From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Algeria-Morocco, ASEAN, Asia, China, China-North Korea-Namibia, Israel-Houthi, Jordan-Syria, Myanmar, Philippines, Russia-North Korea, United Nations, USA, USA-Indo Pacific, Global Economy
Algeria – Morocco
(Riccardo Fabiani – Crisis Group) Locked in a slow-burning diplomatic crisis with no end in sight, Algeria and Morocco approach the new year with diverging expectations and facing a modest but rising risk of accidental escalation. Rooted in Algiers’ perception of growing insecurity and Rabat’s confident and daring foreign policy, the tensions between them have risked at times triggering accidental escalation over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Mutual self-restraint and United States engagement have prevented a direct conflict from materialising, but after Donald Trump’s re-election the two sides’ perceptions are shifting again. The risk is that, with Washington unlikely to play the same calming role as before, the security repercussions of future incidents will become harder to manage, unless European governments decide to take up the role previously played by the U.S. in the region. – Algeria/Morocco: Rising Tensions and Risk of Accidental Escalation | Crisis Group
ASEAN
(Kevin Zongzhe Li – Fulcrum) Finance is critical to driving the transition to a low-carbon world. Without it, ambitious targets risk becoming empty aspirations. With it, even developing economies can grow sustainably by affordably deploying green energy, scaling breakthrough innovations, and phasing out fossil fuels. At its core, finance grounds climate action in economic development, empowering economies to climb the ladder fuelled by clean, affordable, and reliable energy solutions. In 2024, ASEAN reiterated its commitment to climate action, yet meaningful progress hinges on significant external support. – A Possible Blueprint for ASEAN’s 2025 Climate Finance Strategy | FULCRUM
Asia
(Dawud Ansari, Rosa Melissa Gehrung, Jacopo Maria Pepe – SWP) Greater Asia is emerging as a major factor in the global energy transition. This shift is associated with growing independence from external actors such as the European Union and the United States, with unfolding developments increasingly concentrated within the region itself. Key trends include the monopolisation of critical raw materials, the formation of new alliances that intersect with new value chain interdependencies, and the adoption of innovative technologies like small modular nuclear reactors. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and crises have the potential to reshape the region and its energy transition. To remain relevant and effective in Asia, Germany and the EU need to ensure that their engagement is constructive and attuned. – The Geopolitics of the Energy Transition in Greater Asia – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
China
(Prahlad Kumar Singh – Centre for Air Power Studies) On December 18, 2024, the US Department of Defense (DoD) released its annual report on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”. Also known as the China Military Power Report, it is released by the US DoD in order to assess the current and future trends and capabilities of military-technological development of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) since the year 2000. This paper examines the report for the nuclear dimensions of China’s military modernisation. The report mentions that China is continuously modernising, diversifying and expanding its nuclear force. It estimates that China has surpassed 600 operational warheads in 2024 and is projected to get over 1000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. In the previous report in May 2023, the estimate was 500 nuclear warheads. – Pentagon’s Annual China Report from Nuclear Prism – CAPS India
China – North Korea – Namibia
(Jayita Sarkar – Lawfare) When the Biden White House released its readout of the president’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping back in November 2024, North Korea was mentioned merely once, in the context of North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Ukraine. The second Trump administration that takes office might have a wholly different relationship with Moscow, but North Korea is likely to remain as a burr in its hide. Pyongyang’s unique ability to leverage both Beijing and Moscow while augmenting its nuclear weapons, delivery systems, and fissile material stockpile makes it distinctive as an adversary that necessitates a bipartisan response from U.S. policymakers. The Project 2025 playbook, the policy blueprint of the second Trump administration, highlights the threat posed by China and North Korea but does not connect the two issues. A closer look at Chinese-North Korean relations reveals long-standing collaboration that has ensured that the North Korean government continues to get materials and revenue to develop its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, despite international sanctions. One such critical material is uranium, the necessary raw material for North Korea’s nuclear weapons stockpile – Cutting North Korea’s Access to Chinese-Controlled African Uranium | Lawfare
Israel – Houthi
(April Longley Alley, Ph.D. – United States Institute of Peace) Since Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, Yemen’s Houthis have regularly attacked Israel, joining its fellow members of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” in solidarity with Hamas. Not only have they fired missiles and drones at Israel, but the Houthis have also disrupted commercial shipping by attacking ships in the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest maritime trade arteries. The pace of its attacks on Israel ramped up significantly in December, as have Israeli responses. Just this morning, Israel claimed responsibility for airstrikes on Yemeni territory. – Israel-Houthi Tensions Heat Up – What’s Next? | United States Institute of Peace
Jordan – Syria
(Ofir Winter – INSS) The overthrow of the regime in Syria presents Jordan with an array of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Hashemite Kingdom is worried about instability on its northern border, the possibility that Iranian influence will be replaced by a Turkish one, and the export of Islamist revolutionary fervor from Syria to Jordan. On the other hand, it recognizes an opportunity to block the drug and arms smuggling routes between Syria and Jordan, return the Syrian refugees in Jordan to their homeland, and promote economic cooperation with its neighbor. Thus, Jordan is seeking to become a key player in shaping the character of the new Syria while leveraging its geostrategic advantages. Israel and Jordan share a range of common interests on the Syrian front, which require both countries to increase coordination. If the new regime in Syria stabilizes, Jordan could be a vital diplomatic bridge between Damascus and Israel. In contrast, if Syria continues to suffer from instability and if threats from Syrian soil against Israel and Jordan intensify, Jerusalem and Amman would do well to tighten cooperation on intelligence and security issues. – A Pivotal Player: Jordan and the New Syria | INSS
Myanmar
(Kyaw Htet Aung – Fulcrum) On 21 December 2024, the Arakan Army (AA) seized the Myanmar military’s Western Command in Ann Township in Rakhine State. The Western Command was the military’s second regional command to fall into the Ethnic Armed Organisation’s (EAO) hands in 2024. The Myanmar military lost the Northeastern Command in Lashio to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in August 2024. The AA’s capture of the Western Command and 14 townships in Rakhine State may well constitute a “Victory 2.0” for the AA and its administrative arm, the United Arakan League (ULA). This marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the country’s civil war. – Arakan Army’s Victory 2.0 in Myanmar: A New Order for Rakhine? | FULCRUM
Philippines
(JC Punongbayan – Fulcrum) If you have ever been to Manila lately, chances are you fell victim to its nightmarish traffic. Things are about to get worse unless the Philippine government implements bold and urgent reforms to steer the country away from overly car-centric policies and infrastructure projects. According to Tomtom, a global traffic index, it took 25.5 minutes on average to travel 10 kilometers in Manila in 2023. This was the longest travel time among 387 metro areas worldwide, and the 50-second increase from 2022 is also the worst jump among all metro areas included in the index. Each day, the estimated cost of traffic in Metro Manila is PHP3.5 billion (about US$60 million), according to a 2018 study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency. With the status quo, this figure is expected to rise to PHP5.4 billion (US$92 million) by 2035. – Philippines’ Car-Centric Society: Time to Switch Lanes | FULCRUM
Russia – North Korea
(Valérie Niquet – FRS) Le 23 octobre 2024, lors du premier sommet des ministres de la Défense des pays du G7, le Secrétaire d’État à la Défense, Lloyd Austin, a confirmé que la Corée du Nord se préparait à envoyer plusieurs milliers de soldats en Russie. D’après le ministère sud-coréen de la Défense, 3 000 soldats nord-coréens seraient déjà présents sur le territoire russe. Cet envoi de troupes représente une étape supplémentaire dans la coopération militaire entre Moscou et Pyongyang, laquelle a été officialisée par la signature d’un partenariat stratégique au cours de la visite de Vladimir Poutine en Corée du Nord en juin 2024. Ce tournant dans les relations bilatérales s’accompagne d’une intensification des tirs de missiles par la Corée du Nord à l’approche des élections présidentielles aux États-Unis. En particulier, le 30 octobre 2024, la Corée du Nord a procédé à l’essai d’un missile intercontinental, le premier depuis décembre 2023. Ce missile à carburant solide, qui a parcouru une distance de 7 000 kilomètres – supérieure à celle des tirs précédents –, pourrait indiquer un renforcement de la coopération technologique avec la Russie, impliquant un progrès significatif en matière de motorisation. – L’axe stratégique Russie-Corée du Nord : une évaluation :: Programme Japon :: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique :: FRS
United Nations
(Crisis Group) With blue-helmet deployments shrinking, and facing political and financial headwinds, it may seem that the heyday of multilateral peacekeeping is over. But at UN headquarters in New York, the discussions about the subject are not quite so fatalistic. – Fresh Thinking about Peace Operations at the UN | Crisis Group
USA
(Reema Bzeih, Sam Ricketts, Shannon Baker-Branstetter – Center for American Progress) State climate action has never been more important. Donald Trump’s reelection to the White House, and his administration’s stated intention to stall and reverse federal climate and clean energy policies, means it is even more imperative that states lead the way on climate. A majority of the American people know that climate change is real and harms the nation, and they want the government to do something about it. And a majority support expanding access to clean energy, rather than more fossil fuels. However, starting in January, the Trump administration could work in the opposite direction. – States Must Lead the Way on Climate – Center for American Progress
(Chicago Council on Global Affairs) Donald Trump’s expansionist rhetoric toward Canada, Greenland, and Panama reflects his “America First” doctrine and risks violating international law, alienating allies, and deepening global tensions. How serious is he? Meanwhile, tech titans Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg stir misinformation controversies. What does Musk hope to gain by targeting European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with unverified allegations? And what impact will Meta’s decision to discontinue third-party fact-checking have on democracy? – Trump’s Expansionist Ambitions and Tech Titans’ Disruptions | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
USA – Indo Pacific
(Shihoko Goto, Michael Kugelman, Lucas Myers, Kayla Orta, and Troy Stangarone – Wilson Center) The United States enters 2025 facing an increasingly insecure world. Locked into intensifying great power competition with China, the United States is now in a new, increasingly unfavorable, international environment. But, at the beginning of President Donald Trump’s second term, the United States has an opportunity to hit the reset button in the most critical region, the Indo-Pacific, and redefine its strategy to win the long-term competition for leadership and protect US interests in the region. – Hitting the Reset Button in the Indo-Pacific | Wilson Center
Global Economy
(Pew Research Center) A new Pew Research Center survey of 36 nations finds widespread public concern about economic inequality. And when asked what leads to this inequality, most people across the countries surveyed point to the intersection of wealth and politics. –Economic Inequality Seen as Major Challenge Around the World | Pew Research Center
