From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : ASEAN, Cambodia-Vietnam, Germany, Greenland-US, India, Indonesia, Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Middle East, Mongolia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Syria, Türkiye-Africa, UN, US
ASEAN
(Selma Fitri Ayuanshari – East Asia Forum) ASEAN’s healthcare sector is undergoing a significant digital transformation, with innovations like Singapore’s HealthHub and Indonesia’s SATUSEHAT improving access and quality. A transformation that provides region-wide benefits must confront challenges including interoperability, cybersecurity risks and public distrust. To fully integrate digital health, ASEAN must harmonise regulations, enhance cross-border collaboration and balance data protection with innovation. – Fixing the fractures in ASEAN’s digital health services | East Asia Forum
Cambodia – Vietnam
(Mom Mit, Prom Thary, Meas Somica – East Asia Forum) Cambodia’s agricultural sector is rich in potential but constrained by the Kingdom’s focus on raw material exports. While Vietnam processes these raw goods into higher-value products, Cambodia’s farmers face stagnant incomes due to high production costs and limited access to advanced technology. The Kingdom’s limited agro-processing capacity and high logistics costs exacerbate this imbalance. For Cambodia to capitalise on its agricultural advantages, it must invest in processing infrastructure, reduce costs and build a skilled workforce for value-added industries. – Cambodia struggles to harvest its agricultural potential while Vietnam reaps the benefits | East Asia Forum
Germany
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) German elections this week have once again underlined that Europe’s political landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won, but the star of the election night was Alternative for Germany, or AfD, which managed to double its support in just four years to 20.8%, emerging as the second biggest political force in the nation’s parliament. The normalisation of AfD is the new reality in a country where it is gaining ground by the day. From the east, where it had been traditionally dominant, today its influence is also visible in the west. For a party that has been designated as right-wing extremist by the domestic intelligence in three states, these are remarkable gains. – Is The German ‘Firewall’ Crumbling?
Greenland – US
(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) Over the recent weeks, the United States’ President Donald Trump has expressed his imminent interest in purchasing Greenland, a self-governed island of Denmark. Trump has repeatedly stated that Greenland is critical for American national and economic security and, therefore, should be made a part of the US. This idea was met with scepticism from the Greenlanders, mainland Danes, and Europeans, who viewed it as expansionist and imperial, with the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stating that her country is not for sale. – Greenland and the US: Will Trump’s Arctic vision prevail?
India
(Diptendu Choudhury – Observer Research Foundation) India’s urgent search for 114 multi-role fighter aircraft and aspiration for the fifth-generation development programme just got more complicated. United States (US) President Donald Trump has sprung a surprise offer of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), while the Russians have offered to partner with India on their S-57 E Felon production with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) by this year itself. These offers have caught the mainstream and social media’s attention, fuelling widespread debate and speculation. With the US actively leveraging the imposition of trade tariffs while boosting military sales to India, the offer comes with added complexities. Two questions immediately come to the fore: Does the platform satisfy the operational requirements of the Indian Air Force (IAF) with its depleting fighter squadron bench strength? Does the deal make strategic sense for India’s geopolitical dynamics? – The F-35 gamble: Will India roll the dice?
Indonesia
(Agung Satyadini – East Asia Forum) Indonesia faces the challenge of increasing tax revenue while ensuring social equity. A potential solution is a modernised value-added tax system that maintains a uniform rate across all goods and services while implementing real-time digital compensation for low-income households. By leveraging the Core Tax Administration System and existing digital payment infrastructure, this reform could generate billions in revenue for public services while protecting vulnerable populations. The timing is ideal, as Indonesia’s growing digital adoption and tax modernisation efforts create perfect conditions for implementation. – Indonesia must pursue a progressive value-added tax system | East Asia Forum
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
(Fuad Shahbazov – Just Security) Turkey’s Interior Ministry conducted large-scale raids in 51 cities, including the Kurdish-majority city of Diyarbakir in the southeast, on Feb. 18, arresting 282 people for alleged ties with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The arrests stirred heated debate within Turkish society, constituting renewed pressure on the group but also sending mixed signals amid a new bid by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resolve the decades-long insurgency by the PKK and strike a peace deal that could put an end to one of the most violent conflicts in the region. The attempt at a rapprochement is the first sustained effort since the two sides tried – but failed – to reconcile in 2014. Just yesterday, the PKK’s imprisoned founder and longtime leader, Abdullah Ocalan, issued an unprecedented call from prison saying, “all groups must lay down their arms and the PKK must dissolve itself.” – Turkey, PKK Pursue Peace Amid Possible Erdogan Power Play
Middle East
(UN News) As the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal concludes, UN Secretary-General António Guterres is closely following developments in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory. – Guterres urges parties to find a way forward on next phase of Gaza ceasefire | UN News
Mongolia
(Tuvshintugs Batdelger – East Asia Forum) Despite global uncertainty, Mongolia’s new government is working to maintain economic growth which is fuelled by strong export performance and fiscal expansion. But structural challenges such as the severe contraction of the agricultural sector due to harsh weather conditions, potential disruptions resulting from factors such as petroleum supply from Russia, a slowing Chinese economy and increased budget spending could test the country’s resilience. – Mongolia keeps mining for growth amid economic uncertainty | East Asia Forum
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(UN News) Communities on the frontline of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are being killed, injured and displaced on a daily basis, as the war grinds on. “In the last six months alone, more than 200,000 people have been evacuated from frontline areas in the east and north,” said Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees on the three-year anniversary of the war on Monday 24 February. Mr. Grandi added that, since the start of the war, around 10.6 million people have been forced from their homes. While most fled during the early stages of the Russian invasion, he said, the displacement and suffering continues. – Ukrainians continue flee the frontline, as war stretches into fourth year | UN News
Syria
(Beatrice Eriksson – Just Security) The dawn of an uncertain new era in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime intensifies the urgency of resolving a long-simmering issue: the fate of the alleged Islamic State affiliates and their family members, including children, who have languished in massive, crowded, unlawful detention camps and makeshift prisons in northeastern Syria for six years or more years. The West and other States have a particular responsibility for their approximately 8,500 children and women stranded there who are from countries other than Syria and Iraq. The Syrian regime’s collapse is opening opportunities to remove previous barriers and re-establish diplomatic channels, so there are now no justifiable reasons for States such as Sweden, Tunisia, Australia, and others to continue delaying repatriating their citizens and their families. It is a matter not only of justice, law, and human dignity, but also an obligation to relieve Syrians of this war legacy as they rebuild their society. – States Must Take Responsibility for IS-Affiliated Prisoners, Families
Türkiye – Africa
(Yuvvraj Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Experts and observers have spent considerable time and resources studying the footprint of major global powers, such as China, Russia, and the United States (US), on the African continent and predicting their next moves. While a similar focus on the ‘middle powers’ operating in Africa has been few and far between, it becomes imperative to attach similar importance to their actions and ambitions in the continent. These states, from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia to South Korea and India, have increasingly emerged as key bilateral partners, aid providers, and strategic investors in Africa. The primary among them has been Türkiye, a country aiming to step up its trade with Africa to US$50 billion, witnessing a tenfold increase since the turn of the century. – Türkiye’s investments in African ports: An indicator of its growing heft
UN
(Richard Gowan, Lawfare) On Feb. 24, the United Nations Security Council and General Assembly held meetings to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. What should have been a pro forma affair became a near fiasco after the U.S., which worked closely with Kyiv and European countries to condemn Russia at the UN in the Biden era, made a startling change of tack. The U.S. attempted to block a Ukrainian-European General Assembly resolution reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and tabled an alternative resolution referring to the need for peace without citing any conditions. Ultimately, both passed, although the U.S. abstained on its own text after France led a push to add amendments referring to Ukraine’s rights under international law. Washington did, however, push through a slimline Security Council resolution citing the need for peace that China and Russia supported. European members of the council, including France and Britain, abstained. – The UN Between Decline and Renewal | Lawfare
US
(Justin Hendrix, Just Security) On Jan. 22, 2025, three Democratic members of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board (PCLOB)—an intelligence watchdog established in 2004 and charged with monitoring the government’s compliance with procedural safeguards on surveillance activities—were terminated by President Donald Trump. I recently interviewed one of them, and in the transcribed interview below, we discuss the significance for privacy protections, EU-US data transfers, and more. – “Fired” Member of PCLOB Discusses What’s at Stake
(Scott R. Anderson, Elena Chachko – Lawfare) On Feb. 12, President Trump issued an executive order entitled “One Voice for America’s Foreign Relations.” Students of foreign relations law and executive power will immediately recognize this language. The “one voice” doctrine traces back to key judicial decisions in foreign relations law. It maintains that the nation must speak with one voice in foreign affairs. And that voice is generally the president’s. Yet the executive order goes far beyond affirming the president’s primacy as international communicator-in-chief. Stating in its opening sentence that “Article II of the United States Constitution vests the power to conduct foreign policy in the President of the United States,” the executive order asserts a maximalist view of the president’s constitutional foreign affairs authority. By repeatedly discussing “the President’s foreign policy,” it implies, incorrectly, that Congress has little to no role to play in the conduct of foreign affairs, and that legislators are powerless to override the president or direct executive branch personnel in this area. The Supreme Court has long declined to affirm that view even while deferring extensively to the president in matters of foreign affairs and national security. – ‘One Voice’ and the Trump Administration’s Conduct of Foreign Affairs | Lawfare
