From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Africa; Al Shabab-Houti-Red Sea Region; Germany; Pakistan; Poland; Philippines; Russia; Somalia; Syria; Taiwan; Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan; US Tariffs
Africa
(Africa Center for Strategic Studies) Africa is at the center of rising global demand for critical minerals and metals such as lithium, graphite, cobalt, coltan, manganese, platinum, tantalum, and bauxite needed to support modern technologies and manufacturing. African countries hold sizable shares of known reserves for many of these critical minerals. Key sectors reliant on these critical minerals include automotive and aeronautical systems, mobile phones, computers, electronics, energy, medical technologies, and steel production, among others. Such minerals are also increasingly taking center stage in global geopolitics as China accounts for 87 percent of the global processing of strategic and rare earth minerals. Previous eras of natural resource extraction from Africa have been highly disruptive and destabilizing, contributing to what became known as the natural resource curse, where countries with relatively more abundant natural resources tended to become more autocratic, corrupt, and conflict prone while lagging in their development. This instability, in turn, made investing in Africa less attractive to countries and companies committed to higher standards of transparency and mutually beneficial partnerships. To examine how Africa can manage the latest surge in demand for critical resources to advance its long-term security and economic prosperity while forging stable, mutually beneficial external partnerships, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies spoke with a leading African authority in African strategic minerals and mineral supply chains, Christian-Géraud Neema. Mr. Neema worked as a project manager for a Congolese mining company in his native Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a consultant on good governance and policy advocacy, and an advisor to governments and foreign firms on mining issues. Mr Neema is the Africa editor of the China-Global South Project where he manages its interactive database on mining, production, and supply in the DRC. He also serves as a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. – Africa’s Critical Minerals at a Critical Juncture – Africa Center
Al Shabab – Houti – Red Sea Region
(Africa Center for Strategic Studies) Evidence of growing collaboration between al Shabaab in Somalia and Yemen’s Houthis is heightening risks to maritime traffic in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Western Indian Ocean while strengthening the disruptive capacity of both groups. In a show of support for Hamas in its conflict with Israel, the Houthis have used drones, missiles, and small boats since November 2023 to target over 100 commercial vessels (striking 48, including 6 that were incapacitated) attempting to traverse the 70-mile long and 20-mile wide (at its narrowest) Bab al Mandab Strait separating Africa from the Arabian Peninsula. Piracy in the region has also spiked. There had been minimal piracy activity since 2015, and the last hijacking was in 2019. Since November 2023, however, there have been 47 piracy-related events in the Gulf of Aden and Western Indian Ocean. The rise in insecurity has had direct economic impacts on the global economy. Shipping through the Suez Canal (which accounts for about 12-15 percent of worldwide trade and 30 percent of container ship traffic) has dropped by 50-60 percent. – Expanding Al Shabaab–Houthi Ties Escalate Security Threats to Red Sea Region – Africa Center
Germany
(Julika Enslin – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) Today, Germany is facing heightened security alerts due to Islamist terror threats at Christmas markets in the winter, Carnival parades in the spring, public festivals, pedestrian areas, protests, and at Israeli diplomatic missions and Jewish institutions. Over the last five years, authorities have seen younger perpetrators, new online spaces for radicalization, and new targets. Attackers are using familiar methods of attack and declaring support to well-known groups such as the Islamic State. This article provides an overview of the key developments in the Islamist terror threat in Germany between 2020 and 2025 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. It concludes with an analysis of the five most notable trends according to the data regarding attack vectors, terrorist profiles, propaganda and recruitment, the impact of October 7, and the role of foreign intelligence. – The Evolution of the Islamist Terror Threat Landscape in Germany Since 2020 – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Pakistan
(Vinay Kaura – Middle East Institute) The iron grip of Pakistan’s military establishment upon the nation’s political system endures as the most potent force shaping its governance. The elevation of Gen. Asim Munir to the rank of field marshal, announced on May 20, is a thunderous declaration of the military’s unassailable supremacy, a gesture that reverberates far beyond the barbed-wire perimeters of the Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. As his elevation followed the short military clash with India in early May in which Pakistan was quick to claim strategic gains, the conflict was likely the proximate factor in his ascent. It is a message both to Pakistan’s citizens — that the barracks rule the ballot — as well as to the international community — that the guardians of the state are now, more than ever, its rulers. – Deepening Pakistan’s enduring civil-military imbalance | Middle East Institute
Poland
(Atlantic Council) Poles will vote for their next president on June 1. Depending on the outcome, this election could kick off a period of political stability—or further cement a gridlock that could lead to the government collapsing. In the October 2023 parliamentary elections, current Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s center-right Civic Coalition (KO) ended eight years of rule by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party and formed a broad government consisting of centrists, liberals, socialists, and greens. However, Tusk does not command a three-fifths majority in the Sejm (the lower house of parliament), which is needed to override any potential presidential veto. President Andrzej Duda, formally from PiS, has delayed or blocked many of the prime minister’s domestic legislative reforms. But now, Duda’s two terms are up. Two candidates will face off in a final round: Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw from KO, and Karol Nawrocki, head of the Institute for National Remembrance, who is tied to PiS. Ahead of the second round, Aaron Korewa, director of the Atlantic Council’s Warsaw Office, breaks down the race and the potential impacts on Poland’s foreign policy. – Your primer on the Polish presidential election – Atlantic Council
Philippines
(Soufan Center) The Philippines has begun to turn the corner in its fight against terrorism, making steady progress countering a range of militant groups in the country. Local government and local civil society organizations working in partnership have achieved tangible successes in demobilizing, disengaging, and reintegrating militants from both Islamist extremist and communist groups. The 2025 Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) elections will have a profound impact on determining whether demobilization and disengagement continue. The Daulah Islamiyah Maute Group remains a potent jihadist threat to the Philippines. – Demobilization and Disengagement: Lessons from the Philippines – The Soufan Center
Russia
(llya Ponomarev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian opposition is currently fractured, dominated by ideologically diverse groups that lack a coherent strategy, shared goals, or political legitimacy. Many function more as protest movements than viable alternatives to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Several different organizations lead the opposition, including the Anti-Corruption Foundation (ACF), the Anti-War Committee (AWC), the Free Russia Forum (FRF), and the Congress of People’s Deputies (CPD), as well as moderate urbanist reformers, each pursuing distinct strategies. A new resistance movement has emerged, involving over 10,000 people—including fighters on Ukraine’s frontlines and guerrillas within Russia—who are actively challenging Putin’s regime through direct engagement, offering a new model of sacrifice for change. Initiatives, such as the CPD, are proactively crafting constitutional reforms and legislative frameworks to ensure that a democratic, decentralized, and rights-respecting Russia is prepared following a regime change. Western powers hesitate to support armed opposition groups, favoring moderate exiles, but embracing the full spectrum of the Russian opposition, especially those risking their lives in active resistance, would facilitate unity and democratic transition. – Russian Opposition and Russian Resistance: The Landscape Before the Battle for Power – Jamestown
(Anna J. Davis – The Jamestown Foundation) The Knyaz Pozharsky, Russia’s newest Borei-A class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, is slated to join the Northern Fleet in June 2025. Moscow presents the Borei-A submarine class as one of the most advanced in terms of design and capabilities, making it the basis of Russia’s naval strategic nuclear forces for the coming decades. The development reflects Russia’s ongoing naval modernization and evolving nuclear deterrence posture, as well as Moscow’s commitment to bolstering the Northern Fleet, particularly in relation to military and economic contestation in the Arctic. – Russia Prepares to Add Newest Nuclear-Powered Submarine to the Northern Fleet – Jamestown
Somalia
(Daisy Muibu, Yayedior Mbengue – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) Nearly three years after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the security landscape remains precarious. Al-Shabaab has resurged, coordination between federal and Puntland forces is limited despite Islamic State-Somalia’s growing global remit, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. These trends are driven by political discord, a fragmented national landscape, donor fatigue, operational challenges, and al-Shabaab’s resilience. This article offers a comprehensive overview of current security efforts and evaluates the drivers shaping Somalia’s precarious trajectory, concluding that political compromise is essential to effectively counter the dual threats posed by al-Shabaab and Islamic State-Somalia. – Somalia at a Crossroads: Resurgent Insurgents, Fragmented Politics, and the Uncertain Future of AUSSOM – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Syria
(Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) Despite concerns about al-Qa`ida’s influence in Syria, the organization experienced a reversal in its fortunes over the course of the Syrian civil war. This article traces the history of the rise of Syria’s al-Qa`ida-loyalist outfit Hurras al-Din (“Guardians of the Religion”), its subsequent marginalization by the then dominant insurgent actor Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in northwest Syria, and its final dissolution following the fall of the Assad regime. The history of Hurras al-Din and HTS’ own break from al-Qa`ida points to a major setback for al-Qa`ida in Syria, with any existing threat from al-Qa`ida’s networks in Syria easily containable by U.S. strikes against its personnel with the acquiescence if not cooperation of the new Syrian government. – Hurras al-Din: The Rise, Fall, and Dissolution of al-Qa`ida’s Loyalist Group in Syria – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Taiwan
(Courtney Donovan Smith – The Jamestown Foundation) Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has jettisoned a Tsai Ing-wen era formula designed to keep peace between factions within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and has actively advanced his own New Tide faction. Lai’s more control-oriented approach has given the president increased leverage over the executive branch, the party’s minority legislative caucus, and the DPP. Pushback from factions has already occurred and will likely increase as by-elections and primaries for next year’s local elections start to take place through the rest of the year, while simultaneously providing opposition parties with ammunition to campaign on. It is too soon to determine if Lai’s strategy of consolidating and streamlining of control and decision making will increase successful outcomes, or if he has sown the seeds of intensifying internal party division. – Taiwan’s Lai risks DPP factional Infighting in Bid for Control – Jamestown
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
(Saif Tahir, Amira Jadoon – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) This study examines the geographical origins, mobility patterns, and demographic characteristics of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants through an analysis of 615 profiles from the organization’s own martyrdom commemorative publications spanning 2006-2025. The findings reveal several important trends: the dominance of religious education among militants with identifiable educational data (120 profiles), particularly among commanders and suicide attackers; and the reemergence of new recruitment centers, particularly in Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province, which appears to have supplanted North Waziristan as a primary operational hub. The data also demonstrates TTP’s strategic expansion beyond traditional strongholds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into southern Punjab, urban areas of Sindh, and specific regions in Balochistan. The study also finds that suicide operatives are predominantly from KPK districts Dera Ismail Khan, North Waziristan, Bannu, and Khyber. Role distribution analysis reveals commanders (38.2% of all profiles) were disproportionately represented in cross-border movements (56% of all cross-border movements), while suicide operatives were concentrated in inter-provincial deployments (17.3%). Most significantly, the data reflects increased cross-border mobility between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with KPK-born militants comprising 82 out of 84 Afghanistan-based casualty cases, illuminating the cross-border regional dimensions of this resurgent insurgency. While these insights are based on TTP’s own materials, and therefore have limitations, the trends observed provide unique insights into TTP’s ongoing operational evolution and highlight potential vulnerabilities in its recruitment and deployment architecture. – Leaders, Fighters, and Suicide Attackers: Insights on TTP Militant Mobility Through Commemorative Records, 2006-2025 – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
US Tariffs
(Council on Foreign Relations) The Court of International Trade’s ruling on Donald Trump’s tariffs is the most consequential potential setback for the president’s trade agenda to date. – All Rise for Trade Court | Council on Foreign Relations
(Brad W. Setser – Council on Foreign Relations) The U.S. federal court ruling that President Trump had overstepped his authority on imposing tariffs marked a clear setback for the administration. But any global cheering has been tempered by the recognition that U.S. officials have other tools for authorizing penalties, and that an appellate court has reinstated some tariffs. – Relief and Realism: Global Reactions to U.S. Tariff Rulings | Council on Foreign Relations
(Atlantic Council) From Beijing to Buenos Aires, they’re glued to US court dockets. US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime was thrown into legal limbo this week, thanks to decisions from the New York–based US Court of International Trade and a Washington, DC–based US district judge. Both rulings found that Trump overstepped with the emergency authorities he used for his April 2 “liberation day” tariffs, but the tariffs remain in place for now thanks to a stay granted by a Washington–based appeals court—with this battle likely heading to the US Supreme Court. The legal whiplash comes as countries around the world scramble to negotiate deals with the Trump administration before the global “reciprocal” tariffs kick in on July 9. But are their calculations now changing? – Experts react: How the world is responding to the courtroom drama around Trump’s tariffs – Atlantic Council
