From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Azerbaijan; China; Europe; G20; Georgia-Ukraine; Jordan; Lebanon-Hezbollah; Palestine Liberation Organization; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); US; US-Middle East
Azerbaijan
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan has launched the second phase of the Port of Baku’s expansion, aiming to support its growing role in transcontinental trade as the region seeks alternative routes to Europe. Regional instability and Western sanctions on Russia due to its war against Ukraine have increased the importance of the Middle Corridor, which passes through the Port of Baku, as a vital trade route. Increased collaboration with the European Union, the People’s Republic of China, and other regional players, along with infrastructure upgrades and digitalization initiatives, is transforming the Port of Baku into a key transport hub. – The Port of Baku Facilitates Trans-Eurasian Commerce (Part One) – Jamestown
China
(Willy Wo-Lap Lam – The Jamestown Foundation) A lack of viable challenger suggests that Xi Jinping will remain in power, even if he is more vulnerable today, and his power more curtailed, than in years past. Personnel purges of Xi’s allies across the top echelons of the military since 2023 could indicate that his enemies in the People’s Liberation Army are gunning down his protégés to weaken the power base of the “core of the Party center.”. Purges of Xi’s allies have extended to the state apparatus, most notably with Li Ganjie (李干杰) losing control of the Organization Department after just two years at the helm, and possibly to the domestic security apparatus, following the rise of Qin Yunbiao (秦运彪), who is not tied to Xi, as Beijing’s deputy major and head of its police department. – The Port of Baku Facilitates Trans-Eurasian Commerce (Part One) – Jamestown
Europe
(Atlantic Council) Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis discusses the EU’s strategic priorities for trade, defense, and competitiveness in a rapidly shifting global landscape in conversation with the Atlantic Council’s Jörn Fleck on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings. – EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis: With the rules-based order in question, Europe’s ‘boring democracies’ offer ‘certainty and a safe haven’ – Atlantic Council
G20
(Colin I. Bradford, Brahima Sangafowa Coulibaly – Brookings) The Group of Twenty (G20) has held summits every year since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 with the agenda evolving in response to shifts in the global economy, systemic challenges, and geopolitics. The G20 presidency of South Africa this year marks the end of a full rotation of the hosting function among all 19 countries of the G20. This milestone presents an opportune moment to reflect on the historical trajectory of this global economic governance body, assess its strengths and achievements, examine its challenges and limitations, and propose improvements for the future. Over the years, many observers have criticized G20 summits as mere “talk shops” and for not moving decisively from crisis response to proactive global governance. While there are areas for improvement, a review of the G20’s evolution highlights a remarkable transformation. From an ad hoc response to the GFC, it has evolved into a central pillar of international cooperation—shaping global trajectories across finance, economics, technology, health, climate, and society. After 18 years of experience, involving tens of thousands of politicians, policymakers, and societal leaders throughout each year, the G20 has demonstrated that it is indeed “fit for purpose” at this crucial moment of competing perspectives on the global future. Indeed, the world is undergoing one of the most profound transformations in global economic relations and facing the greatest test of international governance since World War II. In this context, the G20 has proven to be an indispensable platform—not only through its annual leaders’ summits but also through its multilayered, yearlong process involving ministers, sherpas, senior officials, and civil society leaders across a wide range of sectors. Its ability to convene nations with vastly different cultures, interests, and perspectives—and to keep them at the table despite tensions, rivalries, or even war—is one of its greatest strengths. The G20 serves as a vital arena where global governance plays out in real time amid deep uncertainty and geopolitical strain. Despite its past success, there is room to enhance the G20’s effectiveness and impact. Key areas for improvement include strengthening personal dynamics among leaders; enhancing continuity and sustained engagement; improving public communication and domestic outreach; and restoring public confidence in leadership and markets. To bolster its credibility, the G20 should also revisit practices from its most effective years—particularly the use of action-oriented communiqués with clear timelines. Reinstating this approach would help translate consensus into concrete outcomes and reinforce trust in the G20’s ability to make meaningful progress on economic cooperation and global challenges. – Strengthening cooperation for a changing world: The evolving role of the G20 in global economic governance
Georgia – Ukraine
(Zaal Anjaparidze – The Jamestown Foundation) The diplomatic relationship between Georgia and Ukraine has reached its lowest historical point as both sides lack the political will necessary to normalize relations. Kyiv and Tbilisi’s continuing estrangement is a result of strained relations between the ruling party of Georgia and the West, and the overly cautious approach of the Georgian government to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Georgian–Ukrainian relations are unlikely to normalize anytime soon unless a pro-Western government comes to power in Georgia, which is currently improbable. – Georgian–Ukrainian Relations Experience Lowest Point in Diplomatic Relations – Jamestown
Jordan
(Ghaith al-Omari – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) As revelations continue to unfold about the group’s involvement in militant plots, weapons smuggling, and coordination with foreign accomplices, Amman will likely feel obligated to crack down—the question is how much? – The Brotherhood May Have Pushed Jordan Too Far This Time | The Washington Institute
Lebanon – Hezbollah
(David Schenker – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) With the group and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point in decades, Beirut has a real opportunity to restore its sovereignty, but waiting for another futile “national dialogue” may close that window. – There Is No Better Time to Disarm Hezbollah | The Washington Institute
Palestine Liberation Organization
(Neomi Neumann – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Although President Abbas seems more focused on meeting diplomatic expectations abroad than dealing with burning issues at home, officials should still push him to propose something beyond cosmetic change—both to address the reality in the West Bank and, perhaps, to legitimize the PA’s eventual return to Gaza. – How to Ensure the PLO Meeting Goes Beyond Token Reforms | The Washington Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Steven Pifer – Brookings) Steve Witkoff, a businessman who serves as President Donald Trump’s lead negotiator with Moscow on brokering an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, has asserted a settlement is “emerging.” He believes it will be more than a ceasefire and sees the possibility of a “permanent peace.”. A just and durable peace that brings an end to this brutal war would certainly be welcome. However, the details described by Witkoff to date leave considerable doubt about the prospects of his plan. He has described and reportedly advocates terms that blatantly favor Moscow and could prove unacceptable to Kyiv. Part of the problem may stem from the way in which the administration has structured its negotiations with Russian and Ukrainian officials. – Is a deal really emerging on Russia-Ukraine?
US
(Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump has made reducing U.S. trade deficits, which have expanded significantly in recent decades, a priority of his administration. He and his advisors argue that renegotiating trade deals, promoting “America First” policies, and confronting China and the rest of the world over what they see as economic distortions will shrink trade deficits, create jobs, strengthen national security, and restore the “golden age of America.”. Many economists and trade experts do not believe that trade deficits hurt the economy and warn against trying to “win” the trade relationship with particular countries. Others, however, believe that sustained trade deficits can be a problem. There is substantial debate over what policies, if any, should be pursued to reduce them. – The U.S. Trade Deficit: How Much Does It Matter? | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Middle East
(Brian Katulis – Middle East Institute) The spotlight on US policy in the Middle East remains focused on talks with Iran, with a third round set for Oman this coming weekend after discussions in Rome on April 19 offered some signs of progress. But a growing humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip and the stalled efforts to safely return hostages held by Hamas, including American captive Edan Alexander, remain the biggest challenges that President Donald Trump’s administration has yet to address successfully. – Deteriorating human security in Gaza will limit Trump’s Middle East aspirations | Middle East Institute
