dialogue’, 24 recommendations for government and the private sector to support the development of viable and competitive alternative markets (to China) that offer products through secure supply chains

The 2023 Darwin Dialogue: developing Australia’s critical minerals and rare earths | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

(2) Jack Goldsmith (ASPI The Strategist) scrive del difficile lavoro per la regolamentazione dell’intelligenza artificiale in Australia. L’Autore nota che tale attività dovrebbe salvaguardare adeguatamente l’IA senza ostacolare la capacità di utilizzarla per la sicurezza nazionale

Jack Goldsmith (ASPI The Strategist) writes about the difficult job of regulating artificial intelligence in Australia. The author notes that such work should adequately safeguard AI without hindering the ability to use it for national security

Walking the artificial intelligence and national security tightrope | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

BELARUS

Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive a proposito dell’opposizione al regime bielorusso e sulla necessità sia più in linea con la realtà interna del Paese

Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the opposition to the Belarusian regime and the need for it to be more in line with the country’s internal reality

Belarusian Opposition Faces Domestic Realities – Jamestown

INDIA – CHINA

In un podcast per il think tank Brookings, due ex Ambasciatori indiani a Pechino, Vijay Gokhale e Shivshankar Menon, discutono della competizione tra India e Cina

In a podcast for the think tank Brookings, two former Indian Ambassadors in Beijing, Vijay Gokhale and Shivshankar Menon, discuss the competition between India and China

A big-picture look at the India-China relationship | Brookings

INDONESIA 

Evan A. Laksmana (IISS) scrive a proposito dell’Indonesia nel modernizzare le proprie attrezzature militari. L’Autore ricorda il piano di modernizzazione a lungo termine Minimum Essential Force (MEF),  pubblicato dal ministero della Difesa quasi quindici anni fa. All’inizio del 2023, l’Aeronautica, l’Esercito e la Marina indonesiani avevano realizzato rispettivamente il 51%, il 60% e il 76% del piano. Sulla base del MEF, il ministro della Difesa ha presentato il piano ‘Archipelagic Trident Shield’ che potrebbe costare fino a 125 miliardi di dollari nei prossimi 25 anni

Evan A. Laksmana (IISS) writes about Indonesia modernising its military equipment. The author recalls the long-term Minimum Essential Force (MEF) modernisation plan, published by the Ministry of Defence almost fifteen years ago. By early 2023, the Indonesian Air Force, Army and Navy had realised 51%, 60% and 76% of the plan respectively. Based on the MEF, the Defence Minister presented the ‘Archipelagic Trident Shield’ plan that could cost up to USD 125 billion over the next 25 years

What Indonesia’s retail approach to defence modernisation means (iiss.org)

KARABAKH

Vasif Huseynov (The Jamestown Foundation) descrive la complessa situazione nel Karabakh e le crescenti difficoltà di Mosca nel riuscire a mediare tra Azerbaijan e Armenia. Sono a rischio la sicurezza e la pace nel Caucaso meridionale

Vasif Huseynov (The Jamestown Foundation) describes the complex situation in Karabakh and Moscow’s increasing difficulties in mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Security and peace in the South Caucasus are at risk

Azerbaijan Moves to Disarm Karabakh Separatists (Part One) – Jamestown

MYANMAR

(1) Morgan Michaels (IISS) aggiorna la situazione in Myanmar. Mnetre le forze di opposizione hanno attaccato convogli e flottiglie del regime che trasportavano rifornimenti e rinforzi e infrastrutture, il regime ha dispiegato una maggiore potenza di fuoco e ha inviato unità avanzate per razziare e spopolare le comunità vicine. L’aggiornamento di questo mese analizza le recenti dinamiche nella Dry Zone, a Bago Est e a Kayah

Morgan Michaels (IISS) updates the situation in Myanmar. As opposition forces attacked regime convoys and flotillas carrying supplies and infrastructure, the regime deployed more firepower and sent advanced units to raid and depopulate neighbouring communities. This month’s update analyses the recent dynamics in the Dry Zone, East Bago and Kayah

Fighting rages along Myanmar’s transport routes – IISS Myanmar Conflict Map

(2) Andrew Selth (Lowy The Interpreter) scrive in termini critici dell’efficacia delle forze di opposizione alla giunta militare. Pur evidenziando passi in avanti da parte dell’opposizione, Selth invita a considerare con cautela i dati che vengono diffusi

Andrew Selth (Lowy The Interpreter) writes in critical terms about the effectiveness of the forces of opposition to the military junta. While highlighting steps forward on the part of the opposition, Selth urges caution about the data being released

How credible are the casualty figures coming out of Myanmar? | Lowy Institute

RUSSIA – AFRICA

Mathieu Droin e Tina Dolbaia (CSIS) scrivono che, dopo la scomparsa di Yevgeny Prigozhin e anche per ragioni legate alla guerra in Ucraina, si potrebbe affievolire la percezione del Cremlino come garante della sicurezza e della stabilità in Africa

Mathieu Droin and Tina Dolbaia (CSIS) write that, after the disappearance of Yevgeny Prigozhin and also for reasons related to the war in Ukraine, the perception of the Kremlin as the guarantor of security and stability in Africa may be weakening

Post-Prigozhin Russia in Africa: Regaining or Losing Control? (csis.org)

RUSSIA – CIRCASSIANS

Izzet Enunlu (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive a proposito della volontà della dispora circassa, in grande parte residente in Turchia, di rientrare nelle sue terre nel Caucaso settentrionale e dell’atteggiamento negativo del Cremlino

Izzet Enunlu (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the desire of the Circassian dispora, largely resident in Turkey, to return to their lands in the North Caucasus and the negative attitude of the Kremlin

Russia Blocks Circassians Return to Their Homeland – Jamestown

SOUTH CHINA SEA (CHINA-PHILIPPINES)

Cherry Hitkari (Lowy The Interpreter) scrive della tensione crescente nel Mar Cinese Meridionale. Nella improbabilità di un confronto militare, le divisioni dell’ASEAN e la debolezza dei Paesi rispetto alla Cina rendono la pace difficile. Secondo Hitkari, Pechino dovrebbe decrescere in bellicosità mentre Manila dovrebbe lavorare al rafforzamento di organizzazioni come l’ASEAN e alla promozione della cooperazione multilaterale per un dialogo pacifico

Cherry Hitkari (Lowy The Interpreter) writes about the growing tension in the South China Sea. In the unlikelihood of a military confrontation, ASEAN’s divisions and the countries’ weakness vis-à-vis China make peace difficult. According to Hitkari, Beijing should decrease in belligerence while Manila should work on strengthening organisations such as ASEAN and promoting multilateral cooperation for peaceful dialogue

How China sees its conflict with the Philippines | Lowy Institute

USA – EUROPE – UK

Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, Nicole Goldin, Mrugank Bhusari, Sarah Bauerle Danzman, Ambuj Sahu e Daniel McDowell (Atlantic Council) scrivono a proposito dello strumento ‘statecraft economico’ e di come, nell’attuale situazione geopolitica, debba essere utilizzato dai partner transatlantici

Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, Nicole Goldin, Mrugank Bhusari, Sarah Bauerle Danzman, Ambuj Sahu and Daniel McDowell (Atlantic Council) write about the instrument of ‘economic statecraft’ and how, in the current geopolitical situation, it should be used by the transatlantic partners

The US, EU, and UK need a shared approach to economic statecraft. Here’s where to start. – (atlanticcouncil.org)

 

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