From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China, China-Nepal, China-Pakistan-Afghanistan, China-Southeast Asia, China-Taiwan, India-France, India-USA, Middle East, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Solomon Islands, Global Economy
China
(Kazimier Lim – Lowy The Interpreter) To ring in the new year, China’s homegrown jet, the C919 – nicknamed “daifeiji” (大飞机), or “Great Airplane” – took its first regularly scheduled passenger flight outside the Chinese mainland. The new daily route, linking Shanghai Hongqiao and Hong Kong, has been hailed by Beijing as a landmark milestone in showcasing the C919 to the world. Until now, the aircraft had flown exclusively on domestic routes operated by Chinese state-owned airlines. – The great leap skyward: China’s jetliner dreams are getting real | Lowy Institute
(ThinkChina) The Yangtze River Delta area, first comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang then later expanding to include Anhui, has clear-cut advantages in scientific and technological innovation. But the area also faces several challenges. EAI senior research fellow Yu Hong observes that excessive competition among cities and provinces within the region remains a pressing issue. – Can the Yangtze River Delta area remain the economic anchor of China? [Eye on JiangZheHu series]
China – Nepal
(Hari Bansh Jha – Vivekananda International Foundation) The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China is its global endeavour that aims at promoting connectivity through the development of infrastructure facilities in different corners of the world, including in Asia, Africa, and Europe. In South Asia, Nepal signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with China in 2017, but then none of China’s projects could be launched in the country under the BRI. In an important development, however, the present government of Nepal under Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli signed the BRI agreement to implement BRI projects in the country. – Decoding China’s BRI Agreement with Nepal | Vivekananda International Foundation
China – Pakistan – Afghanistan
(ThinkChina) The diverging approaches of China and Pakistan to the Taliban in Afghanistan is straining bilateral ties and creating greater challenges for Pakistan in its traditional backyard, says academic Ghulam Ali. – Afghanistan: The new fault line in China-Pakistan relations?
China – Southeast Asia
(ThinkChina) In the year ahead, says ISEAS researcher Lye Liang Fook, China’s focus on strengthening ties with Southeast Asia looks set to continue or may even be stepped up especially with more turbulence in the US-China relationship expected on the horizon. – China and Southeast Asia: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible visits in 2025
China – Taiwan
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) The West had better think carefully about how it would handle China imposing a nominally civil quarantine on Taiwan, because that’s the tactic that increasingly looks like an opening move for Beijing in taking control of the island. A quarantine, imposing limited controls on access to the island, offered strong advantages for China even before Taiwan said in October that a blockade, surrounding it with forces to cut off all access, would be an act of war. Taiwan’s statement means China is even more likely to choose quarantine as a first step. This use of the word ‘quarantine’ was coined in an important Center for Strategic and International Studies report last year. The authors foresaw that the Chinese government might ban only certain types of goods from entering Taiwan, or it could forbid ships from using a certain port. The measures would be enforced by nominally non-military forces, such as the China Coastguard. – Limited quarantine is China’s likely first move in subduing Taiwan | The Strategist
India – France
(Harshit Prajapati – ASPI The Strategist) India’s defence industry is benefiting from the country’s switch away from Russia and towards France for weapons acquisition. India and France have cooperated on several key defence projects, such as Kalvari-class submarines, the Chetak and Cheetah helicopters and the Shakti helicopter engine. These projects involved technology transfer to India under licensed production from French companies. – India’s defence industry is benefiting from cooperation with France | The Strategist
India – USA
(East Asia Forum) In elections in 2024, discontent over jobs and inequality in different ways checked the mandate of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and returned Donald Trump to power in the United States. Though the Modi government has made some efforts to address India’s jobs shortage, its structural economic issues are yet to be solved. With the return of Trump and his ‘America First policy’ which threatens the international economic order, India’s economic priorities are best served by resisting the temptation to make bilateral deals with Washington and positioning itself instead to defend the rules-based trading order. – India, positioned to manage a Trump world | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(Katherine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, and Nicholas Carl . Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days. This activity reflects Iranian concerns about a possible US or Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities. – West Bank: Fatah released a statement affirming that it will prevent any Hamas effort to stoke conflict against Israel in the West Bank. – Iran Update, January 12, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) The Ukrainian General staff reported on January 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision airstrike on the command post of Russia’s 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA] (Central Military District) in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast. – South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed that Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers during combat operations in Kursk Oblast on January 9. – Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Solomon Islands
(Sheridan Ward – Lowy The Interpreter) Solomon Islands is one of 26 nations in the world without a standing military. Yet the Pacific nation is also one of only two non-militarised countries – alongside Haití – to experience armed conflict. Solomon Islands offers a cautionary tale of the risks that gun importation can bring, and the value of pursuing disarmament as a tool for promoting peace. Holding caches of weaponry in the country can be fraught with risk. During the period known as “The Tensions” from 1998–2003, stolen weapons raided from police armouries contributed significantly to the escalation of armed violence between the Malaita Eagle Force (MEF) and the Isatabu Freedom Movement (IFM). – The case to keep guns out of police hands in Solomon Islands | Lowy Institute
Global Economy
(Anil Kumar Kanungo – Vivekananda International Foundation) As we enter the second quarter of 21st century after witnessing a series of unprecedented crises starting with dot com bubble, global financial crisis, high inflation, crypto currency challenges, Covid-19, Ukraine war, Gaza conflict and re-elect of Trump, world economy continues to face the most persistent challenge of experiencing low economic growth. Developed economies are expected to grow less than 3% in coming years (World Bank), increasing the risk of hunger and poverty globally and large economies like Brazil, Argentina and South Africa will face sluggish growth. – Headwinds that Continue to Threaten World Economy | Vivekananda International Foundation
