From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Indonesia, Israel-Lebanon, Mozambique-Islamic State, Russia-Mediterranean, Syria, USA, USA-Japan, USA-South Korea-Japan, USA-Türkiye
Indonesia
(Rania Teguh – East Asia Forum) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto caused substantial uncertainty after reversing a value-added tax (VAT) increase from 11 to 12 per cent, deciding it would only apply to luxury goods. This undermines trust in government policy and creates an unpredictable investment environment. The VAT hike was initially intended to boost state revenue and fund infrastructure and education, but the reversal could affect Indonesia’s ability to meet revenue targets and address broader inequities, with further impacts on the already shrinking middle class and slowing economic growth. – Trust wavers as Indonesia reverses VAT hike | East Asia Forum
Israel – Lebanon
(The Soufan Center) Israel and Lebanon have accused each other of systematic violations of the late November Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire as the key January 26 deadline for implementation approaches. U.S. officials have assured regional and global stakeholders that, despite violations, the accord’s key compliance benchmarks will be met. The United States has shifted aid funds from Egypt and Israel to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in recognition of how crucial their performance is to the success of the ceasefire pact. The parliament’s selection last week of LAF commander Joseph Aoun, a Hezbollah critic, as Lebanon’s new president improves the chances the ceasefire will hold over the long term. – Lebanon Ceasefire Teeters as Key Milestone Approaches – The Soufan Center
Mozambique – Islamic State
(The Soufan Center) At the start of 2025, conditions on the ground in Mozambique are deteriorating, making the situation ripe for an Islamic State revival along Africa’s southeast Swahili coast. The recent wave of post-election violence following the disputed October 2024 presidential elections threatens to exacerbate existing grievances, potentially fueling the conflict and strengthening insurgent narratives while providing an important backdrop for Islamic State fighters to expand territorial control further. The insurgency has targeted strategic resource-rich regions, such as the Palma and Mocímboa da Praia districts in Cabo Delgado, which are focal to Mozambique’s expanding liquified natural gas (LNG) industry and home to substantial investment from Western multinational corporations. The Mozambican government’s current counterterrorism approach, facilitated by Rwandan troops, risks deepening local grievances by prioritizing economic interests over addressing the root causes of conflict, undermining efforts to achieve long-term stability and further alienating affected communities. – Islamic State in Mozambique Rearing Its Head Again – The Soufan Center
Russia – Mediterranean
(Edward Black, Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI) Russia’s Mediterranean foothold faces uncertainty, with Tartus’s future hanging in the balance and alternative bases in Libya and Algeria offering limited, politically fraught substitutes. – Russia’s Options for Naval Basing in the Mediterranean After Syria’s Tartus | Royal United Services Institute
Syria
(Mohammed A. Salih – Foreign Policy Research Institute) The Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has thus far managed post-Assad Syria with relative tolerance and remarkable peacefulness. However, it faces skepticism over its jihadi roots and potential authoritarianism, warranting close scrutiny of its actions in the coming phase. Turkey benefits economically and politically from Assad’s fall, but tensions with the Kurdish-led SDF, Gulf states, Israel, and Iran highlight competing ambitions and risks of instability in Syria’s future. The United States must counter ISIS resurgence, support decentralization for Kurds and other minorities, and leverage sanctions relief and diplomatic influence to shape Syria’s transition toward pluralism and stability while managing Turkey-SDF tensions. – Post-Assad Syria: Challenges, Opportunities, and the US Role in Shaping its Future – Foreign Policy Research Institute
USA
(James MacCarthy, Jessica Richter – World Resources Institute) Wildfires have ravaged the Los Angeles area since Jan. 7, displacing tens of thousands of people and claiming at least 24 lives as of Jan. 14. The Palisades fire — the first to erupt and the least contained to date — has engulfed over 23,000 acres and devastated surrounding communities. Both the Palisades and Eaton fires rank among the deadliest and most destructive in California history. And the toll is expected to grow with more high winds on the way. – 4 Graphics Explain LA’s Rare January Fires | World Resources Institute
USA – Japan
(Kazuo Waki – East Asia Forum) Japanese and US trade and market access faces uncertainty under the incoming Trump administration. Key concerns include potential expansion of export controls on semiconductors and a shift toward unilateral action without consultation with allies. Japan’s deeper economic exposure to China also makes it particularly vulnerable to retaliation. To maintain strong collaboration, the Trump administration must ensure policy transparency, signal commitment to protecting allies and demonstrate the mutual benefits of cooperation in countering economic retaliation risks from China. – How to protect US–Japan economic cooperation under Trump 2.0 | East Asia Forum
USA – South Korea – Japan
(Jihoon Yu – ASPI The Strategist) With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency now a reality, the Indo-Pacific faces an era of heightened uncertainty driven by North Korea’s growing military capabilities and China’s expanding regional influence. In this environment, trilateral security cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan is paramount. – The US, South Korea and Japan should work together on regional challenges | The Strategist
USA – Türkiye
(Selim Koru – Foreign Policy Research Institute) The election of Donald J. Trump for a second term marks a major shift in global politics. It appears that the neoliberal era, marked by free trade and liberal political norms, has come to an end. It is difficult to predict what will come in its place, but the new era seems to be heavy on civilizational politics and economic fragmentation. One country that seems excited about the coming order is Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been governing for almost a quarter century and will likely remain in power for years to come. This paper will assess Erdoğan’s time in power, dividing Turkish foreign policy into three distinct periods: 2002 to 2012, 2013 to 2023, and the third marked by the current alignment. It will then use this as a basis for thinking about Turkish-American relations in the coming years. I will argue that, while the Erdoğan and Trump governments could find common areas in the short term, their political bases are far apart, which could create difficulties for the alliance in the medium to long run. – Reflecting on Turkish-American Relations in a Second Trump Term – Foreign Policy Research Institute
