From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia-South Korea; Gulf; Indonesia; North Africa; Pacific; Russia; Russia-Baltic Region-Latvia; Russia-Sudan; South Korea; US-China-Gulf; US-Indo Pacific; US-Iran; Venezuela
Australia – South Korea
(Jennifer Parker – The Interpreter) When HMAS Toowoomba manoeuvred alongside ROKS Gang Gam-chan during Exercise Haidoli Wallaby in November 2023, the image crystallised a decade of quiet progress in Australia-Republic of Korea (ROK) naval relations. Ship visits are now routine and the biennial foreign and defence minister’s 2 + 2 dialogue nominates maritime security as a top priority. Yet despite being well-placed to achieve greater interoperability, especially technical interoperability (that is, the ability of hardware and software systems to communicate and work together), the naval relationship has in some ways plateaued. The establishment of a working group on naval interoperability could help address this, and reap the benefits of parallel naval modernisation efforts and increasing strategic alignment. – Australia-South Korea: The case for a new maritime focus | Lowy Institute
Gulf
(Emirates Policy Center) In recent years, the Gulf region has emerged as a central hub of action in the Middle East. Gulf countries are leading transformative initiatives and shifts ranging from climate change and the energy transition to digitalization, technology, artificial intelligence (AI) and data infrastructure. Trump’s recent Gulf tour consolidated the region’s pivotal role in shaping regional dynamics, demonstrating the feasibility of prioritizing development, prosperity and stability in a tough region for long burdened by internal and external conflicts. Today, the Gulf region serves as a model for the future of the Middle East, emphasizing the importance of nations harnessing their unique strengths to boost the region’s global importance, with energy being just one among many vital assets. – Emirates Policy Center | The New Comprehensive Leadership: How the Gulf is Leading Regional Initiatives and Rewriting Cultural Narratives
Indonesia
(Geo Dzakwan Arshali, Muhammad Izzuddin Al Haq – East Asia Forum) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s promises of fast economic growth and significant social changes now face several challenges. Concerns are mounting over the feasibility of his ambitious plans as goals of 8 per cent annual economic growth appear to become increasingly unachievable. The administration remains dedicated to expensive populist programs, including the free meal program, at the cost of severe budget cuts across crucial sectors. A course correction in policy and governance may be necessary to safeguard the administration’s legacy. – Grand promises meet hard realities in Prabowo’s Indonesia | East Asia Forum
North Africa
(Mohammed Mahmoud – Middle East Institute) Sustaining food security in North Africa is a complex and evolving challenge, influenced by the region’s arid climate, limited water resources, and sparse arable land. In response, efforts to enhance food security by governments, farmers, and non-governmental organizations have been centered on adopting climate-resilient agricultural practices, efficient irrigation techniques, and sustainable land-management strategies. Despite these efforts, food security in North Africa remains fragile due to systemic pressures on agricultural systems from climate change, water scarcity, and increasing market demands. By prioritizing improved water resource management, adopting efficient irrigation technologies, and diversifying agricultural practices, North Africa can not only bolster the resilience of its agricultural systems but also improve overall food security. – Managing Threats to Food Security: Water and Agricultural Resilience in North Africa | Middle East Institute
Pacific
(Jose Sousa-Santos – The Interpreter) The seizure of 4.8 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine in Fiji this month sheds light on the level of criminal infiltration and insider threat in the agencies entrusted with safeguarding the nation. Allegations are levelled against members of Fiji’s Counter Narcotics Bureau (CNB) and the Fiji Revenue and Customs Services (FRCS) over involvement in trafficking. A joint Fiji Police-FRCS operation led to the seizure of the methamphetamine hidden in packets of coffee from a Southeast African country at Nadi International Airport. Seven individuals have, so far, been charged, including two members of the CNB, the head of the FRCS intelligence unit, and a Nigerian national who attempted to flee Fiji. Fiji Police Commissioner Rusiate Tudravu has called for an urgent review of the CNB. Minister for Policing Ioane Naivalurua has since stated that the review is underway. Narco corruption is not new in the Pacific. As one Pacific official said to me in 2022, “We can’t trust our own organisation … and we have to keep our families safe.” And as the Pacific Islands Forum’s transnational crime disruption strategy highlights, criminal groups, through corruption and foreign interference, “can use their power to install governments which make the environment more permissive.” – From transit hub to drug market: Criminal syndicates transform Pacific threats | Lowy Institute
Russia
Russia – Baltic Region – Latvia
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s evolving military strategy in the Baltic region is shifting from predictable linear offensives to deceptive and flanking maneuvers, with a possible thrust through southeastern Latvia that could strategically fracture the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Baltic defense. Municipal governance vulnerabilities in Latvia, particularly in eastern cities such as Daugavpils and Rēzekne, create opportunities for Russian hybrid warfare, where Moscow could exploit institutional weaknesses to incite unrest or justify intervention. Sociopolitical alienation and Russian influence in the Latvian city of Latgale are deepening, with narratives of victimhood, resistance to state policies, and identity erosion creating conditions that are ripe for covert destabilization, disguised as local advocacy or crisis management. – Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part One) – Jamestown
Russia – Sudan
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s plans to create a naval base on the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea have been upset by drone attacks launched on Port Sudan in early May. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claimed responsibility for the attack. The destruction of Port Sudan’s infrastructure demonstrates that Sudan’s domestic instability would threaten a Russian base, potentially jeopardizing a broader arms-for-access agreement that included Sudan’s acquisition of Russian warplanes. Sudan accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying the People’s Republic of China (PRC)-made drones used in the attack. The UAE and the PRC may be acting to curb Russia’s naval ambitions. – Drone Attacks on Port Sudan Jeopardize Plan for Russian Red Sea Naval Base – Jamestown
South Korea
(Darcie Draudt-Véjares – Council on Foreign Relations) On June 3, Korean voters will head to the polls for a snap presidential election. The outcome will reverberate far beyond Korean domestic politics. – Duty Calls: Trump’s Tariffs and the Stakes of Korea’s Snap Election | Council on Foreign Relations
US – China – Gulf
(Emirates Policy Center) The impact of Trump’s tariffs on China’s economy was a key factor for Beijing’s decision to enter urgent negotiations with the US in Geneva, alongside Washington’s desire to resolve the trade dispute. The recent Sino-American tariff agreement signals a de-escalation of tensions but does not yet constitute a long-term trade peace deal. Achieving lasting trade stability will require extended and tough negotiations. A potential Sino-American trade agreement is unlikely to mark a major turning point in bilateral economic ties. Rather, strategic competition will remain the dominant force shaping long-term bilateral relations. The preliminary Sino-American trade agreement provides Gulf countries with an opportunity to evaluate world trade policies, assessing their potential advantages and drawbacks for regional markets. – Emirates Policy Center | Post US-China Tariff Agreement: Future Prospects and Implications for the Gulf
US – Indo Pacific
(William Choong – The Interpreter) When US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth steps up to the podium on Saturday at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, he will seek to reassure regional defence officials about the Trump 2.0 administration’s approach to the Indo-Pacific. Therein lies the problem: whatever Hegseth might say in terms of strategy or priorities will sound hollow compared to what the US has done since President Donald Trump came to power on 20 January. Successive US administrations (including Trump’s first) have been remarkably consistent in their approach to the region: working with allies and partners, promoting freedom of navigation, urging against any recourse to the use of force and fostering prosperity. During his first term, Trump even called for a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, a concept borrowed from Shinzo Abe’s Japan. – Pete Hegseth’s impossible mission to reassure Asian allies at Shangri-La | Lowy Institute
US – Iran
(Soufan Center) After five rounds of U.S.-Iran negotiations since April 12, U.S. and Iranian negotiators remain at odds on the key question of Iranian enrichment of uranium. Under Omani mediation, Iranian and U.S. representatives might sidestep the enrichment question by exploring an interim accord to build confidence and set the stage for a comprehensive pact. A leading concept for an interim accord would provide for a years-long freeze on uranium enrichment in exchange for modest U.S. sanctions relief. U.S. intelligence has detected clear signs that Israel is planning a major strike on Iran’s key nuclear facilities should the U.S.-Iran talks collapse. – U.S.-Iran Talks Inconclusive After Five Rounds – The Soufan Center
Venezuela
(Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Henry Ziemer, Rubi Bledsoe, and Natalia Hidalgo – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On May 25, Venezuela held regional and parliamentary elections. Amid an environment of political repression, piddling voter turnout, and a boycott by the mainstream opposition, the regime claimed a handy victory with more than 80 percent of the vote. But the patina of legitimacy accorded by the vote does little to remedy the situation for ordinary Venezuelans and may in fact embolden the regime to pursue a more aggressive stance, including against neighboring Guyana, where the simmering conflict has been stoked in the lead-up to the election. – The Maduro Regime Held Another Sham Election—What Happens Now?
