Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Asia
(ThinkChina) Economist Alicia Herrero says that 5 August’s “Black Monday” global stock market rout may not be a one-off event. Much of the story will unfold in Asia. In particular, what happens in Japan’s financial markets may have global impacts and will surely have regional ripple effects.
Global stock market rout: Asian financial markets can see another meltdown (thinkchina.sg)
Australia – India
(Titiksha Vashist, Zoe Jay Hawkins – Lowy The Interpreter) Critical minerals – lithium, cobalt, copper, and other rare earths – have rising importance worldwide as the building blocks of the digital age and the transition to renewable and clean energy. Solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles all depend on these minerals, as do core elements of defence and telecommunications systems. The smartphone on which you’re probably reading this article relies on approximately 70 elements from the periodic table, uses rare earths such as yttrium to light up the colourful display, and a lithium-ion battery to power it. Global demand for critical minerals is estimated to be worth as much as US$378 billion. So, countries are understandably competing to fill the demand gaps across the value chain. Australia and India could together create a powerful new pathway for stronger bilateral cooperation in a sector that underpins the global green transition.
Bangladesh
(Ali Riaz – Atlantic Council) The spectacular and rapid fall of Sheikh Hasina and her regime, followed by her ignominious exit from Bangladesh on August 5, is not only unprecedented in the history of the nation, which has previously experienced several, albeit less dramatic mass upsurges and downfalls of dictators in its turbulent history. It also surprised many Bangladesh watchers. The aura of invincibility that she and her party created over the past decade and a half crumbled in a matter of hours. A few weeks of demonstrations led by students and joined by people from all walks of life brought down the state’s administrative edifice. Moreover, the demonstrations did so despite the fact that the most lethal state apparatuses—the police, the Border Guard Bangladesh, the Rapid Action Battalion, and Awami League activists—were unleashed against the protesters with shoot-on-sight orders during the state-imposed curfew. The country, which was standing at the crossroads of closed autocracy and a democratic turnaround since the stage-managed election in January, suddenly watched a groundswell that appeared to be unthinkable even days ago. Such dramatic developments have put the country in uncharted territory. Three aspects of the developing situation warrant attention.
Belarus
(Dmitry Bolkunets – The Jamestown Foundation) Western punitive sanctions against Belarus since 2020 may have done more to strengthen authoritarianism in Belarus and reinforce the country’s economic, political, informational, and military cooperation with Russia. Sanctions have negatively impacted the lives of ordinary citizens, making it harder to obtain visas, cross borders, and use banking services. All this has contributed to a rise in pro-Russian sentiments among the population. An alternative to the sanctions policy could be the concept of offering a deal to achieve specific goals and initiating criminal cases against representatives of the Lukashenka regime.
Sanctions Deepen Kremlin Influence in Belarus and Strengthen Lukashenka Regime – Jamestown
Bhutan
(Angana Kotokey – Vivekananda International Foundation) Climate change has become one of the most severe and complex challenges in the 21st century. While the world’s poorest countries bear little or no responsibility for climate change, they face grave social and economic consequences. The Himalayan region with a significant range of climate zones and habitats, with millions of people benefitting from Himalayan ecosystem services are facing the worst socio-economic consequences of climate change. Bhutan, which is a small land-locked South Asian country lies in the eastern Himalayas and is renowned for its stunning landscapes and rich cultural heritage. The environment in Bhutan is embedded with clean air, water, and ancient forests, with around more than 70 percent of the country remaining as forest. However, the rapid melting of glaciers and increasing temperatures in the last years are risking Bhutan’s extensive forest cover, rich biodiversity, and clean water resources. The paper below will highlight the key drivers contributing to climate change in Bhutan, followed by some of the strategic initiatives taken by the government in Bhutan to tackle climate change.
China
(Atlantic Council) The gulf between economic data and official pronouncements grew through the second quarter of 2024. Property markets, stock prices and consumer sentiment all indicated weakness while China showcased engagement with foreign investors and private Chinese firms to signal intent to boost activity. But new policy actions were not market friendly in the period before the July 2024 Third Plenum economic planning meetings. There were a few encouraging signs for foreign investors, including pledges to discipline local protectionism and arbitrary regulations, but these have been heard before, and “promise fatigue” is a serious problem. Most of the clusters we track showed limited progress or further divergence from OECD norms. On trade, China refused to acknowledge the legitimacy of the overcapacity concerns the world was alarmed about.
China Pathfinder: Q2 2024 update – Atlantic Council
China – USA
(ThinkChina) NUS academic Wenlan Qian asks: in the event of a hard landing for the US economy, will China be dragged down, or can it offer an alternative safer haven for capital?
Risk or opportunity? Outcomes for China amid fears of US recession (thinkchina.sg)
Cyber Warfare
(Jason Healey – War On The Rocks – Fall 2024) For decades, military practitioners and academics have come up with theories, evidence, and examples that indicate that offensive cyber operations might revolutionize modern warfare. Others have made an equally impressive case that refutes that such operations would even be relevant, making it hard to reach any definite conclusions. This paper introduces a novel analytical framework to assess offensive cyber operations based on the circumstances of their use across the different phases of war, from shaping operations prior to the conflict to the actual battlefield. This framework substantially simplifies the key questions of practitioners and academics in order to pose the more direct question: Where, when, and how might offensive cyber operations affect warfare outcomes, both today and in the future?
Djibouti
(Guled Ahmed – Middle East Institute) The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden, is a crucial chokepoint for global maritime commerce. It handles as much as 20% of international trade, 12% of seaborne oil trade, and 8% of liquefied natural gas shipments. Despite the strait’s importance, the waters around it have long been plied by smugglers of weapons and other illicit goods, dating back as far as the late 1800s, when the French took control of what is now Djibouti. Nearly a century and a half on, the country is an important player in trade in the Horn of Africa region, but it also serves as a conduit for Chinese influence, has been linked to malign actors like Iran and the Houthis, and has faced allegations of involvement in various grey and black market activities, including money laundering, illicit finance, oil smuggling, and weapons trafficking. These issues must be urgently addressed in the interest of regional stability and Djibouti needs to undertake serious reform efforts to overhaul its economic model, strengthen its sanctions and enforcement, shore up financial oversight, and enhance collaboration and cooperation with neighboring states.
European Union
(Heinrich Matthee – Emirates Policy Center) The European Union (EU) is experiencing a period marked by more inward-looking nations and a process of elite re-selection. However, decision-makers recognize the necessity of maintaining close alliances and partnerships within new multilateral frameworks. Geoeconomic competiveness and economic security will be the main policy priorities of the EU’s Strategic Agenda (2024-2029). This agenda will see increased influence from both national governments and EU a trade. For Gulf actors, it is prudent to evaluate and test the political changes and their relative impact on engagement at both the national and EU levels concerning economic, trade and investment issues.
Emirates Policy Center | EU turns to geoeconomic competitiveness and economic security (epc.ae)
Global Governance
(Jack A. Goldstone – Wilson Center) International migration is one of the most controversial issues for policymakers worldwide. Yet data show that global migration provides unequivocal economic benefits to receiving and sending countries, and to the migrants, with few if any of the cultural, criminal, or other alleged costs often cited against it.
The Case for International Migration | Wilson Quarterly
(Stephanie Bowen, Tyler Marshall – Wilson Center) As a civilization, we stand on the cusp of dramatic demographic change that over the next generation will transform the global workforce. In the coming decades, populations will shrink in regions that for the past half century have provided workers who have fueled the greatest spurt of global economic growth, technical innovation, and prosperity humankind has ever known. Rapid drops are expected in Asia and Latin America, while declines already underway in North America and Europe will persist. Economists and sociologists believe that to support current levels of global growth, the workforce needed to take us to the next level must come from a region expected to provide nearly the entire net increase of the world’s working age population over the next 20 years: the low- and middle-income nations of Africa. While there are other countries and regions experiencing their own population growth and youth bulges, it is the sheer size of Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth that has captured the attention of planners and policymakers.
The Workforce of the Future | Wilson Quarterly
(Sarah B. Barnes, Jay Gribble – Wilson Center) We’re often told that we’re living during a population crisis, a time of simultaneous concerns born of too many people to sustain necessary resources for a healthy planet, and too few working-age people to support a healthy economy. Population dynamics and trends are key to national and international security and contribute to the overall wellbeing of a society. Fertility, along with mortality and migration, is central to population and its importance to demographers, policymakers, economists, and a country’s development is without question. But focusing on population trends without considering the experiences of the billions of individuals who make up those trends—each with a unique life course, personal aspirations, and individual potential—establishes an unhealthy and dangerous tension that can strip women of their rights and leave them socially disenfranchised.
Moving Beyond Fertility Targets | Wilson Quarterly
(Mark Maslin, Shooka Bidarian – Wilson Center) The current climate and environmental crises mean we must plan for a net zero world that provides healthy and safe lives with low environmental impact for 10 billion people by 2050. At the same time, the world’s economy will double or possibly even triple. Managing these situations simultaneously is the challenge of our age. Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat to global, regional, and national security. At the same time, the global energy transition—which is critical to curbing climate change’s harshest impacts—is disrupting business in countries worldwide. Against this backdrop, the global population continues to increase. Currently at 8.2 billion, the UN predicts a peak of 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s. Much of that growth will occur in Sub-Saharan Africa where 600 million people still lack access to electricity, water, and sanitation. So, what does a climate-resilient world of 10.3 billion look like? And how do we ensure everyone has healthy, fulfilling, sustainable, and secure lives?
The Challenge of Our Age: Managing Climate, Population, and Migration | Wilson Quarterly
(Isabelle Tsakok – Policy Center for the New South) Millions are severely malnourished in a world where there is enough for all. Hunger and malnutrition stalk more than 3.1 billion people. Yet, widespread hunger in all its forms is a problem which has been largely solved at the macro level in today’s high-income, industrialized countries. Their “escape from hunger and premature death” is a fairly recent phenomenon. It began around 300 years ago, continued for most of the 20th century and is still ongoing today. The problems faced by poor countries nowadays are similar to those faced by today’s wealthy countries for over two centuries. What can we in the New South learn from the achievements and struggles of different countries around the world on how to achieve food security for all?
Food Security and Agri-Food Policies in the New South (policycenter.ma)
India
(Amita Batra – East Asia Forum) The global shift and restructuring of global value chains (GVCs) due to US–China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic have strengthened India’s position and potential for integration into GVCs. But India’s high tariffs, few deep free trade agreements, comparatively more protectionist markets and reluctance to upgrade domestic trade policies limit its attractiveness as a destination for relocating GVCs. To better leverage the potential gains from shifting GVCs, India must improve its trade openness and trade policy predictability.
Leveraging global value chains is key to India’s economic prosperity | East Asia Forum
(Leela Visaria – Wilson Center) On this World Population Day, July 11, 2024, two demographic events received worldwide attention. One, the United Nations noted that after an expected peak of about 10 billion, the global population will start a slow decline before the turn of the century. Two, India’s population (1.45 billion) surpassed that of China in 2024 and will continue to be the world’s most populated country this century, with the total population anticipated to hit 1.67 billion by 2050.
India’s People Power | Wilson Quarterly
(Labanya Prakash Jena, Prasad Ashok Thakur – Observer Research Foundation) Any reference to the word ‘war’ attracts controversies and evokes a negative connotation. However, the word ‘fight’ is positioned relatively favourably in the human lexicon and is frequently used in the context of actions taken to counter anthropogenic climate change and inter-party competition in electoral democracies and sporting arenas. In the military context, a ‘fight’ invokes intense emotions and a determination to overcome all possible obstacles to accomplish specific missions. All agencies and processes forego their silos and single-mindedly focus on leveraging their collective resources and capabilities to achieve a goal within pre-determined timelines. With the ‘fight’ against climate change entering increasingly consequential stages for the survival of diverse species, including humans, there may be management frameworks that can be borrowed from the ‘theatre-based command’ approach of the armed forces for rapid installation of renewable energy (RE) assets and evacuation of ‘green’ power from harsh/remote environments like deserts and high-seas for decarbonisation of India’s economy. This cohesive approach allows for personnel, assets, infrastructure, and logistics to be integrated to achieve the most favourable outcomes. Such tri-service common defence stations are expected to be strategically located nationwide with plans for interconnected logistics nodes.
India – Bangladesh
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) In Bangladesh, what began as student demonstrations against job quotas quickly turned into the downfall of the country’s longest-serving Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina. The protests, which began last month, turned violent on July 15 when the supporters of Hasina’s Awami League clashed with the students, prompting the government to use tear gas shells, impose curfews, internet blockades, and shoot-at-sight orders. The opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) were also quick to join the movement, which further exacerbated the violence.
A Post-Hasina Bangladesh Doesn’t Seem Like A Great Friend For India (orfonline.org)
(Harsh V. Pant, Sohini Bose – Observer Research Foundation) Bangladesh stands at a historic crossroads. Sheikh Hasina, serving her fifth term as Prime Minister, resigned and left the country amidst mass unrest, and an intermittent military government has taken control. The country’s future is in turmoil as the parliament has been besieged, the official residence of the former Prime Minister vandalised, her office burnt along with the Bangabhaban, and a statue of her father, who ironically is hailed as the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been defaced. As anarchic tendencies reign in the power vacuum left behind by a Prime Minister who ruled with an iron fist for 15 years, the situation is tense and bears important implications for India. In the past decade, New Delhi and Dhaka have been each other’s strongest ally in South Asia, unfurling pages of a “golden chapter” in their bilateral ties. However, as the current crisis unfolds, the dynamics of this relationship face unprecedented uncertainty.
A halt in Indo-Bangla ties (orfonline.org)
Iran – Latin America
(Danny Citrinowicz – INSS) In recent years, Iran has expanded its political, military, and economic foothold in Latin America in an effort to utilize to its advantage the political changes in the region, especially the rise to power of left-wing parties. Without the coordinated activity of the United States and its allies in Latin America, the spread of Iranian influence in the continent could reach levels that would threaten Israel’s fundamental interests in the region.
Jordan – MENA Region
(Theresa Fleitz, Irina Patrahau – HCSS) Migration is expected to grow substantially in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) up to 2050. While armed conflict, persecution and violence continue to be the leading drivers of migration, the role of climate change in driving migration has gained attention and will likely become central in the coming years. In light of these projections, it is essential for governments in the MENA region to develop strong strategies that can adequately address challenges, build resilience and respond to the growing migratory flows of the coming decades. Jordan’s adaptation to water challenges in light of the Syrian refugee inflow since 2013 serves as a useful starting point to identify learnings for future adaptation strategies.
Developing effective adaptation strategies to water scarcity: Lessons learned from Jordan – HCSS
Middle East
(Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Iranian Retaliation: Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7.
Hamas Succession: The Axis of Resistance and Iran are coalescing around Yahya Sinwar as Hamas’ new leader. Sinwar’s leadership is very unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist position on ceasefire and hostage negotiations in the Gaza Strip.
Houthis in Iraq: The death of a Houthi drone expert responsible for training Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in the July 30 US strike in Iraq indicates a possible Iranian-backed effort to improve the targeting capabilities of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias against both US forces and Israel. The Houthi decision to deploy this commander to Iraq to train Iraqi militias suggests that Iran and the Houthis seek to rapidly accelerate the training of these militias.
Russia and Iran: Russian officials are continuing coordination with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. Russia is also reportedly assisting Iranian efforts to improve its air defenses against Israeli attacks, according to the New York Times.
Iranian Nuclear Program: The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) highlighted a “notable increase” in Iranian statements on Iran’s ability to product a nuclear weapon, corroborating previous CTP-ISW reporting. CTP-ISW has noted that senior Iranian officials have normalized public discussions about Iran’s ability to procure a nuclear weapon.
Jordan: Qatari-owned, London-based al Araby al Jadeed reported on August 6 that Jordan expressed concern to Iraq about Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ presence along the Jordan-Iraq border, citing two Iraqi officials. Jordan is reportedly particularly concerned about the possibility that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will fire drones and missiles from areas close to the Jordanian border towards Israel.
Iran Update, August 7, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Nimrod Goren – ISPI – Middle East Institute) More than 300 days after the Hamas terror attack of October 7th, Israel is stuck in a war that the majority of its society wants to see end, with a governing coalition that most of its population wants to see changed. Just a couple of weeks after US officials stated that we are “closer now than we’ve been before” to an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, Israel finds itself instead as close as it has ever been to a war with the Iran-led axis.
(Jonathan Masters, Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States maintains a considerable military presence in the Middle East, with forces in more than a dozen countries and on ships throughout the region’s waters. That presence has expanded in 2024 as the United States focuses on deterring and defeating threats from Iran and its network of armed affiliates in the region, including Hamas (Gaza Strip), Hezbollah (Lebanon), the Houthis (Yemen), and several Iraq- and Syria-based militant groups.
(Louis René Beres – BESA Center) In world politics, it would seem obvious that sanity is better than madness. Upon reflection, however, the risks of nuclear war could be as high or higher among “sane” adversaries. For Israel, a country smaller than America’s Lake Michigan, a failure to understand this counterintuitive truth could hasten the onset of unprecedented hostilities with Iran. Most ominously, it could mean Israel’s eventually suffering an Iranian nuclear attack.
Madness, Sanity and Nuclear War in the Middle East (besacenter.org)
(Hani Suleiman – Emirates Policy Center) The assassinations of both Lebanese Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr and Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh marked a significant escalation by Israel, targeting two prominent figures within the “axis of resistance.” These actions were notable not only for the high-profile targets but also for the location of the targets: Hezbollah’s stronghold and deep within Tehran, which represented an affront to Iranian sovereignty and prestige. Netanyahu likely based these operations on his strong position in Washington, bolstered by his latest speech in Congress and the support he received from the Republican Party, especially considering the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House following November’s presidential election. While the eruption of a large-scale war between Israel and the Iranian “resistance axis” remains a possibility, the reluctance of Iran and Hezbollah to engage in such a conflict reduces its likelihood.
Immediate and effective international diplomatic engagement is essential to de-escalate the tension between Israel and the “resistance front” and to ensure reactions remain controlled, preventing a regional war scenario similar to the crisis following the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Morocco
(Henri-Louis Vedie – Policy Center for the New South) Avec un chiffre d’Affaires en hausse de 50 % par rapport à 2022, l’industrie pharmaceutique au Maroc a connu une année record en 2023. Cette étude est consacrée à l’une des trois composantes de ce secteur :la composante industrielle. Elle regroupe 50 Établissements pharmaceutiques industriels (EPI). (Source : la Direction des médicaments et de la pharmacie (DMP). L’analyse de chacun de ces EPI met en évidence un écosystème, amorcé dès 1933 avec la création de Pharma-Cooper. Écosystème constitué, en 2024, d’EPI, en synergie, dont les effectifs vont de quelques dizaines à plusieurs milliers. Écosystème très ouvert aussi à l’international, où 21 EPI sont des filiales marocaines de multinationales étrangères, leaders mondiaux dans leur domaine.
NATO
(Max Bergmann – War On The Rocks) Apart from the heat, the NATO summit went off without a hitch. Yes, Washington was consumed with the political whirlwind surrounding President Joe Biden. But for NATO, and the Biden administration, this was a mission accomplished: a no drama summit. NATO was back, returning to its Cold War roots deterring the Russians, adding new members, and seeing major increases in European defense spending. Nothing transformative was announced but not much was fought over, enabling the occasion to focus on celebrating NATO’s 75 years.
NATO Missed a Chance to Transform Itself – War on the Rocks
Nigeria
(Amarachi Nwosu – Wilson Center) Nigeria stands at a pivotal moment, a nation rich in diversity with more than 370 ethnic groups, each brimming with youthful potential that could reshape Africa’s future. With over 60% of its population younger than 25 years old, it is not only the continent’s most populous country, but a vibrant hub of innovation in finance, tech, agriculture, creative industries, and more. However, this demographic advantage comes with its own challenges.
Nigerian Youth in Focus: Africa’s Future in a Single Nation | Wilson Quarterly
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) In recent weeks, Russia has suffered significant personnel losses on the Ukrainian front and in Africa, which may influence the number of those willing to sign a military contract with the Ministry of Defense. Despite official declarations about the increasing number of contract soldiers, information from the regions shows that the number of volunteers prepared to be sent to war is declining. The Kremlin is finding new ways to recruit people to the front, from increasing cash payments to threats of fabricating criminal cases. The “new” approaches demonstrate how desperate Moscow is for more soldiers.
Russia Adopting Espionage Methods for Military Recruitment – Jamestown
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia’s Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7.
The Kremlin’s response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent.
Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov assessed on August 7 that Russian offensive potential will culminate within one and a half to two months, generally consistent with ISW’s assessment on current Russia’s offensive capabilities.
Head of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), Danielle Bell, stated that Russia has tortured 95 percent of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) in Russian detention.
The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission (CEC) announced on August 7 that it would not register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc in the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election and referendum.
A Russian court sentenced Andrey Kurshin, administrator of the “Moscow Calling” Russian ultranationalist milblogger Telegram channel, to six and a half years in prison on August 7 for publishing “fake” information about the Russian military.
Ukrainian forces recently regained positions south of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces advanced northeast of Siversk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Russian Army Combat Reserve (BARS) units continue recruitment efforts.
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) The security agreements under the Ukraine Compact, announced at the recent NATO summit, look considerably weaker and self-deterring when compared with the original blueprint of the 2022 Kyiv Security Compact. The chief merit common to both is the exclusion of Russia from security arrangements involving Ukraine. Unlike the recently announced nonbinding commitments, the 2022 blueprint had envisaged a system of guarantees and binding agreements between NATO member states and Ukraine. Russia can be expected to insist that any agreements between Ukraine and NATO member states are incompatible with Russia’s core objective to turn Ukraine into a permanently neutral and nonaligned state, with Moscow as a veto-wielding guarantor.
NATO States Undertake Security Commitments to Kyiv Under Ukraine Compact (Part Two) – Jamestown
Rwanda
(Ahmed Amal – Emirates Policy Center) The victory of Rwandan President Paul Kagame for a fourth term was expected, but the recent elections raise questions about Rwanda’s ability to maintain its strong development performance amid a closed domestic political environment and its continued efforts for regional expansion through interventions in neighbouring crises. With limited internal political constraints and Kagame’s track record of delivering acceptable development performance, the current balance between domestic control and regional expansion is likely to persist, bolstered by the renewed legitimacy of the ruling authority and sustained economic performance. Although the current Rwandan constitution allows Kagame to remain in office until 2034, his advanced age and the uncertainty surrounding his succession pose potential political crises that could impact the country’s regional leadership ambitions.
Turkey – Iraq
(Umud Shokri – Middle East Institute) On July 21, 2024, Baghdad inaugurated a new power line connecting Turkey and Iraq to handle Turkish electricity imports. This 115-kilometer (71-mile) transmission line is expected to deliver 300 megawatts of energy to a power station west of Mosul with the aim of supplying northern Iraq, including the regions of Nineveh, Salahuddin, and Kirkuk.
USA
(Noah Berman, Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate in the 2024 election. Walz has been Minnesota’s governor since 2019, and he previously served for twelve years in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Issue Guide: Tim Walz on Foreign Policy | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Jacob Heilbrunn – The National Interest) When Donald Trump picked JD Vance as his running mate, he whiffed. Overconfident in victory, he doubled down on the MAGA base. Has Kamala Harris now made the same mistake in choosing the sixty-year-old Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a hero to the progressive wing of the Democratic party who popularized the term “weird” to describe Trump and co.?
Does the Tim Walz Pick Matter? | The National Interest
(Lawrence J. Korb, Stephen Cimbala – The National Interest) The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump resulted in a media blitzkrieg of hysteria about Biden’s performance, which continued through the Republican convention and led to Biden’s eventual withdrawal from the race. The New York Times editorial board and other prestige media sites, supported by some leading Democratic fundraisers and politicians, including from the Democratic Senate and House leaders, called for Biden to withdraw from the race for the White House. It’s understandable to some extent that the media, whose professional obsession is with communication, and the many Democratic members of the House and Senate, who are concerned about their own elections, would declare Biden’s performance a disaster. On the other hand, with respect to the substance of policy, as opposed to the optics of stage performance, the debate was one blip in a journey that will require more months of campaigning and electioneering between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to sort out.
Where is U.S. Foreign Policy Headed? | The National Interest
Venezuela
(Amb JK Tripathi – Vivekananda International Foundation) The 28th July witnessed another presidential election marred by the allegations of large- scale fraud in Venezuela. Contrary to the predictions before the counting was over, the incumbent president from PSUV (the United Socialist Party of Venezuela) Nicolus’ Maduro, was declared winner by securing 51% votes as against 47% secured by his main opponent Edmundo González Urrutia.
West Africa
(Armsfree Ajanaku – Centre for Democracy and Development) From 9 to 11 July, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD West Africa) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) jointly organized a three-day conference to reflect on the threats posed by information manipulation. This convening which was supported by Global Affairs Canada (GAC) drew a diverse group of participants from West Africa, including from countries currently under military regimes, was the second time information integrity experts, journalists, academics, civic tech platforms, social media companies and civil society organizations were brought together by the CDD and NDI to brainstorm on the complex question of information manipulation and how to effectively tackle the problem. The crux of the conversation was about how information manipulation erodes and undermines citizens’ trust in democracy and its ancillary processes. As would be gleaned from the coup contagion, which led to democratic reversals in West Africa recently, the fall of democratically elected governments was preceded by various dimensions of information manipulation with certain foreign powers fingered as the masterminds.
