From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Baltic Sea, China-Philippines, Iran, Iraq-Syria, Israel-Lebanon, Middle East, Poland-European Union, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Ukraine-Circassians-Russia, USA
Baltic Sea
(Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo – Defense News) Following a series of sabotage incidents against underwater infrastructure, NATO has launched a maritime patrol mission in the Baltic Sea that will include frigates, naval drones, submarines and surveillance aircraft in a show of force against a shadowy fleet of vessels suspected of doing Moscow’s bidding. The operation, dubbed “Baltic Sentry,” will dispatch national contributions as well as joint assets to the strategically located body of water. The alliance’s Commander Task Force Baltic, created last year and based in Rostock, Germany, will be responsible for coordinating allied ships in the area, a statement issued by all eight Baltic Sea states and NATO’s Secretary General said. – NATO launches Baltic patrol mission, eyes standard for detaining ships
(Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo – Defense News) Sweden has said it will assist NATO in its efforts to bolster the alliance’s presence in the Baltic Sea by providing up to three warships and other defense equipment to help deter any potential sabotage of undersea infrastructure. The Swedish military will also contribute one of its ASC 890 surveillance aircraft, manufactured by Saab, and the country’s coast guard will deploy four ships to help patrol the area, a government statement said on Jan 12. – Sweden joins NATO push to boost Baltic Sea naval presence
China – Philippines
(Jim Gomez, Joeal Calupitan – Defense News) A Philippine security official said Tuesday that China is “pushing us to the wall” with growing aggression in the disputed South China Sea and warned that “all options are on the table” for Manila’s response, including new international lawsuits. A large Chinese coast guard ship patrolled the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal in recent days and then sailed toward the northwestern coast of the Philippines on Tuesday, coming as close as 77 nautical miles, Philippine officials said in a news conference. – China pushing Philippines ‘to the wall’ with sea aggression: Manila
Iran
(Hamdi Malik – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) After the major setbacks experienced by its so-called “axis of resistance” over the past year, the Islamic Republic stands at a crossroads, and which direction it chooses is up for debate in Tehran. The international community is worried the regime might follow North Korea’s path and consider testing a nuclear bomb to deter adversaries from contemplating an attack. The challenge for Washington is convincing Tehran that the costs of this option—both literal and existential—would be too high. – Making Iran Choose Between the Bomb and Bankruptcy | The Washington Institute
Iraq – Syria
(Omar Dhabian – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) While Iraqi fears of a resurgence of ISIS are legitimate, understanding the realities and opportunities presented with Syria’s new government while rejecting sectarian rhetoric are vital for the future of Iraq’s relationship with its neighbor. – The Iraqi Stance on Events in Syria: Between Legitimate Fears and Sectarian Rhetoric | The Washington Institute
Israel – Lebanon
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Watch a series of panels featuring senior former Israeli and Lebanese military leaders as they discuss the state of ongoing ceasefire measures along the Israeli-Lebanese border. – Lebanon Ceasefire: Status and Prospects of the Israel-Hezbollah Truce | The Washington Institute
Middle East
(Siddhant Kishore, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Annika Ganzeveld, Avery Borens, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Syria: Small pockets of locally organized, armed resistance against HTS have emerged in Syria. The expansion of such resistance would strain the bandwidth of HTS-led forces and impede any efforts to suppress this resistance.
Iraq: KRG President Nechirvan Barzani met with prominent Sunni politicians in Baghdad, which is consistent with early indications that Kurdish and Sunni parties are trying to build a political coalition ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.
Gaza Strip: Israel and Hamas made significant progress toward a ceasefire-hostage agreement. They appear to have yet to resolve disagreement over whether the IDF would withdraw from the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, however. – Iran Update, January 14, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Poland – European Union
(Janusz Bugajski – The Jamestown Foundation) On January 1, Poland took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union, emphasizing the need to strengthenEuropean security to deter Russian aggression. The Visegrád Four Group, a multi-national format to bolster Central European solidarity and security, has become redundant, with Hungary and Slovakia adopting increasingly pro-Moscow positions at odds with Poland and Czechia. Warsaw seeks to benefit from several other European regional initiatives to help pursue its agenda in the EU Presidency. – Poland Seeks More Effective Regional Formats as the Visegrád Group Fractures – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine’s future membership in NATO.
Patrushev stated that Russia’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on January 14.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has more recently introduced a sui generis interpretation of self-determination for Ukrainian territories currently under Russian occupation. It purports to re-read the UN Charter in justifying Russia’s annexations of those Ukrainian territories and potentially beyond. Trump’s team can inadvertently encourage Moscow’s intransigence by appearing to pursue peace talks as a goal in itself rather than as part of strategic vision for Europe. – Putin’s Insurmountable Preconditions for Talks With Trump On Ukraine – Jamestown
Ukraine – Circassians – Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s actions and prevent other countries from following suit, as well as to block the return of Circassians to their homeland. As a result, the Circassians are newly energized both in the homeland and the diaspora. They expect to achieve more of their goals and become an ever-more central organizing group for other non-Russians challenging Moscow’s rule – Circassian National Movement Energized by Kyiv’s Recognition of Russian Genocide – Jamestown
USA
(Alice C. Hill – Council on Foreign Relations) What is happening in Los Angeles alters not only the landscape of the nation’s second-largest city, but also who lives in it and how it does business. Loss estimates have ranged up to $150 billion, with more than ten thousand structures destroyed or damaged. An area about the size of St. Louis, Missouri, has burned. Tens of thousands of people have lost their homes. Schools, stores, restaurants, and business centers have all gone up in smoke. – After the Fires: How to Rebuild Los Angeles | Council on Foreign Relations
(Clementine G. Starling-Daniels, Theresa Luetkefend – Atlantic Council) Strategic competition is likely to intensify over the next decade, increasing the demands on the United States to deter and defend against wide-ranging and simultaneous security challenges across multiple domains and regions worldwide. In that timeframe, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Joint Force should more effectively leverage the competencies of US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to compete with US strategic adversaries. – The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete – Atlantic Council
